SEC Postseason Thread

gps_3 said:
I feel like I'm too much of a homer to give good analysis on Alabama. Low scoring is my initial impression, but we've seen all year where games are low scoring and the the floodgates open in the 2nd half and Alabama wins going away. The nervous fan in me could envision a scenario where UW hits a few big plays, forces Hurts into some mistakes, and its tight in the 4th quarter and comes down to field goals which is not a good scenario for us. I would definitely not be laying the points here. Though I really like our defense to limit anyone we play. A lot is being said about Peterson getting a month to prepare, but so do we, and rarely have been unprepared for a big game. Early guess is 35-20, but could talk myself into 24-23 or 44-6
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yea

this angle I don't get.....really like Peterson, but what is across the field kinda nullifies that.

I asked CK but you too......1st game we saw UW go against athletes was USC......what is coming is better than that on D.

will wait til day of and see what line does
 
Do both teams play uptempo? I see the total at 87 now, just wondering why they made it THAT high. Is a qb banged up also? Will be making a bet on it strictly to watch.
 
dudleysdad said:
Do both teams play uptempo? I see the total at 87 now, just wondering why they made it THAT high. Is a qb banged up also? Will be making a bet on it strictly to watch.
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FCS doesnt have tempo metrics that I'm aware of so I have to calculate my own based on their stats. James Madison runs about the speed of FSU or Michigan, so they are not a tempo team. SHSU moves more quickly and the clock stops a lot cause they throw it a lot - they are more the speed of Miss St or Louisville. Both offenses are just super explosive so that's why they made the total so high, I guess. This is the second highest total I've ever seen at any level and I just don't think it's justified from a pace standpoint. Yes, SHSU has an amazing QB and he got hurt the last series of the SHSU/UTC game last week, he tried to go back in game but his arm was dead and dangling. From reading their fan sites it looks like he has been practicing and they are optimistic but I don't know, it didn't look good and he wasn't taking any live licks with a windchill in the teens like he will tonight. I wouldnt be super surprised if these teams score 100, the offenses are awesome, I just think there are enough factors pointing towards it being more reasonable and i value pace a lot when making totals
 
CrimsonK said:
FCS doesnt have tempo metrics that I'm aware of so I have to calculate my own based on their stats. James Madison runs about the speed of FSU or Michigan, so they are not a tempo team. SHSU moves more quickly and the clock stops a lot cause they throw it a lot - they are more the speed of Miss St or Louisville. Both offenses are just super explosive so that's why they made the total so high, I guess. This is the second highest total I've ever seen at any level and I just don't think it's justified from a pace standpoint. Yes, SHSU has an amazing QB and he got hurt the last series of the SHSU/UTC game last week, he tried to go back in game but his arm was dead and dangling. From reading their fan sites it looks like he has been practicing and they are optimistic but I don't know, it didn't look good and he wasn't taking any live licks with a windchill in the teens like he will tonight. I wouldnt be super surprised if these teams score 100, the offenses are awesome, I just think there are enough factors pointing towards it being more reasonable and i value pace a lot when making totals
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Thanks man.
strange to see a total that high when one of the teams isn't uptempo
 
can't see mayfield and dede doin their regular work vs aub. especially because i don't see the running game working against this auburn d line.

if that defense is motivated, they are nasty. best the sooners will have seen.
 
dudleysdad said:
Thanks man.
strange to see a total that high when one of the teams isn't uptempo
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No prob. Last season they were real uptempo but they brought in Citadel's old coach who ran the triple option - they don't run that anymore. Last season they ran 79.1 ppg (7th most), were 116th of 123 in time of possession - 26:16 for an avg snap of every 19.9 seconds which would make them about top 10 fastest if you translated that into FBS this year. This year they run 75 ppg but are 20th of 122 in time of possession - 31:52 for an avg snap every 25.5 seconds - would be top 25 slowest in FBS and considerably slower than last season. The announcers will prob just say both teams are super uptempo because most announcers don't know much about tempo but that's the math..
 
Elbutre88 said:
can't see mayfield and dede doin their regular work vs aub. especially because i don't see the running game working against this auburn d line.

if that defense is motivated, they are nasty. best the sooners will have seen.
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I've soured more on that play than any other. That is one that I think I did well enough on the line getting it under 3 where I may have a chance for a nice middle should I want to. I could get 4 now and be in good shape but I'm going to monitor the Aub offensive health - without White really being 100% I still really thinkit's a good bet but my gut has been telling me to beware
 
I don't exactly have a love affair with Aub so perhaps we aren't either best qualified to opine on that one haha
 
CrimsonK said:
FCS doesnt have tempo metrics that I'm aware of so I have to calculate my own based on their stats. James Madison runs about the speed of FSU or Michigan, so they are not a tempo team. SHSU moves more quickly and the clock stops a lot cause they throw it a lot - they are more the speed of Miss St or Louisville. Both offenses are just super explosive so that's why they made the total so high, I guess. This is the second highest total I've ever seen at any level and I just don't think it's justified from a pace standpoint. Yes, SHSU has an amazing QB and he got hurt the last series of the SHSU/UTC game last week, he tried to go back in game but his arm was dead and dangling. From reading their fan sites it looks like he has been practicing and they are optimistic but I don't know, it didn't look good and he wasn't taking any live licks with a windchill in the teens like he will tonight. I wouldnt be super surprised if these teams score 100, the offenses are awesome, I just think there are enough factors pointing towards it being more reasonable and i value pace a lot when making totals
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Line went from James Madison -2.5 to -7. Could be indicative of the condition of SHS's QB.
 
CrimsonK said:
FCS doesnt have tempo metrics that I'm aware of so I have to calculate my own based on their stats. James Madison runs about the speed of FSU or Michigan, so they are not a tempo team. SHSU moves more quickly and the clock stops a lot cause they throw it a lot - they are more the speed of Miss St or Louisville. Both offenses are just super explosive so that's why they made the total so high, I guess. This is the second highest total I've ever seen at any level and I just don't think it's justified from a pace standpoint. Yes, SHSU has an amazing QB and he got hurt the last series of the SHSU/UTC game last week, he tried to go back in game but his arm was dead and dangling. From reading their fan sites it looks like he has been practicing and they are optimistic but I don't know, it didn't look good and he wasn't taking any live licks with a windchill in the teens like he will tonight. I wouldnt be super surprised if these teams score 100, the offenses are awesome, I just think there are enough factors pointing towards it being more reasonable and i value pace a lot when making totals
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Jesus
CK gives more of answer than my wife lol
 
Few brief thoughts on the FCS games today:

North Dakota State -6.5
I really hadn't handicapped this game too much when I bet it - it's just kind of one of those things where you see a short line next to certain teams you just lay it. That's the case for NDSU here for me. They are 17-0 all time at home in FCS playoffs and are pretty much the Alabama of FCS in the midst of a crazy dynasty run. These two teams met earlier this year and SDSU beat them - the really big boyed them too with a 523-304 yardage edge and they really won the ground game - NDSU rushed for a season low and allowed a season high both are where this team is really good. I expect a lot better effort on both sides from the Bison here and while I like the SDSU offense a lot, I don't think they are going to have near that amount of success as NDSU has shown time and time again in these elimination games that there is no one better. Better defense at home with a short number. Also, if you don't know either team - SDSU is the team that took TCU to the wire early this year and NDSU is the team that beat Iowa shortly thereafter.

Wofford +7
Wofford runs the triple option and plays outstanding defense. As I mentioned above, that is the recipe for winning in the FCS playoffs (see James Madison last night). The Pelini brothers are the coaches for Youngstown and they are a really nice team they crushed a good jacksonville State team on the road last weekend. This is a pretty straightforward explanation from me - I can't think of a time when the Pelinis have seen the triple option in their coaching career and now they have to see it for the first time this season - that's just tough. Reading up on YSU team sites and the DL is decimated by injury for YSU right now - no bueno to have inexperienced players at the point of attack trying to make stops. I really like the YSU defense but seeing option is the great equalizer. YSU offense has kinda been a hindrance to them for quite a while but the light has come on later this year - Wofford has an extremely talented and disciplined defense that I think matches up well here. Some questions about who will start at QB for Wofford with the potential for the long time starter to return from early season injury but if he can't go it looks like it will be Newman who is young but played very well last week. I like Wofford to win outright here and I think they have one more game in em after this.

Richmond/EWU Under 65.5
When I originally made this play I thought it was a near certainty the weather was going to be worse. Looks like now it's going to take place in a 4 hour window between snow fall. That being said, going to mid 20's with slight wind. Richmond offense was really shut down last week and they were super lucky to come back and beat a North Dakota team (in a dome) when they were well on their way to getting blown out. A roughing the punter, broken play long pass, blocked punt and premature prevent offense allowed the Spiders to come back from being down 24-7 at end in of 3Q and win 27-24. This is still a freshman under center for them and while he came of age in that 4Q, this is a tall ask for him and their team after having played in North Dakota last Saturday, flying back to VA and now here again out to Cheney, Washington. Richmond has one of top rated pass defenses in FCS and that is where EWU is so good on offense. The EWU defense is statistically poor but have played much better football even shutting out in the 2H one of the FCS better offense last week in Central Arkansas. EWU plays with tempo while Richmond would be the slowest tempo team in FBS - I will take that on a mid 60's total where the underdog rates to really defend well what makes the favorite so good. I really wish the weather was going to be worse but I still think this play has an edge - really regretting not taking EWU -7 yesterday, I was staring at it for few minutes but it moved to -7.5 so I waited some more and it went for a ride up to 14.5 so the 7 was long gone. I like EWU to win this.
 
Ya it's super volatile. I check the lines really regularly throughout the week and they jump around minute by minute. If it got up to 17 or 17' I would prob play SDSU I think it's prob a 31-17 type game. I wouldn't lay that with EWU either. I think at those prices I would only play Wofford. You saw the Terriers up close and personal in Oxford!
 
Bad read on Wofford, I think. Option not doing anything and ST set up their only scores. Took Youngstown State -3 -120 2H
 
Great job with FCS. I regret I didn't catch up to your posts earlier. Won on JMU and Youngs (-3 1/2) and had SDSU at 10 and couldn't pass up Richmond getting 2+ scores. Those lines really bounced around as it got close to kickoffs.
 
Add: Wazzu/Minnesota Over 60 (slightly smaller than my Under 60 - limiting exposure with this bet given Minny suspensions)

Will still stand to gain a bit with it staying under 60 but given the Minny suspensions I'm less enthused about the total and extra enthused about my Wazzu ticket. I had them to win SU as my 34 point confident bet in my pool before news and may increase that a bit more now
 
D2 Championship

North Alabama +22.5

Just got the 411 on the injuries the Bearcats suffered last game. This is a huge number in the snow given their losses and having a starting QB that may not play.
 
Canes1 said:
CK would you still play the HOU under at my current number of 51.5?
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I think so - sounds like 51.5 is the one number you have there are 52 at -110's out there so it's kinda hard to say whether or not it's wise to wait. Under 59.5 was my biggest total bet of bowl season and clearly, IMO, the worst total they made. I believe if it opened at 51.5 I would have just made a standard bet on it so to answer your question - yes, I believe I would. I would be very, very surprised if SDSU gets to 20. Between them, UNC against Stanford and Navy against La Tech those are prob the three worst matchups of any teams that I can see this bowl season. The first two (SDSU and UNC) shouldn't score much at all and Navy prob will but they are just going to get a nasty number hung on them.

EDIT** I would prob also add Minny against Wazzu in worst matchups category
 
Another thing to keep an eye on there is wind - forecasts show it should be really windy tomorrow but gone by gametime. I honestly hope it's not too windy because that hurts the Houston side bet and I want to win both
 
Going to be cold (for the desert) and two warm weather teams. If the forecast is even off by an hour it could be gusty too. Think it's one of those get in, get out, see ya next season type games where the clock seems like it's running non-stop. Favors under and dog to me.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Going to be cold (for the desert) and two warm weather teams. If the forecast is even off by an hour it could be gusty too. Think it's one of those get in, get out, see ya next season type games where the clock seems like it's running non-stop. Favors under and dog to me.
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Ya I think under is really good bet no matter the condition and no matter the motivation level of either team, really. If Houston cares then I think they win by DD pretty easily but I'd be lying if I said I really had a good feel for how they come out.
 
CrimsonK said:
D2 Championship

North Alabama +22.5

Just got the 411 on the injuries the Bearcats suffered last game. This is a huge number in the snow given their losses and having a starting QB that may not play.
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Finally released the ML awhile ago and it was +1060. While I was twiddling my thumbs it went to +20/+750. Damnit.
 
captjohn67 said:
Finally released the ML awhile ago and it was +1060. While I was twiddling my thumbs it went to +20/+750. Damnit.
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Bummer you missed the big ML but at 750 I think it's still worth a few bucks. My dad is up there now and one of his buddies he used to play with is still plugged in with the program I'll let you know when/if I get any injury updates before it's more widely available info.
 
CrimsonK said:
Bummer you missed the big ML but at 750 I think it's still worth a few bucks. My dad is up there now and one of his buddies he used to play with is still plugged in with the program I'll let you know when/if I get any injury updates before it's more widely available info.
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Appreciate you Crimson, look forward to what you hear.
 
mr. CK, In your confidence pool, I'm guessing that Appy/Toledo, Maryland/BC, Georgia/LSU, and Okla St/Colorado are among your bottom three ??

thanks, bull
 
bull said:
mr. CK, In your confidence pool, I'm guessing that Appy/Toledo, Maryland/BC, Georgia/LSU, and Okla St/Colorado are among your bottom three ??

thanks, bull
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From least to most:

Southern Miss
Toledo
UCF
NW
Wyoming
BC
UGA
FSU
Florida
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Winner of Washington/Bama
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Colorado
Memphis
USC
Tenn
Troy
ODU
Clemson
Army
LSU
MTSU
Utah
VT
aTm
Houston
Wisconsin
Stanford
La Tech
Temple
AFA
USF
Boise
Miami
Grambling
Colorado State
Miss St
Wazzu
Tulsa
Alabama
 
Didn't spend tons of time on it, bull. And TBH, the people who do well prob have some contrarian angles and a bona fide system i didn't really go that route.
 
bull said:
mr. CK, In your confidence pool, I'm guessing that Appy/Toledo, Maryland/BC, Georgia/LSU, and Okla St/Colorado are among your bottom three ??

thanks, bull
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Colorado I think is prob less of a toss up if Sefo is healthy. Colorado's secondary is outstanding and I think Ok St will find it hard to move it on a secondary this good and unlike Washington - they won't be able to line up and just pound them like the Huskies were able to once they realized Browning was having a real hard time throwing it successfully. I'm going to look to fade the Ok St offense in that game - perhaps a TT under but I will prob look to the prop market first and see if I can short the passing game.
 
Just bet the improbable. Tennessee -3 -115

Have one prop I will add Saturday for sure - perhaps a TT and another prop if number comes where I suspect it will
 
Smart business decision. Especially because he was unlikely to post a big number against the Ville defense. That's all he wouldn't need is to get goosed against two of the three good rush D he faced. Ville suspends OC for #wakeyleaks
 
Interesting re confidence pool.
My choices differ in numbers 4 , 5, 6 7 8 10 and undecided on 15 - the Colorado game.
 
I don't fault you at all for the differing choices there, Bull.

Here is the main prop I wanted for the Camelia Bowl:

(App State v. Toledo) Highest Scoring Half - 2nd Half + OT -110

I have never bet it exactly like this. I think I would have just considered a 2H over play but I'm not going to be able to watch a whole lot on Saturday and may not be available to bet that route. My gut tells me this ends up being the better option - from a mathematical standpoint this is about as strong a play as I have found for the entire bowl slate.

Will post brief thoughts here shortly:

Toledo avg 1H score 14-9 (23 per game - 279 total) Toledo avg 2H score 25-16 (41 per game - 490 total)
App St avg 1H score 16-8 (24 per game - 296 total) App St avg 2H score 13-9 (22 per game - 257 total)

Avg combined 1H points 23.5 - Avg combined 2H points 31.5

Toledo is S&P+ #1 3Q offense, #4 4Q. Defensively #90 3Q D, #123 4Q D. There is no cumulative higher scoring 2H team than Toledo. Plus, we have OT built in as extra incentive in a game that is a PICK.
 
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bull said:
I had Appy -1 and under 60.5. Very very very lucky.
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Glad you won, bull :cheers3:

FCS Championship

JMU -2.5
JMU/Youngstown State Under 64.5

I think -6.5 and 55 are the more appropriate numbers. I've bet against Youngstown to my own detriment a couple times this post season but this is considerably short on the Dukes who I believe are clearly the class of FCS right now.
 
I think you are right about JMU being the top of the class
they had multiple big plays called back vs. Nd state. Refs favored the home team a ton there.
 
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