Super Bowl Discussion - San Francisco vs. Kansas City

[Capaholic]

49ers vs “mobile QB’s” (Murray x2, wilson x 2, Jackson):

192 yards passing
56 yards rushing

The rest of league on average vs these same QB’s:

238 yards passing
43 yards rushing

They went 3-2 and gave up 20 or more points in all 5 of those games. In other words 10-1 against non mobile QBs, 3-2 vs mobile QBs. Not exactly building the open and shut case you all are gathering from those stats. 6 inches against Seattle and a miracle TD against Zona from being 1-4. The stats aren’t even impressive. The opponents. Do we know if they were passing more due to situation? That certainly matters.


Mahomes has been held under 23 points once in 35 games and he couldn’t run half that game.

Just feels like Reid will screw it up somehow.

I’ll never understand this. 7 seasons in KC id say he cost us one game. One. It would be as dumb as me saying “I just feel like Shanny is going to blow a 28-3 lead in this one”.

 

[aplous]

What does SF do when they win the kick? Reid always defers. Good chance SF starts the game with the ball for those pondering 1Q and "Who Scores First" bets. Andy likes to get the ball to start 2H.

With that in mind and the way Chiefs have started games lately a bet on SF 1Q makes a lot of sense to me. BOL has +1/2 at -150. Looking for a pick em at + money.

 

[TheHbomb]

What does SF do when they win the kick? Reid always defers. Good chance SF starts the game with the ball for those pondering 1Q and "Who Scores First" bets. Andy likes to get the ball to start 2H.

With that in mind and the way Chiefs have started games lately a bet on SF 1Q makes a lot of sense to me. BOL has +1/2 at -150. Looking for a pick em at + money.

Niners would defer as well.

 

[cubsker]

They went 3-2 and gave up 20 or more points in all 5 of those games. In other words 10-1 against non mobile QBs, 3-2 vs mobile QBs. Not exactly building the open and shut case you all are gathering from those stats. 6 inches against Seattle and a miracle TD against Zona from being 1-4. The stats aren’t even impressive. The opponents. Do we know if they were passing more due to situation? That certainly matters.


Mahomes has been held under 23 points once in 35 games and he couldn’t run half that game.




I’ll never understand this. 7 seasons in KC id say he cost us one game. One. It would be as dumb as me saying “I just feel like Shanny is going to blow a 28-3 lead in this one”.

Just because it doesnt cost you games, it doesnt mean he hasn't done stupid clock shit.

 

[Zeke]

49ers vs “mobile QB’s” (Murray x2, wilson x 2, Jackson):

192 yards passing
56 yards rushing

The rest of league on average vs these same QB’s:

238 yards passing
43 yards rushing

Bodes well for Mahome's rushing prop over 24.

 

[TheHbomb]

They went 3-2 and gave up 20 or more points in all 5 of those games. In other words 10-1 against non mobile QBs, 3-2 vs mobile QBs. Not exactly building the open and shut case you all are gathering from those stats. 6 inches against Seattle and a miracle TD against Zona from being 1-4. The stats aren’t even impressive. The opponents. Do we know if they were passing more due to situation? That certainly matters.

3-2 with losses to a 14-2 team and an 11-5 team (which they later avenged). Not exactly terrible losses. And if 20 points is the barometer for a bad defense in the NFL then let’s discuss how the chiefs allowed 20+ in 50% of their games...

 

[TheHbomb]

Mahomes has been held under 23 points once in 35 games and he couldn’t run half that game.

Impressive for a team that scored less than the Niners this season.

 

[Capaholic]

3-2 with losses to a 14-2 team and an 11-5 team (which they later avenged). Not exactly terrible losses. And if 20 points is the barometer for a bad defense in the NFL then let’s discuss how the chiefs allowed 20+ in 50% of their games...

Lol... You guys are like arguing with someone about Impeachment. For a week now, I have countered every argument statistically.. And the replies have gone from insults to "hey look over there, you guys did this that one time too!". Was my message about the Chiefs defense? No.. No it wasn't. Was it about the Niners defense, given what you had written? Yes, yes it was. And poked glaring holes in it.

Impressive for a team that scored less than the Niners this season.

Absolutely correct. The Niners did outscore the Chiefs by 28 points. I am thrilled for you. The 13.5 games with Mahomes vs 16 games with Jimmy is certainly apples and apples. Oh Mahomes was hurt the first 6 weeks too? That's fine. You got me. One of those anomalies.. Like our middle of the pack no good defense somehow letting up less points than the vaunted 49ers D which I have recently learned is a close cousin of the 85 Bears. But Im not going to really thump my chest on that one either because Kwon, Dee Ford, etc have all missed some time.



This whole week has made me appreciate @ProV1Colt , @MusicCityGambler and @Big daddy naught and how productive the capping discussion was last week. No emotions, no bullshit... Let's talk strengths and weaknesses and figure this thing out.


I'm ready for this game to just begin... I was more nervous last week as a 7 point favorite than I am about this game. If the Niners can score 30+, maybe they have a shot.

 

[TheHbomb]

Absolutely correct. The Niners did outscore the Chiefs by 28 points. I am thrilled for you. The 13.5 games with Mahomes vs 16 games with Jimmy is certainly apples and apples. Oh Mahomes was hurt the first 6 weeks too? That's fine. You got me. One of those anomalies.. Like our middle of the pack no good defense somehow letting up less points than the vaunted 49ers D which I have recently learned is a close cousin of the 85 Bears. But Im not going to really thump my chest on that one either because Kwon, Dee Ford, etc have all missed some time.

First the Niners are not the 85 Bears; not even close. There is something we both agree on.

I am simply countering your point that suggested allowing 20 points is indicative of bad defense.

As far as the other point, The Niners averaged 29.9 PPG this year; the Chiefs averaged 28.53 PPG over the 13 games Mahomes played the entire game. That’s not insignificant to counter your point that Mahomes hasn’t been held to under xx points in xx games.

We can all point to how the Chiefs defense has come into their own late in the season, but the fact remains, they looked good against the Raiders, Pats, Broncos, Bears, and Chargers offenses. Not exactly offensive juggernauts. I’m not going to go tit for tat with you, because it’s not productive for either of us.:shake:

 

[D-Woww]

Look, im not usually like this, but im throwing out all stats & metrics. Im also not worrying about being sharp or not. This is a matchup of offensive geniuses. So im taking the over. Thats it.

great write up huh?

 

[Ryno14]

Lol... You guys are like arguing with someone about Impeachment. For a week now, I have countered every argument statistically.. And the replies have gone from insults to "hey look over there, you guys did this that one time too!". Was my message about the Chiefs defense? No.. No it wasn't. Was it about the Niners defense, given what you had written? Yes, yes it was. And poked glaring holes in it.



Absolutely correct. The Niners did outscore the Chiefs by 28 points. I am thrilled for you. The 13.5 games with Mahomes vs 16 games with Jimmy is certainly apples and apples. Oh Mahomes was hurt the first 6 weeks too? That's fine. You got me. One of those anomalies.. Like our middle of the pack no good defense somehow letting up less points than the vaunted 49ers D which I have recently learned is a close cousin of the 85 Bears. But Im not going to really thump my chest on that one either because Kwon, Dee Ford, etc have all missed some time.



This whole week has made me appreciate @ProV1Colt , @MusicCityGambler and @Big daddy naught and how productive the capping discussion was last week. No emotions, no bullshit... Let's talk strengths and weaknesses and figure this thing out.


I'm ready for this game to just begin... I was more nervous last week as a 7 point favorite than I am about this game. If the Niners can score 30+, maybe they have a shot.

Oh.....

 

[Jayhawk Nation]

I sat down to cap this game and decided to say screw it and just bet as a fan. Now whether that means the reverse jinx/assured happiness of a wager on the 49ers or max-homer play on the Chiefs has yet to be determined. Maybe just do neither and go with the Chiefs TT over. Who knows. So can't help with the capping here.

I will say, I don't like Andy Reid as much as most Chiefs fans do, because he does tend to step on his dick a lot. It may not cost us a lot of games but it sure as shit doesn't help (and I do think his coaching at least partially cost us the AFC Championship game last year). But he has a chance to prove me and every other naysayer wrong sunday and if he wins this one I will never give him shit anymore even when he inevitably steps on his dick again.

I don't think I have ever been more excited for a sporting event and that is besides the fact that I think this is going to be an amazing game. I am a fortunate man that I have seen my Jayhawks (in person) win the Natty, and many other FF's. I am fortunate to have seen my Royals (in person) win the Series. But none of those come close and I am not exactly sure why. I can't say I never thought I would see this but maybe deep down I didnt. I got a little misty eyed after Mario's miracle, but it was nothing like the emotions after last week was in the books. I am quite certain that I will be in full tears Sunday, win or lose. I would have liked to have gone in person but due to other vacations already booked for wife and I she put her foot down and would not let me spend 10 grand on the experience. She made me smile at least by saying this was the start of a dynasty and that I can go next year.

GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!

 

[Zeke]

This thread has turned into something I'd expect to see at Covers. Clearly people have already decided what side they want to be on and are arguing their side. In my opinion you can shit can all the stats at this point & bet it based on the eye test. We've all watched five months of football. If anyone needs to look up how many yards KC gives up against the run, for example, they shouldn't be betting this.

No amount of handicapping or research could have lead anyone to accurately predict last year's SB outcome. But by all means, keep bashing one another, makes for a good read.

 

[wiseplayer]

This thread has turned into something I'd expect to see at Covers. Clearly people have already decided what side they want to be on and are arguing their side. In my opinion you can shit can all the stats at this point & bet it based on the eye test. We've all watched five months of football. If anyone needs to look up how many yards KC gives up against the run, for example, they shouldn't be betting this.

No amount of handicapping or research could have lead anyone to accurately predict last year's SB outcome. But by all means, keep bashing one another, makes for a good read.

Being a Rams fan I somewhat disagree regarding last years SB. Goff vs Belechick might have been the easiest task for BB to defend. Rams had issues at RB and WR. The only thing that was surprising was the Pats offense getting shutdown like it did.
This years SB looks to me like a statistical edge for SF. What is a great strength for SF is a major weakness for KC. What is a strength for KC, we have SF ranked #1.

 

[Zeke]

Wise my point being nobody in their right mind would have thought the Rams would be held to 3 points.

 

[cubsker]

I'm going to be pissed if this game sucks as bad as that one did.

 

[Jayhawk Nation]

I'm going to be pissed if this game sucks as bad as that one did.

As long as it’s the Niners with the 3 I’ll get over it

 

[B.A.R.]

I'm going to be pissed if this game sucks as bad as that one did.

That was brutal. We've been spoiled for awhile though. I think people forget '90-'03 where where were maybe 3 games with drama.

 

[Capaholic]

That was brutal. We've been spoiled for awhile though. I think people forget '90-'03 where where were maybe 3 games with drama.

this. I’m 40. I remember being a little guy being so psyched to have the Pats getting to play the Bears. And the Niners and Dolphins the year before. But other than Bills-Giants, the Super Bowl was largely garbage for my entire life up until Titans-Rams and Rams-Pats

this should be a special game.

 

[Zeke]

I assume back in '85 you liked the Pats & it's the past 20 years of obnoxious fandom that's driven you to dislike? You remember when you were 5? Holy shit!

Frankly that's kind of how I feel about the Red Sox...plus I flat out don't give two fucks about baseball.

 

[Capaholic]

I assume back in '85 you liked the Pats & it's the past 20 years of obnoxious fandom that's driven you to dislike? You remember when you were 5? Holy shit!

Frankly that's kind of how I feel about the Red Sox...plus I flat out don't give two fucks about baseball.

I remember the Pats game clearly because my father went to New Orleans. I couldn’t tell you detail about the Niners-Miami one but that was the first Super Bowl I have a memory of who won etc. I used to go to tons of Patriots games with my dad as he had season tickets. Those terrible Patriots teams were a lot of fun to root for even as a young Chiefs fan (meanwhile we had gotten really good when Marty came). The Bledsoe years were really exciting as well. Almost tempted me to just be a Pats fan. Was even at the snow game/Tuck Rule game with friends. But once they won a couple of Super Bowls, everyone became insufferable. Mix that in with the Sox finally winning. Suddenly everyone was a diehard fan of all four Boston teams and everyone else could go eff themselves. I will always admire and respect greatness. What the pats have done is other worldly. But I despise the fan base. My friend and I joke often. Going to high school in the mid 90s we knew exactly 2 kids who had any Pats gear whatsoever. Many of our good friends liked the Cowboys and Niners. Nowwww, they are “Lifelong” Pats fans.It’s tough up here if you don’t like the team. Very tough.

 

[aplous]

My first Super Bowl memory was Norwood's missed kick which I enjoyed as someone who rooted against the Bills all those years....which transitioned to me rooting against Aikman's great Cowboy teams. My favorite non Chiefs team ever was when Deion joined SF and they wore the throwbacks and were so explosive. And my Chiefs were stuck with a great D and running it 40 times a game.

I've got a great feeling I get to finally see my guys lift the trophy Sunday night.

 

[Zeke]

Cap I know we've discussed this before but even AS a Pat's fan it can be rough up here. So much ignorance to the game & people just expect them to roll every year.

GL to your Chiefs man....just not by more than 7.

 

[Inspekdah]

I missed the graphic I saw yesterday. Patty's numbers vs. 5 or more pass rushers is something off the charts. Certainly not bad vs 4 or less but much more human. I think he has 1 career interception when blitzed? And 15 or so with 4 or less rushers?

Encouraging stat for the 9ers. Who I would consider actually dropping 8 at times with one being a over the middle/spy

 

[wiseplayer]

We had many blowouts in the past because there were significant advantages on 1 side. If the advantages including a coaching edge as well, it snowballed even more. I see clear strengths on 1 side vs a major weakness. On the other side of the field, I see a solid strength but it's going against the #1 ranking in that area.
I could be wrong but i see a double digit win here. There could be a late score to close the gap but i see dominantion. Turnovers change everything but SF is pretty discipline. If KC is sloppy, we might see a blowout.

 

[number2]

My first Super Bowl memory was Norwood's missed kick which I enjoyed as someone who rooted against the Bills all those years....which transitioned to me rooting against Aikman's great Cowboy teams. My favorite non Chiefs team ever was when Deion joined SF and they wore the throwbacks and were so explosive. And my Chiefs were stuck with a great D and running it 40 times a game.

I've got a great feeling I get to finally see my guys lift the trophy Sunday night.

speaking of Norwood’s missed kick......i remembered watching that kick on tv when I was a kid. We had family gathering, forgot why the tv had the game on. After that kick, I started watching football and learned the game of football along the way. Then it’s into basketball and baseball. Then it led me into gambling sports and being a degenerate gambler. Basically the kick got me into watching sports and playing sports.

 

[Inspekdah]

Thank you Chief's owner for talking about your star's extension.

 

[TheHbomb]

 

[B.A.R.]

Definitely hedging my future now. Kiss of death ..View attachment 45295

 

[aplous]

Also Mattress Mack trying to get a million down on SF

 

[Inspekdah]

Definitely hedging my future now. Kiss of death ..View attachment 45295

as long as KC holds as a -1 (meaningless) favorite but drives the public to bet the favorite I think you’re good.

 

[guaranteeed]

I missed the graphic I saw yesterday. Patty's numbers vs. 5 or more pass rushers is something off the charts. Certainly not bad vs 4 or less but much more human. I think he has 1 career interception when blitzed? And 15 or so with 4 or less rushers?

Encouraging stat for the 9ers. Who I would consider actually dropping 8 at times with one being a over the middle/spy

Not a huge difference

 

[guaranteeed]

Definitely hedging my future now. Kiss of death ..View attachment 45295

Hes a bigger mush then tha CHuuuuuuuuuuuurch of B L aka the Langer

Also the biggest clown at fox sports, which is really hard to do

 

[pressitup]

Can anyone remember a team coming into this game that has changed it's philosophy ?

 

[aplous]

Nice article here on journeyman DT #64 Mike Pennel for KC

Mike Pennel is the underrated stud of the Chiefs defense

The Kansas City Chiefs have ample well-known superstars. However, one man along the defensive line has proved invaluable while keeping a low profile.

fansided.com

Here's the key point:

In eight games without Pennel in the lineup, Kansas City has allowed 158.4 rushing yards per game on 5.39 yards per carry.

In 10 games with him (including playoffs), the Chiefs have surrendered 96.3 rushing yards on 4.28 YPC.

 

[TheHbomb]

Nice article here on journeyman DT #64 Mike Pennel for KC

Mike Pennel is the underrated stud of the Chiefs defense

The Kansas City Chiefs have ample well-known superstars. However, one man along the defensive line has proved invaluable while keeping a low profile.

fansided.com

Here's the key point:

In eight games without Pennel in the lineup, Kansas City has allowed 158.4 rushing yards per game on 5.39 yards per carry.

In 10 games with him (including playoffs), the Chiefs have surrendered 96.3 rushing yards on 4.28 YPC.

No disrespect meant, but that 4.28 YPC still would’ve put them at 17th in the NFL this season, if that’s their best. Not exactly great. It’s more of a highlight of how awful they were earlier in the season against the run.

 

[Inspekdah]

Hes a bigger mush then tha CHuuuuuuuuuuuurch of B L aka the Langer

Also the biggest clown at fox sports, which is really hard to do

Which makes him better than every clown as the worldwide leader ESPN.

 

[Inspekdah]

Not a huge difference

Significantly more likely to turn it over when not being blitzed with those ratios. 250% more likely. But the blitz is almost 0%. So I hear you.

Although these boys aren't your average 4. Make the Giants SB teams look like pee wee.

 

[B.A.R.]

Which makes him better than every clown as the worldwide leader ESPN.

No, he's still worse.

 

[Gandolf]

Significantly more likely to turn it over when not being blitzed with those ratios. 250% more likely. But the blitz is almost 0%. So I hear you.

Although these boys aren't your average 4. Make the Giants SB teams look like pee wee.

I don't know about that....

2007 NYGiants had 53 sacks, 2019 Niners had 48.

Omenyiora 13 sacks, Tuck 10, Strahan 9, Robbins 5.5
Armstead 10, Bosa 9, Buckner 7.5, Ford 6.5

Giant-killer Giants front four stacks up quite well with this year's Niners.

 

[Inspekdah]

No, he's still worse.

You're right. His voice is terrible.

 

[Inspekdah]

I don't know about that....

2007 NYGiants had 53 sacks, 2019 Niners had 48.

Omenyiora 13 sacks, Tuck 10, Strahan 9, Robbins 5.5
Armstead 10, Bosa 9, Buckner 7.5, Ford 6.5

Giant-killer Giants front four stacks up quite well with this year's Niners.

I just like to make bold comparisons. I agree with you.

The #s dropped off BIG time without Ford in the lineup. He's the speed component. Without him they were above average... nothing more.

 

[Capaholic]

No disrespect meant, but that 4.28 YPC still would’ve put them at 17th in the NFL this season, if that’s their best. Not exactly great. It’s more of a highlight of how awful they were earlier in the season against the run.

No disrespect taken by this Chiefs fan. I think the more telling numbers from there are that they are 9-1 in those 10 games he has played. 5 out of 10 against playoff teams. And the only loss was the Matt Moore game against the Packers. A game Chris Jones and Frank Clark did not play in.


also, I can’t believe I just read an actual post on a reputable site such as this saying this Niners front makes the Giants SB teams look like pee wee.

the hyperbole has been getting very strong out of the Niner camp this past week plus. I hope you’ll all still come back and visit Monday morning.

 

[Inspekdah]

No disrespect taken by this Chiefs fan. I think the more telling numbers from there are that they are 9-1 in those 10 games he has played. 5 out of 10 against playoff teams. And the only loss was the Matt Moore game against the Packers. A game Chris Jones and Frank Clark did not play in.


also, I can’t believe I just read an actual post on a reputable site such as this saying this Niners front makes the Giants SB teams look like pee wee.

the hyperbole has been getting very strong out of the Niner camp this past week plus. I hope you’ll all still come back and visit Monday morning.

relax

 

[Capaholic]

relax

yes sir

 

[Inspekdah]

No disrespect taken by this Chiefs fan. I think the more telling numbers from there are that they are 9-1 in those 10 games he has played. 5 out of 10 against playoff teams. And the only loss was the Matt Moore game against the Packers. A game Chris Jones and Frank Clark did not play in.


also, I can’t believe I just read an actual post on a reputable site such as this saying this Niners front makes the Giants SB teams look like pee wee.

the hyperbole has been getting very strong out of the Niner camp this past week plus. I hope you’ll all still come back and visit Monday morning.

In the very next post I admit I was sort of joking with that comment. I'd put them right up there with them and the best defensive end in football is only 22.

Chief's may win, it's a legit coin flip, but let's stop with the see you Monday talk.

 

[Capaholic]

In the very next post I admit I was sort of joking with that comment. I'd put them right up there with them and the best defensive end in football is only 22.

Chief's may win, it's a legit coin flip, but let's stop with the see you Monday talk.

im not getting into it. Y’all been dishing it out and every button I’ve pushed back has hit a sensitive bone. It’s almost too easy. Dude was right. This isn’t covers. Not going to play games. 5 pages of this thread though, to a stranger walking in for the first time reading, they might think the Niners are -14 based on the comments. Good luck. We’ve both been here way too long and I wish the game would just get here.

 

[B.A.R.]

What's the Chiefs gameplan on defense...do we think?

 

[aplous]

I might have to eat my words on this and he could have 2.5 sacks in the game and I'll still stand by it but Dee Ford stinks. He has 1 move....speed rush. And I think Mitch Schwartz shuts him down. He's about 4th or 5th on my list of 49er DL that scare me on Sunday. He's a situational speed rusher. And cost us a Super Bowl last year.

 

[aplous]

What's the Chiefs gameplan on defense...do we think?

Same as v Titans. Hope to stop the run without stacking the box and make the QB beat you. Chiefs only stacked the box (8 or more guys) like 17% last week, least Tennessee had faced since week 6 I believe. I think they'll play it pretty safe early and try not to get beat with the misdirection and play action stuff....then hopefully have a lead and blitz him late.