We all know how exciting the Super Bowl is, and with the dozens and dozens of proposition betting opportunities, you don't have to bet on whether Carolina will win and/or cover against Denver in Super Bowl 50. You can actually get paid before the ball even goes in the air.
This year, Lady Gaga will have the honors of singing the Star-Spangled Banner before the big game. She is one of the bigger stars to fulfill this honor, and she will be busy in next few weeks, with performance upcoming at the Oscars and Grammy Awards as well. This will be the ninth year in a row that a female has performed the national anthem, with Billy Joel being the last male to perform the song back at Super Bowl XLI.
Let's break this down from the fundamental standpoints, so we can figure out the right side of the first graded bet of the event.
The only time I was able to watch Lady Gaga singing the national anthem on tape was when she performed at the 2013 New York City Pride Rally. Evidently, the linesmakers have this same tape, because her rendition lasted 2 minutes and 16 seconds. I was unable to find any other useful footage and have still not been able to find a soundcheck tape, either, so I guess we'll be left in the dark.
My buddy has adroitly opened the line at 136.5 seconds, with the juice on the UNDER at -135 (OVER 136.5 seconds would yield a payout of plus-105 on the 30-cent line at the opener from Thursday afternoon). Officially, this is graded by most sportsbooks from the start of the first note until the end of the word 'brave'. Yes, the same 2:16 or so that Lady Gaga performed in New York.
Going back through some historical performances is the next step in finding the winner here.
Last year, Tony-award winner Idina Menzel belted out the anthem in 125 seconds, which was slightly OVER the closing total of 122.5 (under -160).
In Super Bowl XLVIII, Grammy-award winning Soprano singer Renee Fleming beat the total by more than 18 seconds, with her rendition lasting just 2:02, despite the closing line of 140.5 seconds flat. As this thread shows, there were a spate of UNDERS from Super Bowls 42-47 or so.
Let's play the personality angle. Lady Gaga likes attention and likes the spotlight. The 29-year old Manhattan native is worth nine figures by becoming one of the best-selling musicians of all time. Since her 2008 release of "The Fame", she has sold 28 million albums and grossed more than $300 million from 3.2 million tickets in her first three worldwide concert tours. We're already mentioned her upcoming performances within the next month or so. She likes attention and will use this Super Bowl stage to remind everyone of her star power.
The best way to do that is to draw out the Star-Spangled Banner. While I know she is an LGBT advocate and that performance in New York that is widely available on YouTube from 2013 was filled with passion, I still think she will go longer in the Super Bowl, just to get a bit more air time from CBS and all other worldwide outlets televising the game.
One x-factor is the sound check. This isn't available (from what I can tell) yet but I will constantly be checking every 30-45 minutes leading up to around 6 Eastern for a clip of her "practice" rendition to try and tab just how long she might sing today. I foresee something in the range of 2:21, or 141 seconds, making the OVER my recommendation here.
GL :shake: