The 145th Belmont Stakes

Gonna nibble a little at the late pick 4:

Race 7 - 9,10 have speed and class edge

Race 8 - 1,2,3,6,9 - total shitshow, these five haven't outright sucked at this level

Race 9 - 7, 11, 12 - two logical MTO's and #7 might be lone speed on a track that's favoring it a little

Race 10 - 6, 8 - sticking with Fast Falcon as the best horse in the field, but can't ignore Ruler on Ice reprising his Belmont win in the mud
 
Usually play a tri for cheap and didn't. Top 3 horses finished. ugh.

I have 3, 9, and 10 for the double.
 
Gandolf said:
Gonna nibble a little at the late pick 4:

Race 7 - 9,10 have speed and class edge

Race 8 - 1,2,3,6,9 - total shitshow, these five haven't outright sucked at this level

Race 9 - 7, 11, 12 - two logical MTO's and #7 might be lone speed on a track that's favoring it a little

Race 10 - 6, 8 - sticking with Fast Falcon as the best horse in the field, but can't ignore Ruler on Ice reprising his Belmont win in the mud
Click to expand...
Bol Gandy. Dont think i'll play the pk4 today but will be using Fast Falcon in my Brooklyn/Belmont doubles.
 
Play2win said:
Bol Gandy. Dont think i'll play the pk4 today but will be using Fast Falcon in my Brooklyn/Belmont doubles.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I'm just a sucker for the Pick 4. Keeping it light considering only 28 horses and 15 scratches.
 
played Brooklyn/Belmont DD's (1) Birdrun and (6) Fast Falcon with (2) Freedom Child and smaller using 1,6 w/ (6) Incognito
 
comes 5-12-10-11

although 5 drifted big time, nyra stewards never take these down...unless contact is made
 
Unreal run by Calidoscopio...AGAIN.

Silky Sullivan like.

Percussion almost stole it with those steady 24 and change fractions.
 
Saw this posted by Nyra handicapper Andy Serling about turf conditions on Saturday:

The rails will be coming down on Saturday, so we will be racing on a pristine part of the course that hasn't been used in weeks. These courses are VERY firm.
 
Nice job guys. I'm gonna be much of tommorow unfortunately. Gonna try to get some plays posted in the am.
 
Tough to do this the night before...not knowing conditions, scratches or if any track biases exist but:


6/8 Belmont Day

R1: #5 Tycoon Cat will likely take some $ in here, some angles to like: first off the claim for meets leading trainer and cuts back from 1m to 6f but after all he is 2 for 45 life and also 0 for 7 on wet tracks. I think there will be alot of early speed in this race and could set up for a horse like the sneaky #10 Meet the Mets: this colt was the most impressive ny bred juvenile that debuted @ Saratoga last summer and then ran 2nd in a 6.5F Alw race then a 125k state bred stakes going 7f - 12 post too big of a move up and distance, came back in May after being off since Oct and returns to regular jockey, Castellano. Moisture in track should not be an issue as this colt is sired by Grandslam. A couple of horses that could be around at the finish are #3 Saint Arthur and #12 Comandante, originally gave these two a shot at top spot but feel both of their chances will be compromised due to being too close to or on what figures to be a hot pace.

R2: #1 Schoolyard Dreams, again for leading trainer at meet Jacobson will take $. He did just run on 6/2 but that's a high percentage move for this barn and he takes a huge drop in class here. #5 Odea is my top choice. Could get loose on lead, 3 for 3 on wet tracks, turf to dirt, only dirt loss to date was vs Big Business (7 for 10 on Nyra circuit). Another contender is the Chad Brown, cutback #7 Integrity - who gets favorable post draw to outside setting up possible stalking trip behind Odea.

R3: If race is OFF the turf: im way against #6 (if not scratched and likely fav). Horses im interested in on dirt are: #9 Atlantic's Smile, debuts for pretty under-rated trainer i love on this circuit and does great work w/ firsters, 3 yo filly is sib to NY bred stakes winner Wildcat's Smile who also raced for these connections. #2 Mononoke makes second start of year so could improve esp since last race was his best and showed speed taking off blinkers and #11 Three Times Bea could be a sneaky longshot in here, showed nothing in only career race but that was on turf, so maybe it can run a little on dirt for trainer a respect a ton. MTO's #13 and #14 will likely take alot of the $, i don't think they're anything special.
 
R4: #9 Native Singer is another firster from Galluscio barn (see R3 #9), #1 El Genio adds lasix and blinkers, #4 Bernardo improved in last start stretching out to 1M, #2 Pete and David 2nd off layoff improved 44 beyer points stretching out and running on off track are the ones i'll be looking to use in early pk 4's. #10 Private Irving A could be part of pace but non winning outfit (5 for 109 this year) will not be on my tickets.

R5: #6 Howie's Tiz is likely best in here, i have no knocks on him and thought he ran very good last time out. I think #3 Rap d'Oro is interesting and likely decent price - 3 back very wide @ FG then switched to very good Mike Hushion barn, broke from rail @ Aqu and ran 2nd to Incognito (see Belmont Stakes) and last was a throw out turf race now back to dirt and could be the sneaky one. #9 Risky Asset and #7 Moreno - turf to dirt and adds blinkers, could be speeds that hold for a piece.

R6: Easy Goer: #2 Power Broker will be a big fav and i think it's worth taking a shot against him. I like #5 New Line the best. 3 yo colt has really improved in his two dirt starts since adding lasix and last time out ran well vs track bias. #8 Wabbajack is my 2nd selection, 2nd off layoff could improve off maiden win over track and two back at Gulfstream finished 1.5 lengths ahead of Freedom Child (see Belmont Stakes). #9 Irsaal has improved since adding lasix and blinkers and on off tracks beat Belmont runner Midnight Taboo (don't really like) in his last start.

R7: True North: #1 Justin Phillip, i lose all value with since is coupled w/ 1A Fast Bullet - who i don't like and #5 Caixa Electronica are my top two contenders. Both should have nice trips behind the early speeds of #6 Sage Valley and #4 Off the Jak.
 
R8: Just A Game: #1 Hungry Island, #2 Stephanie's Kitten and #3 Centre Court will start off all stakes pk 4's for most, including myself but i'll also be using #5 Laugh Out Loud who makes her US debut for owner Martin Schwartz who brings horses here from Europe very often, just to hand them over to Chad Brown...whose barn this filly is likely already in. Laugh Out Loud is nothing but class having run in 4 Group 1's and 2 Group 2's, two back vs Siyouma and Elusive Kate. Last time out was very ugly but i excuse it as it was off a 7 month layoff and was vs Group 2 boys, now back w/ fillies and mares. #4 Dayatthespa is a filly i like alot but course conditions likely wont be to her liking and the fact that she has to deal with the early speed of #6 Mizdirection, who i don't like at all here and think she also will dislike the going.
 
R9: Woody Stephens: #9 Clearly Now is one of my better plays on the card and will be a single on my main pk 4 tix. Clearly Now ran huge last time out dueling 3 wide in very hot pace that melted, even though widest of other speeds and hot pace put them away just to do all the dirty work for #1 Declan's Warrior who is at a post disadvantage here breaking from the rail, and he's struggled in past breaking from inside...breaking slowly both times, however anyone coming off the pace has a shot for 2nd or 3rd since we'll see an extremely hot early pace from #11 Let Em Shine and #6 Zee Bros, #2,4,10 likely to add to that pace...Closers i'll be using underneath are #3 Capo Bastone, #5 Honorable Dillon and #7 Forty Tales.
 
R10: Manhattan: #1 Point of Entry is a very likely winner and will be on my pk 4's however i'll also be using #5 Optimizer - who may not be the class of Point of Entry, moves way up with boggy turf conditions we could see and ran a pretty tough trip 3rd last out on Preakness Day. Optimizer ran 3rd to 24-1 loose on the lead longshot, lost position while stalking leader, in pretty tight on inside...the same horse (Howe Great) leaned on him twice either costing him room or position, and when clear which was way too late made a nice run to wire to only be beaten half length. Those are the two i want in pk 4's, as far as betting race individually... i'll be using #4 Real Solution and #9 Finnegans Wake on the bottom of some exactas and tri's. A couple of cappers i respect alot have told me they like #8 Twilight Eclipse, i can see it and won't be shocked...just think the two big races he had at Calder and Gulfsteam, both track records...were on rock hard turf courses, likely not to have that here.
 
R11 Belmont: #2 Freedom Child is my top choice, capped him to win on dry track based on the fact that i think he's going to love going the 1 1/2 Mile distance, but moisture won't hurt his chances as he just blew away the field in the Peter Pan (Belmont Prep) by over 13 lengths in the slop. Freedom Child having inside post could help, even though he wired field in last could let #7 Oxbow go to front and stalk on inside. Don't like Oxbow's chances here. #5 Orb is the class and likely winner, will be on my pk 4's as well as #6 Incognito - who of the longshots is the one i want, tons of long distance breeding on both sides of family, based on pp's of last race i figured he may not like an off track...so why like him again where he may see an off track, after watching replay of Peter Pan just think he never got into it...never had good footing and never had mud thrown in his face before, maybe better position...stretching out and having that experience moves him up today. Guess it comes down to i really don't care for the others: #9 Revolutionary and #14 Golden Soul were 2nd and 3rd to Orb in the Derby, and while like Orb were aided by hot pace...had much better trips than Orb had and present no value, as far as win in this race imo...that's why i'm against them, i don't think #12 Palice Malice will like the 1 1/2M distance, some think Pletcher's filly #13 Unlimited Budget has a chance, i'm not a big fan...i did have Pletcher's filly that won the Belmont, Rags to Riches...but unlike Ulimited Budget, she was bred for long distances...dam sire of Valid Appeal is ok for off tracks, but going 1 1/2M??? Not me.


Did not look at R12 or R13 yet.



Rough Draft for All Stakes Pk 4:

R8) 1,2,3,5
R9) 9
R10) 1,5
R11) 2,5,6
 
track should dry out as day goes on.


[h=1]Track Conditions[/h][h=3]Track & Turf Conditions for 6/8/2013[/h]Morning Time Weather:Sunny

Track Conditions:Muddy

Turf Conditions:Yielding

Races Off the Turf:3

Daily Notes:
Both turf rails @ 0

Conditions last updated: 6/8/2013 7:07:06 AM
 

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"] BELMONT PARK [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5, align: center"] SCRATCHES AND PROGRAM CHANGES FOR SATURDAY, 6/8/2013 [/TD]

[TD="class: SmallTxt, colspan: 5, align: center"]Last Updated: 10:13:26 AM[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"]

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 2"] TRACK CONDITIONS [/TD]

[TD="width: 20%, colspan: 1"] Weather: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]MOSTLY CLOUDY 61 (Morning)
MOSTLY CLOUDY 74 (Post)[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] Track: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]MUDDY[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] Turf: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]YIELDING[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] Turf Races: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]8, 10, 12, 13[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] Inner: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Set at 0 Ft[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] Widener: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Set at 0 Ft[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 2"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] P6 Carryover: [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]NONE Takeout - 15.00 %[/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"]

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 1"] DAILY NOTES [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"]*** GUARANTEED $1 MILLION PICK SIX & LATE PICK 4 - JUNE 8th - BELMONT STAKES DAY*** [/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"]

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 5"] SCRATCHES [/TD]

[TD="width: 6%, colspan: 1, align: center"] Race [/TD]
[TD="width: 12%, colspan: 1, align: center"] Program # [/TD]
[TD="width: 26%, colspan: 1"] Horse [/TD]
[TD="width: 21%, colspan: 1"] Reason [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"] Notes [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Comandante[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1 (poe)[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Schoolyard Dreams[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Part of Entry[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]SUPERFECTA ADDED[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Take Down Two[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Sophie's Turn[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]OFF TURF[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]It's Your Dime[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Bahiyya Island[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Funky Cat[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Captain Davrick[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Speechmaker[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Reload[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Quick Casablanca (CHI)[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Stake[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Speaking of Which (IRE)[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Stake[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]12[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]One Smokin Cat[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Bond Vigilante[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Ultimate Empire[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Reggie D[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Saturday Appeal[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Marquet Rebel[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]East of Danzig[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Steward[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Sovereign Default[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Handsome Harbor[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Veterinarian[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: IText, colspan: 1"]Political Justice[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Early--Main Track Only[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"][/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"]

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 4"] JOCKEY CHANGES [/TD]

[TD="width: 10%, colspan: 1, align: center"] Race [/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, colspan: 1, align: center"] Program # [/TD]
[TD="width: 30%, colspan: 1"] Horse [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"] Changes [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Isn'tshewonderfull[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Cornelio Velasquez[/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 5"]

<tbody>
[TD="colspan: 4"] MISCELLANEOUS CHANGES [/TD]

[TD="width: 10%, colspan: 1, align: center"] Race [/TD]
[TD="width: 15%, colspan: 1, align: center"] Program # [/TD]
[TD="width: 30%, colspan: 1"] Horse [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"] Changes [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Do I Amuse You[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]+1[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Saint Arthur[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]RIDGLING[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]4[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Cay to Pomeroy[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]GELDING[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Stealth Steed[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]NO BLINKERS LAST OR TODAY[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 4"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]14[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Concealed[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]BLINKERS ON[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]16[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Patriot's Jewel[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]+2 / BLINKERS OFF[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 4"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]7[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]1A[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Fast Bullet[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]+1[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 4"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]9[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]8[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Tenango[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]+1[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1"] [/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]11[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Let Em Shine[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]+1[/TD]

[TD="colspan: 4"] [/TD]

[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]13[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1, align: center"]3[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]Foolish Tiger[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 1"]BLINKERS OFF[/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]

</tbody>
 
1: wps 9
ex box 5,9,10
tri 5/9, 10/5/9/7, 10/5/9/7

2: wps 7
ex box 5,9,7
tri box 9,7,5

3: wps 9
ex box 13, 9, 2
tri box 13, 9, 2

4: wps 1
ex box 1,4,9
tri box 1,4,9

5: wps 6
ex box 6,1,3
tri box 6,7,1,3

6: wps 5
ex box 5,8,9
tri box 5, 8, 9, 2

7: wps 4 (big)
ex box 4,6


8: wps 1
ex box 3, 6, 1

9: wps 7
ex box 7,3,9,1
tri box 7,3,9,1

10: wps 5, 8
ex box 5,8,1
tri box 1,5,8,3

11: wps 2, 7, 6
ex box 2, 7, 6, 5
tri 2/7, 6/2/7/5/9, 2/3/5/6/9/12/

12: wps 10
ex box 10, 7, 1
tri box 10, 7, 1

13. wps 4
ex box 4, 11, 8
tri box 4, 11, 8
 
Race 6: #9 Irsaal Seems to have become a new horse in his last 2 after the gelding and adding Lasix, should be sitting back about 4-5 lengths what should be an honest pace, won over this course at this distance on what should be similar footing last month and is my top choice. #2 Power Broker, trained by Bob Baffert, won the G1 Front Runner last September in Santa Anita is probably the class of the race gonna be too a short price for me in what appears to be a very competitive race. #5 New Line shows a nice overall progression of speed figures and I like the work he has done in the mornings coming up to this one including a bullet 47.3 earlier this week. #8 Wabbajack broke through with the Maiden win last time after just coming up short in 2 tough races at Gulfstream this winter, first time against winners is usually a tough assignment, but this improving colt should be sitting close to the front and might be able to run down the ones ahead of him while getting first jump on those behind. The one horse I'm not sure on is #7 Micromanage, Pletcher trainee was ambitiously placed in the G1 Champagne and G2 Remsen last year and then went on the shelf 6 months before coming back to win a slow allowance race in the slop in Monmouth, he should improve off that effort but not sure if he will be up to this challenge, at anything above the 12-1 ML becomes interesting.
 
Race 7: #6 Sage Valley impressed last time out in that he showed he doesn't need the lead to win, that means he can let the speedy part of the entry, Fast Bullet set the early fractions. Winner of 4 straight picked off right where he left off the 6 month break and appears to be firing on all cylinders, the pick. #1 Justin Phillips loses any value as being part of the entry, but probably shouldn't be left out of any multi race wagers or underneath at least in any exotics. Any time you have a sprint with a live pace you have to take the #5 Caixa Eletronica seriously as he will be flying down the lane. The 8 year old has 9 in the money scores in 10 tries at the distance, 7 times in the money in 7 attempts on a wet track, and 5 cashes in 8 Belmont runs, including a 3/4 length win in the race last year over Justin Phillip in what was an incredible run. 6 to win and 5-6 exacta box.
 
BOL Play2win. Might have to lean on your picks as I only got to cap races 6,7 and 11. Off hand I do think the Stephens is loaded with pace and ripe for meltdown, and the Belmont should be run at faster fractions than the Brooklyn was, where Calidoscopio proved deep closers can win even with average fractions,
 
Race 8: Thoughts may change some here depending on how the grass dries out this afternoon and how it is running with the rail down. The one horse I don't like regardless of the conditions is #6 Mizdirection, shipping from out west and not running on the down hill SA turf and running on ground that will not be firm are enough factors that I will ignore. The softer the ground the better for #1 Hungry Island in this one, she likes the distance and the Belmont grass, but will be hard pressed to turn the tables on #2 Stephanie's Kitten who beat her by a neck in Churchill last month, and loses Castellano to the #4 Dayathespa. #4 Dayathespa won when smartly placed in a state bred stakes here last month off a 6 month layoff, for a sharp turf trainer Chad Brown. Should be setting the early fractions and if not pressed too much my Mizdirection may be able to steal it from the lead. #3 Center Court only has 6 wins and 4 places in 10 turf races but all have come on a firm footing and all but one was at a longer distance than today's mile, staking style should give her first run at Dayathespa before Hungry Island and Stephanie's Kitten get rolling down the stretch. #2 Stephanie's Kitten posted a career best 100 beyer number in her last off layoff, about 10 points higher than previous best and although you would expect some move forward in the second off the bench, think he may see some regression here and although I certainly would be surprised, expect the #1 or #4 to get the better of her here. 4 to win 1-4/1-2-3-4 tri
 
Quick note on Race 2, #4 Bad Hombre is a horse I've followed this year as my friend's uncle owns a piece of this horse. He is probably in a little over his head here but has run well on wet tracks in last 2 and has been improving. Connections say they do think he will be running well today but know there are some tough horses in here.

4-5 exacta box and 2-4-5 tri box
 
Race 9: Think an early speed duel between #11 Let Em Shine and #6 Zee Bros and possibly #10 Merit Man will set this race up perfectly for #9 Clearly Now who should be sitting right behind the front runners and gonna first jump on the closers. #1 Declan's Warrior has done nothing wrong in his five starts and I think is a bit of an over lay at the 8-1 ML and the drawing the rail will either enable him to save ground and make a good run down the stretch or can give him traffic and other issues depending on how the track is drying, will include underneath. #7 Forty Tales coming in off a nice win the Derby Trial and should appreciate the expected fast early fractions, will be closing down the lane. #3 Capo Bastone I think would appreciate another panel and don't think he will get up in time to be much of a factor here. #5 Honorable Dillon is trying to get back to the form he showed in winning the Hutchenson back in February and should get the pace to help that cause, dangerous. #8 Tenango is certainly worth a long look at the price, Jacobson trainee seems to like the Belmont footing winning in a romp 2 back going a mile in the slop and just getting caught by Declan's Warrior in his last, will be using underneath and a small wps wager.

9 win
9/1-5-7-8 ex key
9-1/1-5-7-8-9 tri
8 wps (small)
 
Race 10: Is #1 Point of Entry's race to lose, as are most races he runs in. The horse that intrigues me here is #7 Bombaguia had a nightmarish trip in his last pinned down on the rail and had to check 3 times before swinging outside for running room a little too late and just missed catching the winner. Should be sitting right outside the early speed #6 Plainview and might be the one they have to catch down the stretch.
 
Race 11: Pace should be honest and something between the blistering Derby and sluggish Preakness, #2 Freedom Child ran a monster in the Peter Pan but that was a freakish effort for him and one I think would be tough to duplicate never mind improve off of that effort, think he will use a lot of energy early but breeding suggests the distance should be within his grasp and may hold on for a minor piece. #3 Overanalyze I thought ran a better Derby than given credit for although he was not a factor at all, gets a switch to Velazquez which may help and expect to see him a bit more involved early sitting about 4-5 back and in a position to challenge down the stretch. Rode the #5 Orb wagon from the Fountain of Youth through the Derby and expect a much better effort than he showed down in Pimlico, still tough for any horse running in all 3 triple crown legs and although he is the most probable winner here there is enough going on to look other places for the top spot considering the short price you will get on him here. #6 Incognito didn't like the slop in the Peter Pan last time out, was just overmatched there, or a combination of the 2. Well bred horse should have enough stamina to be moving late and pass tired horses, will include underneath. #6 Oxbow finally got a decent post position in the Preakness, after be stuck outside in the 10 spot for 3 straight races before drawing the rail in the Derby, and took advantage of that and the complete lack of pressure on the lead to take that wire to wire. Will not get that kind of trip here and don't like his chances too much. #9 Revolutionary ran a pretty good third in the derby as he took advantage of that hot pace, wouldn't surprise if he ran a big one here but think the price is gonna be a little short. I don't think #11 Vyjack or #12 Palace Malice want any part of a mile and a half, and mostly for the same reasons I have no interest in the filly #13 Unlimited Budget. #14 Golden Soul ran big race in the Derby to get the place but with just 1 work since then, think this lightly raced horse won't have the set up he did in that race.

I'm gonna take a chance with #3 Overanalyze here and use with Orb, Freedom Child, Incognito and Revolutionary underneath.
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Race 11: Pace should be honest and something between the blistering Derby and sluggish Preakness, #2 Freedom Child ran a monster in the Peter Pan but that was a freakish effort for him and one I think would be tough to duplicate never mind improve off of that effort, think he will use a lot of energy early but breeding suggests the distance should be within his grasp and may hold on for a minor piece. #3 Overanalyze I thought ran a better Derby than given credit for although he was not a factor at all, gets a switch to Velazquez which may help and expect to see him a bit more involved early sitting about 4-5 back and in a position to challenge down the stretch. Rode the #5 Orb wagon from the Fountain of Youth through the Derby and expect a much better effort than he showed down in Pimlico, still tough for any horse running in all 3 triple crown legs and although he is the most probable winner here there is enough going on to look other places for the top spot considering the short price you will get on him here. #6 Incognito didn't like the slop in the Peter Pan last time out, was just overmatched there, or a combination of the 2. Well bred horse should have enough stamina to be moving late and pass tired horses, will include underneath. #6 Oxbow finally got a decent post position in the Preakness, after be stuck outside in the 10 spot for 3 straight races before drawing the rail in the Derby, and took advantage of that and the complete lack of pressure on the lead to take that wire to wire. Will not get that kind of trip here and don't like his chances too much. #9 Revolutionary ran a pretty good third in the derby as he took advantage of that hot pace, wouldn't surprise if he ran a big one here but think the price is gonna be a little short. I don't think #11 Vyjack or #12 Palace Malice want any part of a mile and a half, and mostly for the same reasons I have no interest in the filly #13 Unlimited Budget. #14 Golden Soul ran big race in the Derby to get the place but with just 1 work since then, think this lightly raced horse won't have the set up he did in that race.

I'm gonna take a chance with #3 Overanalyze here and use with Orb, Freedom Child, Incognito and Revolutionary underneath.
Click to expand...
i noticed i never mentioned Overanalyze, i do agree that he's a contender and will be using him in at least one of my pk 4 tix. Bol today, Lloyd. :cheers:
 
Updated Race 8 thoughts following the scratch of #4 Dayathespa, I'll lean more on #1 Hungry Island move the #2 Stephanie's Kitten up a little and now include the #5 Laugh Out Loud. #1 to win 1-2/1-2-3-5
 
Play2win said:
i noticed i never mentioned Overanalyze, i do agree that he's a contender and will be using him in at least one of my pk 4 tix. Bol today, Lloyd. :cheers:
Click to expand...

Thanks buddy, let's cash some tickets today. Great job on your write ups, always insightful. :shake:
 
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