Super Bowl Discussion - San Francisco vs. Kansas City

wiseplayer said:
Niners are the better team.
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Tennessee had a better weighted DVOA on the season than San Fran. Also graded out with better run blocking than SF.

KC has the better offense and special teams. Niners with the better defense.

You might be right. I personally think this is one of the most level matchups we have seen in a long time. Should be an exciting game.
 
detroit187 said:
Sherman is stationary on his side. Tyreek lines up everywhere including about 35% of time in slot. I’d doubt we see much of that matchup. They’ll probably throw a sacrificial lamb out to the right side unless they want to go deep on Sherm like Devante did for 60 tonight. Then again if Tyreek over there I bet Sherm gets safety help. I’d run Hardman over there and throw a 9 at some point.
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I think it's actually a bad matchup for Sherman, the guy he is best suited to match up to is kelce

The rest of the chefs receivers are burners, and as Adam's showed today, he can get toasted deep

I'd consider rotating reek, hardman, and Watkins on him all first half just running go routes and deep posts, tire him out
 
2daBank said:
I think it pretty much inevitable Niners pass rush is gonna get into the backfield. The question To me is can mahomes elude it or Andy scheme around it by moving him and screens to try and wear them out?
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Chiefs run blocking has been poor, but as a pass blocking unit they are elite

2nd behind the saints in percentage of snaps they kept it clean for the QB to 2.5 seconds
 
Biggest issue for kc is stopping the run, their defense has been really solid the last 10 weeks, but its mostly been improvement against the pass, they still struggle vs the run

The weird thing is SF was an average rushing team in the regular season, 13th by dvoa

So was this week, and last week partially, an outlier? Or has something changed
 
2daBank said:
todays games really meant nothing far as my opinion of the next: they both played out pretty similar to how I expected for a change. My only point about either loser today was if pack was playing Kc think I’d give them a much better chance than I did against Niners.
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Niners would have waxed Texans and Titans where KC had their hands full. KC needs to improve greatly these next 2 weeks if they want the Super Bowl to be competitive.
 
What Hunt said makes sense. The universe aligned quite nicely for KC with Baltimore choking. Not taking anything away from Tennessee but obviously the lesser of the evils. If KC comes out with their heads up their asses like they have the past two weeks, I don't envision the SF D being as forgiving as HOU & TEN was.

Probably teasing SF with over. Gets the number over a TD & below the 49. It's easier than spending two weeks thinking about it.
 
SF D is very very good but they’re not any sort of immovable force like previous era’s dominant defenses. Mahomes’ mobility and SF’s lack of rotational depth on the d line will make that a net zero. And it doesn’t matter what the plan is with Sherman, it’s like having 3 pieces of gum to plug 4 giant holes against Kc
 
guaranteeed said:
I think it's actually a bad matchup for Sherman, the guy he is best suited to match up to is kelce

The rest of the chefs receivers are burners, and as Adam's showed today, he can get toasted deep

I'd consider rotating reek, hardman, and Watkins on him all first half just running go routes and deep posts, tire him out
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Agreed 100%
 
HUNT said:
Sometimes you gotta listen to the gambling gods for this one.

Andy Reid has had to overcome a lot of personal shit.

Ravens lose.

Chiefs come back down 20+ and win.

The gods are speaking.
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What about SF avoiding rival SEA or Saints, both would have been much more competitive games. (SEA wasn't good, just know them well)
 
If the 9ers had an average run offense this season, I’d like to see the 15 teams who have better rushing attacks. It was Baltimore and SF by a mile and then everyone else when it comes to running the ball.

I feel like Shanny has his offense ready to score early and the defense comes out with the right schemes to force a couple of punts early. What happens in the 2h is where I worry as teams forced to play with their backs against the wall seem to find holes in the defense. Seattle and GB last 2 of the 3 games.

How does KC not fall in love with their game plan from yesterday and do the same thing? Tannehill is a backup level talent throwing to rookies. I don’t think it will work against GQ but how do you not apply the same strategy to a team that just ran the ball every play like it was a military school.
 
I am riding with the Niners until the end. I think The Chiefs are going to scheme to stop the run for the next 2 weeks, but this will be the game that Shanahan unleashes Jimmy G. Zag when they think you’re gonna zig.
 
Curious Reid’s record vs Sherman (or Pete) to see how he’s done vs this defensive scheme.

9ers last year got murked at KC but obviously a different team.
 
guaranteeed said:
Biggest issue for kc is stopping the run, their defense has been really solid the last 10 weeks, but its mostly been improvement against the pass, they still struggle vs the run

The weird thing is SF was an average rushing team in the regular season, 13th by dvoa

So was this week, and last week partially, an outlier? Or has something changed
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Mostert getting more carries. For some reason, they fail to understand who their best rb is when Coleman is around.
 
I lean SF, but then take a very serious pause b/c of Mahomes.

Interestingly, against both Texans & Titans he was 23/35 for 321 yds & 294 yds and QBR of 134 & 120.

He also rushed for exactly 53 yds in both games.

KC had 118 & 112 yds rushing in each game. In both, Mahomes was the leading rusher with 6 & 8 more yards than Williams.

A model of consistency if you have ever seen one.
 
Fun fact - this is the 41st Super Bowl to involve one or more of the 7 teams that have either played in at least 8 Super Bowls or won at least 4 (Niners qualify under both, others are NE, Pitt, Dallas, NYG, GB and Denver).

That's right, 7 teams have been involved in over 75% of the Super Bowls. If you include 3 teams that have played in 5 Super Bowls but won "only" 2 or 3 (Mia, Was, Oak), you're down to just FIVE Super Bowls that did not involve any of the 10 franchises with the most appearances. Less than a third of the league has played in 90% of the big games.
 
Tannehill looked phenomenal for weeks too with numbers better than Jimmy G. And when he didn’t we take a step back and see, perhaps he was pretty limited to begin with. I would expect a very similar game plan to this week’s with obvious wrinkles thrown in given the time to prepare.

and I’ve met Pats girl. Internet and barstool sports and everyone’s on her case all the time. She’s young and supports the shit out of her boyfriend that she’s been with since high school. I wish my wife would get half as crazy about anything I did.
 
Inspekdah said:
Curious Reid’s record vs Sherman (or Pete) to see how he’s done vs this defensive scheme.

9ers last year got murked at KC but obviously a different team.
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Different team and different location for the Super Bowl. This Niners teams has been pretty dominant all year.
 
guaranteeed said:
Chiefs run blocking has been poor, but as a pass blocking unit they are elite

2nd behind the saints in percentage of snaps they kept it clean for the QB to 2.5 seconds
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I agree their oline excellent pass blockers. They have to be, without looking I’d guess no team does as many pure drop back passes a game than kc. Niners dline is elite also, if they know you throwing all the time they gonna be next to impossible to block imo. Gotta think Andy gonna get mahomes out on the edges a lot. Run a bunch of different screens, draws, misdirection to try and make those guys run around a lot early on to try and wear them down.
 
Gandolf said:
Fun fact - this is the 41st Super Bowl to involve one or more of the 7 teams that have either played in at least 8 Super Bowls or won at least 4 (Niners qualify under both, others are NE, Pitt, Dallas, NYG, GB and Denver).

That's right, 7 teams have been involved in over 75% of the Super Bowls. If you include 3 teams that have played in 5 Super Bowls but won "only" 2 or 3 (Mia, Was, Oak), you're down to just FIVE Super Bowls that did not involve any of the 10 franchises with the most appearances. Less than a third of the league has played in 90% of the big games.
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parity!!
 
C-MAN said:
will be looking to play SF 1Q. How can anyone trust Andy to have his team ready to go after how slow they started vs Hou and Tenny?? And SF has been sharp early in both of their playoff games.
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certainly makes sense. Packers been great early in games most the year and all they could really muster were drives to midfield.
 
emg2525 said:
“unleashing Jimmy G” won’t win the 49ers a super bowl
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he was pretty damn impressive in New Orleans when they got into a track meet with saints. I don’t think jimmy g gets enough credit, he has the good fortune of a incredible play caller which kinda ensures he gonna have success imo. Shanny did make Matt Ryan a mvp and I think fair to say jimmy g every bit as talented as matty ice.

Jimmy one huge flaw is if you force Niners to pass a lot he will throw 2-3 balls a game defenses get their hands on, some that on him but some of it play design imo as lot their passing game predicated on run action moving linebackers, when they don’t get moved out of position enough he tends to throw it anyways. For whatever reason, I suppose it mostly good fortune for most part it seemed to me like defenders have picked very few of them. Kc gonna have to catch those when they get the chance. I think you gotta win the turnover battle to beat niners right now.
 
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TheHbomb said:
I am riding with the Niners until the end. I think The Chiefs are going to scheme to stop the run for the next 2 weeks, but this will be the game that Shanahan unleashes Jimmy G. Zag when they think you’re gonna zig.
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that what makes Niners so dang tough, they equally good at everything and shanny the best there is picking on a defenses vulnerabilities! Look how they came out against Vikings in the 1st few drives it was basically all passes which opened up the run game. They figured out quick vs packers they didn’t have to throw a pass. lol
 
emg2525 said:
no question; and I’m not trying to take anything away from him. I’m simply suggesting that they don’t need to unleash him to win this game - that shouldn’t be their gameplan IMO
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if kc sells out to stop the run like they did vs titans then that will absolutely be what they do imo. Pick your poison cause they can beat you a number of ways. if I’m Kc I absolutely try to take the run away even tho Niners will make them pay for it, at least if they throwing to score you will have a few shots to get turnovers and they won’t be controlling the pace of the whole game. I think how Kc chooses to play d gonna be a huge determining factor in the total.
 
guaranteeed said:
Biggest issue for kc is stopping the run, their defense has been really solid the last 10 weeks, but its mostly been improvement against the pass, they still struggle vs the run

The weird thing is SF was an average rushing team in the regular season, 13th by dvoa

So was this week, and last week partially, an outlier? Or has something changed
Click to expand...

#44 was out, quite a few lineman were out, Kittle was out a game or two..
 
I don’t buy that dvoa saying Niners have average run game for one minute. They one of if not the best rushing team in the league imo. Did any team deal with more injuries than them this year? Kc had quite a few early on as well. Year long numbers for either don’t mean a great deal to me at this point as they obviously both playing at their highest level now when it counts.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t buy that dvoa saying Niners have average run game for one minute. They one of if not the best rushing team in the league imo. Did any team deal with more injuries than them this year? Kc had quite a few early on as well. Year long numbers for either don’t mean a great deal to me at this point as they obviously both playing at their highest level now when it counts.
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Again, I’m not knocking SF at all. But weighted DVOA takes this into consideration and favors the latter part of the season. I was surprised myself.

but nobody questioned these rankings all year. Nobody claimed SF was the best team in the league. And they blew the doors off GB and beat a Vikings team that Matt Moore defeated. KC had a very favorable draw as well.

-can KC stop the run
- can Jimmy win the game with 20-30+ passes
- can SF get heat on Mahomes
- can SF handle Watkins, Hardman and Robinson if they double Hill and/or Kelce
- can KC establish any semblance of a Ground game.

The game result is somewhere in there.
 
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