The United States Open @ Oakmont

[B.A.R.]

What are your early takes on our national championship?

Tiger is kinda siting semi-below the radar with all the Buth and Phil talk. Mickelson has had a two 3rds and a first since changing coaches. I wouldn't be suprised if both are their at the end of this weeks memorial.

Oakmost is a neat course. I wasn't an avid golf fan when the last Open was there but I have been researching the course quite a bit. The locals are predicting a score anyhere from +10 to -10 depending on the weather. Five-thousand trees have been removed from Oakmont in the last three years to make it more like it was in the early 1900's. Its a helluva layout. The par 4's relatively short but the fairways are small. The par 5's are some of the longest in Open history and one par Three can play over 300 yards.

Who are your early looks? Suprises?

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Furyk and Goosen always have to be on your radar at an Open..

I think Els will be a factor too..

 

[B.A.R.]

I think Furyk is a nice play. Course stretches just over 7200. Its not too brutal. The Par 4's favor him ansd he will simply lay the par 5's correctly.

Els is starting to come around too.

Should be interesting.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Chat on Espn yesterday said a top 10 pro expects +10 to win it this year, depending on green speed..

Guess it's just brutal.

Ask Phil's wrist..

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah....depends on the weather for next 10 days too...they said +10 to -8....all about the weather

 

[JumpOnBoard]

and the greens...

They said they'll have to slow em down from where they are for the members...lol..

13 to 13.5 I guess.

 

[B.A.R.]

The members play the same shit. Read about 30-40 pages about this place/members..quite intriguing.

 

[Mags]

BAR - I'll be there (live about :10-15 away). Course is looking $! I can't see the winner being in the red, just can't see it bro. Liking Furyk to hang around. Real, real tough course fellas. Rough is crazy, they're getting the greens to where they need to be, will be very interesting.

 

[Gandolf]

Course will play firm and fast, it's been pretty dry the last month and there's no rain in the forecast for the next ten days. So even par will be money.

It's really not a long course; there's no water, and now very few trees. More than most the teeth are really in its greens. Give me driving accuracy, putting average and decent form to find some prospects. Cross reference the top 20 in both categories and I come up with two names: Heath Slocum and Jerry Kelly. Kelly is a very interesting name for possible top 10 and head-to-head plays.

 

[B.A.R.]

Gandolf..you are right on track IMO with what type of player you are looking for.

Of the top players I think Fuyrk may place best.

I love how this course isn;t long. Two of the par 3's are doozies but this course is more about startegy and good ball-striking rather than muscle.

 

[B.A.R.]

Should be awesome Mags

 

[Gandolf]

The top 50 in Driving Accuracy, cross-referenced with the Top 50 in Putting Average, yields the following contestants:

David Toms
Zach Johnson
Jerry Kelly
John Rollins
Luke Donald
Pauld Goydos
Scott Verplank
Tim Clark

Oakmont's history is to reward younger players with multiple majors ahead in their future. Look at the list:

Ernie Els - 1st PGA win was at Oakmont; has since added two more majors and 14 more PGA wins.

Larry Nelson - 83 Open was his second major of three, added another 4 wins later for a total of 10 PGA wins

John Mahaffey - 78 PGA was his 2nd win and only major, but he ended with 10 career wins

Johnny Miller - 73 Open was his 3rd win and 1st of two majors; won another 22 times on tour

Jack Nicklaus - 1st professional win was at Oakmont, you know the rest

Ben Hogan - Hogan was the exception as he was towards the end of his winning ways. Only won twice more on the tour after Oakmont.

Sam Snead - Slammer was past the halfway point when he won the 51 PGA, but he still added a couple of more majors and over 20 more victories

Sam Parks Jr. - Was the exception to the rule of pedigree winning at Oakmont. He was a local guy, a pro at South Hills CC.

Tommy Armour - Won the first of three majors at Oakmont, plus almost 20 more wins followed

Bobby Jones - Oakmont was only his 3rd major, at a young 23 years of age.

Looking at the list above one name really sticks out: Luke Donald. This is the kind of tournament that could propel him to a couple of majors and a 12-15 win career. Donald also is working off two consecutive top 10s in majors and a 12th place finish in last year's open. At 28 to 1 at Bookmaker he's getting a ton of respect (tied for 7th in odds).

So there's my semi-scientific hunch for the 2007 US Open.

 

[mogo]

the weather is suppose to be beautiful here in Pittsburgh over the next few days...

 

[rolub]

Furyk is the media's hometown-ish darling to play well here, as Taylor and Howell were at Augusta. However, his numbers help back up why he's poised to turn in a good number here.

Longshot I like is Brett Wetterich at 125:1.

Have not seen Mickelson listed in the betting matchups... should tell you something about how the bookmakers expect his wrist to hold up on a course with U.S. Open rough and deeper bunkers.

:cheers:

 

[SteveMoneydog]

adam scott played great at the st jude championship. he was the leader after 3 rounds and would have won the tournament but a devastating triple-bogey at a par-three hole ended his hopes.
you can say he lost only because of one bad hole.

he's been in good form recently, has great length off the tee and a solid short game.

maybe he's worth a play at 22:1

 

[Gandolf]

VIP has the over/under on the best round of the week at 67.5, and the under is at plus odds. Had to bite on that for a unit. I'm trusting that the USGA still believes in even par as the measuring stick score, and won't trick the greens up to completely brutalize the players to a +10 finish.

67 is only 3 under par, and Oakmont does have it's share of birdieable holes. 2, 4, 5, 11, 12, 14 and 17 are either under 400 yards or par 5's, plus you have 4 par threes where it only takes one good shot to have a sniff at birdie. I think this course will yield more birdies than last year but cause more double bogies. I easily can see someone nabbing 4 or 5 birdies and managing a 66 or 67.

67 missed in 2006, but hit in 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, and yes, 1994. So complete brutality is not yet a trend.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

"I think I shot 83 and lost two," Ogilvy said. "But it was hard. It was five shots harder last Monday than it is right now. I didn't think there would be one score in the 60s at all, and I thought there would be scores in the 90s the way we played it last Monday. But the last couple of days, it's been a lot more playable than that."

 

[signalcaller]

I think Furky and Kelly both have good shots to play very well this week. Also was looking at Steve Stricker. Hes got his game back on track and his putting is phenomonel. I think its going to be brutal though. I think +5 is going to win

 

[rolub]

Myself, I wound up playing Wetterich at 150:1 and Baddeley at 80:1.

If i didn't already have them in some pools, I'd also like Verplank and Pampling, both at 100:1.

Mind you, these aren't predictions in stone that I'll lay my rep on... just worth a very small play to me based on the large payouts. No reason for me to back any of the faves on such a difficult, unpredictable course.

:cheers:

 

[Gandolf]

Paul Casey, 5 birdies, 1 bogey, 66 in round 2. Cha-Ching! :smiley_acbe:

 

[SteveMoneydog]

adam scott played great at the st jude championship. he was the leader after 3 rounds and would have won the tournament but a devastating triple-bogey at a par-three hole ended his hopes.
you can say he lost only because of one bad hole.

he's been in good form recently, has great length off the tee and a solid short game.

maybe he's worth a play at 22:1

adam scott +10 for the day so far and +16 for the tournament:spank:

 

[rolub]

Hell of a number from Casey today in comparison to the rest of the early group.

Hoping Badds can stay put on his last hole and let the rest ahead of him deal with the afternoon greens.

:cheers:

 

[rolub]

Why do I have a difficult time believing this guy's from Texas?

 

[Timh]

Well shit Rolub your 80-1 to on Bads looks pretty good, certainly gives you a couple outs for tomorrow. GL

 

[rolub]

Thanks Tim :cheers: ... he's played really well throughout the first 3 rounds, but i'd be foolish to say I'm not worried about his playing partner.

On the bright side, I'm in a pool that if Tiger wins, I should be able to cash at least 2nd place, as I've got Toms, Verplank, and Funk, who should give me enough earnings to finish top 3. Out of the guys with Tiger, only one is in better position, since he has Baddeley, Weir, and Funk remaining. the only x-factor would be Furyk coming on strong and finishing in the top 3 or so, as he was one of the faves in the pool.

therefore, made a small bet on Furyk this morning at 14:1. Best case scenario for me is for Baddeley and Woods to finish 1-2, with Furyk having a bad day and falling below Toms/Verplank.

 

[Gandolf]

Rooting for you Rolub with your Badds bet. Hopefully he can suck in some air after that first hole. Looked like he played it without breathing.

 

[Gandolf]

Well, it was no surprise to see the current king fall short again at Oakmont, that's pretty much been the case since Palmer's loss in '62. Also not surprising to see a first time winner, although go figure with Cabrera. While he's an underrated putter (#28 in putting average in 2006), he has never been one to play much from the fairways (150th in driving accuracy in 2007, 191st in 2006). But he was terrific on Sunday. Can he follow this up with more success on the PGA tour? Not sure. He certainly has the game to do well at the Masters, but at 37 he's no spring chicken.

Looking at my list from the start of the week:

David Toms - a very quiet tie for 5th
Zach Johnson - tied for 45th
Jerry Kelly - solid tie for 7th (shoudl've taken him instead of Rollins in the pool, dammit)
John Rollins - fading tie for 42nd
Luke Donald - figures, my personal favorite misses the cut
Pauld Goydos - missed the cut
Scott Verplank - solid tie for 7th
Tim Clark - solid tie for 17th

3 of the top 9, not bad.

Tiger looked like he had his C game out there, at best. Cabrera and Furyk definitely played better. Eldrick needed a ton of clutch six footers just to hang in there. That's runner-up finish #4 in the majors, still a long way to go to get to the Bear's 19.

Last note - Does this move Francisco Cabrera into 2nd place in Cabrera lore in Pittsburgh? I certainly hope so.

 

[rolub]

well, it probably couldn't have turned out any worse! :36_11_6:

no need to comment on Badds.

Furyk came on strong, as i thought he would, but not strong enough to win.

however, he did come on strong enough for the 4 Furyk backers to jump me in the pool, despite Toms and Verplank both finishing well on Sunday.

with the results from a much larger pool still pending, i'm standing on a big fat goose egg.

:spank: