Took a lump riding with Fresno. Oh well, I made 2 plays on it so now 4-4. Moving on to tonight:
Central Mich vs Western Kentucky -5.5 (Now -6.5)
Stat That Stands Out:
441.2
That’s how many yds/gm CMU allows. Usually I try to find a nugget under the surface to unlock something. But this number is descriptive enough. That’s a shit ton on yards, AND they’re giving that amount up at 6.05yds/play. The CMU defense is a sieve. Add that CMU aint exactly lighting things up offensively (394yds/gm) and you get the recipe for a loss, unless the other team implodes.
On The Ground
Cent Mich gets 151yds/gm on the ground and 76.7% (115.9) come on the legs of Zurlon Tipton. A workhorse by the very definition of one. He is essentially the key to the entire CMU offense. Stop him and you pretty much blow out CMU. In CMU’s 6 losses they haven’t crossed the 130yd on the ground mark & Tipton has been held to 126 or less in those games. Point being, Stop Tipton stop CMU
On the otherhand, CMU is a 4 lane highway for teams that can & love to run. Teams are rushing 40att/gm & 197yds/gm against them. Essentially allowing the opponent to control tempo & the clock. 9 times this season teams have crossed 150yds on the ground against CMU, 5 times over 200yds and 1 time over 400yds. 29 of 53 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] & <7yd have been converted by opponents on the ground, that’s a STRONG 54.7%!! Meaning teams don’t even have to consider passing on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] unless its 7+. That’s a HUGE disadvantage for a defense. It keeps teams on the field & exposes CMU to the Big play.
Western Kentucky is a throwback pro-style run 1[SUP]st[/SUP] offense. Mainly because Coach Taggart grew up on the knee of Jack Harbaugh & coached under Jim Harbaugh. So when you think of how a Jim Harbaugh offense looks, the WKU offense is almost a carbon copy with less talented players. They rush nearly 40att/gm for 186.5yds/gm. Healthy by all accounts and a perfect elixir to beat up on CMU. This is a possession/ball control offense. Its goal is to stay on schedule, pick its spots to get the big play and keep your offense off the field. Again CMU was almost tailor made for WKY in this fashion.
The man powering this running game is Antonio Andrews, who with 81yds will break Bobby Rainey’s single season rushing record. Andrews was an afterthought before this season and coming into it most didn’t expect he’d become the stud he is. But with the Taggart pro style offense Andrews may have put himself into some pro consideration. 58% of the carries come through Andrews & 72% of the yards are on his legs. Again another PURE workhorse.
Defensively WKU is doing a great job of holding opponents down in the running game, giving up 136.5yds/gm. Good enough for #33 nationally. They've held 9 of 12 opponents under 150yds including Arky St & Bama. Though 3 of the last 4gms they've yielded 150+ & 2 of the last 4 200+. So some concern is there as to whether they have worn down over the year. Then again CMU's rush offense is closer to FIU than it is ULaLa or Mid Tenn St.
Through the air
CMU isnt very good at pass defense, they are #77 nationally and has allowed 300+ in 3 of its last 5. The only 2 not going over 300+ were UMass (253) & EMich (120). 2 of the worst passing offenses in CFB. Teams are completing 62% of their passes for 7.4ypa against CMU. That means they are making an efficient healthy living in the air against CMU. Add that with the run defense woes and you see why opponents are converting 3rds at a healthy 43.5% clip. Also CMU doesnt sack the QB (14), further adding difficulty to their weak pass defense. When a team must devote the resources CMU must to the running game, it often leaves a bad secondary in no man's land.
This is the worst CMU passing attack in at least 5yrs. They are under 60% completions and at 243yds well below what they normally produce. This adds further strain to the running game. Though they have a healthy ypa, so they are getting the ball down the field. But they arent able to control possession with passing as in the past. Good news is Ryan Radcliff is 2/1 TD/Int so that means they always have a shot, but also means that shot is most often dependent on the defense stopping someone. 2 of their top 3WRs are OUT for the game which should severely hamper the passing game and a ton more pressure on the run game. NOT good vs WKY
WKY's passing game is all about efficiency & accuracy. High percentage passes from the WCO playbook, tons of motion & PA passes. As evidenced by their leading receivers (1TE 1RB & 1WR) the WKY passing game is all about ball control and taking measured shots. Jack Doyle the TE leading receiver is gonna play on Sundays is most often a matchup nightmare for all but BCS conf teams. When Doyle is getting it its Andrews the RB & when you've rolled everyone up to take out those 2 they strike with possession receiver Willie McNeil. They really are all that WKY does in the pass game, but they're good at it. The triggerman Kawaun Jakes is good & efficient and sometimes takes off. Starting the year he was on fire, but after injury he's tossed more ints. The ratio is still good at 2/1 but a far cry from being the almost 4/1 they were before the injury.
WKY is pretty lockdown on passing D. #31 in the nation and having played some pretty good passing offenses. They hold opponents to just 205yds/gm less than 7ypa & under 60% completions. In otherwords you'd better be REALLY stellar if you wanna make your money through the air. I dont consider CMU stellar passing.
What I see
This game may have written up in a script for WKY, what they do well CMU does poorly, what they dont do well CMU cant do. I think WKY, runs the rock, shortens the game, forces CMU into passing and sits back to watch Radcliff struggle enoough to produce the cover
WKY 34 CMU 24