SEC Postseason Thread

Those are the types of games I like to see on the bowl undercard. Just nuts shootouts. Thought we would get one in Bahamas but when game opens with the dreaded 8 minute 3 point drive, that kills an over right quick.

You like anything in next few days?
 
Took Troy 2H TT Over 14 -120 on 5d

Short fields certainly helped but with a missed chip shot FG and another pick on the 1 yard line that's 10 points they left off the board. Ohio still a good candidate for more bad giveaways. Game has plenty of pace and Troy over 6.5 ypp
 
I mentioned it in my blurb about the game but this comes down to do Hawaii's blitzes get home? I don't think they do enough. I really can't think of a worse offense to really try to just attack with blitzes either. They are so dynamic with the skill guys and Stockstill has, IMO, one of the quickest releases of any college QB and the way they get the ball out both quickly and intelligently I think this just spells tons of trouble for the Bows defense. Looks to be a chance of some wind and I'm not totally sure how Stockstill responds from the injury but I'm willing to take the risks on what I feel are some high upside bets. Similar to how much the speed and athleticism of La Tech was too much for Navy - I see that same thing being in play here - however, this team lacks discipline compared to the Middies. I'll say it's 56-31
 
MTSU and the over parlayed hard after seeing that predicted score of yours...
lets get it
 
Not totally sure why I'm still investing in bowls given that I don't think a single game has played out how I expected but giving these a go:

Independence Bowl:

Vanderbilt TT Over 19.5 -110
Long TD Over 40.5 yards -110
 
Independence Bowl Props:

Trent Sherfield Over 3 catches +105
Trent Sherfield Over 41.5 receiving yards +115
 
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State/Colorado (Thursday Dec 29 9:00 San Antonio (Dome) ESPN) Col -7.5/58
This is a really tough matchup for Ok St. They are who they are because of their potent passing attack. This is about the worst defense they could get paired against. The Buffs are a top 5 pass defense in adjusted numbers and also right there in sacking the QB. They are senior laden and are fresh off embarrassing Jake Browning who went 9-24 (37.5%) for 118, although his team got the last laugh as Sefo got hurt and the run game bullied the Buffs. I don't see Ok St having the ability to lean on their ground game the way the Huskies did - although the Ok St rush offense is much better than it has been at times in the Gundy era. The thing is, I have such little respect for any defense they faced this season it's hard to really know how good they are but their adjusted numbers are slightly worse than raw so the data concurs. I could go on with my thoughts on other matchups but for me that's why I made the bet - take away the Pokes ability to throw it all over the field and they are a poor rush offense, poor total defense with a good special teams. ST is the only edge that I give to Ok State in the game. Colorado offense has let the team down in both losses this season - to USC and Washington. Both of those games Sefo got hurt, 25 combined total plays for him in those losses. I think both teams will be sorta bummed they aren't playing in the Rose or Sugar Bowl. However, this is a senior maiden group for the Buffs that I believe have really committed to laying a great foundation at a once proud school. This will be the Buffs first bowl since 2007 (against Alabama) and I think the Pokes will be less enthused as this is their 11th in a row and played (embarrassed) in the Sugar Bowl last year by Ole Miss. My two concerns are 1) Sefo health - he has apparently fully recovered from the ankle tweak but he has been a bit fragile and needs his wheels 2) Author of this great defense, Jim Leavitt, will not coach in bowl game as he took the DC gig for Oregon and decided to move on. Thankfully, there is aplenty of play calling experience on the CU staff and I while I don't think they will take much of a step back, if any, it's still an unknown. Pace should be fast and it's indoors but even so I have an under lean but think the side is the better opportunity as Colorado seems cheap to me. Over 5-2 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. I bet Colorado -3 -105
 
Glad it worked out, bull. I almost didn't add anything on the early games because I was frustrated with past couple days but glad I did.

Prop for late game:

Jeremy McNichols Over 150.5 rushing yards -120

Pretty big number but this is a real bad rush defense. Baylor 110th in adjust rush d and while they don't give up huge npc numbers the teams that have show they are committed to running it against them can put up huge numbers. Last game as a Bronco for JM here, 161 yards shy of Jay Ajayi's single season rushing record. Boise not afraid to let him tote it - had a 40 carry game earlier this year. I guess they/he could put the governor on with him declaring but I'll take a shot.
 
Miami 1H ML -120
WVU/Miami Under 28.5 1H
WVU TT Under 27.5

This is one of my more confident games so gonna get some more chips in the middle.
 
BOL Crimson - There really have been a lot of weird games lately. Very surprised that WST and Boise both struggled so much on offense yesterday. Kicking myself for not playing WF ML, just had a feel there and had to drive yesterday and just had no time. Nice play there.
 
Boise in the red zone was a real treat to watch last night...the way I wagered that you'd have thought I didn't watch the first half at all but alas, I did and still made terrible wagers that I'd probably make again. That was hard to watch, they moved the ball at will then seemed like once they got close, were just hoping for some miracle. I don't get it.
 
Between both the late games yesterday... I just have no idea. I knew Minny would do nothing on offense but to do what they did defensively to the Cougs - has to be one of the most impressive and shocking things I saw all year. I fell asleep for the late game but hard to figure a team I though quit months ago comes out and plays their best game of year. I'm just having a hard time making sense of a lot of it even after the fact. Hope to scratch some back today.

Prop for Pinstripe:

Clayton Thorson Over 276.5 passing yards -115
 
If that prop it doesn't hit and pit finally has a functioning secondary then that truly has to be the sign to me to shut it down for the year because I'm giving away hard-earned money on this nonsense
 
Pitt has played 10 P5 teams this season. 9 that I really looked at for this bet because GT doesn't count. This prop would be 8-1 in Pitt games this year with only duke failing to cross the number in what I believe was a Weather game. Northwestern can't run the ball and pit is so tough to run on anyway that they are going to be forced to just use their pace and throw it all over the field. I also really like Carr to have a big game.
 
Played along with Thorson and Carr props, virtually all of my stuff tie into them anyway.
 
Well KJ we are dogs to win that one at the half as NW followed the script we all figured and decided not to test the #128 secondary and instead went after the #9 rush defense lol

Two Russell Athletic props - going for broke:

Skyler Howard Under 257.5 passing yards -120
Justin Crawford Under 89.5 rushing yards -110
 
Was wondering if you heard Rhule talk during the Baylor game last night. I liked what he had to say. He knows you can't go uptempo all the time and be able to have a solid defense it seems. I think he succeeds down there.
 
dudleysdad said:
Was wondering if you heard Rhule talk during the Baylor game last night. I liked what he had to say. He knows you can't go uptempo all the time and be able to have a solid defense it seems. I think he succeeds down there.
Click to expand...

I did. I agree I really liked what he had to say. He's making good hires around him too it seems like from what our Texas guys on CTG seem to say as well as others opinions I trust. He may not be inheriting as bad a team as we thought either. Depth will be issue but they looked pretty good last night it seems
 
Knight looks good early. Pass that was picked wasn't too bad - better play by defense but that was close to a bomb TD. Arm looks live and game plan looks good.
 
Kansas State 2H TT Over 13 -105

Over 8 ypp in 1H and once Cats get to second level of Age defense it's curtains. Ags should score here too, I think.
 
Papa Johns Bowl:

USF/USCe Under 31.5 1H -115

Wind looks to be a factor as of now in 1H according to forecast I just looked at. I'm in Atlanta and it's howling pretty good right now and looks like from Birmingham all the way to Charlotte early afternoon could see 20+ MPH winds and high teens into evening. Gotta think the wind helps USCe here with as bad as the USF run D is and how they will want to slow down and ugly things up it takes away from one of USF's biggest edges which is being able to get the ball out to playmakers on the edge. Reports of USF players fighting one another in practice this week also - I think the loss of Taggart really hurts these guys and from that report I read it may be bad. Lotta ground game here combined with wind and I took U31.5-115 1H
 
Agree in Taggart leaving.....but as far as them wanting to slow the game down, well, who the fuck knows with what we have seen
 
Crimson thanks and great work on the Canes game...nice to cash about 7 bets in that one.

Had a blast last night at NRG....fun to get one over the Ags in their backyard. 17 starters back for K-State next year should be fun.
 
twinkie13 said:
Agree in Taggart leaving.....but as far as them wanting to slow the game down, well, who the fuck knows with what we have seen
Click to expand...

USF will want to go super fast and they will. I get the sense that USCe will take the MOH approach and slow this way down against a team that loves tempo. I could be wrong, maybe they do Wake/BC and decide to implement the hurry up and if they do then I prob got a loser. Agree it's dicey with the way teams have broken tendencies

aplous said:
Crimson thanks and great work on the Canes game...nice to cash about 7 bets in that one.

Had a blast last night at NRG....fun to get one over the Ags in their backyard. 17 starters back for K-State next year should be fun.
Click to expand...

Glad the Canes worked out and the chips were in the middle. Saved my week.

Congrats on the win. The Ags staff was thoroughly whipped by the Snyders in that game. I had pretty big bet on aTm so that one hurt, managed to take longest TD over 52 to make little back but that one hurt me overall. I suppose my biggest errors in capping that one were that the Ags athletes would be too much for K St when the reality is K St is out athleted 10 weeks a year and secondly I put my faith in Sumlin to have his team prepared. That guy's gone after next year, I'd think.
 
Agree on Sumlin....also amazing to see our Freshman OT dominate Myles Garrett all night. 15 looked like he would have rather started his combine prep than play.
 
Yeah that's a good point I was pretty surprised by that. I really liked that defensive end Willis(75?) you guys had too
 
Maybe, twink. I think the weather and coaching situation really help USC here. They are a young team so you figure they get better with the extra practices and more reps for Bentley and his receivers. The USF offense is incredible and defense is terrible so it's possible especially given the reported infighting. It will take a really inspired defensive effort by them and the past two offenses they faced had great run games and mobile QB and they got torched. Good news is they have lot of time to get that right and a QB in McIlwain that can give them a good look on scout. I just don't know, don't have a great feel on it.
 
CrimsonK said:
USF will want to go super fast and they will. I get the sense that USCe will take the MOH approach and slow this way down against a team that loves tempo. I could be wrong, maybe they do Wake/BC and decide to implement the hurry up and if they do then I prob got a loser. Agree it's dicey with the way teams have broken tendencies



Glad the Canes worked out and the chips were in the middle. Saved my week.

Congrats on the win. The Ags staff was thoroughly whipped by the Snyders in that game. I had pretty big bet on aTm so that one hurt, managed to take longest TD over 52 to make little back but that one hurt me overall. I suppose my biggest errors in capping that one were that the Ags athletes would be too much for K St when the reality is K St is out athleted 10 weeks a year and secondly I put my faith in Sumlin to have his team prepared. That guy's gone after next year, I'd think.
Click to expand...
yep

just say it out loud....I am gonna take Sumlin to beat Snyder in a bowl game......and it gets easier.

I am in a betting syndiacte for bowls and I HATED that pick........we have seen the grey ghost do it too many times.

Sumlin should be gone...do TAMU guys even want him?
 
I thought that the Sumlin hot seat talk was premature this year too. Next year will be the year that gets him.
 
Bham Bowl Props

Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 receiving yards -120
Deebo Samuel Over 4 catches -115

Like both quite a bit
 
Had at least 4 in past 7 games. Gone over this number in 5/7 and this is worst defense we will see. Obviously, the wind is a concern but he should be the recipient of a Tayvon Austin pop pass or two and if he finds a crease he gone. Hoping he waits till 2h to really eat. Slot type guy that does it all so should get some quick hit looks
 
Like that a lot too CK, Rochlone did the Dowdle prop which I also like. Debo should get his catches and hopefully the yards to match. BOL!
 
Concern with Dowdle prop is the rotation - several guys could eat up some touches. I think Carolina trails too so better chance they need to throw it a bit more
 
Saw this today:

Chevin Calloway ‏@_chev1_ 8h8 hours ago

What is being reported is not what I meant. Coach Freeze wouldn't make that comparison at all @CoachHughFreeze

The NCAA isn't investigating because of his faith, and I don't think he was suggesting that or at least I hope he wasn't. I do, however, think that some of the coverage of the investigation has taken on a particularly venomous tone in part because he's so public with his faith.
 
Welcome Tim. He went off was fun to see he has been hampered most of year with a hammy he got well and they got a QB and BANG

Oklahoma State TT Under 31 -120
 
Ok St 2H TT Over 13.5 -120

Surprised 5d didn't go with 14 or 14+. Colorado essentially down 2 of their better defenders in the secondary, can't pressure passer and Washington is making a laughingstock of the Buffs as a whole. In a perfect world they score 14 and lose 35-31. Colorado could do nothing on offense and I would have a strong lean to Ok St +3.5 in 2H also. Colorado looks disinterested and is a mess with injury having Montez under center
 
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