The 145th Belmont Stakes

Gandolf

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Looking like a pretty nice field of 14, posts drawn tomorrow. Todd Pletcher to send out five, including filly Unlimited Budget with Rosie Napravnik on board.

Orb (McGaughey/Rosario)
Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens)
Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court) -
Revolutionary (Pletcher/Castellano)
Overanalyze (Pletcher/Velazquez)
Palace Malice (Pletcher/Smith)
Giant Finish (Dutrow/Prado)
Unlimited Budget (Pletcher/Napravnik)
Freedom Child (Albertrani/Saez)
Golden Soul (Stewart/Albarado)
Incognito (McLaughlin/I. Ortiz)
Vyjack (R. Rodriguez/Leparoux)
Midnight Taboo (Pletcher/G. Gomez)
Frac Daddy (McPeek/A. Garcia)
 
Freedom Child for me.

Hopefully the rain holds off, looking forward to a great day of racing and a wonderful Belmont Stakes. Will be capping whole card and will post some thoughts. Bol Gandy :cheers:
 
Thanks guys, always one of my favorite days. Hoping for good weather as well. Other big races on the card:

Grade 2 True North - 6 furlong sprint - features Caixa Electronica, Justin Phillip, Fast Bullet, Laurie's Rocket, Hardened Wildcat and others
Grade 1 Manhattan - 1 1/4 mile turf - Point of Entry vs. Optimizer
Grade 2 Woody Stephens - 7 furlong sprint - Honorable Dillon, Declan Warrior, Forty Tales, Merit Man, Zee Bros and others
Grade 1 Just A Game - 1 mile turf - Hungry Island, Stephanie's Kitten, Dayatthespa, Centre Court and (Jim Rome's) Mizdirection
 
Very intrigued by Freedom Child, Play. He just smashed the field in the Peter Pan after his non-start in the Wood. Will wait to see how the pp's look to see what kind of pace there might be in this one. Also agree the weather could be a factor. In that respect I'm looking forward to seeing Revolutionary again.
 
Belmont Stakes contender Freedom Child had a quiet morning on Tuesday, going out shortly after 7 for what trainer Tom Albertrani called a routine gallop.
“It was just an uneventful jog and gallop, his normal routine,” Albertrani said. “He jogged back to the three-quarter pole, turned around and galloped a mile and a half. It went well. He couldn’t be better.”
A chestnut son of Malibu Moon, Freedom Child is coming off a command performance in winning the Grade 2 Peter Pan on May 11, leading from gate to wire to win by 13 ¾ lengths under jockey Luis Saez, who will be back aboard for Saturday’s Belmont.
“I couldn’t be more happy with the horse right now,” Albertrani said. “He’s in great condition, and he’s giving us all the right signals. Now, we just have to lead him over there.”
Albertrani said he wasn’t concerned about the prospect of having 15 horses for the Belmont, which equals the largest field in the race’s 145-year history, set in 1983. The last time as many as 14 went to the post was 1996.
“It’s not going to bother us,” he said. “We’re not going to be looking at more than two or three in front of us. The rest will hopefully be behind me.”
 
Belmont Stakes (G1), Saturday, June 8, 2013Purse: $1,000,000; 1 1/2 miles
[h=3]Post[/h][h=3]Horse[/h][h=3]Trainer[/h][h=3]Jockey[/h][h=3]Watchmaker Odds[/h][h=3]ML Odds[/h]
[h=4]1[/h][h=4]Frac Daddy[/h][h=4]K. McPeek[/h][h=4]A. Garcia[/h][h=4]30-1[/h][h=4]30-1[/h]
[h=4]2[/h][h=4]Freedom Child[/h][h=4]T. Albertrani[/h][h=4]L. Saez[/h][h=4]8-1[/h][h=4]8-1[/h]
[h=4]3[/h][h=4]Overanalyze[/h][h=4]T. Pletcher[/h][h=4]J. Velazquez[/h][h=4]15-1[/h][h=4]12-1[/h]
[h=4]4[/h][h=4]Giant Finish[/h][h=4]A. Dutrow[/h][h=4]E. Prado[/h][h=4]30-1[/h][h=4]30-1[/h]
[h=4]5[/h][h=4]Orb[/h][h=4]C. McGaughey III[/h][h=4]J. Rosario[/h][h=4]5-2[/h][h=4]3-1[/h]
[h=4]6[/h][h=4]Incognito[/h][h=4]K. McLaughlin[/h][h=4]I. Ortiz Jr.[/h][h=4]20-1[/h][h=4]20-1[/h]
[h=4]7[/h][h=4]Oxbow[/h][h=4]D.W. Lukas[/h][h=4]G. Stevens[/h][h=4]6-1[/h][h=4]5-1[/h]
[h=4]8[/h][h=4]Midnight Taboo[/h][h=4]T. Pletcher[/h][h=4]G. Gomez[/h][h=4]30-1[/h][h=4]30-1[/h]
[h=4]9[/h][h=4]Revolutionary[/h][h=4]T. Pletcher[/h][h=4]J. Castellano[/h][h=4]5-1[/h][h=4]9-2[/h]
[h=4]10[/h][h=4]Will Take Charge[/h][h=4]D.W. Lukas[/h][h=4]J. Court[/h][h=4]20-1[/h][h=4]20-1[/h]
[h=4]11[/h][h=4]Vyjack[/h][h=4]R. Rodriguez[/h][h=4]J. Leparoux[/h][h=4]15-1[/h][h=4]20-1[/h]
[h=4]12[/h][h=4]Palace Malice[/h][h=4]T. Pletcher[/h][h=4]M. Smith[/h][h=4]15-1[/h][h=4]15-1[/h]
[h=4]13[/h][h=4]Unlimited Budget (f)[/h][h=4]T. Pletcher[/h][h=4]R. Napravnik[/h][h=4]12-1[/h][h=4]8-1[/h]
[h=4]14[/h][h=4]Golden Soul[/h][h=4]D. Stewart[/h][h=4]R. Albarado[/h][h=4]12-1[/h][h=4]10-1[/h]

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
Im relatively new to horse racing. Looking at PPs. You think Oxbow and Freedom get out to early lead? Oxbow likely to fall off? Orb a late push?
 
Freedom Child and Oxbow should be the early speed in the race the closers are Orb, Revolutionary and maybe Overanalyze...not quite sure the closers get the pace they need to close here though.
 
PPs are out. Here's what I see:

FRONT RUNNER TYPES

- Freedom Child - Wired in the Peter Pan and in his 4th maiden try, his only two wins to date. Also had an interesting maiden race last November where he led all the way to the stretch before being passed by Orb, but finished 2nd ahead of Revolutionary. Has never really had much success rating, wouldn't expect them to try now. Has the talent to wire, but will depend on how much pressure there is up front.

- Giant Finish - Ran a pretty even Kentucky Derby, tracking midpack about 10 lengths back and finishing 10th, 13 lengths back. Doesn't have the speed figures to contend. Won an optional claimer at Aqueduct last January by wiring the field. Was also on the pace in his maiden win. May not have the talent to give Freedom Child trouble though.

- Oxbow - After an underrated Derby performance he went right to the front in the Preakness and never looked back. Oxbow has never rated well, his three wins were all wire jobs. Basically ran the same pace in the Preakness as Freedom Child did in the Peter Pan, but closed with a little better kick, and at a little longer distance. To me that gives him the edge, although there is a legitimate concern about how much he has left in the tank at this point.

- Midnight Taboo - Making his 4th start, still eligible for NX1 races, takes a big jump up in class here. Would need a big leap forward to win or really even contend. Broke his maiden with a wire-to-wire win, didn't get the lead in the other two races and won neither. Not good enough to challenge Oxbow or Freedom Child.

(Note - I see a possible speed duel shaping up between Oxbow and Freedom Child, which would then open the race up for the off the pace types.)

ON THE PACE

- Incognito - not an interesting candidate, unless you like horses that finished 15 lengths back in their last race. Either he didn't like the slop or he didn't like the Belmont surface. Either way he's likely in trouble on Saturday.

- Palace Malice - was the surprise pace-setter in the Derby, now they take the blinkers back off in hopes of returning him to his rating style. For all the times he's been competitive he still only has a maiden win on his resume. His best efforts have been in races with tepid paces (like the Bluegrass). If this one gets a little hot like I think then he's likely to wilt yet again.

- Unlimited Budget - Interesting choice by Pletcher entering this filly in this spot, you have to respect his judgment here. She ran a credible 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks despite being up on a pace that cooked better bets Midnight Lucky and Dreaming of Julia. Before that she was 4 for 4, all routes, three in graded stakes including the 9 furlong Demoiselle at Acqueduct last year. Her speed number leveled off in the Oaks, not bad considering the pace scenario. Wouldn't take a huge leap for her to be right in the mix.

OFF THE PACE

- Frac Daddy - late entry from the McPeek barn, gave a pretty dull effort in the Derby after going 5 wide in the first turn. Another horse elgible for a first level allowance race. Has only finished within five lengths of the lead once in his last four, all graded stakes. Not much of a chance.

- Will Take Charge - The third horse to run all three triple crown races (along with Orb and Oxbow), is it his turn to shine? Noted for having a bad trip in the Derby, then was dull in the Preakness. His two dirt wins were at Oaklawn, which often doesn't translate well on the NY tracks. Could pick up a piece if the pace is hot enough. Or he could be exhausted and produce another dull effort.

- Vyjack - A typical hard trying type, was eased home in the Derby after getting swept up in the killer pace. Drops Gomez, gets Leparoux who should give a more patient ride. His speed numbers say he shouldn't contend, but he might be a little better than his numbers suggest, and with Leparoux might end up more of a one run closer.

CLOSERS

- Overanalyze - Didn't have a strong Derby considering how well many of the closers did there. Could be he didn't like the track, or the slop, both were firsts for him. He does like the NY tracks however, has wins at each of them. His backclass from a 2YO suggests he could be a factor on a track he likes. His papa, Dixie Union, also sired last year's winner, Union Rags.

- Golden Soul - Blew up everyone's superfecta tickets (including mine) with his surprise second place finish in the Derby. Was it an off-track fluke or is he genuinely improving into a top-flight contender? The pace scenario from the Derby suggests it may have been a fluke. Has never raced in NY so no idea how he'll fair there. May see another good paced race but the other three closers in this one are either better or have proven Belmont experience. My guess is his 15 minutes of fame are up.

- Orb - The Derby winner saw his five race win streak snapped when it appeared to me that Rosario was a little surprised by the slow pace (-3 according to Brisnet, as opposed to +29 for the Derby), made a premature move on the backstretch and then ran into a little race-riding by his opponents which took him out of contention. Even so he lost no ground to Oxbow in the stretch and passed a couple of horses late to finish 4th. Probably still the best horse in the field, but he has the albatross of a bad effort at Belmont as a 2YO maiden. As the likely favorite in the 14 horse field I think you have to take a shot at beating him, but he's a must use in your exotics.

- Revolutionary - My pick in the Derby, had to pause a bit at the quarter pole which enabled Orb to get the jump and win. Loses Borel and gets back Castellano, which IMO is a huge upgrade at Belmont. Javier was on Revolutionary for both his LA Derby win and that incredible stretch drive in the Withers. Like the other closers, he's going to need to see some pace upfront to run into.

The million dollar question for this race is how much of a hookup we'll see between Freedom Child and Oxbow on the front end. If they duel hard they'll certainly burn each other out and drag most of the pacesetters with them, setting the table for Revolutionary, Orb, Overanalyze or even Vyjack to swoop in and win.

If they duel moderately, it may let the filly get first jump and maybe have enough left to hold off the late chargers.

If one lets the other get loose in front, we'll probably see something similar to last year where Paynter carried the race all the way to the final jumps until the most talented horse in the race, Union Rags, was able to nail him at the wire. In this case it would likely be Orb (maybe Revolutionary?) providing a coin flip finish with the front runner.
 
Last edited:
If McPeek gets his way then you can apparently add Frac Daddy to the duel up front:

“He’s doing real well now,” McPeek said. “He’s been working bullet, bullet, bullet down there at Churchill. And we’re going to send him from the inside because he needs to be in the clear. He trains freaky good, but he’s got some mental holes in him if things don’t go his way. But he is talented. Don’t forget he beat Oxbow two starts back in the Arkansas Derby.”
 
In the Brooklyn on Friday, i think Birdrun could be huge value. I really like Mott in these dirt route races on Nyra circuit, Birdrun had no chance last time out...extended layoff and caught chasing loose on the lead, wire winner Percussion - who has moved up in Pletcher barn but really hope for a much more honest pace here and hope someone else goes early w/ Percussion. Maybe i'm wrong and Birdrun is over the hill but at 12-1 ML im going to take a chance that we see a great effort from the Mott trained 7 yo and will be playing to WIN.
 
Streakin said:
Coverage, yes. But dont think they are showing the undercard races. I really hope Im wrong. Can anyone confirm?
Click to expand...

This was the most definitive thing I saw

Post time for the Belmont Stakes will be at 6:36pm Eastern and it will be race 11 on a 13 race card. It will be televised on NBC from 5-7pm EDT, with the undercard stakes shown on NBC Sports Network from 3-5pm, as well as a post race show from 7-7:3pm.

http://www.horse-races.net/library/bel13-entries.htm
 
Play2win said:
In the Brooklyn on Friday, i think Birdrun could be huge value. I really like Mott in these dirt route races on Nyra circuit, Birdrun had no chance last time out...extended layoff and caught chasing loose on the lead, wire winner Percussion - who has moved up in Pletcher barn but really hope for a much more honest pace here and hope someone else goes early w/ Percussion. Maybe i'm wrong and Birdrun is over the hill but at 12-1 ML im going to take a chance that we see a great effort from the Mott trained 7 yo and will be playing to WIN.
Click to expand...
In the Jaipur on Friday, I like Artest at a good price to run down what looks to be quite a bit of speed.
 
I keep coming back to Fast Falcon in the Brooklyn, the distance and probable weather make it a really tough race to cap though.
 
Agree with Fast Falcon, his 10 furlong efforts in the Travers and JCGC last year as a 3YO fit well in here. 2nd off the layoff after a decent enough effort at 9 furlongs, on an off Belmont track no less. Looks like he's prime for a strong effort here.

Not sure what to do with the South American horses. Calidoscopio burned me in the BC Marathon last year, but for crying out loud he's 10 years old! Quick Casablanca looks interesting and has Rosario, tough to ignore.

The longshot Keep Me Informed looks intriguing. Has a nice pedigree for distance and is coming off a pretty nice win at Belmont.
 
Rain takes all races off the turf today, including the Jaipur. Damn weather is killing some big race days this year.
 
I may play some races today, love the input. You guys looked that undercard for tomorrow yet?

I go to Colonial Downs a couple times per year and love. Gonna venture out to Kentucky Derby next year.
 
damn, i really want to get to Colonial.

Rain washed the Jaipur off the grass and now looks as if Reload will prove to be very tough in there.

Will be getting to work on Saturday's card very shortly.
 
Really wanted to play some today but the rain has washed away my enthusiasm a bit. Will look at the undercard tonight.
 
The 4th race today is the only undercard that interests me, as most of the field is in tact. Appears to be plenty of speed in here and looking at the 8-Dighton who should sit a nice stalking trip on the outside, even though this is a slight step up in class from his last which was a 1/2 length win in the slop here at Belmont going one less furlong today, he ran respectfully against some decent talent doen in Florida this winter like Declan's Warrior and Honorable Dillon.

8 to Win and 8/2-6-7 ex and tri keys
 
[TABLE="class: toteboard, width: 729"]
<thead style="border-color: white; background-color: rgb(100, 100, 100); font-weight: bold; color: white;">[TR]
[TH="align: center"]Status[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Track[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]R#[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Wager[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Runner(s)[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Conditions[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Bet Amt[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Return Amt[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Won/Lost[/TH]
[/TR]
</thead><tfoot style="background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246); border-color: white;">[TR]
[TD="class: alignR, colspan: 5, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: total alignR, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: total amount, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: total amount, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="class: total amount, align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: total open alignR, colspan: 5, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: total alignR, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: total amount, align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"] [/TD]
[/TR]
</tfoot><tbody id="rbRows" style="border-color: white; background-color: rgb(235, 235, 235);">[TR]
[TD="class: alignL, align: center"]COMPLETED: 562d5-b546f[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]BEL[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#4[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]$1 Trifecta[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2,8,​WT,2,6,8,​WT,1,5,6[/TD]
[TD="class: alignL faded, align: center"]none[/TD]
[TD="class: amount bet, align: right"]$ 10.00[/TD]
[TD="class: amount return, align: right"]$ 107.25[/TD]
[TD="class: amount wonlost, align: right"]+ $ 97.25[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Im gonna have some fun on the 5 race. 11 huge favorite. Gonna play probably 8/9 wps and in exactas. Might add 3.
 
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