Stat That Stands Out
178.2
That’s the difference in net combined rushing yds ({Colst Rush – Opp rush} +{ Wazzu Rush yds – Opp rush yds}) between Col St & Wazzu . For a comparison, that Difference if it were a rushing offense itself would rank above: UGA, USC, Penn St, Clemson, Ok st, Miami, & Cincy among others. Inhale all that for just a moment………..
Jim McElwain is a smart guy & really knows offense as a component of a greater whole, rather than just some disparate piece. Meaning he understands every second holding the ball puts Wazzu in a position to have to score efficiently & fast. That means running ball, then forcing Wazzu to bring an extra guy up to stop the run. Pretty much the same recipe McElwain used at Bama to bring opponents to their knees. When opponents got tired of being gashed by the run & Bama holding the ball, they eventually caved and brought an 8th man in the box. At which point McElwain & by extension McCarron dropped death shots over the heads of defenses off play action.
On The Ground
I just explained the crux of this above. But will delve a little further in.
Col St has played 2 defenses worth a shit this year (Bama & Utah St) & as should be expected Col St lost both & failed to reach 150yds rushing. Fortunately for Col st, Wazzu’s defense is much more like Tulsa, San Jose St, Hawaii, Wyoming & New Mexico than Bama & Utah St. Meaning Col st should be able ot establish the run enough to force Wazzu to make some big choices.
Its about time we get familiar with Kapri Bibbs, Colo St’s stud RB. Just a Soph, Bibbs is #13 in the nation in ypg at 120.9yds/gm, #8th in total rush yds with 1572, 3rd in the nation in ypc for runners with >200att at 6.18ypc & most importantly 2nd in the nation only to Keenan Reynolds of Navy in rush TDs with 28. He’s one of the best running backs YOU have never heard of. He’s amassed 800 of his 1572yds & 13 of his rushing TDs against shitty defenses though (Nevada, New Mex & Wyoming). So some of that is skewed, but then again Bibb didn’t even become the primary ballcarrier until the 6th game.
Defensively Col St is solid if unspectacular against the run (151.9yds/gm), but then again why run when you could pass effectively & efficiently vs Col St? But in a matchup where Wazzu only runs because their WRs are tired or their QB’s arm is tired (18.6att/gm), the Col st run Def is more than equipped to handle whatever may come.
Wazzu doesn’t run the ball, period.
Wazzu doesn’t stop the run, period.
Well wasn’t that easy? Lol
Through The Air
We already know who holds the big advantage here. Mike Leach even with pretty shitty WRs has made this Wazzu team a passing machine. Connor Halliday is GOOD! Throws too many Ints for my liking, but gets the ball out quick & passes for a healthy comp % even though he’s throwing it 55att/gm. Put it this way, he’s MORE than good enough to light the Col St DBs up. 1 thing that does bother me is that Wazzu is getting 6.3ypa, that not a long term effective way of winning, much less dominating. You need to be above 7ypz & frankly above 7.5ypa to start being the kind of team that 1 would feel comfortable laying points with. Though I will admit that YPA has a lot to do with Wazzu eschewing the run. The pass has in effect become their running game. But still, warning flag. Another warning flag is the 1.33/1 TD/Int ratio, its something that concerns me for a team that cant run. Turn that thing over enough to an effective ball control team and you find yourself down 10 pts with only a couple minutes left in the game to score.
If you’ve read my threads in year’s past you’ll both be familiar with my adoration of the Air Raid & its basic system. It’s a ball control passing offense, call it West Coast Offense out of the gun. But I hate calling it that because its not truly accurate & doesn’t encompass the offense fully. The Air Raid offense is built on some principle concepts, that within each has an built in answer to the adjustments Defense may make. The same play can be called from the few formations Air Raid teams use but look completely different each time its run. The Shallow cross could be to the slot, the FL, the TE/IR or the SE. A great primer on the Air Raid & specifically how it is implemented in Wazzu is here:
http://www.cougcenter.com/air-raid-offense-playbook-mike-leach Highly suggest taking a read on it.
Wazzu WILL pass on Col St, period
Defensively though Wazzu is just as bad at defending the pass as they are good at doing it on offense. Teams complete over 62% of their passes at almost 8yds/att for 261yds/gm, AND thats on top of Wazzu giving up almost 2 bills a game rushing. In other words Wazzu HAS to be effective & efficient passing because if not the other teams would simply blow them out.
Col St aint so damn shabby passing the ball either, but just being in a game with a team who’s identity is so tied to being a passing juggernaut will outshine Col St’s efforts. They get all the positive checkmarks in my book:
- >60% completions CHECK
- >250yds/gm CHECK
- 7.5ypa CHECK
- 2/1 or better TD/Int CHECK
Again, this is all built on the back of the effectiveness of the Colly St ground game. McElwain aint trying to reinvent the wheel here, he’s going to play the Bama style offense albeit with much lesser athletes. He’s going to commit to winning at the LOS and making you adjust. Just when you do, he’s going to rain over your head across the middle with Play Action. Then when you adjust there he’s going outside to 1 on 1 WRs.
I spoke a little earlier about Colly St not being a very good pass defense & they aren’t. In fact they are 1 of the absolute worst. But I must also say they are barely worse than Wazzu is. My biggest issue with the Coly St pass D is the 3/1 Td/Int ratio, that in effect negates Wazzu’s shitty offensive ratio. Just 9ints on the entire season isn’t just bad, it hampers your team’s chances to win. Colly St MUST get its hands on some Halliday passes and get the ball back to its offense to control.
What I see
I actually see Col St pulling an upset here. Maybe I should have went ML, but I do see Col St actually winning.I think Halliday makes a couple mistakes near the RZ turning TDs into FGs & turnovers. Meanwhile Col St unspectacularly chugs up and down the field, slowly eating some clock & making the most of explosive play opportunities. A couple goofy crazy things by both teams 7 plenty of college kicker facetime.
Col St 33 Wazzu 29
