Super Bowl Discussion - San Francisco vs. Kansas City

aplous said:
Same as v Titans. Hope to stop the run without stacking the box and make the QB beat you. Chiefs only stacked the box (8 or more guys) like 17% last week, least Tennessee had faced since week 6 I believe. I think they'll play it pretty safe early and try not to get beat with the misdirection and play action stuff....then hopefully have a lead and blitz him late.
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That stat surprises me. Was that all in the scoring drives?
 
Chiefs run key is to secure the edges and protect the LBs. Packers were so bad at getting off blocks and getting LBs flowing to the ball.
 
B.A.R. said:
What's the Chiefs gameplan on defense...do we think?
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That's the key question. I dont think KC will have a consistent answer. Make no mistake, Pops Shanahan is a big part of this game plan. Kyle is benefiting from this as well as implementing his genius ideas. I'm telling you guys, I dont think this is as close as people think its gonna be. Just my opinion of course
 
Shows you how good Mahomeboy is that the Chiefs are slightly favored when 18 of the top 25 players rated play for the Faithful.
 
Re: Sharps, etc

Big wagers thus far,,, in no order

$1 million- SF ML +120- Mirage
$110K on over 52.5 Westgate
$91.6K on SF +1 Westgate
$500K KC -1 Caesars
$684K SF +2 DraftKings Sportsbook
$550K KC -1 Bellagio
$120K SF +1 CG Technology
$120K KC -1 CG Technology
$200K KC -1 MGM
$150K KC ML -125 MGM
$55K KC -1 MGM
$50K KC -1 CG Technology (came in after I had posted)

Mattress Mack is clearly in there.. No telling what money is sharp and what money is just money.

The line keeps trending toward 1.5 most shops, so perhaps slight sharp money that way but nothing reported thus far as like "Sharp groups" or "regular sharp syndicates" etc.
 
MM was the SF +120 for a cool million. They discussed that on VSIN this morning & said it was bullshit & breaks rules to change the line for one bet.
 
Zeke said:
MM was the SF +120 for a cool million. They discussed that on VSIN this morning & said it was bullshit & breaks rules to change the line for one bet.
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Yeah it's against the rules but they left it at 120 for a bit and 115 for a bit after to effectively curb any potential issues.
 
Capaholic said:
Re: Sharps, etc

Big wagers thus far,,, in no order

$1 million- SF ML +120- Mirage
$110K on over 52.5 Westgate
$91.6K on SF +1 Westgate
$500K KC -1 Caesars
$684K SF +2 DraftKings Sportsbook
$550K KC -1 Bellagio
$120K SF +1 CG Technology
$120K KC -1 CG Technology
$200K KC -1 MGM
$150K KC ML -125 MGM
$55K KC -1 MGM
$50K KC -1 CG Technology (came in after I had posted)

Mattress Mack is clearly in there.. No telling what money is sharp and what money is just money.

The line keeps trending toward 1.5 most shops, so perhaps slight sharp money that way but nothing reported thus far as like "Sharp groups" or "regular sharp syndicates" etc.
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly, the 684K Bet was the guy who bought from 1.5 to 2. No idea why he bought there, but it's his money.
 
Books pretty explicitly saying that side liability depends on the shop, no major consensus. It’s really gonna come down to the total, which will also dictate the Over props action.

i wouldn’t get too hung up on public / sharp percentages on a pickem super bowl that doesn’t offer a meaningful favorite or a juicy looking ML underdog.
 
raems said:
Books pretty explicitly saying that side liability depends on the shop, no major consensus. It’s really gonna come down to the total, which will also dictate the Over props action.

i wouldn’t get too hung up on public / sharp percentages on a pickem super bowl that doesn’t offer a meaningful favorite or a juicy looking ML underdog.
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Exactly. Rams were a smart money sharp dog last year.
 
Pretty good read for the analytics community in this thread. From FO. Confirmed a lot of views made by many, debunks a few. Special teams section surprised me in that I expected KC to have a significant advantage but that doesn't seem the case. Gut says KC has a higher ceiling to make a ST impact play but that can be both special and not-so-special (witness the 1st half of Texan game).
www.footballoutsiders.com

Super Bowl LIV Preview

Offense is generally more predictive than defense, and passing is stronger than rushing. That points to Kansas City as the favorite in Super Bowl LIV. But the San Francisco offense won't go quietly and has some major advantages on the other side of this matchup.
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com
 
Inspekdah said:
You're right. His voice is terrible.
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It's not even his voice, I barely see him on tv

His Twitter is just wild, throwing hot takes left and right, pretending to be a gambling, football, and basketball expert

He gets crushed in the replies to his stuff, especially gambling related, more than anyone outside rovell
 
May be more impactful for live betting but something to watch for, and why kelce is the most valuable TE in the league, he forces the defense to give up whether its man or zone, if the 49ers show that and arent ready to disguise coverage even after motion, mahomes has a huge advantage

Sf doesnt get the same out of kittle since he lines up beside the tackle almost every play
 
KC are unbalanced on offense with a great QB vs the top ranked pass D. SF's #2 ranked rushing offense vs KC's 26th rushing Defense. Did I mention the Niners scoring offense is ranked 2? How is there not a statistical edge in the game and side who looks a lot better?
 
wiseplayer said:
KC are unbalanced on offense with a great QB vs the top ranked pass D. SF's #2 ranked rushing offense vs KC's 26th rushing Defense. Did I mention the Niners scoring offense is ranked 2? How is there not a statistical edge in the game and side who looks a lot better?
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I would say there isn’t necessarily a statistical edge when using antiquated stats. The DVOA and other stats break down the numbers a little more than simply raw/total numbers.
 
guaranteeed said:
May be more impactful for live betting but something to watch for, and why kelce is the most valuable TE in the league, he forces the defense to give up whether its man or zone, if the 49ers show that and arent ready to disguise coverage even after motion, mahomes has a huge advantage

Sf doesnt get the same out of kittle since he lines up beside the tackle almost every play
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I'd argue Kittle is more valuable just because he lines up as a traditional TE as opposed to the new breed of TE which is just a big WR.

Also 49ers play man/zone almost every play. I don't think Kelce will change that. Especially since the LB core is as fast as any in the league.
 
guaranteeed said:
It's not even his voice, I barely see him on tv

His Twitter is just wild, throwing hot takes left and right, pretending to be a gambling, football, and basketball expert

He gets crushed in the replies to his stuff, especially gambling related, more than anyone outside rovell
Click to expand...

I never followed it but just checked it out.

Dude is cringe.
 
Capaholic said:
Re: Sharps, etc

Big wagers thus far,,, in no order

$1 million- SF ML +120- Mirage
$110K on over 52.5 Westgate
$91.6K on SF +1 Westgate
$500K KC -1 Caesars
$684K SF +2 DraftKings Sportsbook
$550K KC -1 Bellagio
$120K SF +1 CG Technology
$120K KC -1 CG Technology
$200K KC -1 MGM
$150K KC ML -125 MGM
$55K KC -1 MGM
$50K KC -1 CG Technology (came in after I had posted)

Mattress Mack is clearly in there.. No telling what money is sharp and what money is just money.

The line keeps trending toward 1.5 most shops, so perhaps slight sharp money that way but nothing reported thus far as like "Sharp groups" or "regular sharp syndicates" etc.
Click to expand...

Thoughts on both 1st H TT Overs? SF 13 -115, KC -13.5 -140 is what I have. Always value your posts and opinions so thank you!
 
The night of the AFC Championship we were out to dinner and Butker was there with his family and a priest. (yes a priest). I was not as polite.. I am an asshole. I drunkenly gave him a hug.
 
guaranteeed said:
It's not even his voice, I barely see him on tv

His Twitter is just wild, throwing hot takes left and right, pretending to be a gambling, football, and basketball expert

He gets crushed in the replies to his stuff, especially gambling related, more than anyone outside rovell
Click to expand...
He gets more defensive than anyone too, it's great. The 'legal' USA betting has brought out so much to laugh at media-wise. It's terrific (and sad).
 
Shanahan would have their balls if they drank. Doubt any of them did. Not the DNA of this team. Can’t speak for the Chiefs.
 
Inspekdah said:
Shanahan would have their balls if they drank. Doubt any of them did. Not the DNA of this team. Can’t speak for the Chiefs.
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It’s gossip , but Benza been doing this a long time so would make sense that he has tons of contacts in the nightclub scene in Miami

Didn’t seem ridiculous

of course no idea who these players are
 
They dont play until Sunday night. Even if they did party all night Thursday. Do the math. They have Friday, Saturday and all Sunday morning to recoup. It's no problem. Keep betting KC because it's what everyone else is doing. Why? Only 1 reason. Patty Mahomes.
 
aplous said:
I might have to eat my words on this and he could have 2.5 sacks in the game and I'll still stand by it but Dee Ford stinks. He has 1 move....speed rush. And I think Mitch Schwartz shuts him down. He's about 4th or 5th on my list of 49er DL that scare me on Sunday. He's a situational speed rusher. And cost us a Super Bowl last year.
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I saw a prop.

Will Dee Ford have an offsides penalty?
 
wiseplayer said:
They dont play until Sunday night. Even if they did party all night Thursday. Do the math. They have Friday, Saturday and all Sunday morning to recoup. It's no problem. Keep betting KC because it's what everyone else is doing. Why? Only 1 reason. Patty Mahomes.
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I love your confidence. Hope the Faithful come through for you.
 
Ryno14 said:
If I remember correctly, the 684K Bet was the guy who bought from 1.5 to 2. No idea why he bought there, but it's his money.
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I fell off my chair when I read this, had to dig deeper. Looks like dude paid -114 for the +2. Helps me wrap my head around it a little better knowing the price wasn't -120
 
Looking at the tape (reruns of playoff games) I actually don’t think Mahomes legs present the same problem that Murray, Wilson, and Jackson presented. He’s a good .3 seconds slower (4.8 vs 4.3-4.5) and that could come into play here. 9ers were inches from having those mobile guys wrapped up. Interesting and fascinating to see how it will play out.
 
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