Nevada +10 vs Arizona
Stat that Stands Out
295.9
Thats how many ypg, the Zona Air Defense gives up. Just a fucking staggering number. You wanna know what kinda company that number has?? Only Toledo, Baylor, West Virginia & LaTech give up more. If it were a passing offense itself it would rank #22 in the nation ahead of Miami. To allow that on average over a full 12 game slate indicates either: 1. You have athletes that are NOT Division 1 football players on your defense, 2. You have an awful coordinator, 3. You have kids who dont buy into the system, 4. A HC who doesnt care about defense, 4. A combination of all the above. I dont believe #2 is is correct, Jeff Casteel is a great DC. My thought is its less than Division 1 defensive players & a HC who doesnt care for defense.
On The Ground
Zona is running the vaunted Rich Rod spread and is running the leather off the football. 230ypg, 5,4ypc. Very good numbers indeed!! Kadeem Carey is the Nation's leading rusher at 146.4/gm. He'll get the ball, get it often and go the distance quite a bit. Kid is a legit stud!! Zona has a large sorta veteran athletic OLine, so they are quite solid up there. Running Rich Rod's run first spread with that type of line is SCARY, its downright frightening with THAT RB back there. Simply put RR seeks to make you thin in the areas he wants to attack, and most often thats actually inside. Rich Rod LOVES to bust the big runs up the gut. So he'll spread you out isolate what you want to do & who you want to do it with, then attack it. He'll find that LB you have that has recognition problems, he'll find that DE you have thattakes false steps, he'll find that Safety you have that doesnt like contact. And he will attack them mercilessly! BAD news for Nevada.
Nevada on the other hand runs the ball BETTER than Arizona. Yeah thats right I said BETTER. Some person will say" But Silky they played a shitty schedule and Arizona playe d a tough one". To which I say I dont care if you played a team of old deaf dumb and blind bithces, to avg 260yds/gm on the ground after 12gms you can run the fucking ball. Nevada has the nations 2nd leading rusher Stefphon Jefferson 141.9yds/gm. And this dude is a complete stud as well. A game changer/workhorse. Almost 29att/gm, he'll get it aLOT and he'll be effective with it. Nevada of course runs the Pistol which Chris Ault invented and it allows his teams to do a myriad of things without tipping their hand.
In the Air
Zona puts up damn near 300yds/gm in the air as well. They are just an offensive juggernaut. This is Matt Scott's domain and he is LEGIT!! He's a very talented accurate passer, and he'll make teams pay who pay too much attention to his RB. This aint your father's dink& dunk RR passing offense. They get vertical. RR was known for having a basic route tree & tons of screens. the screens remain but with Scott the route tree has become more professional. You will see some really great route concepts bult off of the run action that Zona uses. Add that Scott is amongst the best passing down passers and Zona's pass Offense is deadly!
Nevada counters with a pretty magical dude themselves, Cody Fajardo.He's just a Soph, but is completing 67% of his passes! WOW!!! That level of accuracy makes it very hard for teams to focus on stopping the run, He'll simply pull the ball from Jefferson's stomachand hit his Receiver crossing behind the attacking linebacker and pick up the 1st. Thats important on both 3rd & passing downs AND obvious running downs. Add that Zona is just plain awful defending the pass and we can begin to see an area that will keep Nevada in this game.
What I See
Zona & Nevada are going to have offensive fireworks. They will both move the ball, they will both also fumble it . Zona may struggle in the RZ as they have done all season. If they do& must kick a couple FGs instead of getting TDs, Nevada will cover. Because as long as Zona cant play pass defense & must contain Jefferson, the big play is ALWAYS there.There will be at various times 10-17pt leads by either team. In the end though I think Nevada actually pulls out a screamer.......
Nevada 38 Arizona 37
. Best of luck to you this bowl season bro
