Sept 9th play thread and analysis


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Staff member
Rutgers -13 -104
Clemson -1 +101
Notre Dame -7 -105
LSU -14 -115
Houston -14 -105
Cal -6.5 -109

posting they are just put in at Pinny.

lots of early movement.....back with discussion later
auburn -20 +100
Rutgers -11 -105
Wyoming +8 -105
Akron +10 -112
NIU -15 -112
NIU -15 -114
Vandy/Bama U 41 -105
Frezz ML +145

All plays are one unit. Rutgers is 2 units but at different numbers and prices
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Alright, BAR. With you on Auburn.

May join you on Houston and Clemson. What are your thoughts on those plays?

I've got Clemson as a 4 point fav and Houston at -17. Houston might be a good play playing at home, embarrassed at Rice, and going against an untested Tulane squad.

BC-Clemson is more of a toss up but think Clemson wins.
Love the clemson play.. cant believe that joke of a line.

By the way be careful with the auburn game.
Don't think the Auburn game will be close but I know about the whole SEC conf game thing. Auburn is superior to S Car in every way and is going to destroy MSU. Figure MSU will score less than a TD combined in their first 2 games.
Fresno State line continues to go up quickly! We could actually get this at +7 or better! I know you got to like it, Big Al -- Oregon possible look ahead to Oklahoma next week and playing in the Fresno snake pit? Line up to +5 right now . . . . . .
They won't look past Fresno St. Fresno St will have difficulty from here on out sneaking up on opponents. Their reputation as giant killers is well cemented.

Also, Fresno St almost beat Oregon at Autzen last year. Oregon will be ready for a game.
like oregon, agree that fresno is not a sleeper anymore, everyone knows about them and oregon knows that they probally should have lost to them last year. Oregon wants to prove there top25 worthy and dixon and stewert will get them there by 10 pts
I like Clemson a lot- I stated some of them in my thread...Have you already locked the above games in?
I'm with denny on this one. I'm waiting on Fresno to hit +7. Oregon def. will has the look ahead to Oklahoma since losing the bowl game earlier in the year to them. Fresno will give them all they can handle at home no matter how good Oregon looked this weekend.
Do not fall for Clemson.

abcs - how can you say that is a joke of a line?

BC last 2 years at home -- 9-2
Clemson last 2 years on the road -- 4-7

You are laying 1 point one point on the road with Clemson and you like that?

Clemson rolling FLATL is nothing special and I the perception I am sure is that BC failed to cover on the road to CMICH will play heavily into this line. Call me crazy but I will gladly take BC ML. They might even close as a 3.5 pt dog.
Sooner, Oregon was scary good last week vs. Stanford. I doubt they will look ahead, since Fresno always plays ORegon very very tough, even though rarely win. I don't think they will overlook the bulldogs.
:spank:I really wanted to see the plays BAR, but there seems to be a cloud of chalk restricting my damn view!!!!
Okay...sorry for delay...we will discuss these more in next few days

First, really glad I got down on ND and Cal before they went up. I see that the Dome has gone back down. When I bought that Clemson they were actually +1 but I wanted to get a better payout and the -1 was in my best interests. Shocked at the Rutgers line movement. Sometimes you get better lines and other times you don't. I feel like I know why and will discuss later in the thread.

MCM, yes, it is quite chalky at this point. My dogs will come later in the week as I get better value for the ones I have my eye on.

RJ, I agree with your projections on Houston and Clemson. Very similar to what I composed. Also, you are dead on about the Miss St offense perhaps getting shutout.

Sooner, Fresno is a dog I am eyeing. I was very impressed with Oregon but the same can be said for Frezz. Lets see how high it goes.

Chaz...your banned anyway so I feel no need to talk to you. Follow the rules next time. You know what we set out for you. Its easy enough. I will say, why do I care about home/away record at this point from a previous year. I mean seriously.

Yanks, I have been eyeing that one for awhile. Even last week's play by both teams cannot deter me.

Yes Sir, I locked all these in between 7:45 and 8 pm eastern Sunday night when they came out. I got burned on Rutgers but am happy with how the others treated me.
i like notre dame only outa tha bunch. not much of a fav player, but that does stick out to me. nice like on cal, i didnt think this line was gonna take off like it did
Notre Dame Vs Penn State

Well, I think myself and Hunt will be the contrarian's this wek by taking the Irish. I know PSU is going to get a lot of support by I really think the Irish take this by double digits.

A key thing for caoppers is not to overreact to how week one went. Is it a good barometer? Of course. Is this what we can expectr season-long? Absoultely not. I will get into this with another game later in the thread(Cal-Minny).

Specifically, lets take a look at Notre Dame in week one. Most of us got to see the majority of that game. We are going to be more impressionable from that game than most. I was actually quite impressed with Notre Dame in this contest. Why? The defense and the maturity on offense.

Why the defense? They did a helluva job against the Ramblin Wreck. Calvin had 5 for 95 in the first half and was promptly shut down in second half. The man is that great that he was going to get his. Without his prescence in half number 2 the Jackets had no where to go on offense. I was not a huge fan of Notre Dames defense at all. Its not just the bowl game last year. This team after the 1st half of Michigan last year struggled mightily on defense. Weis, in year two, has down a damn good job of making them a solid defense IMO. Will some teams still move on them? Of course. This isn't a great defense but its quite solid.

Why the offense? It wasn't your flashy plays and quick strike drives you expect outta the mighty Quinn. They had 2 extremely impressive 14 play drives for TD's. Huge conversions on 3rd downs and Quinn doing some playmaking. It was just gutsy football against a very good defense. Poeple will point to Notre Dame only scoring 14 but GT is no slouch on defense. I rate them much higher than PSU.

Lets look back at the Zips and Nittany Lions:

First of all, Morelli played solid. He completed 16 of 32(not great) and had about two-hundo with 2 scores. He id fumble away a possesion in 3rd QTR. The thing that should scare Penn St backers is the offensive line. Hunt had less than 40 yards rushing and Joe Pa said in no uncertain terms..

"I think they got their (butts) kicked in today," Paterno said about the offensive line "Simple as that."

I want to show some numbers from the box. Obviously, in a game thats not close these get skewed but I still think they show a bit of relevence.

TOP: 37:29-22:31
FD: 18-13
PASSING: 192-206

Akron's numbers are listed first.


Basically, Penn State with a new hotshot QB did what they had to do in their first game. Anything someone does against the Akron defense does not impress me. I am not a big fan of Akron defense. Even with the conditions I would have expected for PSU to run much better and control the clock more.

Notre Dame showed last week that they have a improved defense and with this tough schedule they have to be up for each game. Weiss will want his squad in top form for the next few weeks. UM at home then a night game in East Lansing. This is no time for a slip-up.

I expect Morelli to have 2 turnovers minimum this game. He will have a rough outing in first road start. Weis will have the ND offense back to its normal over 20 pts a game self and I expect this to be over by early third qtr.

Notre Dame 31-13
Alimony, what kind of a final score are you thinking in the Clemson game? I'm liking these offenses right now, and I think this game may have a bit more scoring than people think... Contemplating an Over 42.5 play, that's why I ask
At this point, I would say that Over looks real good. I see a 28-23 kinda game here. That number is low IMO.
N.D looks good under 10 IMO. Their offense just looked too simple against a slower Akron team. Granted it was in the rain... their line never pushed back the defense... they were successful using their speed deep and around the ends.. never a good sign for a team if they can't win the trenches against a MAC school.

What you think against NIU -14? Ohio can't score 2 TD's in any game.. and I think NIU has the capability to hang 50 on anyone outside the top 25.
Akrons passing defense was 19th in the country last year...

Notre Dames passing defense was 99th in the country last year...

Plus the PSU/Akron game was played in a driving rain storm

Dont sleep on Morelli, this guys the real deal...he might have the second best receiving corp in the country...these guys are scary fast...
Here's my "dig" on Notre Dame and you can take it for what it's worth:

What ND did last year with their season was "good" but not "great." Why would I say that about a team that went 9-3? Look at who they beat:

Pitt went 5-6 for year.
Michigan went 7-5 for year and was ND's only "quality" win.
They got beat by MSU.
They beat Washington who went 2-9 for year.
They beat Purdue who went 5-6 for year.
They got beat by USC, but kept it close at home.
They beat BYU who went 6-6.
They beat Tennessee who went 5-6.
They beat Navy who went 8-4 but was never in ND's league.
They beat Syracuse who went 1-10.
They beat Stanford who went 5-6.
They got beat by a much better Ohio State team in Fiesta Bowl.

What does this show? That ND didn't really beat too many real good teams. It turned out to be an easy schedule. Now, they come in to this season highly touted as National Contenders with a defense that gave up over 24 ppg last year!

They played well against GT and GT has probably the best defensive coordinator in college football. He had a great game plan drawn up against ND offense. He also had the time to get a good game plan drawn up where many schools this season will not. BUT, can anyone on here say they have ever been impressed with GT's offense? Not I.

They will play a Penn State team that showed last week that they will be solid on defense again. Morelli is a Jr and he got his cherry popped last weekend. He looked smooth and unrattled. Will ND's defense put any pressure on him? Not likely. PSU is better than 80% of the competition ND saw last year. I know this is being played at ND, but I have PSU +9.5 and feel very good about having that point spread with a team that stands a good chance of winning SU!

Good luck on your other games, Big Al. I guess this means we will not be having a joint write-up on PSU/ND game, huh?

great write-up, and I am glad you focused on last week and the adjustments made in both games...not LAST YEAR..

LAST YEAR IS LAST YEAR...just a reminder fellas!!

repeat after me, what happened LAST YEAR IS LAST YEAR!


ND is much improved on Defense, and yes PSU has some playmakers but like BAR said...I see Morelli throwing a few picks.,,,he might have gotten his cherry popped at home, but being in ND under touchdown Jesus is a different story.

great write-up BAR.

great write-up, and I am glad you focused on last week and the adjustments made in both games...not LAST YEAR..

LAST YEAR IS LAST YEAR...just a reminder fellas!!

repeat after me, what happened LAST YEAR IS LAST YEAR!


ND is much improved on Defense, and yes PSU has some playmakers but like BAR said...I see Morelli throwing a few picks.,,,he might have gotten his cherry popped at home, but being in ND under touchdown Jesus is a different story.

great write-up BAR.

Will the pope be there for that game?
Rutgers Vs Illinois

Alright, if you look to the top of the thread I have made Rutgers a 2 unit play. One at the origonal number and one that was put in today.

Let's first remember last year. The Knights went into Champiagn and were handing it to the Illini. Rutgers led 27-7 in the 3rd quarter and Rutgers backers had this one pretty much circled. The Illinois comeback and subsequent OT win was crushing for Rutgers. Much credit to RU though, as they came back and won 4 staright after this game. Last year, Rutgers ran the ball great(175) and threw real well(340). There is a reason they were up that big. They just didn't complete the job and Illionois seized the opportunity.

Illinois started this season vs Eastern Illinois. EIU is defeding Ohio Valley Conference champions and were undefeated in the league last yer. Sixteen starters back make them a competitive team again. The whole idea that EIU had about making it a game with Illinois ended when their best player got hurt on the opening kickoff. Last years Defensive Player of the Year in the OVC Clint Sellers went out before he ever got to take the field for a defensive play. This had a lot to do with Illinois running for 300 yards and 6 TD's. Any Big Ten team should get 200-250 against a smaller school like this. Please do not take this as Illinois is going to run all over Rutgers. Will they have sucess? Of course. But its not going to be 6-7 yards a carry all day. This game was actually 21-14 midway thru before Illinois broke away in second half for 42-17 win.

Rutgers was money for us last week as they cashed the dog role and money line at Chapel Hill. Ray Rice was awesome. He had 200 yards rushing. UNC concentrated on do it all back Leohnard and he had only about 50 yards total offense. Thats fine, Rice took it right to UNC. This is a helluva two-headed attack that Rutgers poses. Remember that Teel was starting in front of Hart last year for a time before he got hurt. He has experience. He got the job done at UNC with a solid performance.


In a huge revenge game I expect Rutgers to come out of the gate flying. Also, off the week one road win against an ACC team the crowd/team will be all fired up for the home opener. The two backs will find much success all day long and that only opens up the play-action for any team that can run well. I think that Rutgers gets out early and has the Illini on their feet all day long. From watching the Illini last year they can get the offense going at times but they just cannot keep up with good teams(yes, Rutgers will be in bowl again this year..classify them as good).

Rutgers 35-17
Miss St vs Auburn

First, lets talk about something that will become prevelant in games such as this as the season unfold.s Its that old dirty word..Trap. Yes, if you do not believe in traps, more power to you. I can tell you for 5-6 years of doing this full time during fall that every October and even early November is filled with traps on college football Saturdays. Their will be traps here and there each week but not to the extent as the middle of the season.

What I am trying to surmise from that is how would you back Messy St here? Let me first tell you that Auburn will be in the Fiesta Bowl this year IMO. Messy St may not score more than 20 points all year in a single game. If they get more than one score this game I will be shocked. I actually think they will get shutout. So, all we need is simple football from the Tigers. I think they are right around spread or above at half and tack on another 10 points in half number 2. We saw Messy against the Cocks. Not a pretty offense. Last year, they barely reached 200 yards against Auburn. Does Messy have a solid defense? Yes. That defense though will wear down as they get no support. By end of season you will see that defense getting pounded more and more. Its a fact. That kinda of stuff happens when the defense/offense balance is way off.

Obviously Auburn has LSU coming to town the week after. That is a point in favor of Messy st. I just cannot see Auburn scoring in teens this game or something like that. Messy isn;'t going to score more than 3-7. Either way, I think AU has another 'sharp' performance before the LSU game. The last thing the coaching staff wants is a flat performance before the biggest game of the season.

Auburn 30-2
Thanks for the writeups BAR.

I've got Rutgers capped at -15 on my lines so I'm just in shock that the line is going the other way. I saw a replay of the game before the season started and Rutgers was in control well into the 3Q before collapsing. Definite revenge game.

Auburn score looks about right to me. I have to adjust all my projected scores lower between 10-14 total points. Figure that each team loses 2-5 possessions a game depending on offensive style.
The loss of possession seems about right

rjurewitz said:
Thanks for the writeups BAR.

I've got Rutgers capped at -15 on my lines so I'm just in shock that the line is going the other way. I saw a replay of the game before the season started and Rutgers was in control well into the 3Q before collapsing. Definite revenge game.

Auburn score looks about right to me. I have to adjust all my projected scores lower between 10-14 total points. Figure that each team loses 2-5 possessions a game depending on offensive style.

I was reading through your thread about it and some things did kinda shock me. One that really stuck out was OU had least amount of plays ever I believe. That knaws at me as I still pushed on under. I really think after 3-4 weeks we will be able to get an advantage on the books by tracking what the average plays are for each team. Some teams are still taking whole playclock with new rules. Others have a higher tempo pace. Thats the key this year is uncovereing those things.

I will have a few more write-ups today. Still looking at a few doggies. No plays on the weeknight games.
LSU Vs Arizona

Mini write-up here.

Both teams off a season opening victory.

Arizona had an ugly, mistake/penalty filled game against BYU. Beck passed well against them but mistakes and missed FG opportunity did BYU in. Arizona has a solid defense and may just well be bowl bound this year if they get a few breaks.

LSU spanked ULL. The Rajun Cajuns are the best the belt has to offer. LSU made them look like a division 2 school though. JeMarcus made coach look smart with one of his best performances of his career. He had his first 3 TD game and was quite efficient. The defrense smothered and LSU rivaled Auburn in impressiveness in Week One.

Once again we have a PAC-10 team going into SEC country at night as mid-teens dogs. I see a similar result as last week. LSU is prolly the toughest night venue in the country. The youngster Tuitama hasn't played in this sort of atmosphere before. I expect him to make some mistakes and this powerful Tiger team will pounce. Just like Auburn, LSU will not look ahead. Its critical to have a crisp performnce here before next weeks big game.

LSU rolls..

LSU 34-13
Houston Vs Tulane

This will be kind of choppy but I should make a few points hopefully.

-First of all, I like this Houston team and I did have Rice last week. Always watch your bets with some of these teams. Its 'trap' city and you have to be careful. You need to know when to hit the big favorites, when to lay off and like last week when to take the shit team.

-I have taken a special interest with Tulane Sports the past year or so. One of the best capping tips any of you new guys can have is to find somewhat smaller schools and follow them thouroughly throughout the season/offseason. These lines are not as scrutinized nd you can find gems within. I have been trying to keep up on the Green Wave as much as possible and I have a goal of playing 8 outta the 12 games for them and going 7-1 at worst.

-Lets look at Tulanes upcoming season a bit. Its gonna be one helluva schedule. First of all, it starts with 3 straight road games to open as the Dome isn't quite ready yet. After this game, they go to Messy St and LSU. Should be a real emotional contest against SMU at the dome Sept 30th. They also go to Auburn, UTEP and Tulsa this season. That, and playing 12 staright weeks will take its toll.

-I valued this line around 17 points before the season. I would have it right around there after Saturday of last week. I got a few points of that and am extremelt happy about it. I think that many are off the Houston bandwagon right now and thats why this spread is staying within a few cents of itself at all times. Thats fine. Kolb has always been up and down and i think he is going to be more up than down this game. Tulane does have some offensive talent but other than SMU last year they gave up way to many points in each game. I expect this Houston offense to score basically at will and they will not start breathing easy up 14-0 again. Tulane should make it respectable late but the damage is already done.

Houston 41-21

Let me also add that the TUL staff has been unhappy with the conditioning of the team so far this fall camp. That is never a good sign if they have to 'play their way into shape'
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Boston College vs Clemson

I already liked this game a bit before the season started. I like this Clemson defense. I do not like the BC running attack/defense all that much.

If you refer to Sooner BS plays thread for this week he basically surmises why Clemson is the better pick in this game.

I will say, I had this game at +1 and sold it to -1. At this point as it keeps rising it would have been a helluva middle. Oh well.
California Vs Minnesota

First of all, eat your hearts out fellas at the line I got on this game. It truly can pay oiff hitting refresh for twenty minutes waiting for those Pinny lines to hop out on a Sunday evening.

This is a classic betting situation. Newer cappers will see how Minny dismantled Kunt State and how California got smashed at Leyland by the Creamsicles. They then look at this matchup and wonder why currently Minnesota is catching 8.5 points from the Bears. This means the Bears would be favored in the MetroDome as well. Hmmmm, is it too good to be true? Of course it is. California will roll in this game...

Cal is one of my sleeper teams for a BCS game. I still think they give USC a bit of a scare later this year in that matchup. What hurt Cal last week?A young QB with very little playing time going into a tough SEC stadium. A fired up Vols squad that had to show their fans that their world isn't gone. I mean seriously, that was a perfect emotional situation for Tennessee. Cal, with a lot of hype going their way was in a no-win position.

Minnesota did what most teams should do to Kunt St. Demolish them. Six Golden Flash turnovers were key indeed as Minnesota did what they always do in OOC games. Feed on meek opponents. Now, they go on road to play a real team. Glen Mason musta thought he scheduled Cal Davis or something.

California of an embarrasing loss comes home and plays lights out against the Gophers. Minnesota isn't as good as they looked last week. They will look like those Minny teams do on road in Big Ten play. Weak and somewhat poorly coached. Tedford will have this team ready and I think it gets somewhat ugly in second half.

Cal 33-16
Some quick notes.

Zook plans to keep putting Williams in at QB in pre-determined situations. He also plans on letting a lot of true freshamn play. He is looking at future more than present.

Daniles will prolly start over Pinnix for Minnesota at Cal. He's a big fella and can run over guys. Lets see how he does against a non-MAC team.
GamePlan for UM vs CMU..courtesy of DET news

Keys to the game
U-M vs. Central Michigan
Angelique S. Chengelis / The Detroit News

Get to the quarterback
Much was made of the aggressive play of Michigan's front four last week, and there is no reason to believe the Wolverines won't be consistent attackers on defense. Central Michigan will be a test, with its strong offensive line needing to protect redshirt freshman quarterback Dan LeFevour, who stepped in against Boston College when Brian Brunner went out (concussion). LeFevour is expected to start. He does not have strong arm, but he completed nearly 60 percent of his passes for 221 yards and a touchdown, and he led the team in rushing with 14 carries for 72 yards and two touchdowns vs. Boston College.
Trying to catch on
Michigan will face a very aggressive pass rush from CMU, but Boston College scored three of its four touchdowns against the Chippewas by taking advantage of a so-so secondary. Chad Henne has to have time to get his feet set and find his receivers, and when he finds them, they can't drop passes. Michigan should take advantage off starting redshirt freshman cornerback Josh Gordy, who is 5-11, 193 pounds, and not nearly the threat Pacino Horne, a converted free safety, is at the other corner. Steve Breaston has to have a better performance than he did in the opener, and the same is true for Mario Manningham.
Hold Bauzin at bay
Dan Bazuin, last year's Mid-American Conference player of the year, can give a one-man clinic on how to pass-rush. He led the nation in tackles for loss last year ago with 26.5, including 16 sacks. There is no doubt he will be one of the most sought after players in the draft, and with that in mind, the Wolverines can't allow Bazuin to add to his already inflated statistics. That might be tough considering Michigan has a re-tooled offensive line that showed weakness on the right side vs. Vanderbilt. The line, boasting its zone-blocking scheme, did not protect Chad Henne, who was forced to scramble numerous times.
Ground control
OK, so Mike Hart carried 31 times for 146 yards against Vanderbilt, and Michigan had 246 yards rushing. The running game still seemed flat, although the consensus is that the zone-blocking scheme will benefit the running backs. Kevin Grady, who had five carries, and freshman Brandon Minor, who averaged 10 yards on three carries -- his first was a 24-yard gain -- need to get more chances. CMU's defense does not allow much room to run, as Boston College found out (85 yards). But if Michigan is determined to run the ball, this is a perfect opportunity to prove that.
Sparty On vs EMU(also courtesy of Det News)

MSU vs. Eastern Michigan
Dave Dye / The Detroit News

Time to shine
Matt Trannon needs to start showing more consistency if he wants to impress NFL scouts. He's a senior. He's talented. It's time to put it all together. He caught four passes last week, but he also dropped one in the end zone. The guy behind him in the depth chart, freshman T.J. Williams, is going to push Trannon. Williams has "sky's-the-limit" potential. But if Trannon has trouble hanging onto the ball on a consistent basis, there's a good chance Williams is going to start taking more playing time from him.
O-line development
After an overall lackluster performance against Idaho, the Spartans' offensive line needs to assert itself more against a so-called inferior opponent. The line has three new starters with sophomore Roland Martin at right guard, sophomore Jesse Miller at right tackle and junior Pete Clifford at left guard. The two returning starters have switched positions -- senior Kyle Cook from left guard to center and Mike Gyetvai from right tackle to left tackle. This unit is going to be a work in progress because of these changes. The sooner it develops under assistant Jeff Stoutland, the faster the Spartans can take full advantage of their weapons at the skill positions.
Experience required
The Spartans really need to take control of this game by early in the second half and allow their reserves to get some experience, including quarterback Brian Hoyer. That didn't happen last week against Idaho. The starters had to stay in to the end because the outcome was in doubt until the final minute. With several inexperienced reserves, especially in the secondary, it's important for these backups to get some playing time before an injury possibly forces them into a starting role. This could be the last week to do that because the competition gets stronger beginning with next week's game at Pittsburgh.
Keeping up with Jones
Michigan State's biggest concern defensively is containing the running ability of Eastern Michigan quarterback Tyler Jones, a 6-foot-2, 225-pound sophomore from Belleville. Jones ran for 164 yards on 22 carries in an opening loss at Ball State. He lines up in the shotgun most of the time in an offense that resembles Northwestern's. "If he had his druthers, pitch it or carry it, he's going to carry it," Spartans coach John L. Smith said. "When he's coming on an option, you better take him away. He's got a lot of confidence. He is a good football player -- very athletic, very good feet."
Alright, season record update. Not pretty, but its not as bad as it looks. Never got to post Tennessee on Saturday and Monday I forgot to put up threead with FSU/Under. Lost another unpoisted as well. So in honesty, only about 1.3 in the hole but for posting purposes..

12-17-1 -4.2

Pretty happy with week one though .I can attribute some of the losing with me getting skitish about the new rules. I added more plays and a lot of them lost. That happens. No big problem. Couple of that I gor screwed on a bit but that is to be expected every week.

My intial feelings on Fla, Neb, Pitt felt good capping wise. Utah and ISU offset those a tad bit but thats okay. A lot was learned week one and I think Week 2 and 3 shape up as solid weeks. My goal as always is to have a winning September and with 4 more Sat cards left I forsee that being accomplished.

I will be back later tonight with my dog plays and any other relevent information.