Super Bowl Discussion - San Francisco vs. Kansas City

I have no pony in this race.
Being in the AFC West, Fuck K.C.
The 49ers? Fuck. My Co-Worker Tony And I, Only 2 Non 49er Fans. Everyone Else, LOVES The 9ers!
Fuck Them Too!
So I Will Not, Nor Can I 'Root' For Either Team!
I Root For Cash! The All Mighty Dollar!
So I Will Wager On Either One Of These Teams If It Means Making Money.
What Are TT's At, Anyone?!
MVP Jimmy Garoppolo +250
 
Strictly because my younger brother is a huge 9ers fan and I won't hear the end of it...

Go KC

Plus, I like Mahomey. Next superstar of this game.
 
Inspekdah said:
If the 9ers had an average run offense this season, I’d like to see the 15 teams who have better rushing attacks. It was Baltimore and SF by a mile and then everyone else when it comes to running the ball.

I feel like Shanny has his offense ready to score early and the defense comes out with the right schemes to force a couple of punts early. What happens in the 2h is where I worry as teams forced to play with their backs against the wall seem to find holes in the defense. Seattle and GB last 2 of the 3 games.

How does KC not fall in love with their game plan from yesterday and do the same thing? Tannehill is a backup level talent throwing to rookies. I don’t think it will work against GQ but how do you not apply the same strategy to a team that just ran the ball every play like it was a military school.
Click to expand...

Per dvoa

Baltimore was waaaaay ahead of everyone, sf was back in 13th behind

Arizona
Dallas
Green Bay
Tennessee
Seattle
Carolina
Indy
Cleveland
Philly
Houston
Nawlins


They were also above the league average in stuffed rate, 20% vs the average 19
14th in power run success

The one area they did excel with was was if it went to the 2nd level, or in the open field where they were near the top

Which isnt surprising considering the zbs Shanahan has used, same as his pops in denver

Joe buck even said it yesterday that Shanahan told them he expected feast or famine runs, either get stuffed or get 10+

My other concern is their home v away numbers, specifically because it's a zbs, the unit needs to be in sync or the d line will blow it up

They were 5th ypc at home, 16th away from home

Pff graded them as the 14th best o line this year

In what way was it sf by a mile over everyone except Baltimore?
 
Capaholic said:
Tennessee had a better weighted DVOA on the season than San Fran. Also graded out with better run blocking than SF.

KC has the better offense and special teams. Niners with the better defense.

You might be right. I personally think this is one of the most level matchups we have seen in a long time. Should be an exciting game.
Click to expand...

If anyone thinks Tennessee was even close to SF... whoa.
 
SF was 2nd in the league rushing and did it without their 2 tackles and league's best FB for a sizable chunk of the season...

They're 15-3 and those 3 losses were all last second walk offs. With one being on the road @ red hot Baltimore after the Saints win the previous week. The other 2 they were down 5-6 key pieces in each of those games.

Chiefs are by far my biggest fear as an opponent in this one. Even if Reid has his team ready to play 20 minutes too late Pat can just go bananas. The last time the Chiefs played a defense was the Pat's and that was a low scoring slugger. That's my hope here because the 9ers are that level of defense, maybe even a nod better with the pass rush, and if we limit Pat we win easily as the Chief's defense is still poor.
 
I also expect GOAT Bill B in this one to be sharing his notes with King Kyle and his defense in this one. No one benefits more from a told you so perspective than to see GQ raise the SB trophy above his head than Belichick. He turned down better offers from other teams so that Jimmy would succeed.
 
I know Chiefs defense will be by far the weakest unit on the field that day but wouldnt suprise me one bit if they come to play that day since everyone keeps talking how bad they are, secondary has improved with Mathieu and they were able to stop the train Henry last week, Honey Badger is the real deal.
 
Jm8122 said:
I know Chiefs defense will be by far the weakest unit on the field that day but wouldnt suprise me one bit if they come to play that day since everyone keeps talking how bad they are, secondary has improved with Mathieu and they were able to stop the train Henry last week, Honey Badger is the real deal.
Click to expand...

I mean I suppose that has to be true but not like kc defense is bad by any stretch imo. I dunno, I’ve found myself making good cases for each side. No clue what I would do if I didn’t take niners +170 before Sunday’s games? Lol. As is I’ll prob just let that ride since I think current price far more accurate (as in it a coin flip).
 
Inspekdah said:
I also expect GOAT Bill B in this one to be sharing his notes with King Kyle and his defense in this one. No one benefits more from a told you so perspective than to see GQ raise the SB trophy above his head than Belichick. He turned down better offers from other teams so that Jimmy would succeed.
Click to expand...

Andy and BB are incredibly close for what it is worth. Like prob BB’s best friend in the ranks.

Inspekdah said:
If anyone thinks Tennessee was even close to SF... whoa.
Click to expand...

It’s not “anyone”. It’s literally the most trusted and used football analytics site on the planet. I’m sorry the numbers aren’t pleasing to you. They are the same folks that identified Green Bay, Seattle and Houston as frauds all season. All their numbers are saying is that the last third of the season, Tennessee has objectively outperformed SF. SF had 5 games settled on the last play of the game to round out the year. I’m not sure why there’s offense being taken. They are a strong ass, talented team. Well coached on all sides of the ball. But some sort of notion that this is a juggernaut that nobody has stopped is rewriting the season’s history.
 
Inspekdah said:
I also expect GOAT Bill B in this one to be sharing his notes with King Kyle and his defense in this one. No one benefits more from a told you so perspective than to see GQ raise the SB trophy above his head than Belichick. He turned down better offers from other teams so that Jimmy would succeed.
Click to expand...

lol. Interesting thought. He def sent jimmy g to a place to put him in a “I told you so” position.
 
Capaholic said:
Andy and BB are incredibly close for what it is worth. Like prob BB’s best friend in the ranks.



It’s not “anyone”. It’s literally the most trusted and used football analytics site on the planet. I’m sorry the numbers aren’t pleasing to you. They are the same folks that identified Green Bay, Seattle and Houston as frauds all season. All their numbers are saying is that the last third of the season, Tennessee has objectively outperformed SF. SF had 5 games settled on the last play of the game to round out the year. I’m not sure why there’s offense being taken. They are a strong ass, talented team. Well coached on all sides of the ball. But some sort of notion that this is a juggernaut that nobody has stopped is rewriting the season’s history.
Click to expand...

That's why I support stats and analysis that are supported with some reasoning. If Houston was such a fraud shouldn't Tennessee have beaten them at home? How can any analytic call one team a fraud and say the other is elite when it loses at home with everything on the line? That game wasn't close btw, it was 10 points with less than a minute left.

The final 6 games of the season the 9ers played Packers, Saints, Ravens, Falcons (sat half their defense), Rams, and Seahawks. You could argue going 4-2 with the scheduling, travel, etc. was nothing short of miraculous. It was by far the toughest patch any team had to face this season.

Who did the Titans play? Jags, Colts, Raiders, Houston @ home with division on the line and lost, Saints - mutual opponent and lost, and Houston with 0 starters. It doesn't get much easier than that and they lost the only 2 games vs. teams with a pulse.

I'd be friends with Reid too. He probably knows all the good food spots.
 
Last edited:
Inspekdah said:
I wonder who Grbac is picking to win this game. Dude is still the face of the Chief's franchise.
Click to expand...

Chiefs have had as many ten win seasons in the last 7 years than you’ve had this century.

Time to leave the 80’s and 90’s behind.

And sorry you don’t understand analytics. It evaluates what you do, when you do it and who you do it against. There’s that reasoning you were looking for.

And fat jokes for Andy? Niceeee. Original.


enjoy the two weeks bud
 
Capaholic said:
Chiefs have had as many ten win seasons in the last 7 years than you’ve had this century.

Time to leave the 80’s and 90’s behind.

And sorry you don’t understand analytics. It evaluates what you do, when you do it and who you do it against. There’s that reasoning you were looking for.

And fat jokes for Andy? Niceeee. Original.


enjoy the two weeks bud
Click to expand...

All I'm saying is that clearly the analytics in this case don't make much sense. One team had a doomsday gauntlet of scheduling and traveling vs. the best teams in the league. The other team played the Jags, Raiders, and Colts, and a D2 Houston squad who played 0 starters. No need to come at me by saying I don't understand analytics. In this instance, I think they are flawed. We're not comparing the 9ers and the Chiefs here. Somehow it became 9ers vs. Titans and despite your "analytics" the 9ers would be a 7 point favorite.

10 win seasons are literally "Andy Reid" honors and the 9ers had a great team early last decade.

No need to argue. I'm terrified of this match-up as a 9ers fan.
 
Last edited:
Come at you? You didn’t like the results because they didn’t give you the reason you wanted. And the Grbac shit is going to get a comment fired back every time.

you’re correct. sf played a solid schedule this year. #2 per the rankings. KC played #3. I’m as terrified as you are.
 
All you are going to hear the next 2 weeks is how Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be the reason the Niners won’t win the Super Bowl, or that Jimmy G. is a game manager that can’t be the reason SF wins. Media garbage that one show copies from the next and gets spit out and accepted as fact. But Here are some real facts:


-Jimmy G led the NFC and was second in the NFL in yards per attempt
-Jimmy G led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks
-Jimmy G 4th best compl % (69.1%) despite the 3rd highest drop rate (6%)
- 4th best % of on-target throws (80.7%)
- 4th best % of bad throws (13.7%)
- Best YAC per completion (6.6)
-Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy Garoppolo: 21-5
-Kyle Shanahan without Jimmy Garoppolo 4-20

Garoppolo In the 4th quarter:

75-of-107 (70% compl)
8.33 YPA
6 TDs
1 INT
107.1 rating

Garoppolo When trailing:

117-of-161 (73%)
9.1 YPA
11 TDs
3 INTs
115.7 rating
 
Jimmy Garoppolo was the only QB in the NFL to finish in the top 5 in Pass TD, Comp pct and Yds per attempt during the reg. season.
 
Inspekdah said:
All I'm saying is that clearly the analytics in this case don't make much sense. One team had a doomsday gauntlet of scheduling and traveling vs. the best teams in the league. The other team played the Jags, Raiders, and Colts, and a D2 Houston squad who played 0 starters. No need to come at me by saying I don't understand analytics. In this instance, I think they are flawed. We're not comparing the 9ers and the Chiefs here. Somehow it became 9ers vs. Titans and despite your "analytics" the 9ers would be a 7 point favorite.

10 win seasons are literally "Andy Reid" honors and the 9ers had a great team early last decade.

No need to argue. I'm terrified of this match-up as a 9ers fan.
Click to expand...

Because one game is an extremely small sample size, anyone can beat anyone at this level

It's not a predictive measure, it shows what has actually happened

Why dont they make sense outside of you being a 49ers fan?
 
Inspekdah said:
All I'm saying is that clearly the analytics in this case don't make much sense. One team had a doomsday gauntlet of scheduling and traveling vs. the best teams in the league. The other team played the Jags, Raiders, and Colts, and a D2 Houston squad who played 0 starters. No need to come at me by saying I don't understand analytics. In this instance, I think they are flawed. We're not comparing the 9ers and the Chiefs here. Somehow it became 9ers vs. Titans and despite your "analytics" the 9ers would be a 7 point favorite.

10 win seasons are literally "Andy Reid" honors and the 9ers had a great team early last decade.

No need to argue. I'm terrified of this match-up as a 9ers fan.
Click to expand...

The analytics take the opponent and all of that into account. Outside of SF being your squad, what is flawed about the analytics?
 
This is also where all of the Pats haters should be thanking their lucky stars that BB decided to trade Jimmy G...or else that dynasty may be going strong for another decade. I don’t get the “game manager” crap for Jimmy, he’s a legit top tier QB in today’s NFL.
 
Inspekdah said:
All I'm saying is that clearly the analytics in this case don't make much sense. One team had a doomsday gauntlet of scheduling and traveling vs. the best teams in the league. The other team played the Jags, Raiders, and Colts, and a D2 Houston squad who played 0 starters. No need to come at me by saying I don't understand analytics. In this instance, I think they are flawed. We're not comparing the 9ers and the Chiefs here. Somehow it became 9ers vs. Titans and despite your "analytics" the 9ers would be a 7 point favorite.

10 win seasons are literally "Andy Reid" honors and the 9ers had a great team early last decade.

No need to argue. I'm terrified of this match-up as a 9ers fan.
Click to expand...

The Niners had a great team early last decade is the best thing about this post. It’s GOLD Jerry, GOLD!!!
 
TheHbomb said:
All you are going to hear the next 2 weeks is how Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be the reason the Niners won’t win the Super Bowl, or that Jimmy G. is a game manager that can’t be the reason SF wins. Media garbage that one show copies from the next and gets spit out and accepted as fact. But Here are some real facts:


-Jimmy G led the NFC and was second in the NFL in yards per attempt
-Jimmy G led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks
-Jimmy G 4th best compl % (69.1%) despite the 3rd highest drop rate (6%)
- 4th best % of on-target throws (80.7%)
- 4th best % of bad throws (13.7%)
- Best YAC per completion (6.6)
-Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy Garoppolo: 21-5
-Kyle Shanahan without Jimmy Garoppolo 4-20

Garoppolo In the 4th quarter:

75-of-107 (70% compl)
8.33 YPA
6 TDs
1 INT
107.1 rating

Garoppolo When trailing:

117-of-161 (73%)
9.1 YPA
11 TDs
3 INTs
115.7 rating
Click to expand...
All good but his inexperience still is a concern for me. I know Mahomes is inexperienced too - but those 2 comebacks in playoffs are hard to ignore.

If Mahomes was SF QB there would be no doubt who to take in this game. Rational or not this is the angle that is bothering me.
 
Why wouldn't KC game plan for ball control? SF's ability to wear a D right down would have me wanting to keep them on the sidelines. Damien Williams didn't have a great day rushing last week but I would expect him to get some early carries and screens. SF is so quick to the ball so I do think there is less of a big play potential off of the short stuff, maybe the clock is running more. Mahomie is so elusive that I do think things can open up downfield for him.

This total stinks! I was all about overs last week but this line was set to attract over $$$ and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a 26-24 type finish. All it takes is a couple long fg drives or a 3 pt quarter to kill the total. Wouldn't be surprised at a 70+ pt final score either but how easy is it to like the over?
 
Lexington 125 said:
This total stinks! I was all about overs last week but this line was set to attract over $$$ and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see a 26-24 type finish. All it takes is a couple long fg drives or a 3 pt quarter to kill the total. Wouldn't be surprised at a 70+ pt final score either but how easy is it to like the over?
Click to expand...
The total stinks, big time. Reminds me of how the entire world was on the Saints over the Vikings because it was free money. The over in the Super Bowl feels very much the same. I’ll probably have some action on the under.
 
You guys think the last third of the season was more impressive for the Titans than the 49ers? Just asking that question, and that question alone. Throw out analytics.

Jags, Colts, Raiders, and Texans without their starters are certified BYE weeks.

They lost to the Saints at home by DD and the 9ers beat them on the road. Titans got outplayed @ home vs. the Texans with the division on the line while the 9ers lost to Baltimore on a last second FG.
 
Both these teams can score when trailing. I have a hard time seeing it staying under. 9ers have let up come from behind scores all season - especially to scrambling QBs.

I feel like this would have to be a Pat's vs. Giants offensive meltdown to keep KC off the board for it to stay under. But who knows. Last year's SB was about 40 points off. KC's 2nd half defense has looked much better than the 1st.
 
TheHbomb said:
All you are going to hear the next 2 weeks is how Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be the reason the Niners won’t win the Super Bowl, or that Jimmy G. is a game manager that can’t be the reason SF wins. Media garbage that one show copies from the next and gets spit out and accepted as fact. But Here are some real facts:


-Jimmy G led the NFC and was second in the NFL in yards per attempt
-Jimmy G led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks
-Jimmy G 4th best compl % (69.1%) despite the 3rd highest drop rate (6%)
- 4th best % of on-target throws (80.7%)
- 4th best % of bad throws (13.7%)
- Best YAC per completion (6.6)
-Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy Garoppolo: 21-5
-Kyle Shanahan without Jimmy Garoppolo 4-20

Garoppolo In the 4th quarter:

75-of-107 (70% compl)
8.33 YPA
6 TDs
1 INT
107.1 rating

Garoppolo When trailing:

117-of-161 (73%)
9.1 YPA
11 TDs
3 INTs
115.7 rating
Click to expand...

1579706302962.png
 
If GQ throws a pick look out. It's like smacking Hulk Hogan in the face. All-time #s after throwing a pick dude just goes to another level.
 
Inspekdah said:
Both these teams can score when trailing. I have a hard time seeing it staying under. 9ers have let up come from behind scores all season - especially to scrambling QBs.

I feel like this would have to be a Pat's vs. Giants offensive meltdown to keep KC off the board for it to stay under. But who knows. Last year's SB was about 40 points off. KC's 2nd half defense has looked much better than the 1st.
Click to expand...
KCs defense both adjusts well after half it seems and also plays better with a lead when the other team has to change their gameplan. IMO
 
bones said:
All good but his inexperience still is a concern for me. I know Mahomes is inexperienced too - but those 2 comebacks in playoffs are hard to ignore.

If Mahomes was SF QB there would be no doubt who to take in this game. Rational or not this is the angle that is bothering me.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure the 9ers would have had anymore success than they've already had if the QBs were switched. Kyle runs an on-time, accurate, system and I don't see how GQ could be any better last 2 months. Pat also has superior weapons vs. Jimmy.. although Kelce looks like 40 year old Witten in comparison to Kittle.

It's Reid who has benefited most from scrambling QBs making miraculous plays with their feet. McNabb, Vick, Patty M.
 
Inspekdah said:
I'm not sure the 9ers would have had anymore success than they've already had if the QBs were switched. Kyle runs an on-time, accurate, system and I don't see how GQ could be any better last 2 months. Pat also has superior weapons vs. Jimmy.. although Kelce looks like 40 year old Witten in comparison to Kittle.

It's Reid who has benefited most from scrambling QBs making miraculous plays with their feet. McNabb, Vick, Patty M.
Click to expand...
Understood. I guess what I am saying is Mahomes is best QB in NFL. Hard to ignore that is who he is.....Namath in '68 comes to mind in this game for me. The young whipper snapper just does what he does.

Then again, its forgotten that it was the defense that won that game. 16-7.

 
Not sure why people think the Chiefs D is not good. Took them a few weeks with a new scheme and like 8 new starters to get things together but what about the last 2 months makes anyone think the D is not solid?
 
Inspekdah said:
You guys think the last third of the season was more impressive for the Titans than the 49ers? Just asking that question, and that question alone. Throw out analytics.

Jags, Colts, Raiders, and Texans without their starters are certified BYE weeks.

They lost to the Saints at home by DD and the 9ers beat them on the road. Titans got outplayed @ home vs. the Texans with the division on the line while the 9ers lost to Baltimore on a last second FG.
Click to expand...

You are really hung up on this
 
aplous said:
Not sure why people think the Chiefs D is not good. Took them a few weeks with a new scheme and like 8 new starters to get things together but what about the last 2 months makes anyone think the D is not solid?
Click to expand...

I think it's a pretty solid group now. Well above average vs. the pass and a solid pass rush.
 
Inspekdah said:
They lost to the Saints at home by DD and the 9ers beat them on the road. Titans got outplayed @ home vs. the Texans with the division on the line
Click to expand...


Question. Did Derrick Henry play against the Saints? Question. Did the Niners get outplayed at home by the Falcons with the #1 seed in the balance? You legitimately could have gone 0-5 the last 5 weeks of the season if not for some literally miraculous plays.





Inspekdah said:
Pat also has superior weapons vs. Jimmy.. although Kelce looks like 40 year old Witten in comparison to Kittle.
Click to expand...

lol. Better weapons in one statement, But the future HOF TE who is only 30 is a disaster compared to Kittle . The RB trio, Sanders, Samuel and Kittle aren’t exactly bad weapons at all. Pretty close to even if you ask me.

4th quarter comebacks? Lol. Matt Stafford has the most per season in NFL history. You know what it means? Your team is losing often.
 
Kittle’s the best player in football according to analytics. He is significantly better than Kelce according to PFF.
 
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