Thursday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 6 Thu 2021

12:05 PM
901Milwaukee BrewersB. Woodruff -R-113O 7
-116
902Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R+103U 7
-104
12:05 PM
909Houston AstrosL. McCullers Jr. -R+179O 7½
-108
910New York YankeesG. Cole -R+1 Markets-195U 7½
-112
12:10 PM
911Detroit TigersS. Turnbull -R+188O 8½
-103
912Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R+1 Markets-205U 8½
-117
12:15 PM
903New York MetsT. Walker -R-116O 8
-110
904St. Louis CardinalsJ. Gant -R+106U 8
-110
1:10 PM
915Cleveland IndiansT. McKenzie -R+117O 8½
-110
916Kansas City RoyalsD. Duffy -L+1 Markets-127U 8½
-110
2:37 PM
917Toronto Blue JaysH. Ryu -L-145O 8
-115
918Oakland AthleticsM. Fiers -R+1 Markets+134U 8
-105
3:05 PM
905Atlanta BravesD. Smyly -L+108O 9½
-105
906Washington NationalsJ. Lester -L-118U 9½
-115
5:40 PM
907Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+123O 7½
+100
908Miami MarlinsP. Lopez -R+1 Markets-133U 7½
-120
 
first glance what the hell is this KC line

leans

May 6WHEELER
GANT
smyly
bumgarner
mccullers
turnbull
lyles
mckenzie
FIERS
 
Ticketwindow said:
G, so you were expecting KC to be +125 with Duffy?
Click to expand...

pretty much. McKenzie has had control problems, but Duffy dogged like he was @ Shoemaker and putting up unrealistic ERA numbers had me thinking people were going to be backing the other side's great bullpen that has been favored @ CHW a bunch recently

Must be plenty of anti-McKenzie money out there, only Wittgren looks down in that bullpen and KC's bullpen looks like a good start was just a fluke.

Very hard to overcome a guy who can't throw strikes, not just for walks but also the high-stress situations it puts him in
 
McCullers can match Cole if he's on, that likely requires feel for his curveball and i'm not sure how to cap that before a start. We know we're gonna get a QS from Cole, so barring some unearned runs that means HOU will have to really keep NYY quiet including the bullpen to win a low-scoring game.

Still curious waht Boone is doing with his lineup specifically at cleanup putting Urshela there after Odor was in that slot and others who really don't produce. 1-3 seem carved in stone, Higashioka can mash (and is big for working with Cole) but after the top 3 there are concerns.

Price is large as NYY drifts to -200, only need to win this one 35% of the time to make it +EV. McCullers 4 of 5 starts fit the QS mold, can't really explain getting tattooed at home by DET
 
Was hoping to get Woodruff dogged, but surprised to see that weak MIL lineup favored on the road even with Woodruff on the bump. He seems like 6 innings is his limit, though Hader probably works no matter what today. So PHI has to get to Woodruff or the other two innings of bullpen

Wheeler fastball command was bad earlier in the year, he wasn't really punished in the start @ ATL but he hasn't been sharp yet this year. Navigating today's lineup does not seem to be that much of a challenge, rookie Tyrone Taylor hitting 3rd says a lot about MIL sans Yelich as he hit the IL yet again. Who are the threats in that lineup? Sheesh

PHI on the other hand misses Harper and that lineup is not great without him (or with him). Realmuto sits also, probably why the line jockeyed back to MIL favored. Hoskins and Bohm with maybe McCutchen or a rare good day in the lineup for Miller look like the threats, another sheesh is deserved.

PHI has controlled this series and bat last, good to see a night off for Neris last night so he should be there along with last night's save going to Alvarado. Really looking at a slight lineup advantage then an inferior starter and bullpen, though close on both of those. Not sure the home odds are worth it
 
I am considering an Oak play today; Ryu coming off the DL and it's shown that the best way to beat the Oakland hitters are fastballs. Broadcast was talking about the BA's for the A's @ .190 for any pitch 95 and above where as they were mashing .400+ anything lower than that.. I think Ryu tops off at 92. Phelps is gone to injury, but chatwood and possibly borucki unavailable of the pen as well. Something that might neutralize all of this are the shadows which would help Ryu out a ton.
 
gsro said:
I am considering an Oak play today; Ryu coming off the DL and it's shown that the best way to beat the Oakland hitters are fastballs. Broadcast was talking about the BA's for the A's @ .190 for any pitch 95 and above where as they were mashing .400+ anything lower than that.. I think Ryu tops off at 92. Phelps is gone to injury, but chatwood and possibly borucki unavailable of the pen as well. Something that might neutralize all of this are the shadows which would help Ryu out a ton.
Click to expand...

but then you gotta back Mike Fiers

and Trivino who hasn't been good since 2019 and got blasted last night
 
gsro said:
I am considering an Oak play today; Ryu coming off the DL and it's shown that the best way to beat the Oakland hitters are fastballs. Broadcast was talking about the BA's for the A's @ .190 for any pitch 95 and above where as they were mashing .400+ anything lower than that.. I think Ryu tops off at 92. Phelps is gone to injury, but chatwood and possibly borucki unavailable of the pen as well. Something that might neutralize all of this are the shadows which would help Ryu out a ton.
Click to expand...

awesome Info
 
Ryu also likely doesn't fit that mold since he's a guy who lives on offspeed and that 92 looks like 95 when he unleashes it. Feel free to fade a road favorite off the IL thanks to a glute strain, but i don't think those numbers mean much
 
GWarner27 said:
but then you gotta back Mike Fiers

and Trivino who hasn't been good since 2019 and got blasted last night
Click to expand...
I wouldn't even expect Trivino to be available after last night and the quick day game turn around. I think the shadows will help him, one thing that concerns me is that his change up usage is up this year and his 4 seamer usage is down. Some might say he's decided to use his cutter more since it's up as well, but you're not sneaking a lot of change ups by these A's hitters. I don't think it's a surprise that the game tying home run was a slider last night and the A's were mashing anything but a fastball.

His deception does indeed make it feel like it's a little faster than 92 and the shadows will also amplify that, I just see it as a good spot to not be a "homer". Some anti-banksy if you will. I suspect the shadows will have the greater effect
 
I just realized that the brewers line up should just be called the Milwaukee Blue Jays: Maille, Vogelbach, Shaw, McKinney
 
Gant has been playing with fire all day and might have finally paid for it here
 
ARI going L heavy in the lineup especially after Detwiler started and went 2 last night for MIA. Bleier back there will be used late and force some PH, not sure Curtiss is available after 27 last night but the good MIA pen will be available. ARI got Soria back, though he did not look sharp. Devenski with still an unexplained restricted list visit came back and pitched too, but since it was a blowout it looks like nobody important from either bullpen is unavailable today. ARI could be a better pen, but they are still pretty young so i'm not sure that's a huge advantage

Bum looked finished beginning of this season after a poor 2020, came back and tossed that 7-inning no hitter @ ATL sandwiched by two separate 1 r 5ip outings vs COL and @ WAS. His Ks have been okay despite not going deep in games, looks like 5 is about as far as he can be expected to go so that's a lot of bullpen expected.

Pablo has a great fastball and change, but that clearly has not been enough for him to get ATL out and i've watched him really struggle at Truist. Haven't had my eyes on his other starts so intently, but i imagine that info is known by everybody. His stats are awesome this season, certainly aided by pitching in a monster park but also @ SF and @ WSH. Only tough park was ATL and he struggled, K's have been good besides the last 7ip 0r 2k outing in DC. His opponents have not exactly been juggernauts, TB SF (2) WSH ATL STL, but the numbers look good.

MIA going all R, seems like a good idea since L hit .100 worse right now than R in 2021 and .034 worse over Bum's career. That'll benefit the Snakes bullpen late, but time to play scenarios...

How DBacks win:
Pablo shelled
Bum good + bullpen holds a lead
Pablo good + bullpen chokes

How Fish win:
Bum shelled
Bum good + bullpen chokes
Pablo good + bullpen holds
Everybody good but last AB

ARI priced at 44% to win this one, i guess if you buy Bum's resurgence you can play this one and hope the bullpen holds his lead. Not really seeing either SP getting shelled and don't want to fall in love with recent Bum performance
 
GWarner27 said:
DFA goes to waivers and hopefully someone claims him but think you'd have to pay that salary and nobody will do that. Once he clears he signs with whoever needs a clubhouse guy to pinch hit in power spots
Click to expand...
has to go down as one of the worst contracts ever, right?
 
Ryu’s four seamer isn’t even hitting 90. Thst homer he gave up registered at 88. Yikes.
 
Vasquez didn‘t want to take another low pitch because the last two were called strikes altho they were balls. But it didn‘t matter!
 
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