Thursday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Thursday, August 14, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>1:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>951</TD><TD width=160>San Francisco Giants </TD><TD width=130>K Correia -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>952 </TD><TD width=160>Houston Astros </TD><TD width=130>B Moehler -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>2:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>953</TD><TD width=160>Arizona Diamondbacks </TD><TD width=130>D Haren -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>954 </TD><TD width=160>Colorado Rockies </TD><TD width=130>G Rusch -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>2:35 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>955</TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>B Sheets -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-230</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>956 </TD><TD width=160>San Diego Padres </TD><TD width=130>J Peavy -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+190</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>6½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>957</TD><TD width=160>Cincinnati Reds </TD><TD width=130>J Cueto -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-185</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>958 </TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>I Snell -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>959</TD><TD width=160>Chicago Cubs </TD><TD width=130>T Lilly -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>960 </TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>T Glavine -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>961</TD><TD width=160>St Louis Cardinals </TD><TD width=130>T Wellemeyer -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>962 </TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>S Olsen -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>963</TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>OL Perez -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>964 </TD><TD width=160>Washington Nationals </TD><TD width=130>C Balester -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+135</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>965</TD><TD width=160>Philadelphia Phillies </TD><TD width=130>B Myers -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>966 </TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>H Kuroda -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>12:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>967</TD><TD width=160>Toronto Blue Jays </TD><TD width=130>J Litsch -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>968 </TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>A Galarraga -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>2:35 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>971</TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>J Shields -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>7½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>972 </TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>S Gallagher -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>973</TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>D Cabrera -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>974 </TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>Z Jackson -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>975</TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>T Hunter -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+240</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>976 </TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>D Matsuzaka -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-280</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>1:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at Detroit
Umpire: Jim Reynolds
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Litsch
A Galarraga
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Kansas City at C. White Sox
Umpire: Dan Iassogna
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Davies
?
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Tampa Bay at Oakland
Umpire: James Hoye
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Shields
S Gallagher
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Texas at Boston
Umpire: Scott Barry
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Hunter
D Matsuzaka
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Baltimore at Cleveland
Umpire: Marvin Hudson
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Cabrera
Z Jackson
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Francisco at Houston
Umpire: Jerry Layne
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>K Correia
B Moehler
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Arizona at Colorado
Umpire: Sam Holbrook
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Haren
G Rusch
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>3:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Milwaukee at San Diego
Umpire: Mike Everitt
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Sheets
J Peavy
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Umpire: Paul Emmel
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Cueto
I Snell
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>St. Louis at Florida
Umpire: Ted Barrett
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Wellemeyer
S Olsen
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Washington
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>O Perez
C Balester
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at Atlanta
Umpire: CB Bucknor
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>T Lilly
T Glavine
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
Umpire: Jim Joyce
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>B Myers
H Kuroda
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Baltimore's last 43 games of offense -

11, 2, 9, 2, 5, 7, 5, 7, 10, 3, 10, 6, 8, 5, 7, 1, 1, 5, 7, 11, 1, 8, 8, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 13, 7, 3, 10, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9, 7, 8, 5 & 6 run totals.

_7 totals of 0-2 runs.
_6 totals of 3-4 runs.
30 totals of 5+ runs (69.7%)

Their current 18 game streak of scoring at least 3 runs is their longest this season.

Their current 6 game streak of scoring at least 5 runs is their longest this season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore has gone 67 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 44-19-4 to Over during this period, and are 16-0-2 to Over off their last 18 Under results.

They play Thursday off an Under result on Wednesday.
 
Since July the 6th, the Chicago Cubs are...

- 20-2 SU in games which they score at least 3 runs (17-5 to Over)

- 0-9 SU in games which they score 2 runs or less (8-1 to Under)

Capping a side for their games has been as straightforward as simply concerning yourself with how their offense will go.
 
So over tomorrow in Cleveland....just an amazing streak by the O's. I played Baltimore tonight w/Guthrie. He really has been consistently good.
 
From TheSportingNews.com - "Jackson will replace Paul Byrd in the rotation and start Thursday against the Orioles. He came over in the CC Sabathia trade and went 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA at Triple-A after joining the Indians, but expect him to struggle. Jackson has a 4.90 ERA and 268/152 K/BB ratio in 408 career innings at Triple-A, along with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP over 42 career major league innings. The 25-year-old is a former first round pick from 2004 who has largely disappointed, not posting an ERA under 4.00 in any level since high A ball. He's a location pitcher without a strikeout pitch, who will be a project for Cleveland's instructional staff."

Thursday's game does not seem to be quite the pitching matchup we saw this evening between Guthrie and Reyes.
 
Thursday's game does not seem to be quite the pitching matchup we saw this evening between Guthrie and Reyes.
Click to expand...

No.

About the only warning sign I can think of a the O's facing a new pitcher and, once again, being on their season high of offensive output. I've seen such circumstances lead to a team making garbage on the mound look like a Cy Young before (as I'm sure everyone has).
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
No.

About the only warning sign I can think of a the O's facing a new pitcher and, once again, being on their season high of offensive output. I've seen such circumstances lead to a team making garbage on the mound look like a Cy Young before (as I'm sure everyone has).
Click to expand...
For example Waters first start at LAA last week?? Good point but I'll have to risk that and play the trend.
 
Great stuff Betcrimes. Thanks for your insight. I like the OVER in Balt/Cleveland tomorrow. Here is my preliminary writeup that I will be posting tomorrow:

Zach Jackson gets the surprising call up for the Tribe to replace Paul Byrd. Jackson, a 25 year old left hander, was a throw in for the Tribe in the CC Sabathia deal. In three years in the Brewers chain, he showed limited stuff with PERA's that far exceeded his ERA. He was pummeled in Triple A in Nashville earlier this season. In 57.3 innings at Nashville, he allowed 81 hits and 54 runs, had an ERA of 7.85 with a 34:18 K:BB ratio. He has looked a bit better at Triple A Buffalo where in 26.7 innings he has allowed 25 hits, 13 runs, a 4.05 ERA and 20:5 K:BB ratio. However, in his last two starts, he has tossed just 10 innings and allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs (9.00 ERA). The O's are 21-8 OVER against lefties this season and have gone over their last 9 starts against left handers and have averaged 6.78 runs in those 9 games. Their record against lefties is 11-20 and leads people to think they struggle against southpaws, but those numbers are very misleading. They average 5.2 runs per game against lefties overall (more than half a run more than against righties) and are hitting .285 against lefties (more than 25 points higher than against righties). In their last 16 games, their hit totals are: 10, 17, 12, 6, 16, 10, 11, 10, 9, 8, 15, 14, 14, 9, 10 and 12 for an average of 11.44 per game. Betcrimes1984 has provided great insight with his information that: Baltimore has gone 67 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 44-19-4 to Over during this period, and are 16-0-2 to Over off their last 18 Under results." August 8th and 9th was a close call to that streak as both games landed 10 and 10.5's were available on both games although some 10 minus juice was available. With Wednesday's UNDER, Thursday falls into the back-to-back trend. Daniel Cabrera comes in off one of his best starts of the season, but in his 4 prior starts, he tossed 23 innings and allowed 31 hits, 22 earned runs and 11 walks. In his last 39.7 innings, he has allowed 24 walks. Marvin Hudson will be behind the plate tomorrow. Hudson has one of the lowest strike percentages in the majors at 61.3% and averages 8.4 walks per game. Cabrera could struggle with Hudson's strike zone.
 
JROCK1966 said:
For example Waters first start at LAA last week?? Good point but I'll have to risk that and play the trend.
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong - I wouldn't play Under. I'd just fear the team facing the worst of the 2 pitchers is reaching an offensive peak, and sometimes you gotta make a call when to jump ship.


GH:cheers:

August 8th and 9th was a close call to that streak as both games landed 10 and 10.5's were available on both games although some 10 minus juice was available.
Click to expand...

Yeah. The reason I only go on opening lines is precisely because of that situation. Imagine theoretically if a game of theirs opened 9.5 and was backed up to 15.5, and the game totals 15 runs. If I go on closing lines, I'd have to record such a result as an Under, when in reality clearly "it's not" (and further, no Over backer has any excuse to have lost for taking the worst of imaginable lines). In that instance you mentioned, 10.0 was available til around midday of the game, so no Over backer has any excuse for losing in that particular instance if they obeyed the simple rule of not betting bad lines.
 
Probably pretty obvious to play play Florida tomorrow. Multiple team tendencies and the Cardinals next target is division rival Reds. Add homer ump.
 
Leans
Cubs ML
This line seems too good to be true. I'm not sure why a patient team that likes hitting LHP like Chicago will have trouble with Glavine.
PHI/LAD UNDER 8.5
Myers has been great, and the Phillies will have their struggles with Kuroda. Both teams have great pens.

TIGERS RL +125/UNDER 9.5
Galarraga in the day has been nearly unhittable. Normally this would be a pretty big play but the Tigers haven't played well lately and might be throwing in the towel for 08, so I'm keeping it small.
 
JROCK1966 said:
For example Waters first start at LAA last week?? Good point but I'll have to risk that and play the trend.
Click to expand...

Think different circumstances . LAA was returning home from a EAST Coast trip with no rest . Played Balt on Monday off two losses and lead throughout but almost blew it. Think 2nd home is always a nice flat spot for a team especially off a win back from a long trip. Also LAA struggled against another new LHP when Matt Harrison made his debut vs them. So it just asnt Waters

Jackson is basically an NL pitcher coming to the AL as well which is a DH and more talented.

I think you have to look more at rookies who are overlooked or given little chance to succeed. In some ways Jackson fills that but they way Balt is hitting tough to think he shuts them down but I think they are making him out a little worse then he is. Some guys come up with no pressure or expectations and its so much easier to succeed. You wonder if Jackson wants to make a statement being a part of the CC deal.

:shake:
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
GH:cheers:



Yeah. The reason I only go on opening lines is precisely because of that situation. Imagine theoretically if a game of theirs opened 9.5 and was backed up to 15.5, and the game totals 15 runs. If I go on closing lines, I'd have to record such a result as an Under, when in reality clearly "it's not" (and further, no Over backer has any excuse to have lost for taking the worst of imaginable lines). In that instance you mentioned, 10.0 was available til around midday of the game, so no Over backer has any excuse for losing in that particular instance if they obeyed the simple rule of not betting bad lines.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with you....I have actually seen some result logs that recorded both games as UNDERS (i.e. Foxsheets), but I am by no means questioning the stats and trends you presented and truley respect your insight. Wish I had joined CTG earlier.
 
tuck321 said:
Probably pretty obvious to play play Florida tomorrow. Multiple team tendencies and the Cardinals next target is division rival Reds. Add homer ump.
Click to expand...

I talked about this game on Monday hoping FLA would be off a LOSS. Olsen is so much better at home and STL has had some CLEAR struggles with LHP of late . Thursday is not a good "day" for STL either but Wellenmeyer has been solid . SO looking at FLA ML and UNDER...pretty strong play ..:cheers:
 
the nationals will not make my card again this season. how bergmann got lit up for 10 runs after being so strong recently is amazing.
 
SportsNut said:
I talked about this game on Monday hoping FLA would be off a LOSS. Olsen is so much better at home and STL has had some CLEAR struggles with LHP of late . Thursday is not a good "day" for STL either but Wellenmeyer has been solid . SO looking at FLA ML and UNDER...pretty strong play ..:cheers:
Click to expand...


Agreed tuck, it looks like a great spot for the Marlins.
 
pigeon said:
the nationals will not make my card again this season. how bergmann got lit up for 10 runs after being so strong recently is amazing.
Click to expand...

Seems to only do well when he pitches every 5 days . The results are mind boggling when he has recieved an extra days rest . Not saying its only that because it was odd how bad he was so cant dismiss an injury . Like I said earlier before I bet Wash myself the Nats are just a bad team...now 1-11 in the 2ndH vs teams with winning records!

Not sure what is most ABSURD about this stat the number of shutouts so far in 2008 or there record -

Washington after being SHUTOUT is 2-15 with them off a shutout today making it the 18th time they have been shutout . Both times the Nats WON were with John Lannan at HOME...

They have also been shutout in B2B games 3 times !

Runs after a SHUTOUT
4 0 1 0 2 6 5 2 3 1 0 2 4 2 2 2 7

Both wins Lannan at home and were Nats SHUTOUTS 5-0 vs Owings and 2-0 vs Lilly .

2 runs or less {11times}
3 runs {once}
4runs {twice}
5runs{once}
6runs {once}
7runs {once}

Pretty Sad imo....

Nats at home vs LHSP have lost 7 straight and 11 of 12 (7-6 vs MILW when Parra started) . Which followed a 6-2 spurt vs LHSP after an 0-3 start vs them.

Which makes them 7-16 at home vs LHSP.

Bergmann on 6 days:
4/9 FLA
5/26 Milw
6/6 SF
6/12 @ Pitt
6/18 @ Minny
6/29 Balt
7/10 Zona
8/02 Cincy
today

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>2.20</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>41.0</TD><TD align=right>37</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>36</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.239</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Why get off the Houston train ?

There is 1 concern - Moehler is just as bad so far as Correria in Day games but very limited sample .

SF is 5-1 in last 4 game 4s
SF is 11-4 L15 times Correria went on normal rest
SF is 2-9 L11 starts Correria was a DOG
Houston 49-19 L68 laying between 150 and 200 at home but just 2-4 last 6

real suprised this game isnt -170 or better.

SFG 14-29 in Day games
SFG bullpen has to be taxed and has been terrible at times in this series

Correria 0-4 (team 0-5) in Day starts
Moehler 0-1 (team 1-2)

27.1 inn 30H 23 R 16bb 21 K 4Hrs Correria (day)

12.2 inn 23 H 14r 13 er 5 hrs 6bb 6k in 3 starts (1 bb 1k and solo Hr in 1 inn on relief) Moehler

4-10 when Correria starts but 3-1 L4

All that said I dont understand why the total is 9.5 u-120 (ONLY).

Guess its safe to assume Holm catches and he is 7-40 3rbi on the road quite a dropoff from Bengie Molina. A respectable 15-56 in day games though

Something 8-15 with 5 One run losses with him catching...

SF going with a youth movement . They havent played that badly in the series with the game being close through 5 or SF leading each time then they fell to pieces.......

Food for thought....:shake:
 
Thinking Houston deserves a look. I've seen all games in the series and the Giants had the lead in all 3 of them, and ended up losing them convincingly.

Now Correia, who is much better at home (5.82 road ERA), Moehler has looked sharp in his last couple of starts and the Astros are playing with some confidence right now.


Milwaukee at plus money against the Padres worth a look, Peavy is great but the team isn't winning much for him this year.
 
Without wasting much time and effort . Looking at taking DET . They rallied late always a good sign IMO and lost thanks to 1 pitch or swing however you want to look at it . Litsch returns for the start and has been good in day games but lost his last 5 away before being sent down and a veteran team like DET should hit him well IMO.

Galaragga pretty good in day starts. 43 inn 25 h 7 er (11r) 1.57 ERA 5-0 record(6-1 team) ZERO Hrs of 14 allowed as well in day starts....

Jays have 7 possible starters hiting below 230 in day games and only Inglett and Rios with solid stats and Wells decent .

Litsch 1-8 L9 starts before demotion beating Cincy. In 7 of his 8 wins the opponent scored 2 runs or less with only texas getting 5 in a game he lasted less then 6 innings in.


<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2.07</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>69.2</TD><TD align=right>52</TD><TD align=right>21</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>20</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.202</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>4.96</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>49.0</TD><TD align=right>50</TD><TD align=right>31</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>22</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.258</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:cheers:
 
What 's the question counselor ?


Also think over @ Oak and A's worth a look. Shields allowed 5 Hrs in 2 start to Oak and seem sfortunate to have won both. Much more hittable on the road . Gallagher was impressive @ TB earlier but was skipped due to some arm issues so that must be investgated further.....pens have been worked...
 
That line of 9.5 between the Giants and Astros seems a little high with the SF bats. I swear, here in the bay area we have 2 of the worse offenses around. If we played each other again, the over under would be 3.
 
SportsNut said:
What 's the question counselor ?


Also think over @ Oak and A's worth a look. Shields allowed 5 Hrs in 2 start to Oak and seem sfortunate to have won both. Much more hittable on the road . Gallagher was impressive @ TB earlier but was skipped due to some arm issues so that must be investgated further.....pens have been worked...
Click to expand...

careful with overs and Oakland. i had to go back 16 games before i saw Oakland score 5 runs. it seems like since the all star break, they've really given up and don't even care.
 
counselor said:
Well, maybe not so much Haren, but at -160, shouldn't the RL be more around -105 to -110.

+125?
Click to expand...

Home teams usually wider spread since they will hit 1 time less. So typical spread is about 85 cents for home teams and usually 55 to 60 cents for road teams...

So actually looks like what I expect but just my opinion:shake:
 
So confused. Would seem to me the home team at -160 would have a lower price on the RL than +125
 
Detroit probably is right. Toronto probably focused on Halladay at Boston after getting bacj the 3 game home sweep.
 
cogenman said:
careful with overs and Oakland. i had to go back 16 games before i saw Oakland score 5 runs. it seems like since the all star break, they've really given up and don't even care.
Click to expand...

Good point . Had the UNDER today myself and TB is an UND machine away as well of late ( at one point in SEA like 9 straight unders).

Just like the spot depending on who is in the lineup . Might get a 7 at some point and think both can get 3-3 at some point .

Sonnastine is probably pitcing better then Shields of late and well Gallagher despite his start @ TB is not JDuch. Neither pen is inspiring to me both can be had IMO.....Weakest SP of the series IMO...

TB is 11-2 UND L13 away but Shields has ONLY 3 very good starts IMO all seaosn onthe road . One IL play which I continue to say so what an AL team is the winner thats all they did was abuse the NL , one was the 1st start of the year and the other recently @ Tor who definetly is as weak as OAK on offense .

Otherwise he allowed 2 (in 5 inn , 8h) 5 7 5 4(1 inning) 6 5 3(last start in 6.2 @ Sea) ......

And the 5Hrs in 2 starts so far OAK
:shake:
 
counselor said:
So confused. Would seem to me the home team at -160 would have a lower price on the RL than +125
Click to expand...

They get one less extra atbat so less chances to score and the walkoff factor as well...

If the road team scores in the top 9th the game continues and they still hit and the home team still gets an atbat. If the home team is tied 4-4 once it scores a run game is over unless its a HR no other runners matter...

Its like anything else percentage based...:shake:
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Baltimore's last 43 games of offense -

11, 2,
Click to expand...
BetCrimes1984 said:
9, 2, 5, 7, 5, 7, 10, 3, 10, 6, 8, 5, 7, 1, 1, 5, 7, 11, 1, 8, 8, 1, 1, 5, 6, 5, 13, 7, 3, 10, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9, 7, 8, 5 & 6 run totals.

_7 totals of 0-2 runs.
_6 totals of 3-4 runs.
30 totals of 5+ runs (69.7%)

Their current 18 game streak of scoring at least 3 runs is their longest this season.

Their current 6 game streak of scoring at least 5 runs is their longest this season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore has gone 67 games without posting consecutive Under results. They are 44-19-4 to Over during this period, and are 16-0-2 off under

They play Thursday off an Under result on Wednesday.
Click to expand...


This stat of 16-0-2 to the over off their last 18 UNDERS is in reference to GAME TOTAL or TEAM TOTAL????

Thanks.
 
2 games I like for some afternoon action. Frisco/Houston under 9.5 and Jays/Tigers under 9.5. These are the numbers I came up with for both these games.

Frisco Versus Astros
87 99
87 97
87 107
75 116
0.84 AVG OP 1.0475

3.2 3.02
1.39 1.35
1.08 AVG DP 1.03

3.972391549 Runs 5.203050528

TOTAL 9.18 Runs


Jays Versus Tigers
92 108
96 106
94 114
70 105
0.88 AVG OP 1.0825

3.46 2.5
0.97 1.37
1.04 AVG DP 0.91

3.685402817 Runs 5.189469425

TOTAL 8.87 Runs
 
I also like the Braves/Cubs over 9.5 for the night games.This is ehat I got for this game.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 144pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=192 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=17>Cubs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Versus</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Braves</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>113</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>94</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>117</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>104</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>102</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>107</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>135</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>120</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.1675" x:fmla="=AVERAGE(A2:A5)/100">1.1675</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">AVG OP</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.0625" x:fmla="=AVERAGE(C2:C5)/100">1.0625</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>3.4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>3.49</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num>1.28</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>1.29</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.0985915492957747" x:fmla="=SUM(A8:A9)/4.26">1.10</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">AVG DP</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.1220657276995307" x:fmla="=SUM(C8:C9)/4.26">1.12</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="6.0391541079812221" x:fmla="=A6*C10*4.61">6.039154</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Runs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5.3810387323943676" x:fmla="=C6*A10*4.61">5.381039</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>TOTAL</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="11.42019284037559" x:fmla="=SUM(A12,C12)">11.42</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: #ebe9ed; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ebe9ed; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> Runs</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Cincinnati is now 2-10 SU since Griffey left.

Pittsburgh is 0-6 SU in their last 6 Game 3s at home.

--------------------------------------------------------

Oakland is now 4-22 SU their last 26 games, and 0-11 SU their last 11 vs right handed starters.

--------------------------------------------------------

Florida is 10-2 SU off their last 12 losses.

Saint Louis is 3-7 SU off their last 10 wins, and is 1-7 SU in Game 4s this season (their sole win a home game vs a sub .500 NL West team - go figure).

--------------------------------------------------------
 
How about close to 2-1 on a SD RL

Peavy can shut down the Brewers at any time

2-0, 3-0, 3-1 seems reasonable to me
 
The Brewers have conceded 12 runs in 8 games, which they have won all of SU. A team functioning like that, with it's teeth firmly sunk into the Wild Card, I'd not back against personally.
 
SD -1.5 does seem worth the gamble . They had chances vs CC today ...bases loaded in the 5th for example no out . Baek to Banks to Peavy slight difference I think.....MILW has been perfect on the road since the deal though 13-2 but playing garbage teams mostly especially last 4 series which they look awesome ...SD , Wash , Cincy and ATL not very good......
 
Worth a note: the Cubs have won a season high 7 straight road games (all Over results, scoring at least 6 runs in every one of them), their previous best streak being 3 wins.
 
Pretty sure I am on SD and probably -1.5RL as well.

Peavy at home :

69 INN 1.43 ERA 0.90 WHIP .253 OBP
47H 11R 15BB 68Ks 2 HRs

Peavy in the Day:
42 INN 1.50 ERA 0.86 WHIP .245 OBP
26H 7R 10BB 43 K 2 Hr

Peavy at home in IL play 2 starts:(Pods lost both)
12 inn 15 H 4 R 2BB 12 K 1 Hr

So vs the NL at home:8 of 10 starts
57INN 32 H 7R/ER 1Hr 13BB 56Ks

Get this SD has allowed in his 8 NL starts :( 3 and 9 allowed in IL)
0 1 2 2 4 0 0 2

Only 4-4 though winning when he has allowed 0 or 1 runs losing 2-1 twice and 2-0 another (4-2 as well) . So no 1 run wins !!! Only 1 time vs the NL did he allow 3 runs vs COL in a 4-2 loss.......

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left height=16>Career vs. SD</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>3</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>1</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>0</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>15.2</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>18</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>9</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>13</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>10.34</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>2.11</TD><TD class=yspscores height=16>.364</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Last season peavy win 3-0 aginst MILW laying -180 to SUppan and SD lineup was no better but MILW was minus Weeks , Hart plus Had Jenkins and Gross in the corner OF spots ...Gywnn Jr in center ...
Recent SP to face MILW-
Banks , Baek < Mock , Lannan , Redding , Baelster , Bailey , Volzquez , Arroyo and Campillo which the last names here defeated them......thats a bunch of garbage IMO....:cheers:
 
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