Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 28 Thu 2022

07:05 PM
903Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R-1½
-120		-192O 7½
-115
904Pittsburgh PiratesZ. Thompson -R+1½
+100		+176U 7½
-105
07:05 PM
911Kansas City RoyalsB. Singer -R+1½
-105		+179O 9
+110
912New York YankeesJ. Taillon -R-1½
-115		-195U 9
-130
07:10 PM
915Cleveland GuardiansT. McKenzie -R-1½
+150		-112O 9
-120
916Boston Red SoxK. Crawford -R+1½
-170		+102U 9
+100
08:10 PM
917Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R+1½
-160		+128O 8
-105
918Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R-1½
+140		-138U 8
-115
08:40 PM
905Los Angeles DodgersT. Anderson -L-1½
-140		-205O 12
-110
906Colorado RockiesJ. Urena -R+1½
+120		+188U 12
-110
09:38 PM
919Texas RangersS. Howard -R+1½
-110		+201O 7½
-105
920Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R-1½
-110		-221U 7½
-115
09:45 PM
907Chicago CubsJ. Steele -L+1½
-180		+116O 8
-110
908San Francisco GiantsA. Wood -L-1½
+160		-126U 8
-110
 
Not sure how I’m gonna attack this but one my fav pitchers to hate is back off IL! I really think tigers can score runs off Kikuchi!! They been smashing lefty pitching lately and i think this dude can be had. He also has filthy stuff so he kinda a enigma! Thing is he all over the place when it comes to his control, I can’t imagine he gonna be his sharpest fresh off the IL. He could make me look silly and fan 10 but I think it just as likely he walks 3-4 guys and leaves a few over the middle the plate. Tigers starting what I assume gonna be a opener and their pen been really good so I dunno that I want to just play over 8.5. As big of favs jays are and with a 8.5 total im assuming tigers Ff tt is only gonna be 1.5, if that the case I’ll be all bout the over as I think there a great chance they have at least one inning they get 2 runs off this guy!! I might take a small crack at the +200 ml also.
 
I can’t believe they opened wheeler k’s at 5.5, there no chance that won’t be bet up to 6.5 before morning! He has no trouble w lefties so pirates crappy lefty loaded lineup won’t be a issue for him. I see no reason he doesn’t fan at least 7 or 8 here.
 
2 day games but I don’t see any lines or pitchers for either. I could see myself playing Ashcroft k’s if the number isn’t too high, marlins lineup is pretty gross looking these days, they need to get some guys back off IL!
 
Have Wheeler at 6.5 o-111 and only other I'd consider so far is Ohtani but 8.5 o+106 is a bitter pill even though 10 won't be surprising at all. No 1st 5 lines yet but McKenzie will be played, -115 full game seems worth it too.
 
KJ said:
Have Wheeler at 6.5 o-111 and only other I'd consider so far is Ohtani but 8.5 o+106 is a bitter pill even though 10 won't be surprising at all. No 1st 5 lines yet but McKenzie will be played, -115 full game seems worth it too.
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He moved up before I went to sleep. Didn’t think that number last long,, crazy they put it there at all, makes me nervous he gets mysteriously pulled early or something, lol.

Not sure I can stomach ohtsni but he could most def fan 10+ rangers, they have struck out more and more as the season has progressed.
 
Stros offense kinda went on hibernation in Oakland, gilbert has faced them 3x already this year and went 6+ every time, don’t love that he facing them b2b outings here but still gotta think bout ov 17.5 outs at reasonably low juice.,
 
2daBank said:
Stros offense kinda went on hibernation in Oakland, gilbert has faced them 3x already this year and went 6+ every time, don’t love that he facing them b2b outings here but still gotta think bout ov 17.5 outs at reasonably low juice.,
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How do you weigh the consistency he's shown v HOU compared to the fact they're seeing him for the 4th time?
 
KJ said:
How do you weigh the consistency he's shown v HOU compared to the fact they're seeing him for the 4th time?
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The b2b concerns me more than 4th time overall. I suppose there something to maybe they get him eventually but for most part I put way more stock in the fact he been so consistently good vs them.
 
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I skipped the day games, didn’t really see anything I felt great about so decided not to worry bout them. Working on finishing card and will post what I got when I go bet them.
 
2daBank said:
I skipped the day games, didn’t really see anything I felt great about so decided not to worry bout them. Working on finishing card and will post what I got when I go bet them.
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Yeah - I’d just be gambling to gamble if I grabbed anything in those day games. Lines felt about right to me
 
askias said:
Yankees have been terrible lately, but tempted by the home series against the Royals.
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I’d be careful tonight, singer can pitch. I do think his numbers might be a bit inflated due to him pitching a bunch of games vs weaker lineups in central and few others, so I’m not super interested in backing kc but I do think he can keep them in this game and Tallion hasn’t been so hot of late. Think singer k’s prop be the most likely play for me tho.
 
Ryno14 said:
Yeah - I’d just be gambling to gamble if I grabbed anything in those day games. Lines felt about right to me
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I woulda played Ashcroft over 3.5 k’s but they came with 4.5 at plus. He to inconsistent when it comes to missing bats for me to need him to punch 5 to cash. That fish lineup is really ugly at moment tho, I was a tad tempted! I woulda jumped if 4 took the cash, no such luck tho.
 
Prob woulda been a decent case to play the reds but wasn’t gonna make a extra drive to pay juice on cincy! Lol
 
KJ said:
Did O's ff -1, that's it for this morning
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If you made me play it I woulda went them, had they been dogs I def would have but thought them -120ish was bout right. Sucks they finally started showing them respect. Gl
 
Damn. Ashcroft has punched 2 already, fish are bumming, they didn’t have that great a lineup before getting hit w the injuries!! You take few the solid bats away and there ain’t much left! Lol
 
KJ said:
Playing their bats. Can't believe the I'd might be a buyer at the deadline!
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I feel ya. Don’t disagree. Not like rays throwing a stud. I hope they buy, bout time they got something cooking up there! I been saying for a month they could prob win the Al or nl central!
 
guess I shouldn’t have let 1 more k stop me. Thinking bout it now it wasn’t real smart of me, he either gonna fan ppl or not so if he was gonna get to 4 he prob get to 5+. Hindsight and all. Lol
 
KJ said:
Have Wheeler at 6.5 o-111 and only other I'd consider so far is Ohtani but 8.5 o+106 is a bitter pill even though 10 won't be surprising at all. No 1st 5 lines yet but McKenzie will be played, -115 full game seems worth it too.
Click to expand...

I was def thinking McKenzie props or tribe w how Sox offense looking. My big concern is it looks like a fairly strong wind blowing out at Fenway tonight and he is a dead fly ball pitcher. He has started piling up a lot more k’s lately so that good, looking as his k number against Sox bats now, I usually like going out total over w him but if ball carrying tomight it would worry me.
 
2daBank said:
I was def thinking McKenzie props or tribe w how Sox offense looking. My big concern is it looks like a fairly strong wind blowing out at Fenway tonight and he is a dead fly ball pitcher. He has started piling up a lot more k’s lately so that good, looking as his k number against Sox bats now, I usually like going out total over w him but if ball carrying tomight it would worry me.
Click to expand...
Out to which field?
 
Red Sox offense has been atrocious! Even yesterday Quantrill only downfall was Dalbec smashing 2 bombs off him, other than that they didn’t do much and Quantrill kinda a bum, lol.
 
Crawford similar to McKenzie w fly ball rate and solid k rate, tribe don’t make a habit of striking out a lot tho, at the moment there quite a bit of swing and miss in Boston lineup.
 
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May bite on live over in Fish/Reds now that Castano is out. Liked it already but now with him getting hurt and an already depleted pen..
 
I’m not sure if this means anything or just coincidence but after going 6+ damn near every start for half the year Gilbert has fallen into this pattern of only going 6 innings in every other start and last 3x he failed to go 6 were on the road, of course he on the road tonight after going 6 last start at home vs houston. As tempting his over 17.5 outs is for me I think im putting a bit of stock into the pattern combined w facing houston again and gonna leave it alone. I know his stuff plenty good enough to have another strong outing against same team as he has had plenty of these vs in div opponents but can’t lose what ya don’t bet.

I’m not 100% confident in what houston offense looks like? They came out the break and took it to yanks in that DH, went up to seattle and put a end to their hot streak, then they somewhat predictably went a bit flat in Oakland. I’m not sure if they get it right back tonight or maybe sleep on it another day? My gut says seattle better get them tonight or they be in real trouble of getting embarrassed these 6 games by the big dogs of div after already getting swept at home last week!!

Now I’ve convinced myself to pass on Gilbert props but leaning seattle w the plus money! Lol. That don’t make a ton of sense cause he prob has to be good for them to win, I’m all over the place on this one!! Lol
 
Ff on O's is -.25, not -1. Thought that sounded wrong when I typed it. Just not used to typing Asian type lines in bases.
 
Damn, I was thinking bout trying to be sneaky and play a rox Ff tt under but even with a freaking 12 total their Ff is only 2.5! Those pricks. I’m gathering all these angles to like anderson even if I’m not a total buyer, I figured w that total and rox numbers vs lhp this woulda been 3.5! I don’t think I can play it under 2.5. Fuck
 
So the 1st 5 total at coors is 6.5 -125 to the over but rox team total is only 2.5 -110 to over??? Doesn’t that scream there value on dodgers Ff tt ov 3.5 -125? Is something wrong w my math here? I’m missing something?
 
I havnt even capped Urena vs their lineup yet, I’m just going off the numbers something seems off to me:
 
KJ said:
Insane said a bunch of rain in the Denver forecast so I wouldn't go nuts
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Oh that sucks. honestly the more I look I think I was looking at it backwards. I think the value is In the 1st 5 under 6.5 -105!
 
Looks like rain before start then tapering off: that no good, I was thinking if it was one those deals where rain was coming after the start could get some ump help!! I hate I wasted the time cause man I like that under.

I know I love rox vs lhp at home but anderson came up pitching at coors so he knows how to handle it and has done well there. Urena been pretty great there since joining the team., obviously I want no part of pens at coors but man, 6.5 for these 2 pitchers to get thru 5 a good under play imo.
 
Why does fangraphs have such favorable grades for Spencer Howard? They grade his change well and he barely even throws it! They have dudes I really like who I know damn good pitchers with overall grades lower than this dude!! Am I missing something? I havnt got to see him pitch since he been back up in bigs but his numbers are fucking awful!! Is there something there or they just off their rocker?
 
Ryno14 said:
This card is absolutely disgusting
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What you think of Steele? He kinda starting to grow on me and giants offense has been total shit since the asb. Even before then they were fanning a lot this month and outside a few high scoring games run production been down. I’m kinda liking steele over 4.5 k’s and San Francisco Ff tt un2.5.
 
2daBank said:
What you think of Steele? He kinda starting to grow on me and giants offense has been total shit since the asb. Even before then they were fanning a lot this month and outside a few high scoring games run production been down. I’m kinda liking steele over 4.5 k’s and San Francisco Ff tt un2.5.
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Big fan of him and Thompson as long term pieces in the rotation, Steele can be wild at times though and SF is still a good LHP hitting offense
 
Ryno14 said:
Big fan of him and Thompson as long term pieces in the rotation, Steele can be wild at times though and SF is still a good LHP hitting offense
Click to expand...

That true but they have fallen off a bit last few weeks and they have a 27% k rate against lhp on the season. Oddly enough even tho they score around .75 more runs per 9 vs lhp on the season their obp damn near the same abd they hit less hr per 9 vs them. Not too worried bout the lefty matchup here.
 
Ryno14 said:
Would love to hear em when you got em. I can’t find one single thing I want to bet
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Tigers Ff tt ov1.5
Cle ml
Sf Ff tt un2.5
Singer ov 4.5 k’s
Wheeler ov 6.5 k’s
Steele ov 4.5 k’s

Still torn on whether I want to play seattle?? Feels like a really important game for them, I think anyways, dunno if they do? Lol. After Stros sweeping them in Seattle and starting a 4 game set here with Stros coming back home off a sleepy series in oak this just feels like the time for seattle to announce themselves, if there ever is. If they don’t take this game think it could be another lousy series for them.
 
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