2022 United State Open Discussion

Rahm/Collin/Piot group, sticking with playing against better than par on par 3s

Hole 1 any under par +155
Hole 2 no one under par -450 3*
 
Stepping away for a minute after this one

10th hole Rory/X/Deki no one under par -550

Would go for way more on this one but doing well playing this market and don't need some random hole out to derail it
 
KJ said:
No storm and can't see a chance it happens

There is no wind right now
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I'd say 10-15% chance. +4 is now T70, needs to get to T60. There are 10 on the course at +3, another 3 at +2, another 8 at +1. Probably need 7 or 8 of the +3 guys to drop another shot and 2 or 3 of other 11 to go sour. Not easy with benign conditions, but not impossible.
 
Gandolf said:
I'd say 10-15% chance. +4 is now T70, needs to get to T60. There are 10 on the course at +3, another 3 at +2, another 8 at +1. Probably need 7 or 8 of the +3 guys to drop another shot and 2 or 3 of other 11 to go sour. Not easy with benign conditions, but not impossible.
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I'll pull for it if it doesn't derail my wagers

In zombie mode and just playing wagers based on numbers and no feel right now. It's what happens on the East Coast tournaments when I'm on the phone at midnight and try to wake up at 4 for a couple days

Pretty sure the gal I was talking to last night at 1am hung up on me when I said I need to get up in a couple hours to watch golf, she was probably in the right
 
Nothing like those 3-4 minutes when you have to change channels to watch that are occupied by some random news person that sounds like they should still be in school.
 
I like Morikawa and Rahm to be 1/2 heading to Saturday. They're both making the turn to the easier front 9 while the other leaders are heading to the back.
 
Not going to keep track of course w/live bets, barely can keep up wagering

Took the Rory group to at least birdie both 11 and 12

Rahm group no birdie or better on 4. This one was -260, the two above were -125 and -135

Curious to see how this speed gambling works out. Don't think I've bet more than $50 on these except one but it's adding up. Collin on a heater could make this more difficult than I want
 
Finally pulled the trigger on a -1100, think I've never done it before

Rahm group at least one better than par -1100 on the 8th

When there are more birdies than pars today on a par 5 and a quality group, I simply think this number should be closer to -5000 to discourage wagers
 
Currently on the leaderboard, time to refresh a Joel Dahmen greatest moment from earlier this year on Saturday in Scottsdale.

Harry Higgs said he wanted to flash the crowd if he birdied 16, and he followed through (was a lengthy par putt but still). Joel just decided to step it up a notch.

 
Think there's a lot of wait and see this morning, I believe the wind has changed direction and at 15mph that's a big deal. Also have seen it's expected to be the same wind Sunday as Caturday so hopefully that makes for a great final round. Just would scale back expectations for today unless the forecast has changed. Will be a different wind than the first two days.
 
KJ said:
Think there's a lot of wait and see this morning, I believe the wind has changed direction and at 15mph that's a big deal. Also have seen it's expected to be the same wind Sunday as Caturday so hopefully that makes for a great final round. Just would scale back expectations for today unless the forecast has changed. Will be a different wind than the first two days.
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Not windy here, yet
 
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Obviously they can get weather wrong but the biggest point is if it does actually change direction, I don't expect low scores early as they acclimate.

Also if it stays the same on Sunday, we probably see some lower scores until nerves kick in once they've played a round in those same conditions
 
I went and added more on Harman
win:
Harman +3500

top 5:
Harman +550


my original two win/top 5,10 bets both missed the cut
Im and Henley


feel bad for anyone who bet Keegan Bradley if he didn’t blow up on those 4 holes yesterday he’d been in the lead
he’s flown under the radar and still is in it
 
BringInTheLefty said:
I went and added more on Harman
win:
Harman +3500

top 5:
Harman +550


my original two win/top 5,10 bets both missed the cut
Im and Henley


feel bad for anyone who bet Keegan Bradley if he didn’t blow up on those 4 holes yesterday he’d been in the lead
he’s flown under the radar and still is in it
Click to expand...
Unique for me was how the wind played perfectly for lefties the first two days with the pin placements

Curious to see how it plays now if the wind does change directions
 
Not interested in Morikawa at all with all the swink tinkering

Come Sunday when the game's on the line...can't wait to see how he controls that draw that he despises so much
 
This attempt at streaming on Peacock is complete trash

Streaming shouldn't have commercial breaks where it just goes silent
 
2-0 yesterday, 5-1 thus far. Not much to like in match ups today but will tail @BringInTheLefty on Harmon and Giants.

Harmon -145 v Rogers parlay with Giants -190. +157 for 2 units.

GL today Gents
 
Rahm to win is sitting at +450-+500, pretty sure if he doesn't blow up it's his to win. But that's a tough ask. Would love to see him and Rory paired up tomorrow
 
Ok nothing could be funnier than me posting that while I'm outside and now, just a few minutes later, the wind here is absolutely insane
 
Teapot9 said:
I really really really like the look of this course (yes I know it’s a composite), but every hole I’ve seen looks fantastic
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I agree. Great track. I only remember a few holes from '99 and honestly nothing from Matty Fitz US Am...

I believe it's been a composite for every big event over the years.
 
B.A.R. said:
I agree. Great track. I only remember a few holes from '99 and honestly nothing from Matty Fitz US Am...

I believe it's been a composite for every big event over the years.
Click to expand...
I don't remember a thing about '99 other than Leonard's putt and those historically awful shirts

Sports bar in Tempe where I was is now a hotel lobby lol
 
I was close on Will Z last night at 16-1 or so. I didn't and what a start.

Harman has value at 25-1 currently imo.
 
Going to try to do these as they come out

Rory/Wise pair

No better than par -320 both
1st hole 2*
2nd hole 3*

Collin/Dahmen pair

No better than par -350 1st hole 2*

Will be playing no on the first 4 holes for both pairings, par 3 gets another unit
 
No on the 3rd for Rory/Wise is -1100 but hard to argue it, only 2/54 birdies today

Probably should lay it but such a tough one to pull the trigger on
 
Alright, on the Will Z train! Xander and Max Homa decided to take themselves out of any top 20/10/outright quite quickly today.

Also top 40 Davis Riley still alive
 
Seeing JJustin Leonard wear his ugly ass Ryder Cup.
I used to play in my clients tourney, Justin signed a tour bag and an autographed Ryder Cup flag at auction.
I thought that was cool for what started as a small tourney(but a global financial institution) , grew each year .
HOpefully, they gave to the charities.
 
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