Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
I like the #4 and the #6 Broadway Empire for a price. 4-6exb, 4,6/3,4,5,6,11/3,4,5,6,11tri
The 30th Breeders Cup, Nov 1 & 2
- Thread starter Gandolf
- Start date
DaRaiders
Pretty much a regular
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
cant copy and paste this but if interested in watching replay of Al Thakhira's last race: http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20131012/2288622/13402559
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
replay of Chriselliam's last race: http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20130927/2278878/13338987
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Juv Filly Turf: Al Thakhira ran huge in last...Chriselliam won Group 1 in last and beaten a nk vs boys two back, good recent work at SA according to Welsch from Drf...Ready to Act will be on my tickets...Colonel Joan could be a bomb that gets a piece...right now im sort of against Vorda - questioning the distance with her, she's yet to go past 6F, in her last race connections decided to stay @ 6F instead of running in Group 1 the next day going 1M...thinking connections don't think she wants the distance either.
DaRaiders
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Bro...hope the 8 and 2 do work here
DaRaiders
Pretty much a regular
GL Gandolf
DaRaiders
Pretty much a regular
Well I have the 2 & 6 in the double so I'll hedge with a win bet on the 4
DaRaiders
Pretty much a regular
Family's great. Business is on the upswing....and we're hanging on the best weekend of horse racing all year...it don't get better.
:cheers:
How's it with you?
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
cant complain brother, lets get paid this weekend :shake:
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
BC 11/2
R4 Juv Fillies: #1 and #9 are obvious ones imo, #1 moves up w/ speed bias (also rail+) and other one I want is #7 who has a win @ 1 1/16 and should not be too far off early pace.
R5 F&M Turf: Really like #2, one of days best...multi race maybe use #1 Dank - negative is short price, huge win in Bev D but nothing since...so a lot of travel miles without a recent race...#4 is a possible longshot I want to use, too close to fast pace in last.
R6 F&M Sprint: All of these sprints look difficult today (f&m spr,spr,turf spr)...4,7,8 is where I landed...im against likely fav #11 Groupie Doll who had poor campaign this year and still think better on synth...#10 could be an underneath longshot...considering S+ bias I may have to use 5,12...also against #9, thinking she can't get 7F.
R7 Turf Sprint: I want the ones that have wins over SA downhill course...leaning #5 strongest, also using #3, since I like him may have to use #6...#2 is a crazy 30-1 ml longshot but had tough trip in last vs #3 and #6...against #12 - mare has to deal w/ other possible early speeds of #4,7,11,13.
R8 Juv: Against #13 Havana due to post, S+ bias moves him up but with short run to 1st turn from 12 hole can he clear possible other speeds? Mixed feelings on another one that'll take action, #6 only started once - was impressive debut winner but one race and now BC? And reports of being green and cocking head in works is not exactly a confidence builder...leaning #3,4 hardest right now...not thrilled about seeing work reports on #3 that stated "has turf action in works" - meaning clockers questioning his dirt ability, if near 12-1 ml I still have to use...if #14 drifts up to a big price, i'll have to use him...and #10 is a ?
R9 Turf: #4 Little Mike is my X-factor in race...I hate him and he hates me, every time he wins he beats me, usually when im about to hit something decent too...fuck him, hope #2,5 and possibly #11 keep him busy early...#7 and #12 for me.
R10 Sprint: #1,3,6 are my main ones...may also use #9
R11 Mile: I'm against #8 Wise Dan in here...#1,2,5,10 for me...and may add #7. If #5 is over bet I can see taking a stand against - 3yo vs older, wheeling back on short rest after big win and shipping.
R12 Classic: Love #6 Mucho Macho Man...could also use #5,8,12... I'm against #7,9 who have to deal with other speed of #4 - who i'm also against.
As of right now, my best plays are looking like...
R5: #2
R12: #6
more on Saturday, BOL :cheers:
R4 Juv Fillies: #1 and #9 are obvious ones imo, #1 moves up w/ speed bias (also rail+) and other one I want is #7 who has a win @ 1 1/16 and should not be too far off early pace.
R5 F&M Turf: Really like #2, one of days best...multi race maybe use #1 Dank - negative is short price, huge win in Bev D but nothing since...so a lot of travel miles without a recent race...#4 is a possible longshot I want to use, too close to fast pace in last.
R6 F&M Sprint: All of these sprints look difficult today (f&m spr,spr,turf spr)...4,7,8 is where I landed...im against likely fav #11 Groupie Doll who had poor campaign this year and still think better on synth...#10 could be an underneath longshot...considering S+ bias I may have to use 5,12...also against #9, thinking she can't get 7F.
R7 Turf Sprint: I want the ones that have wins over SA downhill course...leaning #5 strongest, also using #3, since I like him may have to use #6...#2 is a crazy 30-1 ml longshot but had tough trip in last vs #3 and #6...against #12 - mare has to deal w/ other possible early speeds of #4,7,11,13.
R8 Juv: Against #13 Havana due to post, S+ bias moves him up but with short run to 1st turn from 12 hole can he clear possible other speeds? Mixed feelings on another one that'll take action, #6 only started once - was impressive debut winner but one race and now BC? And reports of being green and cocking head in works is not exactly a confidence builder...leaning #3,4 hardest right now...not thrilled about seeing work reports on #3 that stated "has turf action in works" - meaning clockers questioning his dirt ability, if near 12-1 ml I still have to use...if #14 drifts up to a big price, i'll have to use him...and #10 is a ?
R9 Turf: #4 Little Mike is my X-factor in race...I hate him and he hates me, every time he wins he beats me, usually when im about to hit something decent too...fuck him, hope #2,5 and possibly #11 keep him busy early...#7 and #12 for me.
R10 Sprint: #1,3,6 are my main ones...may also use #9
R11 Mile: I'm against #8 Wise Dan in here...#1,2,5,10 for me...and may add #7. If #5 is over bet I can see taking a stand against - 3yo vs older, wheeling back on short rest after big win and shipping.
R12 Classic: Love #6 Mucho Macho Man...could also use #5,8,12... I'm against #7,9 who have to deal with other speed of #4 - who i'm also against.
As of right now, my best plays are looking like...
R5: #2
R12: #6
more on Saturday, BOL :cheers:
Last edited:
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Breeders Cup Saturday
R4:#1 Artemis Agrotera, broke maiden in first asking on the rail and came back for a G1 win, should be near the lead and saving ground along the rail, my pick. #6 Concave first time over dirt but has worked well at SA leading up to this, if the pace is hot enough early on she may be able to get up but look to use more underneath in some exotics. #7 Untapable has a win at this distance in a G2 at CD, should be close enough to the lead to have a shot at the top spot, dangerous. #8 Scandalous Act has the form and running style for this track but has been beating up on restricted company in FL and taking a really big step up in class, pass. #10 She's A Tiger will have to overcome the outside post which may be tough for a horse that probably needs to be out in front, will be involved early but even with the bias don't see her holding on to the top spot maybe a minor award. Picks: #1 over #6,7,10
R5: #2 Romantica is a specialist at the distance, 3 wins and a 2nd in 4 career starts, and appears to like the firm turf which she will get on Saturday. Might be able to get the early jump on the #1 Dank and take it home. Dank is the rightful favorite here and should be respected but is going to be a short price. Curiously absent since the Beverly D win which was first time Lasix. #4 Alterite has shown an ability to make a move through the lane and is dangerous at a price. #8 Emollient should be closer than she was last time out on synthetic, has a win on the grass at this distance and if can repeat the late move she made in last will be involved at the wire. Picks: #1,2 over #4,8.
R6: #11 Groupie Doll is the defending champ but has only raced 3 times this year following the effort she put in against the boys in the Cigar mile to close out last year. Certainly nowhere near last year's form and I believe is beatable here. #2 Book Review is very consistent but has only managed 1 win along with 3 seconds this year but does well at this distance and should be right there at the end. #4 Dance Card certainly needed the last off a long layoff, had shown speed last year while routing but don't know if she'll be up for this task or not and the biggest unknown to me here. #5 Teddy's Promise will be on or just off the lead question is will she have enough stamina to hang on for a piece. #6 Ismene is probably the speed of the speed but taking a step up in class and my guess will be pressed like she never has before. If they let her get away and slow things down on the front end and the bias is strong may not be be able to pass her late. #7 Summer Applause cuts back to 7F for the first time in a long time for a trainer who hits about 30% Route to Sprint, she may have enough early foot to not be to far off the pace early and should be moving late, will use underneath. #8 Dance to Bristol has been in the exacta in 18 of 19 lifetime starts should get a great stalking trip just behind the early speed and get the jump on the closers, my pick. #10 Great Hot was never involved in this race last year and not one of the most talented in here, but may benefit from a pace stand point and should get a good trip and the price will be right. #12 Sweet Lulu would be a lot more enticing if drawn a little to the inside, has early speed but will still probably be 3-4 wide at best around the turn and don't know if good enough to overcome that. Picks: #8 over #2,4,7,10,11
R7: Love watching these races on the downhill turf course here and think experience over the course is a must when handicapping these races. #2 Rock Me Baby cut back to a sprint over the course last time in his first graded stakes and was boxed in the final half furlong against many of these same rivals, probably in a little over his head with this bunch but at 30-1 or so will be on a couple of my tickets. #3 Chips All In won the aforementioned G3 Eddie D over this course in September and the San Simeon back in April, has good tactical speed and will be in the mix. #5 Caracortado came back last month in the Eddie D off a 19 month layoff to finish a game 4th less a than a length off the winner. Should improve off that effort and will be the one I key on in here. #6 Boat Trip, loved the late move he made in the last to just miss by a nose, should once again get plenty of pace to run into and will be moving late. #12 Mizdirection is perfect over the course including this race last year, will be looking to repeat once again off a long layoff and can't be ignored but will be against for top prize. #14 Unbridled's Note versatile runner has had some success over this course and from similar outside post positions, should be around at the end. Picks: #5,6 over #2,3,12,14
R9: #1 Vagabond Shoes seems to be coming into his ownlately and seems to like the extra distances he's been going if he can work a clear trip running late from the rail he may get up for a piece. #4 Little Mike, as mentioned by Play2win is the X factor, was the last indicative of him being back on his game after the shipping to the UAE early this year or a one race aberration? Will be in a different pace scenario today as there are no sprinters entered by the Ramsey's here to ensure a fast pace and he may be back on his usual lead controlling the fractions or does he rate again, undecided on how much I will use him if at all. #7 The Fugue is coming in off 2 Group 1 wins in Europe and will be adding Lasix and shedding a good amount of weight. With the way the Euros ran on Friday seems the one to beat. #8 Point of Entry, lightly raced this year but did win his only 2 attempts both Grade 1 efforts and did so with some impressive Beyer figures, nothing less 104 in his last 5 races. Like the work on grass Shug has been giving him and think it comes down to him and the #7. #9 Indy Point has run well in 2 of 3 American starts but those 2 were against softer fields and Stevens essentially pulled him up in the Arlington Million, don't get the 9-2 ML and don't see any value anywhere near that price. Both Ramsey entries, #10 Big Blue kitten and #12 Real Solution will be moving late but I prefer Real Solution who should get an earlier jump on his stable mate and will be right in the thick of it. Picks: #7,8,12 maybe #4
Will have my thought on the Sprint, Turf and Classic in the morning. BOL to all.
R4:#1 Artemis Agrotera, broke maiden in first asking on the rail and came back for a G1 win, should be near the lead and saving ground along the rail, my pick. #6 Concave first time over dirt but has worked well at SA leading up to this, if the pace is hot enough early on she may be able to get up but look to use more underneath in some exotics. #7 Untapable has a win at this distance in a G2 at CD, should be close enough to the lead to have a shot at the top spot, dangerous. #8 Scandalous Act has the form and running style for this track but has been beating up on restricted company in FL and taking a really big step up in class, pass. #10 She's A Tiger will have to overcome the outside post which may be tough for a horse that probably needs to be out in front, will be involved early but even with the bias don't see her holding on to the top spot maybe a minor award. Picks: #1 over #6,7,10
R5: #2 Romantica is a specialist at the distance, 3 wins and a 2nd in 4 career starts, and appears to like the firm turf which she will get on Saturday. Might be able to get the early jump on the #1 Dank and take it home. Dank is the rightful favorite here and should be respected but is going to be a short price. Curiously absent since the Beverly D win which was first time Lasix. #4 Alterite has shown an ability to make a move through the lane and is dangerous at a price. #8 Emollient should be closer than she was last time out on synthetic, has a win on the grass at this distance and if can repeat the late move she made in last will be involved at the wire. Picks: #1,2 over #4,8.
R6: #11 Groupie Doll is the defending champ but has only raced 3 times this year following the effort she put in against the boys in the Cigar mile to close out last year. Certainly nowhere near last year's form and I believe is beatable here. #2 Book Review is very consistent but has only managed 1 win along with 3 seconds this year but does well at this distance and should be right there at the end. #4 Dance Card certainly needed the last off a long layoff, had shown speed last year while routing but don't know if she'll be up for this task or not and the biggest unknown to me here. #5 Teddy's Promise will be on or just off the lead question is will she have enough stamina to hang on for a piece. #6 Ismene is probably the speed of the speed but taking a step up in class and my guess will be pressed like she never has before. If they let her get away and slow things down on the front end and the bias is strong may not be be able to pass her late. #7 Summer Applause cuts back to 7F for the first time in a long time for a trainer who hits about 30% Route to Sprint, she may have enough early foot to not be to far off the pace early and should be moving late, will use underneath. #8 Dance to Bristol has been in the exacta in 18 of 19 lifetime starts should get a great stalking trip just behind the early speed and get the jump on the closers, my pick. #10 Great Hot was never involved in this race last year and not one of the most talented in here, but may benefit from a pace stand point and should get a good trip and the price will be right. #12 Sweet Lulu would be a lot more enticing if drawn a little to the inside, has early speed but will still probably be 3-4 wide at best around the turn and don't know if good enough to overcome that. Picks: #8 over #2,4,7,10,11
R7: Love watching these races on the downhill turf course here and think experience over the course is a must when handicapping these races. #2 Rock Me Baby cut back to a sprint over the course last time in his first graded stakes and was boxed in the final half furlong against many of these same rivals, probably in a little over his head with this bunch but at 30-1 or so will be on a couple of my tickets. #3 Chips All In won the aforementioned G3 Eddie D over this course in September and the San Simeon back in April, has good tactical speed and will be in the mix. #5 Caracortado came back last month in the Eddie D off a 19 month layoff to finish a game 4th less a than a length off the winner. Should improve off that effort and will be the one I key on in here. #6 Boat Trip, loved the late move he made in the last to just miss by a nose, should once again get plenty of pace to run into and will be moving late. #12 Mizdirection is perfect over the course including this race last year, will be looking to repeat once again off a long layoff and can't be ignored but will be against for top prize. #14 Unbridled's Note versatile runner has had some success over this course and from similar outside post positions, should be around at the end. Picks: #5,6 over #2,3,12,14
R9: #1 Vagabond Shoes seems to be coming into his ownlately and seems to like the extra distances he's been going if he can work a clear trip running late from the rail he may get up for a piece. #4 Little Mike, as mentioned by Play2win is the X factor, was the last indicative of him being back on his game after the shipping to the UAE early this year or a one race aberration? Will be in a different pace scenario today as there are no sprinters entered by the Ramsey's here to ensure a fast pace and he may be back on his usual lead controlling the fractions or does he rate again, undecided on how much I will use him if at all. #7 The Fugue is coming in off 2 Group 1 wins in Europe and will be adding Lasix and shedding a good amount of weight. With the way the Euros ran on Friday seems the one to beat. #8 Point of Entry, lightly raced this year but did win his only 2 attempts both Grade 1 efforts and did so with some impressive Beyer figures, nothing less 104 in his last 5 races. Like the work on grass Shug has been giving him and think it comes down to him and the #7. #9 Indy Point has run well in 2 of 3 American starts but those 2 were against softer fields and Stevens essentially pulled him up in the Arlington Million, don't get the 9-2 ML and don't see any value anywhere near that price. Both Ramsey entries, #10 Big Blue kitten and #12 Real Solution will be moving late but I prefer Real Solution who should get an earlier jump on his stable mate and will be right in the thick of it. Picks: #7,8,12 maybe #4
Will have my thought on the Sprint, Turf and Classic in the morning. BOL to all.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Walking thru the Pick 5 and its massive carryover
Race 1 - Babies on the downhill sprint course. Would like to see some experience on the course and/or turnbacks and/or flashes against good company
1 - Showed early speed against Clenor, Nesso & Colonel Joan in the Surfer Girl, first effort on grass. Didn't finish, now gets turnback, second try on turf, could be sneaky although early speed not holding up on turf and there's more speed signed up.
2 - Was on the pace in G3 Jessamine last out, faded. Was well bet though at 9-1 in field of 10. Has raced in France and has a turf sprint in at Belmont on resume. First try on the downhill, but his class and turnback make him a use.
3 - Maiden with new trainer, workout reports showed him on wrong lead last time. Not ready.
4 - First try on turf, but 2 of his 3 sprint wins were on poly which could translate here. Likes to win, 3 for 5. Trainer knows how to move them to grass but the pedigree shows little to suggest it will work. A "B" ticket horse.
5 - Another maiden, showed speed in G1 Frontrunner before fading against the likes of Bondholder, Dances with Fate. Trainer has positive ROI moving them to turf, breeding on the dam side is good for grass, and workout reports are a positive. Leap of faith needed here with the inexperience but he's capable.
6 - Has run seven times but this is his first time on turf, pedigree is OK but not great. Last workout was mediocre, trying blinkers today along with turf, seems like trainer is running out of ideas and trying anything now. Stevens rode him the last five times but passes here. Seems like a no.
7 - Another maiden, closed to 2nd on downhill course last out, moves up in class here. Last workout was good and his style might fit against a field of front runner types. Would like to see a better jock on board though. "B" ticket for now.
8 - Favorite comes in from overseas where he was consistently competitive in stakes sprints. Gets Bejarano to ride and the workout reports were solid. Must use.
9 - Broke maiden in first turf try last out ON THE DOWNHILL COURSE. Pace was decent in that one, which is a positive. Talamo stays on and he actually has the best turf % of any jock in the field. Workout reports suggest he's holding his winning form. Outside post a plus as well. Must use.
A - 2,5,8,9
B - 4,7
Race 2 - 7 furlong stake with a small field with a stone cold favorite. But be wary of the line "small field, big prices".
1 - Runner up (and favorite) to Goldencents in the Santa Anita Derby has been off for 7 months, towers over this field in terms of class and ability. Only question is whether he's ready. Workout reports say he looks fit. Frankly if the King of SoCal racing can't have a 2-5 shot ready to win then there is no god.
2 - Has beaten only 4 horses in last 4 starts since moving to the Lukas barn, which is surprising given his rise back to glory this year. Seems unlikely and workout reports have been only fair.
3- Off the pace type gets Bejarano to ride but goes against the track bias and most of his success on poly. No thanks.
4 - Comes off a 6f Allowance win but knocked around a bunch of non-graded and G3 stakes this year with some 2nds and 3rds but no wins. A good bet to finish 3rd here.
5 - The horse to fear IMO for an upset shot. Has flashed sub 22 speed several times recently, including on the bullring at Fairplex. Also has a win at the 7f distance at Gulfstream going 22 flat and 44/3. Has run first or second in 7 of last 8, all against lesser company but he'll definitely be the one to catch which has proven to be challenge at times on this track.
A - 1
B - 5
Race 1 - Babies on the downhill sprint course. Would like to see some experience on the course and/or turnbacks and/or flashes against good company
1 - Showed early speed against Clenor, Nesso & Colonel Joan in the Surfer Girl, first effort on grass. Didn't finish, now gets turnback, second try on turf, could be sneaky although early speed not holding up on turf and there's more speed signed up.
2 - Was on the pace in G3 Jessamine last out, faded. Was well bet though at 9-1 in field of 10. Has raced in France and has a turf sprint in at Belmont on resume. First try on the downhill, but his class and turnback make him a use.
3 - Maiden with new trainer, workout reports showed him on wrong lead last time. Not ready.
4 - First try on turf, but 2 of his 3 sprint wins were on poly which could translate here. Likes to win, 3 for 5. Trainer knows how to move them to grass but the pedigree shows little to suggest it will work. A "B" ticket horse.
5 - Another maiden, showed speed in G1 Frontrunner before fading against the likes of Bondholder, Dances with Fate. Trainer has positive ROI moving them to turf, breeding on the dam side is good for grass, and workout reports are a positive. Leap of faith needed here with the inexperience but he's capable.
6 - Has run seven times but this is his first time on turf, pedigree is OK but not great. Last workout was mediocre, trying blinkers today along with turf, seems like trainer is running out of ideas and trying anything now. Stevens rode him the last five times but passes here. Seems like a no.
7 - Another maiden, closed to 2nd on downhill course last out, moves up in class here. Last workout was good and his style might fit against a field of front runner types. Would like to see a better jock on board though. "B" ticket for now.
8 - Favorite comes in from overseas where he was consistently competitive in stakes sprints. Gets Bejarano to ride and the workout reports were solid. Must use.
9 - Broke maiden in first turf try last out ON THE DOWNHILL COURSE. Pace was decent in that one, which is a positive. Talamo stays on and he actually has the best turf % of any jock in the field. Workout reports suggest he's holding his winning form. Outside post a plus as well. Must use.
A - 2,5,8,9
B - 4,7
Race 2 - 7 furlong stake with a small field with a stone cold favorite. But be wary of the line "small field, big prices".
1 - Runner up (and favorite) to Goldencents in the Santa Anita Derby has been off for 7 months, towers over this field in terms of class and ability. Only question is whether he's ready. Workout reports say he looks fit. Frankly if the King of SoCal racing can't have a 2-5 shot ready to win then there is no god.
2 - Has beaten only 4 horses in last 4 starts since moving to the Lukas barn, which is surprising given his rise back to glory this year. Seems unlikely and workout reports have been only fair.
3- Off the pace type gets Bejarano to ride but goes against the track bias and most of his success on poly. No thanks.
4 - Comes off a 6f Allowance win but knocked around a bunch of non-graded and G3 stakes this year with some 2nds and 3rds but no wins. A good bet to finish 3rd here.
5 - The horse to fear IMO for an upset shot. Has flashed sub 22 speed several times recently, including on the bullring at Fairplex. Also has a win at the 7f distance at Gulfstream going 22 flat and 44/3. Has run first or second in 7 of last 8, all against lesser company but he'll definitely be the one to catch which has proven to be challenge at times on this track.
A - 1
B - 5
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 3 - A highly competitive Grade 3 downhill turf sprint with plenty of experienced runners
1 - The most accomplished on the downhill, having won 4 out of 5, all within the last 13 months. Her two Grade 3 efforts have come up short though, although one was a 3 length loss to Mizdirection. Her times on the downhill have ranged from 111/3 to 113/1, which gives us a range to compare. Must use.
2 - 0 for 2 on turf and turning back from those efforts, first try on the downhill without much turf success is not a recipe for victory. Workouts have only been "eh". Pass.
3 - Cutback making her 2nd turf try, can throw out the first due to the soft conditions. Has some class from past graded stakes efforts on the poly. Gets Bejarano first time and also blinkers, although the trainer is only 1 for 16 with the move. Plus I don't think more early speed is what you necessarily want on the downhill. There's better in here.
4 - Consistent sprint winner (4 for 6) at lower levels steps up in class for her first turf try. Usually not a fan of closers first turf efforts. Pedigree for the switch is OK but nothing great. A little too much to expect a leap up here.
5 - Turnback horse won her 3rd straight in the Blue Northern in January and then faded to 4th in the China Doll, then disappeared for 7 months. Workout reports say she's Ok, not a lot of class to work with here though.
6 - Finished 4th on the downhill in last, 3 lengths behind Ponchatrain who's also in here today. Has not won since February, but it was on this course. 112/1 and 112/2 times in 2013. Workout report was good, she fits in here.
7 - Baffert commanding a rare European import. Has not won since July 2012 but is usually in the mix in some classy races. Gets Lasix first time. Tough to know what we'll see here but with Baffert and Garcia you can't ignore. Probably a B, maybe an A.
8 - Moves up in class after finishing a close third in a downhill allowance race to two others in the field (1 and 11). Has a win on the downhill (Oct 2012), times of 112/1, 112/3 and 113/1. Would need to be at her best which is not impossible.
9 - Ran her career top in the last, a blistering 111/2 on the downhill to win an optional claimer. Also ran a 112/1 on the course in March. If she duplicates her last effort she'll be very tough in her, and at a price. Off the pace style fits and price will be very nice price. Workouts may be suggesting a bounce here.
10 - Turnback has been very good in the Mullins barn in 2013, with two wins, a 2nd and 3rd in various restricted stakes. Tried the downhill twice in October 2012, going 112/1 and 113/2, both pre-Mullins. Seemed to be declining so she's had 2 month freshening and the workout reports says its been a big help. Talamo riding should also be a plus. Very dangerous late runner, the kind you like to take a shot with at 8-1.
11 - Finished a closing 2nd to Ponchatrain on the downhill last time running 112/1, with current jock/hottie Chantal Sutherland on board. Steps up in class here. Last workout was only so-so, some concern there. Running style and post are good fits. Probably a B horse for the price.
12 - Won a restricted stake on the downhill last time out going 111/3. 2nd win in a row, seems to enjoy turf going 3-1-0 in 4 tries. Has shown a powerful close consistently the last few races, which should be valuable here. Square priced, must use.
13 - Ungraded stakes win on the downhill last time going 111/4. Only her sixth race today, so she's still got some upside. Stevens commands respects and last workout was well received. Need to use.
Think this is a bit of a spread race and 112/1 or better ability is needed.
A - 1,6,9,10,12,13 (best of the best I'd say are 1, 10, 12, 13)
B - 7,8,11
1 - The most accomplished on the downhill, having won 4 out of 5, all within the last 13 months. Her two Grade 3 efforts have come up short though, although one was a 3 length loss to Mizdirection. Her times on the downhill have ranged from 111/3 to 113/1, which gives us a range to compare. Must use.
2 - 0 for 2 on turf and turning back from those efforts, first try on the downhill without much turf success is not a recipe for victory. Workouts have only been "eh". Pass.
3 - Cutback making her 2nd turf try, can throw out the first due to the soft conditions. Has some class from past graded stakes efforts on the poly. Gets Bejarano first time and also blinkers, although the trainer is only 1 for 16 with the move. Plus I don't think more early speed is what you necessarily want on the downhill. There's better in here.
4 - Consistent sprint winner (4 for 6) at lower levels steps up in class for her first turf try. Usually not a fan of closers first turf efforts. Pedigree for the switch is OK but nothing great. A little too much to expect a leap up here.
5 - Turnback horse won her 3rd straight in the Blue Northern in January and then faded to 4th in the China Doll, then disappeared for 7 months. Workout reports say she's Ok, not a lot of class to work with here though.
6 - Finished 4th on the downhill in last, 3 lengths behind Ponchatrain who's also in here today. Has not won since February, but it was on this course. 112/1 and 112/2 times in 2013. Workout report was good, she fits in here.
7 - Baffert commanding a rare European import. Has not won since July 2012 but is usually in the mix in some classy races. Gets Lasix first time. Tough to know what we'll see here but with Baffert and Garcia you can't ignore. Probably a B, maybe an A.
8 - Moves up in class after finishing a close third in a downhill allowance race to two others in the field (1 and 11). Has a win on the downhill (Oct 2012), times of 112/1, 112/3 and 113/1. Would need to be at her best which is not impossible.
9 - Ran her career top in the last, a blistering 111/2 on the downhill to win an optional claimer. Also ran a 112/1 on the course in March. If she duplicates her last effort she'll be very tough in her, and at a price. Off the pace style fits and price will be very nice price. Workouts may be suggesting a bounce here.
10 - Turnback has been very good in the Mullins barn in 2013, with two wins, a 2nd and 3rd in various restricted stakes. Tried the downhill twice in October 2012, going 112/1 and 113/2, both pre-Mullins. Seemed to be declining so she's had 2 month freshening and the workout reports says its been a big help. Talamo riding should also be a plus. Very dangerous late runner, the kind you like to take a shot with at 8-1.
11 - Finished a closing 2nd to Ponchatrain on the downhill last time running 112/1, with current jock/hottie Chantal Sutherland on board. Steps up in class here. Last workout was only so-so, some concern there. Running style and post are good fits. Probably a B horse for the price.
12 - Won a restricted stake on the downhill last time out going 111/3. 2nd win in a row, seems to enjoy turf going 3-1-0 in 4 tries. Has shown a powerful close consistently the last few races, which should be valuable here. Square priced, must use.
13 - Ungraded stakes win on the downhill last time going 111/4. Only her sixth race today, so she's still got some upside. Stevens commands respects and last workout was well received. Need to use.
Think this is a bit of a spread race and 112/1 or better ability is needed.
A - 1,6,9,10,12,13 (best of the best I'd say are 1, 10, 12, 13)
B - 7,8,11
bloodhound
Sniffing out wins
Thanks for the thread guys
I have to depend on yall sense i know nothing about horses
GLTA
I have to depend on yall sense i know nothing about horses
GLTA
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Back to the drawing board for the Turf Sprint:
Spa Spies @SpaSpies<small class="time" style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(187, 187, 187); position: relative; float: right; margin-top: 1px;">2s</small>
Per @HRTVinsider, Caracortado popped an abcess and will be scratched from the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
Spa Spies @SpaSpies<small class="time" style="font-size: 12px; color: rgb(187, 187, 187); position: relative; float: right; margin-top: 1px;">2s</small>
Per @HRTVinsider, Caracortado popped an abcess and will be scratched from the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
2-5 ML favorite Flashback has been scratched from Race 2
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 4 - Juvenile Fillies Turf
Play2win and Lloyd Braun have covered this pretty well. I'm worried about Sweet Reason and Concave's ability to overcome the track bias. I'll definitely being using Artemis Agrotera, Untapable, and She's a Tiger who despite the outside post should be the speed of the speed. Also like Secret Compass who should be close to the pace. Scandalous Act is a dangerous B with her running style.
A - 1, 4, 7, 10
B - 8, 9
Race 5 - Filly and Mare Turf
This race is trickier than it looks. Dank has the class edge and has now won a G1, G2 and G3 this year, but the speed figure in the Beverly D came up surprisingly low, and the field she faced now looks less than stellar. Romantica is the buzz horse and has a G1 and G3 win this year. Hey its turf at the BC, can't ignore the Euros. I'm warming up to Tiz Flirtatious, who also has 3 graded stakes wins this year and is 4 for 5 at Santa Anita. She ran huge the last time out and apparently still looks great in the morning too. Alterite won a G1 this year over Discrete Marq and lost out in the QE2 by a neck to Kitten Dumplings, but like Dank both speed numbers were shy and the fields were only OK. Marketing Mix is consistently tough and may get first jump on Laughing (if she stays in), she also has had success at Santa Anita and I don't care about the trips last year, she finished ahead of The Fugue in this race. The bomber chance is this one belongs to Qushchi, who freaked at 12 panels in the Wayward Lass but came back to earth in the Flower Bowl.
A - 1,2,3,6
B - 4,9
Play2win and Lloyd Braun have covered this pretty well. I'm worried about Sweet Reason and Concave's ability to overcome the track bias. I'll definitely being using Artemis Agrotera, Untapable, and She's a Tiger who despite the outside post should be the speed of the speed. Also like Secret Compass who should be close to the pace. Scandalous Act is a dangerous B with her running style.
A - 1, 4, 7, 10
B - 8, 9
Race 5 - Filly and Mare Turf
This race is trickier than it looks. Dank has the class edge and has now won a G1, G2 and G3 this year, but the speed figure in the Beverly D came up surprisingly low, and the field she faced now looks less than stellar. Romantica is the buzz horse and has a G1 and G3 win this year. Hey its turf at the BC, can't ignore the Euros. I'm warming up to Tiz Flirtatious, who also has 3 graded stakes wins this year and is 4 for 5 at Santa Anita. She ran huge the last time out and apparently still looks great in the morning too. Alterite won a G1 this year over Discrete Marq and lost out in the QE2 by a neck to Kitten Dumplings, but like Dank both speed numbers were shy and the fields were only OK. Marketing Mix is consistently tough and may get first jump on Laughing (if she stays in), she also has had success at Santa Anita and I don't care about the trips last year, she finished ahead of The Fugue in this race. The bomber chance is this one belongs to Qushchi, who freaked at 12 panels in the Wayward Lass but came back to earth in the Flower Bowl.
A - 1,2,3,6
B - 4,9
mook
Mayor of Mayfair
Forgot to fund the phone account so just match ups today for me.....
juvenile fillies...
sweet reason +115/she's a tiger
fillie mare turf sprint....
judy the beauty +160/groupie doll (.5)
juvenile....
tap it rich -155/strong mandate
mile.....
olympic glory -130/silver max
classic....
game on dude +280
palace malice -160/will take charge
gl today
juvenile fillies...
sweet reason +115/she's a tiger
fillie mare turf sprint....
judy the beauty +160/groupie doll (.5)
juvenile....
tap it rich -155/strong mandate
mile.....
olympic glory -130/silver max
classic....
game on dude +280
palace malice -160/will take charge
gl today
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
I read a couple of posts on Twitter then went out, now I haven't seen confirmation. Sorry if it was bad info.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Double checked Santa Anita and it shows no scratches for Race 1
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
or Race 2 for that matter
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