Time to post my bowl card so far

Navy -1/42/Under 46
Troy -7.5/55.5/Under 62.5 (troy teaser as well)
Wky -5/47/Under 52/Under 52 (small)
Oregon -7/61/Played Oregon and the Over both on gut angles (should be punished)
CSU -7.5/61/CSU -5.5
Arkansas St -4/72/Over 62 large
fau -20/66/over 61.5
smu -7/73/smu -5
usf -7/67/usf -2.5 (large)
Hou -3/45/Under 50
Utah -9/58/Utah 6 pt teaser
Missouri -1/67/Over 60.5
Washington State -6/47/WSU -3
0/0/usc 7 (not fully capped-had to play pr)
Memphis -3/71/Over 65
auburn -20/68/Auburn -9.5
bama -4/50/Bama -2.5
Temple -6/60/over 55.5
ohio -8/54 waiting for halftime
wyo -3.5/49/wyoming -1 over 45
Toledo -5.5/66.5/appst and over
sdsu -14/54/sdsu and over
duke -1/47/niu 5
UCLA -1/58/Under 64.5
iowa -3.5/53/over 46
stanford/tcu pick/44/under 49
okst -6.5/65/osu -4
ncsu -9.5/58.5/ncst -6 -115
wash/psu pick/52/under 55
mich -11/45/ nothing yet.
uga/ok pick/56/Under 60

soft cap
fsu -17/51
tosu -5.5/64

uncapped
purdue/zona
uk/nw
ville/msu
nd/lsu (thought hard about it but haven’t capped it all)
tamu/wake
uva/navy
 
Camelia Bowl

link video

Played in Montgomery, Alabama

MTSU vs Arkansas State

Location -- tiniest of edges to MTSU

Looks like the university invested in this bowl to a degree and the coach bought tickets for people to attend if they make the 4 hour drive to Montgomery. Slightly longer drive for Arkansas State but not much. Don't think this plays a huge factor.

Athletes/conference/SOS: Neutral

I don't think there is much difference between the conference talent, the historical athletic talent of these two programs or the overall athletic talent that these two teams place on the field this year. It will be execution, scheme, motivation, matchups that determine this outcome. It certainly won't be about an athlete discrepancy. The two teams both played weak schedules due to the conferences they play in with MTSU having the slightly more difficult schedule but with Arkansas State performing a little better vs their schedule.

Motivation-- Neutral

This is extremely difficult to gauge but my general feeling is that both teams are motivated to play. MTSU pulls a rabbit out of the hat to get to a bowl, have a father/son coach/qb combo in a situation where the father bought tickets up front for the student body and who legitimately appear happy to be bowl bound after a season where they were decimated by injuries. On the flip side, you have an Arkansas State team that should be angry and ready to play after somehow losing a game where they piled up over 600 yards and lost because of RZ execution and a very, very late score by Troy.
Key Injuries: Small edge MTSU
Ark State - In November the wolves lost a player at each level of the defense, of varying talent and playing time. Ellis-Brewer in the secondary, Chambers at linebacker and Carbonell at DL. While none of these are injuries that I would call particularly huge in and of themselves, the cumulative effect could be a negative for Ark St. defensively. The offense is healthy.
MTSU - WR R. James was lost multiple times during the year and is out for the bowl with a shoulder injury. Pretty effective receiver when he was on the field. Defense is fairly healthy.
MTSU struggled with injuries this year but when looking at recent weeks of their team they are fairly healthy with that group. So when you look at injuries in the context of the year, they are at least healthier than normal. The key here is Stockstill at QB and we will look at that later.
Coaching-- small edge MTSU
I give Stockstill the edge here, though his teams sometimes lack discipline in their bowl games.
Special teams -- Neutral
Both teams cover punts well, both teams have a couple kick blocks, a small edge to arkansas state against the MTSU kickoff coverage which could come into play if mtsu is scoring, but nothing major. FG doesn't appear to be a big enough difference to warrant too much discussion either and same with the punting itself. I feel any advantage a team gets from special teams in this game will be fairly random.
Pace -- With Stockstill I expect to see a lot of plays.
Ark st rush o vs mtsu rush d
MTSU played some really bad rush offenses facing the 130th, 128th, 122nd, 104th, 82nd, 69th, 66th , 65th, 64th, 49th,37th, 6th. Ark St is 77th.
 
too swamped .. too dazed by medication and too tired to finish this write up. told you that was the case yesterday or the day before. sorry.
 
dickydunn said:
playing devils advocate for a minute. i think the ped state defense is overrated because they don’t face decent qbs. they schedule charmin soft in the non con and the b10 has dreadful qb play. get them away from creepy valley or against a capable qb and it gets rough

usc’s 52 points last year is still their highest total in the past 38 games. darnold had 453 yards passing (his career high)

ohio state scored 39 and jt barrett had 328 yards (season best)

sparty scored 27 and lewerke had 400 yards (season 2nd best)

nebraska’s 44 points is their highest in 22 games and tanner lee had 399 yards (season 2nd best)

campbell sucks. apke isn’t a d1 player. #2 is a hitter but can’t cover. haley is the only decent one. brent pry will zone and browning should pick them apart. i’ll be on the uw tt o


37959BE900000578-0-image-m-118_1472156650819.jpg


we are...... a fucking cult
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The JT one is disturbing but lewerke threw 56 times while the team was held under 100 rushing in that game, they were up 42 - 10 on Neb and so neb went with passing so they had 41 attempts. washington has good ypa and bad total passing yard numbers, which means they are run first all the way and I like psu to shut that down some. Washington should not have a ton of problems with psu offense either in my estimation. thanks for thoughts. at least when I lose, I can smile and say that you won.
 
I haven't played a tease all year, SO . . . . .
I took your Troy and paired it with San Diego St
Have Fun
 
What do you think about that Oregon-Boise over? Seems like the best unit for Boise is their D while their O can underperform from time-to-time. I'm guessing you just expect Oregon to do most of the heavy lifting?
 
s--k said:
What do you think about that Oregon-Boise over? Seems like the best unit for Boise is their D while their O can underperform from time-to-time. I'm guessing you just expect Oregon to do most of the heavy lifting?
Click to expand...

Yes. I think Boise plays to win too. Decent WR they can use to generate some big plays maybe if they fall behind. I think we can see Oregon reach high thirties to mid forties a good portion of the time here and those game dynamics should coattail Boise into some pts. My hard numbers don't support the over or under, or Oregon. So that game is one I deserve to lose money on probably. My gut plays traditionally suck.
 
I assume you like this Ducks team total I just took as well, can't imagine there's any lack of offense from them even without Freeman
 
I do kj

ADD

UNT/Troy 2h under 30.5

some fear that the offenses find themselves in the second half through adjustments but right now the game is playing out just like i thought other than turnovers and converted opportunities when they arise. Under 400 yards that half, so the point production is comical. Some fear of too many plays too but this is worth it
 
Amazing to win the oregon/boise total and the arkst/mtsu total and lose the unt/troy totals.

I feel bad for anyone backing all the unders these days. Seems near impossible to cash them.
 
To give you an idea about how hard these things are to handicap.

Marshall Season High Yards Per Play - 6.63. Bowl Game 7.71
Oregon Season Low Yards Per Play in games Herbert played - 5.87 Bowl Game 4.38
Arkansas State Season Low Yards Per Play - 4.68 (second worst 4.91) Bowl Game 4.76

A lot of best game of the year or worst game of the year tend to happen in these Bowls
 
vk said:
To give you an idea about how hard these things are to handicap.

Marshall Season High Yards Per Play - 6.63. Bowl Game 7.71
Oregon Season Low Yards Per Play in games Herbert played - 5.87 Bowl Game 4.38
Arkansas State Season Low Yards Per Play - 4.68 (second worst 4.91) Bowl Game 4.76

A lot of best game of the year or worst game of the year tend to happen in these Bowls
Click to expand...
True. Very true.

Two of them are explainable imo.

Oregon plays in a soft-ass conference. They played a real good defense yesterday. We've seen that offense struggle at times in bowl games(maybe not the whole game) when faced against a real defense. The Pac12 defenses were not walking through that door yesterday. And as you know, the margin of that game should have been around 30 or so.

Marshall is an under the radar team this year that steadily improved imo. They got to play a dumpster fire of a defense in Colly State and their 501 yards attests to that. Now, as someone who had Marshall tt I was merely thinking around 400 yards and I am way good but the extra helped.
 
colly state defense was laughable and they certainly had off the field distractions and maybe Marshall was improving (apparently so) but they averaged 331 yards per game in their last 4 games and had over 500 in the bowl. And as bad as CSU defense is, the Marshall opponents were not exactly the 85 bears. It was over 150% greater yardage output than their average over the last 4 and more than a 100 yards more than any game in their last 4. So recency/improvement doesn't support it. Good call. Their points were not a fluke by any stretch, they just destroyed the CSU defense. When money started pouring in on Marshall, I couldn't figure out why the total wasn't dropping. You found an easy winner, and I cannot find it, even afterwards. Not slamming anyone who did a better job than i did or can do. Just saying it ain't easy.
 
As for Oregon, it looks like they are just Boise States bitch. They cannot get over the hump against them .. boise is 3-0 now against them?, all in the last decade and they have been shutdown by them before so maybe they have the blueprint. The RB being out for Oregon only hurt them mentally, if anything as there was absolutely no holes to run through. Just Boise dominating the line of scrimmage. I do think that one was possible to see. I thought Oregon would be the most motivated Pac12 team of the bowl season. I hope I was wrong given I have several other Pac12 teams. I thought they looked flat but you can also just look flat because you are getting your ass beat. To lose 0.1 units with Oregon and Over in that game is like walking into a crack house in an unfamiliar town with $2,200 bucks and walking out of the room having only gotten $200 stolen from you with your health still intact. It was a miracle.


Moreover ... ..look at this ridiculousness from yesterday:

boise/ore 756 yards 66 pts
Troy/unt 730 yards 80pts (is that even possible?)
arkst/mtsu 814 yards 65 pts

under backers got screwed in a major way.
 
B.A.R. said:
Nice start to the postseason by the way...

Much deserved 60% with a 'big bet' winner.
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Thanks. Had a good start but the last couple days are shake my head affairs on some of these. I soured on CSU and was hoping to get lucky but of course not. I have the results overall that I should have, getting bs wins with the oregon over and the ark st over and bullshit losses on the troy und and troy 2h und affairs.

At least the first leg of that teaser is in.
 
I just have to wonder who the hell is coaching the Ark St. QB, for him to continue to not throw the ball away was ridiculous. He literally had pigeon shit on his helmet. That game was really painful to watch.
 
Timh said:
I just have to wonder who the hell is coaching the Ark St. QB, for him to continue to not throw the ball away was ridiculous. He literally had pigeon shit on his helmet. That game was really painful to watch.
Click to expand...

He was so bad. At least one of his bungles resulted in a defensive score. Their scheme is hard to watch anyway. Bubble bubble bubble defense inches up fade, bubble bubble bubble slant. Yawn
 
And refs were all on the over which always helps. Some of the worst PI calls you will ever see and that is saying something. Nice to benefit from that crap.

Felt bad for the arkst kid who celebrated his sack record only for it to be taken away.

The game I found frustrating was troy v unt. Felt it went like I thought it would and somehow had 80 pts.
 
I mean that arkst total was badly capped by me. I had it at 72 ....no way it should have reached 54.
 
[QUOTE="vk, post: 3215063, member: 1269"

The game I found frustrating was troy v unt. Felt it went like I thought it would and somehow had 80 pts.[/QUOTE]
Really sucks when Troy is bombing, up 20 with less than 6 min to play.
 
vk said:
And refs were all on the over which always helps. Some of the worst PI calls you will ever see and that is saying something. Nice to benefit from that crap.

Felt bad for the arkst kid who celebrated his sack record only for it to be taken away.

The game I found frustrating was troy v unt. Felt it went like I thought it would and somehow had 80 pts.
Click to expand...
One of if not the worst refereed games I have ever watched. The PI calls were ridiculous and MTSU seemingly got screwed on every call. I'm trying to figure out how they were the underdog in that game, were clearly better and if not for the bad ref job and some drops they would have really rolled.
 
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Timh said:
One of if not the worst refereed games I have ever watched. The PI calls were ridiculous and MTSU seemingly got screwed on every call. I'm trying to figure out how they were the underdog in that game, were clearly better and if not for the bad ref job and some drops they would have really rolled.
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It was hard to analyze the mtsu rush D heading in. Good numbers vs crappy rushing teams and some uglies vs good. Thought ark st could run better than they did (though this was not a good version of arkst teams in terms of running the ball). If they play 100 times, mtsu wins a lot more than 50 of them.

Easier to see that this morning though.
 
booksbestfriend said:
[QUOTE="vk, post: 3215063, member: 1269"

The game I found frustrating was troy v unt. Felt it went like I thought it would and somehow had 80 pts.
Click to expand...
Really sucks when Troy is bombing, up 20 with less than 6 min to play.[/QUOTE]
I felt when Arky State called that last timeout, they were going deep. Even a gimmick play entered my mind. Once they got it to the 10, they were going to reward the kids with a score. 80pts and half of it came on garbage. Fine was clueless out their
 
vk said:
Add

Kstate/Ucla under 64.5

How is kstate going to move it against that front seven of ucla? just kidding.
Click to expand...
Are you banking on KSt running, huddling, and not running again until under 10/sec on play clock? Basically, boring UCLA to death.
 
tough UCLA front seven will dominate the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, without quality QB play, UCLA will not be able to exploit any weaknesses in the Kstate secondary. The UCLA defense will be auditioning for Chip and the offense will be distracted by the coaching change. Some fear Kstate just throws it all over UCLA and some fear the UCLA run game breaks off too many chunk runs. All the turnovers are going to happen in the red zone. At 31-24, with UCLA leading on third and one with 1:32 left and Kstate out of timeouts, Rosen will be intercepted for a TD to make it 31-30 and Kstate will go for two.
 
Should I be concerned about the coaching change at SMU. I played at -4 -101 which indicates some money has come in on the LT side. ?
 
I think it is a concern, Bull. Add it to the list of concerns when backing a team that has the anti-"it" factor like SMU. They find a way to not be as good as they should be as it is.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Are you banking on KSt running, huddling, and not running again until under 10/sec on play clock? Basically, boring UCLA to death.
Click to expand...

Yes. I think both teams have faced superior offenses over the course of the season. Kstate should run with success and should be the more focused team. With the coaching change, I think pace might be hindered slightly for the game when UCLA has the ball and so between the two, I think maybe we have a lower play game than these teams get on the regular. Fear is the big play.

No one enjoyed my earlier response?
 
vk said:
Yes. I think both teams have faced superior offenses over the course of the season. Kstate should run with success and should be the more focused team. With the coaching change, I think pace might be hindered slightly for the game when UCLA has the ball and so between the two, I think maybe we have a lower play game than these teams get on the regular. Fear is the big play.

No one enjoyed my earlier response?
Click to expand...

It was perfect. I'm sure the game will play out just like that.
Alternate ending, penalty on the 2pt and they kick to tie and go into ot
 
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