SEC Postseason Thread

CrimsonK said:
Glad you won, bull :cheers3:

FCS Championship

JMU -2.5
JMU/Youngstown State Under 64.5

I think -6.5 and 55 are the more appropriate numbers. I've bet against Youngstown to my own detriment a couple times this post season but this is considerably short on the Dukes who I believe are clearly the class of FCS right now.
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Bet your Dad enjoyed game, that defensive line was unbelievable. I also think it would have been more of an ass whipping on a clean field. Sad to see FCS coming to and end. GL Crimson
 
dudleysdad said:
I think you are right about JMU being the top of the class
they had multiple big plays called back vs. Nd state. Refs favored the home team a ton there.
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Ya -NDSU tends to get a lot of calls, at least that was what I saw this post season. Game could have been worse had a few not been called back - everytime Abdullah got into space it looked like the Bison defense was running with ankle weights. JMU is super explosive in the return game too but didn't get a chance to showcase that against NDSU because their punter/punt team are otherworldly.
 
captjohn67 said:
Bet your Dad enjoyed game, that defensive line was unbelievable. I also think it would have been more of an ass whipping on a clean field. Sad to see FCS coming to and end. GL Crimson
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I haven't talked to him yet - still ticked I lost so I'm taking it out on him :tiphat:

I do agree that on a clean field NWM class would have probably shown more but given the elements it's a tragedy to have lost on UNA. I stopped watching but loks like the Bearcats punched the dagger in with less than a minute to go - I didn't see the chain of events that led to it but the play before the TD NW threw it which seems like a pretty classless move there given they were up 20 with less than 2 min to go. Up to the defense to stop them but this reminded me of Harbaugh at Stanford against SJSU some 8 years ago and I'm still not over that ATS loss
 
Tulsa TT Over 39.5 -115

Got this on 5d, got the hook for 5c but prob not great buy long term. Mild concern I'm walking into bear trap with the entirety of the online betting community but I just can't make a case other than just being straight contrarian that Tulsa doesn't score on at least half their possessions.. Athletically just an incredible mismatch for a really bad chips team
 
CrimsonK said:
Tulsa TT Over 39.5 -115

Got this on 5d, got the hook for 5c but prob not great buy long term. Mild concern I'm walking into bear trap with the entirety of the online betting community but I just can't make a case other than just being straight contrarian that Tulsa doesn't score on at least half their possessions.. Athletically just an incredible mismatch for a really bad chips team
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Do you think this is the best way to play the game?
dont lay the 13 or play the game over?
 
I think so. I don't trust the Tulsa defense to lay two scores against a team that is gonna throw it around a ton. I have over and Tulsa TT over I think both will contribute to get both TT over and I think Tulsa is a candidate to hit 50+. My concerns are that CMU are really slow moving and anytime I play a total this high I really have to be confident in the offensive match ups because even with as fast as Tulsa goes, CMU could really slow it down and Frank Solich the game and my second concern is the market doesn't like the over so there is real money on under and every tom dick and Harry in cyber space on over. I don't hold the market in as high a regard during bowl season as I do in regular season but if I don't beat the closing line I rarely feel like I've made a good bet.
 
I I think the first quarter will be very telling in this game if Tulsa jumps out early then I think it could soar over the total but if they aren't sharp and scoring touchdowns then both could be in danger. I don't have a ton of experience doing a live betting but this is one where I'll be able to watch the game and I'll consider it throughout
 
LSU locks up DB coach Corey Raymond to a new deal...
Rumors are that new OC Canada is highest paid in the game...nor verified that I can see.

Seems LSU is breaking the bank on staff after getting the K Mart HC..
 
Prop I played for tonight - Memphis first team to score 40/neither team scores 40 +200 (smaller)

Not sure the impact of losing Brohm will have on the WKU team but i find it hard to believe they have a seamless transition here. I think the Memphis offense, particularly the passing game, is going to give WKU all they can handle and they are equally as likely to get 40 as WKU. I still believe Memphis should be the slight favorite so I think this multi-legged out has some value in a game where it's entirely possible neither team gets there.
 
After the Houston game I am a little scared of playing teams with coaching change. Applewhite looked lost.
 
Yeah I think being cautious surrounding some of these coaching moves is wise. I'm not afraid to fade but I will probably avoid to a certain degree even if I like the matchup for the team that has lost a coach. A good example for me would be your game. If tag were still there I would almost certainly have bet them to route your guys but I'm not willing to do much more guessing then we already have to when betting Bowls. The drop off in offense tonight shouldn't be near as pronounced as it was with Houston but I think that's almost certainly a byproduct of the Memphis defense being really bad and the Aztec defense bein really good
 
Another prop for tonight:

Riley Ferguson Over 300.5 passing yards +100

Riley Ferguson Over 24.5 completions -120

Short on time - the competitive games they've played in he goes over this number. Similar to their last game against Houston, you can't run on WKU so I don't really even see them messing around too much with the ground game. He should throw it 50 times this game. La Tech and MTSU are the comps to look at against WKU - la Tech has thrown for 500+ twice against WKU and while I'm not ready to predict that - I think he throws for closer to 400 than 300 with 30ish completions - they throw the heck out of the tunnel screens instead of running - should be even more this game given how dominant WKU is stopping run
 
Apparently, James Madison has suspended seven players for the championship game. One was the team's leading tackler & another was the number two receiver, but both were also suspended for the win over ND St. No word on the other five players yet as far as i can see. Looks like the line dropped from 5 to 3.5 at 5dimes.
 
Thanks for that info dg- I'll dig in more I don't know those teams personnel well enough to have much idea what impact it will have. I do know one of the reasons I jumped on Eastern Washington last week was because of the apparent Youngstown suspensions but hard to say if that had much impact. I appreciate the info!

For tonight:

Wyoming TT Over 21 -135

I will also have at least one more prop if the number opens close to where I expect and potential he a second but need to do a little bit more work on that one. As far as the team total goes I had the option to pay extra to get that number but I also would play it at 23 with small tariff if that were my only out. I believe it's a really safe bet the Cowboys get into the low 20s and it's a very high upside bet where they could conceivably get close to double that if this game takes on the trajectory I feel it may.
 
Hey crimson,
nice call on over Memphis qb props.
i only took the yardage over 300.5, by the time I got to it it was -165, threw it in a parlay that was good, just needing the prop to close it.
Did u see th qb get hurt when he had around 270 yards lol. When I saw the way he was limping off I was certain he was okay but u never know... if wku popped another TD maybe the coach for Memphis keeps him out with the game outta hand.
basically turned into a sweat to see if he would return.
 
Thanks man glad it worked out - yeah I had already marked it in my thread as losses when he got hurt I was pretty pissed and resigned to the fact that I made two good bets that were gonna lose. The frustrating thing was to even if he would've sat out the fourth quarter injured it should have already cashed if not for all of the drops made by their receivers they were pretty poor all night. The Memphis spread bet was a really bad read on my part and I'm kind of frustrated I didn't bet the game over at 77 but I suppose being cautious with the coaching change wasn't a bad strategy even though I don't think it impacted this particular game. I would pay a lot of money to see Jim Harbaugh and WKUs interim coach Nick Holt in a ladder cage wrestling match - some intense dudes
 
I want to play Wyoming on the ML tonight, just not sure I will convince myself to hit submit.
 
Also I was annoyed at the play call near midfield early in the second half, Memphis had a 4th n 2. Coach called a straight pass, slant route. No idea why u don't have some play action where qb can use his legs or throw on a short yardage like that. Needed points on that drive to have a shot at covering.
 
Someone posted the data somewhere with a pretty good sample size of bowl games over the years and I really am still so shocked how little the spread actually comes into play. Seems to me the evidence is there if you like a dog just play them on the Moneyline And if you think a favorite is gonna win just lay the points. That's a pretty big contrast to how I usually handicap but perhaps I need to make adjustments if I want to be a better bowl bettor. I really think this BYU team is trash but I'm also not super high on Wyoming I was really hoping for a different match up to fade BYU. I know the underdog isn't necessarily correlated to an over Beth I know the underdog isn't necessarily correlated to an over Bet but I get the sense that if Wyoming is going to win this it's going to be in a shootout. I don't necessarily like the BYU offense a ton but the Wyoming defense is just so bad I have a hard time making a case for them really shitting them down. The total is bouncing around some key numbers and if the under takes much more money I'm going to have a hard time laying off the game total over as well. I agree with you that Wyoming on the money line is worth at least a small bet at nearly 350
 
I didn't like Memphis decision to punt at the end of the first half and that was really the main thing they did on offense that bothered me but they ended up getting away with it after the interception in the end zone following that crazy trick play. When he decided to punt I felt it was pretty clear that his defense had really no shot of stopping them for the rest of the game and it's a bowl game so I just would've preferred him to roll the dice. He could've been afraid of getting blown out but that happened anyway. I will say this - Memphis as a program doesn't always recruit what I would consider high character guys and there were moments where I thought we could be headed to another bowl brawl like they had with BYU a couple years back. I'm thinking the Memphis players didn't incite the riot because they feared Nick Holt ripping his shirt off and charging
 
Also I'm not sure where that interim offensive Coordinator will end up or Nik Holt but I think if I was a head coach looking to make a change either on offense or defense I would give both of those guys a real look. I was particularly impressed with the offensive coordinator considering that was his first game ever calling plays he was outstanding
 
Prop for tonight - Nick Kurtz Over 3.5 receptions -120

Kurtz is BYU's leading receiver both in targets and yardage. He averages 7 targets a game and 4 catches. Few intangibles that pushed me over edge on this one - he is a San Diego native - he used to be an employee at Qualcomm Stadium - he worked a Poinsettia bowl years back and that's where he learned about BYU and ultimately decided to play ball there. Senior playing in his final game with motivation. I do think the BYU passing game likely takes step up today with Mangum under center - he showed last year in his starts he likes to look for a big receiver and let them go up and make plays - Kurtz is 6'6 and he played with Mangum last year and while Mangum no longer has 6'6 safety blanket Mitch Matthews, he now has Kurtz. 3 of BYU top 5 WR are 6'0 or shorter with only one other big fella, Laulau-Pututau, who is very sporadically targeted. Kurtz has had 4+ catches in 6/11 games this year and 6/13 last year and was only 3rd highest targeted compared to 1st this year.
 
they should be way better throwing it. obv, they take a hit in the run around and get 7 yards plays tho. i think for what they do, they're better off with Mangum.
 
CrimsonK said:
Prop for tonight - Nick Kurtz Over 3.5 receptions -120

Kurtz is BYU's leading receiver both in targets and yardage. He averages 7 targets a game and 4 catches. Few intangibles that pushed me over edge on this one - he is a San Diego native - he used to be an employee at Qualcomm Stadium - he worked a Poinsettia bowl years back and that's where he learned about BYU and ultimately decided to play ball there. Senior playing in his final game with motivation. I do think the BYU passing game likely takes step up today with Mangum under center - he showed last year in his starts he likes to look for a big receiver and let them go up and make plays - Kurtz is 6'6 and he played with Mangum last year and while Mangum no longer has 6'6 safety blanket Mitch Matthews, he now has Kurtz. 3 of BYU top 5 WR are 6'0 or shorter with only one other big fella, Laulau-Pututau, who is very sporadically targeted. Kurtz has had 4+ catches in 6/11 games this year and 6/13 last year and was only 3rd highest targeted compared to 1st this year.
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Wow now that some info!
gl
 
Was never able to find the prop I wanted most which was a Josh Allen pass yard prop - I figured it would be 230ish and wanted to go over
 
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nTv0BIcQ4Mc

i was 10 or 11. I remember watching this game. Loved Barry sanders.. fast forward to 4:50 mark, sanders completes a pass lol

sanders cousin or close friend was a RB for wyoming

ohh and I looked this up just cuz I thought the uniforms were the same for wyoming.. yeah they pretty much are haha
 
dudleysdad said:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nTv0BIcQ4Mc

i was 10 or 11. I remember watching this game. Loved Barry sanders.. fast forward to 4:50 mark, sanders completes a pass lol

sanders cousin or close friend was a RB for wyoming

ohh and I looked this up just cuz I thought the uniforms were the same for wyoming.. yeah they pretty much are haha
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Man, Wyoming serious ranking back then.
I can't say I recall that game, though.
The padding so different then too
 
Popeyes add - Eastern Michigan/ODU Over 63.5 -105

Hawaii bowl - MTSU/Hawaii Over 70

I believe once QB Brent Stockstill is announced on Saturday he will start this number will take off. I made the total closer to 80
 
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii/MTSU (Saturday Dec 24 8:00 Honolulu ESPN) MTSU -8.5/77.5
99% sure Stockstill back at QB for Raiders. I know he wanted to play in season finale after his backup was TKO but his dad, the HC, kept him out and decided to wildcat FAU to death for a school record 77 points and 757 yards. Stockstill once played a HS championship game on one leg and he has had plenty of time for the collarbone to heal. MTSU has fantastic skill guys and Hawaii is really in trouble when they are going to try to bottle them up. Mathers and Richie James are going to go nuts. I just don't see any way Hawaii can match up - they have one good LB and a bunch of junk around him. In reading through the comments of Stockstill and the MTSU players they all seem extremely optimistic with as much blitzing as Hawaii does they are going to be able to exploit that. If MTSU wants to just wildcat the Bows into oblivion I think they can the Hawaii rush defense is one of nation's worst or if they want to go with a traditional QB and use their pace and quick hitters they are going to have success that way also. The good news for the Bows, they are at home here and the MTSU defense is absolutely turrible. Hawaii is going to do pretty much whatever they want with the inside zone they run and RPO off of that. I've been reading a lot from both teams bowl prep and this game looks like both teams are just going to have fun. Some coaches get conservative and we've seen that thus far but many coaches let their hair down and my opinion is this is a game that will just be really fun and wide open. MTSU pace is one of fastest in country and while Hawaii is slightly below average paced I think they play up to the Raider speed. This game has been low scoring past few but this one looks like it could set up for a Tulsa/Hawaii game of old on the island. Strong lean to MTSU but prob even moreso the over as this one has the potential to be totaled very reasonably. I'm cautiously optimistic the over here could represent the best total opportunity of the bowls... Under 6-1 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7 I bet Over 70
 
Well - I was gonna try to monitor and see where it went but looks like it already made the move to 5 on BM. I'll lock in now - MTSU -4.5
 
Thanks, Frank. Rams lost two guys in secondary in 1h and this field just so hard to play defense in with the footing. This is really fun to see for Idaho, I've liked their program for years you can tell how much this means to them
 
Would like to see colo state score n get me the game over.
No idea why the colo st coach didn't use his timeouts to get ball back in 1st half.
maybe he knew they would get blasted.
 
I haven't watched them a ton this year - I know Bobo well from all his years at Georgia but it has just appeared they haven't really cared at all. I'm very surprised how little their offense has been able to do so far - that final month of the year they were a wrecking ball. I still think you'll get a few more TD
 
nice hit dudley :cheers3:

I didn't realize that either, Frank. Do you know why they are moving down to FCS in 2018?
 
Just read this article - makes it sound like Navy has done next to nothing to prep for this game:

Playing in the AAC title game gave his team less rest and prep than normal for the Army game, but there isn’t much time for bowl prep. And with 13 bowls in 14 years, it’s part of the job at Navy. While Navy prepared for the Army game, LA Tech was preparing for Navy in the bowl.
“It’s not ideal, but it is what it is. And I have said this every year. We can’t complain, because right after the game is finals,” Niumatalolo said. “The NCAA has allowed us and Army to have one more week to go out on the road (recruiting) because we have that late game. So the coaches are on the road recruiting trying to catch up because we haven’t been on the road. It’s something we have to do.
“The coordinators come later back in that week to have two walkthroughs, and then we had two practices before we left, and we had two practices here. That’s definitely not enough to get ready for this team, but this is our 13th bowl game in 14 years.”
 
Everything I've taken so far it's on the top post of page 3. I took old dominion +1, la Tech ml +103 and Ohio -2.5 -120 all on soft openers. I took over 63.5 as only total today. Lean under in go daddy bowl tonight but haven't bet it
 
Overs in Mobile have been a strong play if memory served. I've been to several of those shootouts
 
Last two for sure. 4-3 to over last 7. One of my fav plays from that game LY

[video=youtube;2lvf8eHBzZI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lvf8eHBzZI[/video]
 
I went to the ECU-Marshall one in early 2000s. ECU was up something like 35-7 at half, and lost to Byron Leftwich like 65-49. Was a lot of fun
 
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