UNT Pass vs Troy Pass D : Small Edge North Texas
Troy's pass defense is very average statistically, whether you look at yards per game, yards per attempt or even opposing quarterback rating. Given their schedule, that isn't too great but you also have to factor in they led by double digits in roughly 8 of their games this year heading into halftime (possible angle incidentally). Where the Troy team has been really good is in forcing interceptions, averaging 1.25 picks per game, which is kind of a big deal given Mason Fine has thrown 13 himself this year. UNT, not surprisingly given their coaching staff, believes in spreading out the defense horizontally and throwing short to mid range passes to a wide variety of players. They rank 21st nationally in passing and despite their weak schedule, the pass defenses faced were a pretty decently mixed group of quality and horrible. Meaning, I think their pass game is fairly efficient and the 21st rankng in passing is not a product of their weak schedule. UNT despite the short passing game strategy, was still top ten in the country on pass plays greater than 40 yards. Troy, like almost everything else with their pass D, is average when it comes to defending big plays. North Texas has been sacked a lot this year but if you eliminate their championship game performance (where Fine held the ball too long, presumably because the receivers were covered - I watched every snap and he had time to throw but got sacked an ungodly number of times- ) they were actually fairly average when it comes to sacks allowed. Without digging more intensely it is hard to figure out the nature of them .. Fine scrambles a lot and holds the ball too longm sometimes because he doesn't have a window with his height but at the same time, the system is for short to intermediate quick passing which should limit sacks. So I view their pass protect as average. I do think the loss of their best offensive player (assuming he doesn't play) effects their passing game. Overall, I think UNT gets some passing yards in this game but I think we could see some continued struggles with Fine having consistency which is what is needed to drive the field in their short passing game. Incidentally, Troy has been great at getting sacks but again, they have been leading by DD at a lot of the halftimes, making that an easier proposition.
UNT rush O vs. Troy rush D-- Large Edge Troy
UNT rush offense was pretty good this year with Wilson leading the way averaging 6.5 yards a carry and 16 TD's. The problem is that he is out and the rush offense has sputtered since that happened. And the real problem here with regards to their rush offense is that they played extremely weak rush defenses. yards per carry defenses faced were ranked 31, 37, 51, 51 (played the two teams tied at 51), 70, 83, 89, 91, 104, 107, 118 (sigh). Troy is 7th in this category and with wilson out, I just don't see UNT running for any kind of consistency at all. I think Troy gave up over 4 yards per carry to one team all year, LSU. I do think there is an outside chance that the UNT coaching staff is smart enough to not waste much time trying to run the ball and I think there is a decent chance UNT is behind early again, both of which could mitigate this edge some but make no mistake, Troy should be able to make UNT one dimensional and when UNT is one dimensional, Fine takes sacks.
Troy rush O vs. UNT rush D-- neutral
I think the UNT overall rush defense for most of their games is not too bad(pretty bad). The problem is that they quite occassionally give up the really big play in the rushing game. If you saw any of the FAU game, you would think UNT is horrible (they rank 104 so the argument could be made effectively) but I don't think Troy is anywhere near the imaginative team in the running game that FAU is right now. Troy, simply put, is not a very good running team. It isn't what they do best and I don't think we see them just ram it consistently down North Texas throat in this game. I think this is especially important in terms of the total as I think Troy leads most of the game. As we hit the fourth, the combination of a not so great rush offense vs a not so great rush defense is a pretty good one for running clock in that Troy is not likely to get the big run plays that one fears for the late score but UNT is weak enough that Troy could get the necessary first down to kill the game.
Troy pass O vs. UNT pass D - Medium to Large Edge Troy
This is the big hope for over backers and the big fear for under backers. Troy has been very solid passing the ball and while they have a couple of injuries that effect depth, they aren't key enough to warrant too much fear of a big drop off. UNT conversely has a statistically average pass defense but I think it is worse than that given the fact that they gave up big yards when faced against quality passing games like FAU and SMU and that the fact that they faced a lot of really bad pass offenses (including three of the worst twelve in the nation)
Pace: Another fear for the total could be the pace. The combination of the mean green having the ability to give up big plays defensively, not having their star rb vs a solid rush D creating the temptation to over-pass in play calling, the possibility Troy rewards Silvers with passes and the possibility per the current line that UNT will be behind can make for a game where the unt faster pace outweighs the Troy pace numbers. And UNT has shown multiple times that they are not going to quit in games.
So the smilies checklist looks something like this:
Location - Troy
Athletes - Troy
Motivation - Neutral
Impact Injuries/Suspension/Sitting - Troy
Coaching- North Texas
Strength of schedule/conference -Troy
Special teams - North Texas
UNT pass O vs. Troy pass d - North Texas
UNT rush O vs. Troy rush D - Troy
Troy rush O vs. UNT rush d - Neutral
Troy pass O vs. UNT pass d -Troy
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The plays:
Troy/UNT Under the posted total
Troy first leg of a 6 pt teaser with Utah Utes
I think we have a situation where both teams are going to be fairly one dimensional. When they do run, I think it could potentially lead to down and distance issues. Troy defense is pretty solid and I think their Defensive line does a decent job against UNT pass protect. After last game vs FAU I look for UNT to continue to be horizontal in their attack, trying to get FIne to release ball early to avoid sacks. Without the threat of Wilson at RB, I think this will be challenging for UNT to drive the field and consistently convert third downs for scores against Troy. Troy should have more opportunities against a lesser UNT defense, though I expect them to need to pass as well. UNT more apt to give up big plays and despite what individual statistics you might want to point at, Silvers > Fine and he is a Senior. In addition, I think fine is more likely to throw the interception to either steal pts from his team or give them to Troy. In most scenarios that I see, Troy is leading but I don't have a ton of fear of the march and score from Troy rushing the football, making add-on pts less likely. I made Troy 7.5 and the total 55.5, placing the value of the game in a clear spot for myself. Most of the advantages for Troy appear to be fairly minor but their Rush defense, pass rush and advantages vs the unt secondary, should give them enough advantages to win the game by roughly the margin of the current line. I teased Troy down Wong style and took the under. Those betting late may have a superior play with the UNT team total under.
In most bowl games, it is important to cap to the straight up winner. I believe there is strong historical evidence pointing to the points not mattering as much. The dogs that cover tend to win outright. I think this is a challenging game for UNT given they shouldn't have any motivational edges (used to be in same conference) and are clearly the lesser team in my eyes, even if not grotesquely so.
