Silky's Diamond Bowls

My worst week in over 2mos and I go 2-2. Sometimes when your going good everything goes good lol

So 4-2 in bowls now

Ill prolly be looking to lay em with Fresno at 11. Not confirmed yet though
 
Haha thanks Hunt & happy holidays to you as well

Adding: Fresno -11 -116

good luck fellas

happy holidays to you as well Play and to the entire board
 
Took a lump riding with Fresno. Oh well, I made 2 plays on it so now 4-4. Moving on to tonight:

Central Mich vs Western Kentucky -5.5 (Now -6.5)


Stat That Stands Out:

441.2


That’s how many yds/gm CMU allows. Usually I try to find a nugget under the surface to unlock something. But this number is descriptive enough. That’s a shit ton on yards, AND they’re giving that amount up at 6.05yds/play. The CMU defense is a sieve. Add that CMU aint exactly lighting things up offensively (394yds/gm) and you get the recipe for a loss, unless the other team implodes.



On The Ground

Cent Mich gets 151yds/gm on the ground and 76.7% (115.9) come on the legs of Zurlon Tipton. A workhorse by the very definition of one. He is essentially the key to the entire CMU offense. Stop him and you pretty much blow out CMU. In CMU’s 6 losses they haven’t crossed the 130yd on the ground mark & Tipton has been held to 126 or less in those games. Point being, Stop Tipton stop CMU

On the otherhand, CMU is a 4 lane highway for teams that can & love to run. Teams are rushing 40att/gm & 197yds/gm against them. Essentially allowing the opponent to control tempo & the clock. 9 times this season teams have crossed 150yds on the ground against CMU, 5 times over 200yds and 1 time over 400yds. 29 of 53 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] & <7yd have been converted by opponents on the ground, that’s a STRONG 54.7%!! Meaning teams don’t even have to consider passing on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] unless its 7+. That’s a HUGE disadvantage for a defense. It keeps teams on the field & exposes CMU to the Big play.

Western Kentucky is a throwback pro-style run 1[SUP]st[/SUP] offense. Mainly because Coach Taggart grew up on the knee of Jack Harbaugh & coached under Jim Harbaugh. So when you think of how a Jim Harbaugh offense looks, the WKU offense is almost a carbon copy with less talented players. They rush nearly 40att/gm for 186.5yds/gm. Healthy by all accounts and a perfect elixir to beat up on CMU. This is a possession/ball control offense. Its goal is to stay on schedule, pick its spots to get the big play and keep your offense off the field. Again CMU was almost tailor made for WKY in this fashion.
The man powering this running game is Antonio Andrews, who with 81yds will break Bobby Rainey’s single season rushing record. Andrews was an afterthought before this season and coming into it most didn’t expect he’d become the stud he is. But with the Taggart pro style offense Andrews may have put himself into some pro consideration. 58% of the carries come through Andrews & 72% of the yards are on his legs. Again another PURE workhorse.

Defensively WKU is doing a great job of holding opponents down in the running game, giving up 136.5yds/gm. Good enough for #33 nationally. They've held 9 of 12 opponents under 150yds including Arky St & Bama. Though 3 of the last 4gms they've yielded 150+ & 2 of the last 4 200+. So some concern is there as to whether they have worn down over the year. Then again CMU's rush offense is closer to FIU than it is ULaLa or Mid Tenn St.



Through the air

CMU isnt very good at pass defense, they are #77 nationally and has allowed 300+ in 3 of its last 5. The only 2 not going over 300+ were UMass (253) & EMich (120). 2 of the worst passing offenses in CFB. Teams are completing 62% of their passes for 7.4ypa against CMU. That means they are making an efficient healthy living in the air against CMU. Add that with the run defense woes and you see why opponents are converting 3rds at a healthy 43.5% clip. Also CMU doesnt sack the QB (14), further adding difficulty to their weak pass defense. When a team must devote the resources CMU must to the running game, it often leaves a bad secondary in no man's land.

This is the worst CMU passing attack in at least 5yrs. They are under 60% completions and at 243yds well below what they normally produce. This adds further strain to the running game. Though they have a healthy ypa, so they are getting the ball down the field. But they arent able to control possession with passing as in the past. Good news is Ryan Radcliff is 2/1 TD/Int so that means they always have a shot, but also means that shot is most often dependent on the defense stopping someone. 2 of their top 3WRs are OUT for the game which should severely hamper the passing game and a ton more pressure on the run game. NOT good vs WKY

WKY's passing game is all about efficiency & accuracy. High percentage passes from the WCO playbook, tons of motion & PA passes. As evidenced by their leading receivers (1TE 1RB & 1WR) the WKY passing game is all about ball control and taking measured shots. Jack Doyle the TE leading receiver is gonna play on Sundays is most often a matchup nightmare for all but BCS conf teams. When Doyle is getting it its Andrews the RB & when you've rolled everyone up to take out those 2 they strike with possession receiver Willie McNeil. They really are all that WKY does in the pass game, but they're good at it. The triggerman Kawaun Jakes is good & efficient and sometimes takes off. Starting the year he was on fire, but after injury he's tossed more ints. The ratio is still good at 2/1 but a far cry from being the almost 4/1 they were before the injury.

WKY is pretty lockdown on passing D. #31 in the nation and having played some pretty good passing offenses. They hold opponents to just 205yds/gm less than 7ypa & under 60% completions. In otherwords you'd better be REALLY stellar if you wanna make your money through the air. I dont consider CMU stellar passing.



What I see

This game may have written up in a script for WKY, what they do well CMU does poorly, what they dont do well CMU cant do. I think WKY, runs the rock, shortens the game, forces CMU into passing and sits back to watch Radcliff struggle enoough to produce the cover

WKY 34 CMU 24
 
The last month of the regular season would be the concern. Enos should just load the L.O.S. the way he did against Michigan State but that would be giving that idiot too much credit. Best of luck
 
Duke vs Cincinnati -7.5



Stat That Stands Out:

200.2

Thats how many yards per game Duke allows on the ground. No doubt they've faced some top rush Os (GT, FSU, Clemson, UNC) but at some fucking point you have to stop the brutal abuse somewhere right? Their last 8 gms saw teams top 150yds, 5 of those 8 over 200+, 4 of those 8 over 250+ and 2 of those over 300!!



I touched on Duke's ineptitude in stopping the run above, but their futility on the offensive side of the ground could actually be as bad or worse. They get a whopping 119yds/gm on 33att. Strange thing is 3 of their best rushing outputs were against some of the statistically highly rated defenses. Topped by 234 on UNC. Very strange indeed as this same team picked up less than 30 twice and less than 90 vs both GT & Clemson. In the end the Duke Running game is inept and is there to keep teams that focus too many resources on stopping the pass honest. If you dont scheme properly they can bust a couple big ones that only enhance the effectiveness of their passing game.

Talked about Duke's rush defense above so no need ot rehasha a cut & dry subject.

Cincy has gone over 190yds 9 of 12 fucking games. Dont gimme any shit about who its against yadda yadda, gaining 190yds in of 12 games for a team that doesnt run triple option is fucking phenomenal. Its ground game dominance and EXACTLY the thing Duke does not want to see. George Winn & Ralph David Abernathy are the names. Winn is the main man, always a threat to go the distance, but sturrdy enough to pick up the brute yards. RDAIV is the quick as lightning X-factor that must be accounted for when trying to deal with Winn. Commit too much to stopping Winn and you'll see lil RDAIV scoot around the edge with his sub 4.3 40 speed and array of moves. Definitely a person to watch in this game as I believe they may have more than a few "highlight" plays designed for him.

They Cincy Run defense is stingy at 130yds/gm on 35att. Though they dont even really need to be vs Duke. If Duke is trying to make money on the ground vs Cincy you can cash this ticket before half. Just wont happen. Cincy's D scheme gets a TON of pressure from the DTs allowing them to never really have to blitz. And when they do its effective. They held 9 of 13 under 150yds. Damned good in my book. They focus on eating the run up in early downs in order to pin their ears back and just rush the pass. You'll see lots of stunts, tricks games etc upfront that put a lot of pressure on Olines. That allows their LBs "The Killer Bees" Blair & Bomar to rack up the tackles and clean up whatever the DL doesnt eat up. Very effective scheme and a good reason DC Jancek is going to Tenny to run that D now.



Through The Air

If Duke is going to Cover/Win,its will be in this area. David Cutcliffe has ALWAYS been a passing game genius, his extraordinary skill in teaching the position matched with his innovative way of calling the game is a match made in heaven. And how a team like Duke can be competitive. There are bunch of shorter throws that take what the defense gives as Cutcliffe realizes that if he spreads you out and has a good triggerman that gets the ball out quick someone MUST be open. This takes a lot paitience from the Defense because Duke is perfectly fine with picking up 3 or 4yds each pass until you adjust then hitting you over the top when you do. The key to stopping Duke is getting quick pressure up the middle. If you cannot Duke will pester you and hang around all game. But if you can bring up the middle pressure and rush the decision making, you can then have your secondary play up and wait on the quick pass for either a short gain or a pick 6. Duke has 3 WRs with 60+ catches so its a pick your poison deal. Most teams just dont have 3 DBs talented enough to stop 3 really good WRs. You'll see Duke employ alot of 4-5 WR sets to make Cincy bring in back up DBs that Renfree will target.

Cincy has a passing game built entirely off its run game. They want you poking your nose up to stop the run game, at which point TE Travis Kelce sneaks behind the backers on a crossing pattern. They'll hit that off read option looks a few times then hit WRs McClung or Thompkins crossing back the other way when your safety starts peeking at Kelce too much. Its a damned if you do damned if you dont kinda deal. The saving grace for defenses is the fact that Cincy's passing game has flipping a coin until Munchie Legeaux was benched. Brendan Kay has come in and hit over 60% of his passes in the last 4gms and that has made the Cincy passing game dangerous. No more wildly sailing Munchie passes, now you're getting accurate shots to the playmakers.

The Cincy pass defense makes people pass quick & short and generally turns it into a coin flip proposition. The reason for this is the good rush they are able to generate from just the front 4. The Bearcats have 30 sacks, 18 of those from the front 4 rotation. With all the games & stunts they mentally tax an offensive line, and after about 2.5 qtrs of the Cincy offense playing the way they do they are usually up enough to just pin their ears back. While not a ton of Ints, all the upfront pressure has allowed Cincy to be #14 in the nation in passes defended (72). They get their hands on a lot of passes and if they could catch a few more they'd be close to unstoppable. Disturbing that UConn lit them up, Ville & Teddy B went for over 400 and Miami Oh put up 320. So Duke CAN take advantage of Cincy if they can take care of the upfront pressure. A REAL concern



What I see

Cincy just too much running game & too much defense. Concerned whenever Tubberville just shows up especially at the bowl game. Guys like Tommy dont exactly "just leave shit be". Then again guys like Tubbs also seem to knwo what the fuck they're doing too. I think Duke puts up some points with some aerial acrobatics but in the end Cincy runs away.

Cincy 34 Duke 20


 
That's a helluva compliment coming from who I consider hands down the king of breaking games down and relaying pertinent info. Thanks bro and as always best of luck to you
 
My man I know you got a piece of Mich St ML, when I made the play I thought this was right up your alley.

You ready for today though? You already know the DMV is electric bruh lol.

Just to get you going lol
[video=youtube;engll3ZXB0A]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=engll3ZXB0A[/video]
 
12/9-12/15: 2-0 +2.5u
12/20-12/22:2-2 -.3u
12/24-12/28: 6-5 -.86u

total:--------> 10-7 +1.34u

Overall: 100-61-1 62.1% | 66-31 66% Heater | 18-8 69.2% L26

The heater cooled a bit, but just like when making extra hard steel, there must be some cooling between suprheating phases. Besides the cooling was 8-7 lol, thats HOT to some. Anyways the meat of the bowls is up now and its time to shine once again. Good luck fellas & ladies
 
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Hunt Im glad you're onboard with it tonight. I hope they show out and get you that money bro. The area around here is amazing right now. Everywhere you go its Burgundy & Gold except for the few bammas with their Cowgirls gear lol. Unfortunately for me, my girl is a Cowgirl fan :(.
 
It's gonna be crazy tonight. Hopefully ur boy tony romo will silence tha crowd early ;)
 
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I'm peeking at the skins tt silky. Hoping they win for my future on them, plus I have a man crush on Rg3
 
I'm peeking at the skins tt silky. Hoping they win for my future on them, plus I have a man crush on Rg3

What do you think about the total for the game? I keep hearing under but I think there may be some points scored. Thinking about waiting until half to jump in.
 
Get that heater rollin next few days sir...

Had same WKU thoughts as you basically...and was ready to hit them and thankfully my work schedule was brutal and took away capping time(plus I will look at a play again when a good capper is opposite...this case--tee). I was suprised and happy I couldn't submit it(which negates not getting an earlier play in due to time constraints--aka I slept in).

Like to hear some quick Clemson-Madhatter thoughts if ya could.
 
Silky: appreciate the work.congrats on Skins

Question: Steady winds of 20 mph predicted all game time in El Paso. Any effect on USC Ga Tech game in your opinion?
 
Means my over is toast bones :( lol

Hell, you knew it in advance....maybe you jumped on the under before kick off?

Great win on Clemson, I tailed you on game and DaFreak on 1H under. The combo made for the perfect end to a great day

Saw where takeit gave you a new year's gift....gotta like that.

With you on Wisky today.

Thanks man, best for 2013 to you & yours :shake:
 
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