SEC Postseason Thread

The Florida/Bama game was the worst offensive football game I've ever seen live. Truly embarrassing for the division champs to play like that. As good as Kiffin was last year and as good as he was early this season, he has fallen off big time. I think a lot of the fault falls on Hurts too as he is playing like a freshman and can't get away with it against top flight defenses. OJ Howard was open enough to have 200+ yards and 3+ TD but Hurts never even looked at him. Just bad reads now for weeks. Kiffin has to just accept he has a freshman QB out there and needs to give Big Bo the tater and pound more. Maybe the defense is good enough to win a title in spite of this offense - they are certainly special, but I'm certainly not ready to crown Alabama champ.

G - what did you think? Am I over reacting? If Clear Vision reads this he will undoubtedly admonish me for speaking ill of Lane
 
CrimsonK said:
The Florida/Bama game was the worst offensive football game I've ever seen live. Truly embarrassing for the division champs to play like that. As good as Kiffin was last year and as good as he was early this season, he has fallen off big time. I think a lot of the fault falls on Hurts too as he is playing like a freshman and can't get away with it against top flight defenses. OJ Howard was open enough to have 200+ yards and 3+ TD but Hurts never even looked at him. Just bad reads now for weeks. Kiffin has to just accept he has a freshman QB out there and needs to give Big Bo the tater and pound more. Maybe the defense is good enough to win a title in spite of this offense - they are certainly special, but I'm certainly not ready to crown Alabama champ.

G - what did you think? Am I over reacting? If Clear Vision reads this he will undoubtedly admonish me for speaking ill of Lane
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I am almost convinced that Lane knows that against these teams we've played recently (Miss St, UT-C, AU and UF), we can run downhill and tire them out whenever we want to. So he spends more time calling plays and working on things we aren't as good at. It sounds so arrogant that we would use these important games as scrimmages to a point, but with our defense against these poor offenses, maybe he feels we have some leeway. I also think we call so many WR sweeps and screens in the 1H of games to soften up the interior of the opposing defenses so that we can spend the 2nd half running Bo right at them. Looking back at last season, we also looked pretty pedestrian against AU and UF to finish the season, then played some pretty good offensive football in the playoffs. I think the bigger concern are the injuries, particularly on defense. Luckily we have a month for guys to heal up and new guys to practice
 
Will go ahead and post my SEC Bowl game PRs. Obviously things like injuries, suspensions, coaches leaving etc can change things, but this is a starting point for me and can at least drive discussion. I have not seen any Vegas lines yet, so I may be way off

Miss St -14 vs Miami OH
Vanderbilt +6 vs NCSt
aTm -1.5 vs Kansas St - if Texas A&M is fully healthy, I'd expect my PR for them to go up
South Carolina +11 vs USF
Arkansas +2.5 vs Va Tech
UGA +1 vs TCU
Tennessee -1.5 vs Nebraska
LSU +2 vs Louisville
Kentucky +3 vs Ga Tech
Florida -3 vs Iowa

NY 6:

USC -2 vs Penn St
Auburn +7 vs Oklahoma
Wisconsin -3.5 vs W. Michigna
Michigan -4 vs FSU

Semis:

Alabama -9.5 vs Washington
Clemson -1 vs Ohio State
 
Penn state catching 7.5 has me very interested. Two of the hottest teams in the nation. Line too high
 
And I will be on UW. I will take my chances with Peterson catching a ton and a month to prepare.
 
dudleysdad said:
Penn state catching 7.5 has me very interested. Two of the hottest teams in the nation. Line too high
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I just don't buy the USC love fest the media has had the last few weeks. I think they are good and talented, but fringe top 10 team IMO
 
dudleysdad said:
And I will be on UW. I will take my chances with Peterson catching a ton and a month to prepare.
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3 scores seems like a ton, but if anyone can cover it, Alabama can. But I agree with you. I won't be betting Alabama minus the points for sure
 
dudleysdad said:
And I will be on UW. I will take my chances with Peterson catching a ton and a month to prepare.
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yea

i have like UW all year.....that USC game worries me though. That was the 1st time they saw atheletes.....what lurks/looms is like nothing these guys have ever seen...
 
ProV1Colt said:
God I remember that shitty gm. Vols vs UVa
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I remember listening to that game on the radio on the way back from Clemson's bowl. SEC was awful that year. Too bad Shawn Moore hurt his thumb. UVA really had a special team, and with him healthy the ACC had three of the five best teams in the country.
 
UW may keep it close for a half but Alabama's depth and playing (effectively) at home = they run away and hide. Peterson has a month to prepare. But so does the best coach the sport has ever seen.
 
Yup, no chance for Washington.....Bama too strong, too deep, too good, too athletic, too 5 star and basically just too-SEC for the granola eating hippies from Warshignton......but let's play it anyway
 
Here are the bowl sides I have bet so far - Will hopefully get totals later - been capping 7 hours straight, end almost near, eyes and brain hurt..

Houston -3
Memphis +7
ODU +1
Troy -2.5 -120
Vanderbilt +4 (smaller)
Washington State -3 -120
Boise State -6.5 -120
Miami PICK
aTm -2
Stanford +1
LSU PICK
Clemson +3.5
Oklahoma -2.5 -120
 
So......
Kiffin may go to Houston....LSU wants Kiffin
UH has supposedly reached out to Linc Riley.....LSU supporters want Riley if no Kiffin, some want Riley 1st
A local guy here has said that Helfrich has reached out to LSU about the OC position and some Oregon folks think Riley might just get the Oregon job.

Got all that?

I hope this is on page like 2 or 3 in the "binder" from coach O
 
Questions for the SEC guys:

1. Is Washington the best offense Alabama has seen this year?

2. What offense in the SEC compares to Wasington most in terms of style?
 
C-MAN said:
Questions for the SEC guys:

1. Is Washington the best offense Alabama has seen this year?

2. What offense in the SEC compares to Wasington most in terms of style?
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1&2. Yep. The other two good ones are Arkansas and Ole Miss who torched Bama. There isn't a great comparison but Arkansas would have to be closest - true pro style with relatively immobile QB that can throw and a group of good receivers. The SEC QB play was atrocious this season.
 
gps_3 said:
Will go ahead and post my SEC Bowl game PRs. Obviously things like injuries, suspensions, coaches leaving etc can change things, but this is a starting point for me and can at least drive discussion. I have not seen any Vegas lines yet, so I may be way off

Miss St -14 vs Miami OH
Vanderbilt +6 vs NCSt
aTm -1.5 vs Kansas St - if Texas A&M is fully healthy, I'd expect my PR for them to go up
South Carolina +11 vs USF
Arkansas +2.5 vs Va Tech
UGA +1 vs TCU
Tennessee -1.5 vs Nebraska
LSU +2 vs Louisville
Kentucky +3 vs Ga Tech
Florida -3 vs Iowa

NY 6:

USC -2 vs Penn St
Auburn +7 vs Oklahoma
Wisconsin -3.5 vs W. Michigna
Michigan -4 vs FSU

Semis:

Alabama -9.5 vs Washington
Clemson -1 vs Ohio State
Click to expand...

I was really hoping that Vandy, UK and UT would get diff matchups. I wanted to bet Vandy and UK prior to bowl selection, but those aren't great matchups for them at all, I took vandy with a smaller bet and I wanted to fade UT but at current price against a terrible Neb team I'm really thinking about doing something dumb and actually betting on them and not against them for first time this season.
 
Still waiting on totals, not sure what's up with the delay. They were out morning Monday last year. Added Kentucky +4 (smaller) yesterday
 
Week 1: 6-3
Week 2: 1-1
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 6-13
Week 5: 6-3
Week 6: 10-3
Week 7: 11-10
Week 8: 8-8
Week 9: 6-6
Week 10: 9-9
Week 11: 18-4
Week 12: 16-8
Week 13: 8-7
Week 14: 11-4
Week 15: 4-0
Week 16: 3-4
Week 17: 9-8
Week 18: 19-19
Week 19: 13-5
Week 20: 4-1
Overall: 182-121 (60.06%)

2015 Bowl Record - 76-66 (+20.75 units)
2016 Bowl Record: 52-37 (58.24%)

FCS Quarterfinals:
SHSU/JMU Under 90.5
JMU -2.5
North Dakota State -6.5
Wofford +7
Youngstown State -3 2H -120
Richmond/Eastern Washington Under 65.5

FCS Semifinals:
James Madison/NDSU Under 62.5
Eastern Washington -6.5

D2 Championship
North Alabama +22.5

FCS Championship
JMU -2.5
JMU/Youngstown State Under 64.5

Bowl Plays here:

Bowl Props
PAC 12 Over 3.5 bowl wins -115
Big 12 Under 2.5 bowl wins +115

New Mexico Bowl: UTSA/New Mexico (Saturday Dec 17 2:00 Albuquerque ESPN)

Las Vegas Bowl: San Diego State/Houston (Saturday Dec 17 3:30 Las Vegas ABC)

Houston -3
SDSU/Houston Under 59.5

Cure Bowl: Arkansas State/UCF (Saturday Dec 17 5:30 Orlando CBSSN)

Camellia Bowl: Toledo/App State (Saturday Dec 17 5:30 Montgomery ESPN)

(App State v. Toledo) Highest Scoring Half - 2nd Half + OT -110
2H Toledo TT Over 14 +100

New Orleans Bowl: S Miss/ULL (Saturday Dec 17 9:00 New Orleans (Dome) ESPN)

S Miss/ULL Over 57

Miami Beach Bowl: Tulsa/CMU (Monday Dec 19 2:30 Miami ESPN)

Tulsa/CMU OVER 68
Tulsa TT Over 39.5 -115

Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis/WKU (Tuesday Dec 20 7:00 Ft Lauderdale ESPN)

Memphis +7
Memphis first team to score 40/neither team scores 40 +200 (smaller)
Riley Ferguson Over 300.5 passing yards +100
Riley Ferguson Over 24.5 completions -120

Poinsettia Bowl: BYU/Wyoming (Wednesday Dec 21 7:00 San Diego ESPN)

Wyoming TT OVER 21 -135
Nick Kurtz Over 3.5 receptions -120

Potato Bowl: Colorado State/Idaho (Thursday Dec 22 7:00 Boise ESPN)

Idaho 2H TT Over 9.5 -115

Bahamas Bowl: ODU/EMU (Friday Dec 23 1:00 Bahamas ESPN)

ODU +1
EMU/ODU Over 63.5 -105
EMU/ODU 2H Over 28 -115

Armed Forces Bowl: La Tech/Navy (Friday Dec 23 4:30 Ft. Worth ESPN)

La Tech ML +103

Dollar General Bowl: Ohio/Troy (Friday Dec 23 8:00 Mobile ESPN)

Troy -2.5 -120
Troy 2H TT Over 14 -120

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii/MTSU (Saturday Dec 24 8:00 Honolulu ESPN)

MTSU/Hawaii Over 70
MTSU -4.5
MTSU TT Over 39.5 -110

St. Pete Bowl: Miami OH/Miss St (Monday Dec 26 11:00 St. Pete (Dome) ESPN)

MOH/Miss St Over 58

Quick Lane Bowl: BC/Maryland (Monday Dec 26 2:30 Detroit (Dome) ESPN)

BC/Maryland Under 44.5

Independence Bowl: NC State/Vanderbilt (Monday Dec 26 5:00 Shreveport ESPN2)

Vanderbilt +4 (smaller)
Vanderbilt TT Over 19.5 -110
Long TD Over 40.5 yards -110
Trent Sherfield Over 3 catches +105
Trent Sherfield Over 41.5 receiving yards +115

Dallas Bowl: Army/N Texas (Tuesday Dec 27 Noon Dallas ESPN)

Army/N Texas Over 47.5 -111
Longest TD Over 44.5 +100

Military Bowl: Temple/Wake (Tuesday Dec 27 3:30 Annapolis ESPN)

Wake +12

Holiday Bowl Washington State/Minnesota (Tuesday Dec 27 7:00 San Diego ESPN)

Wazzu -3 -120
Wazzu/Minnesota Under 60
Wazzu/Minnesota Over 60 (slightly smaller - limiting exposure with this bet given Minny suspensions)

Cactus Bowl Baylor/Boise State (Tuesday Dec 27 10:15 Phoenix (Dome*) ESPN)

Boise St -6.5 -120
Jeremy McNichols Over 150.5 rushing yards -120

Pinstripe Bowl: NW/Pitt (Wednesday Dec 28 2:00 New York ESPN)

Clayton Thorson Over 276.5 passing yards

Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami/WVU (Wednesday Dec 28 5:30 Orlando ESPN)

Miami PICK
Miami/WVU Under 56
Miami 1H ML -120
WVU/Miami Under 28.5 1H
WVU TT Under 27.5
Skyler Howard Under 257.5 passing yards -120
Justin Crawford Under 89.5 rushing yards -110

Foster Farms Bowl: Indiana/Utah (Wednesday Dec 28 8:30 Santa Clara FOX)

Texas Bowl: Kansas State/aTm (Wednesday Dec 28 9:00 Houston ESPN)

aTm -2
Kansas State 2H TT Over 13 -105

Birmingham Bowl: USF/USCe (Thursday Dec 29 2:00 Birmingham ESPN)

USF/USCe Under 31.5 1H -115
Deebo Samuel Over 54.5 receiving yards -120
Deebo Samuel Over 4 catches -115

Belk Bowl: VT/Arkansas (Thursday Dec 29 5:30 Charlotte ESPN)

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State/Colorado (Thursday Dec 29 9:00 San Antonio (Dome) ESPN)

Colorado -3 -105
Oklahoma State TT Under 31 -120
Ok St 2H TT Over 13.5 -120

Liberty Bowl: TCU/UGA (Friday Dec 30 Noon Memphis ESPN)

Terry Godwin Over 3 catches -115/-135

Sun Bowl: UNC/Stanford (Friday Dec 30 2:00 El Paso CBS)

Stanford +1
Mitch Trubisky Under 2.5 TD -120
Mitch Trubisky Under 287.5 passing yards -115

Music City Bowl: Nebraska/Tennessee (Friday Dec 30 3:30 Nashville ESPN)

Tennessee -3 -115
Alvin Kamara Over 109.5 rushing + receiving -115

Arizona Bowl: AFA/USA (Friday Dec 30 5:30 Tuscon ASN/CI)

Orange Bowl: FSU/Michigan (Friday Dec 30 8:00 Miami ESPN)

FSU/Michigan Under 56.5

Citrus Bowl: LSU/Louisville (Saturday Dec 31 11:00 Orlando ABC)

LSU PICK
LSU/Louisville Under 61
Lamar Jackson Under 277.5 passing yards -120
Lamar Jackson Under 127.5 rushing yards -120

Taxslayer Bowl: GT/UK (Saturday Dec 31 11:00 Jacksonville ESPN)

Kentucky +4 (smaller)
Dedrick Mills Over 52.5 rushing yards -120

Peach Bowl: Washington/Alabama (Saturday Dec 31 3:00 Atlanta (Dome) ESPN)

Myles Gaskin Under 80.5 rushing yards -120
Washington/Alabama Longest TD Over 50.5 -110
Washington 1Q TT Over 2.5 -115

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State/Clemson (Saturday Dec 31 7:00 Glendale (Dome) ESPN)

Clemson +3.5

Outback Bowl: Florida/Iowa (Monday Jan 2 Tampa 1:00 ABC)

Antonio Callaway Over 56.5 receiving yards -120
Brandon Powell Over 31.5 receiving yards -120
CJ Beathard Under 15.5 completions -120

Cotton Bowl: WMU/Wisconsin (Monday Jan 2 Dallas 1:00 ESPN)

WMU/Wisconsin Over 54
Jarvion Franklin Under 88.5 rushing yards -120

Rose Bowl: USC/Penn State (Monday Jan 2 Pasadena 5:00 ESPN)

USC 1H -4 -105

Sugar Bowl: Auburn/Oklahoma (Monday Jan 2 New Orleans 8:30 (Dome) ESPN)

Oklahoma -2.5 -120

CFP Championship: Alabama/Clemson Under 54.5 (Monday Jan 2 Tampa 8:00 ESPN)

Alabama/Clemson Under 54.5
Longest TD Over 47.5 yards -110
OJ 'Da Juiceman' Howard Over 35.5 receiving yards -120
 
Last edited:
FSU/Michigan Under 56.5
WMU/Wisconsin Over 54
Houston/SDSU Under 59.5
CMU/Tulsa Over 68
LSU/Louisville Under 61
S Miss/ULL Over 57
MOH/Miss St Over 58
Maryland/BC Under 44.5
Wazzu/Minnesota Under 60
WVU/Miami Under 56
 
New Mexico Bowl: UTSA/New Mexico (Saturday Dec 17 2:00 Albuquerque ESPN) UNM -6/63
UTSA virgin bowl game. New Mexico bowl for B2B years and is playing at home in this game for second year in a row. They were motivated last year. I really have no clue what to make of UTSA - I saw them very sparingly this season and when breaking down their stats I still have no real idea. Looks like they are a better defense than they are offense but I really can't handicap how they may handle the triple option. UNM rush offense is nasty and going to be a tall ask for UTSA to stop them - in general, I don't like Texas teams against options with my thought being they see lot of spread attacks in youth and HS ball but likely very little option. If UTSA can pass a little this could be high scoring although pace won't be very fast - NM pass defense is turrible. Need to gauge some motivation here in run up to game. Over 6-1 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7.

Las Vegas Bowl: San Diego State/Houston (Saturday Dec 17 3:30 Las Vegas ABC) Houston -10.5/47
SDSU coming off MWC win in back and forth game in Laramie. SDSU has been poor down the home stretch - 1-2 SU last 3 and 0-3 ATS. SDSU matches up horribly with Houston. They rely entirely on the run game and can only throw once that is working and really don't do it well at all. You don't run on Houston - period. That means the very thing that makes SDSU who they are is going to be taken from them here. Defensively, they are tough to run on but aren;t as good against pass, although they aren't bad there either but certainly not as strong there. Houston doesn't run the ball on offense very well at all so they will be doing more in the pass game - they are about 100th in run and 15th in pass nationally. Ward has been hurt all season and this extra time should be really beneficial for a dynamic QB. Houston has shown when they are focused they are one of best teams in nation. I don't know how to gauge their motivation here - Herman moves on and excellent DC Todd Orlando is interim and as of this moment he is interviewing for gig full time as is their OC Major Applewhite so I think we get a prepared team here. I wish I could gauge their emotion and mindset better here but they are just such a good matchup I had to play them less than a TD fav - if they don't care then it's dicey, if they do, they destroy the Tecs. The good news, SDSU may not care too much either with the potential G5 bowl bid on the radar for part of the season and now having won the conference it's no guarantee they will be dialed in. Rocky Long not great in bowls 3-7 all time and 2-3 at SDSU. Weird game where I lean Under, haven't seen number yet but it rates to be a game played in the 40's and total will be higher. May end up on fav and under and could go SDSU TT under as well. Pumphrey needs 107 yards to catch Ron Dayne's rushing record and I think he is an underdog to get it. If Houston can score 20 here I will feel pretty good about the cover. Over 5-2 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. I bet Houston -3 and Under 59.5

Cure Bowl: Arkansas State/UCF (Saturday Dec 17 5:30 Orlando CBSSN) UCF -4/50.5
Ark St really good down the stretch - rough start to the season but they were their usual terrifying selves in Sun Belt play. They lost by 5 in a game to ULL in November in a game where the adjusted scoring margin had them as 9 point winners. Not a big fan of their offense, particularly the OL is poor but I like their defense. I could say the same for UCF in that regard, both their lackluster offense and pretty good defense - their OL is particularly bad also. I don't watch much of either of these teams so I'm really having to rely a lot on some advanced stats. As far as motivation goes, I think both sides will ave plenty of it - UCF didnt win a game last season so obviously missed a bowl and Arkansas State has yet to win a bowl under their HC. I wonder some about both coaches and their level of focus as both HC are up and comers and their names are at least being floated surrounding the Oregon and Baylor gigs, respectively. Pace should be plenty fast and weather should be nice in Orlando but it's a game that I think could be lower scoring. I'm not sure where this one gets totaled but I tend to think there will be an opportunity for under but I don't know if I care. Under 1-0 all time, Fav 1-0 ATS all time.

Camellia Bowl: Toledo/App State (Saturday Dec 17 5:30 Montgomery ESPN) Toledo -2.5/57
What a great matchup! App St were bowl virgins last year and played in this very game. They didn't play particularly well either. App St relies on a strong ground game on offense and plays good sound defense. App St was outmatched in only one game and that was against Miami where they got in a huge hole early and never could climb out - they should have beat the Vols in Knoxville in the opener and beat up on a bunch of other patsies. They do have a couple MAC teams on recent resume - Ohio in the bowl game last year (31-29 walk off winner) and @ Akron this year (45-38 winner). Toledo actually has some athletes which is sorta rare for a MAC team, especially this season, woof. They are balanced on offense and I really do think they have a great group - their issue will be on defense but I'm not totally convinced App State is the type of team to take full advantage of that - they run sorta poor mans option and while it will be different than what Toledo has seen I just don't like their offense very much. They will still have some success because Toledo is just that bad defensively. Toledo may be a real nice look for a 2H over, their offense is great and defense is horrid in 2H - I'm a huge fan of Woodside the QB who throws for about 3TD+ in ever game he plays and he has some nice talent around him. May look to go prop route here or in game/2h. Over 2-0 all time, dog 2-0 ATS all time.

New Orleans Bowl: S Miss/ULL (Saturday Dec 17 9:00 New Orleans (Dome) ESPN) PICK/62
This just feels right - another cool matchup. ULL owns this game. Winners in 2011, 12, 13 and 14 and they missed a bowl game last year. I'll never forget this game some years back when a ULL coach was so riled up he was head butting his own players and had blood pouring down his face! I think this game will mean something to both teams being played in New Orleans and that is a significant place to both tams and fan bases - should be a huge turnout they've got 35K each time ULL has gone and as many as 55K. ULL is really poor on offense - they dink and dunk and try to run it but don't do any particularly well. What they do well is stop the run they are very good in the front 7 but very porous at the back - they play weird games - the ULM game is a good example they didn't even out gain them by 100 yards yet won 30-3 (240-147). S Miss is the superior football team I have very little question about that - they are opposite ULL they regularly win box scores but lose games and were 2-5 against bowlers. I don't think USM is going to try to run a whole lot, fortunately for them, they prefer to throw and that is where ULL is bad. Defensively they appear to be better on paper than they are - I think they are pretty bad in all areas but they only allowed 400+ 4 times but give up 33 ppg - weird. Game will prob end up being a back and forth where neither team stops the other - that is way of this bowl and what the people wanna see in games like this. Over 5-2 last, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7, Sunbelt 6-1 SU last 7. I bet Over 57

Miami Beach Bowl: Tulsa/CMU (Monday Dec 19 2:30 Miami ESPN) Tulsa -13.5/73.5
We know what we are gonna get with Tulsa - they are going to score a ton. Defensively, they are poor and they are going to be tested in the back by Rush and the Chips' pass game. It will be his last game and he will go out as one of the more decorated Chips and I tend to think they are excited to not play a bowl game near home in the cold again but head down to Florida for this game. Tulsa played a good game last year as huge dogs against VT and I think they will enjoy being here as well so I don't see a clear motivation edge. I don't like CMU and I think they are just going to be out athlete and out schemed by Tulsa here but the line will reflect that. I wish CMU moved faster, they are so slow because the matchups really favor scoring here and again, total will reflect it but I still will look to bet the over if I can get something in the 60's. CMU defense isn't bad but they also haven't seen anything resembling what Tulsa will do here. Over 2-0 all time, Fav 2-0 ATS all time (Avg 86.5 points) I bet Over 68

Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis/WKU (Tuesday Dec 20 7:00 Ft Lauderdale ESPN) Memphis -2.5/84
I wonder if Jeff Brohm will still be around for this game? UPDATE - he is gone, hired at Purdue. Fells to me like he sees his window to jump being this year and is being floated for Baylor and Purdue jobs and rightfully so, great coach. Norvell elected not to coach the Tigers in the Birmingham bowl last year after Fuente left for greener pastures and they put up a truly miserable effort against Auburn - I will forever have images of Paxton Lynch's hilariously poor throwing effort from that game in my mind. I guess WKU could be a bit disappointed here considering their quality and they had to think they had a shot at G5NYDB but I think more will have to do with the whole coaching landscape. I really like this Memphis team, had a big win on them against Houston to close the season and I think they have as scary an offense as WKU does. This game should be awesome, just points galore. wkU has scored 40+ in every game since October 1. Defensively, they are just horrid against the pass and Memphis is going to challenge and exploit that big time. WKU is really good against the run but one of nation's worst against pass - Memphis is a top 20 pass offense and like WKU, a very poor pass defense. This game just has everything lining up for points to be scored. I'd love it if Brohm were to stay put so as to not disrupt any offensive continuity but either way I'll like be on over, even if it does open at 80 or so - wish WKU moved a bit faster because it won't be justified from pace standpoint but we just saw that mattered very little last game with WKU/LT where we got 100+. UPDATE - With Brohm being gone and the opening line as poor as it was, may not necessarily jump on over because I don't know impact it has on WKU - I do know this - I don't think it will be positive. Over 1-1 all time, Fav 1-1 ATS all time. I bet Memphis +7

Poinsettia Bowl: BYU/Wyoming (Wednesday Dec 21 7:00 San Diego ESPN) BYU -7/55.5
Taysom Hill out at QB for this game - Tanner Mangum a serviceable backup. He didn't get hardly any reps this year but got a ton last year as Hill has been very injury prone. BYU pretty senior laden and they strike me as a team that will want to compete even though they are back to the Poinsettia bowl for the second time in 5 years (2012 beat SDSU 23-6). This game is traditionally a bit lower scoring except for last year when Boise State had one of the most impressive football games I've ever witnessed against NIU. I've been wanting to fade BYU in the bowl game for most of the season but with Wyoming or SDSU being the likely opponents those aren't the teams that I'd really like to be able to do it - Wyoming could exploit the atrocious BYU secondary but will prob get run all over. I wanted to fade BYU so bad in the bowls but I'm just bummed it's Wyoming they get because I don't love the matchup. Wyoming has shown they are a dangerous dog so there would be really no circumstance that would warrant laying potentially 2 scores with BYU. Under 4-3 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7.

Potato Bowl: Colorado State/Idaho (Thursday Dec 22 7:00 Boise ESPN) Colorado State -11/62
This is another awesome game, IMO. Really incredible that Idaho is bowling in their penultimate FBS season. I don't watch a ton of either team so not super familiar with how they scheme. Idaho appears to be all pass on offense and can't stop the pass on defense. Colorado State had a renaissance of sorts late this season where they went from a horrid offense to a really good one. They scored at least 37 in their final 5 games, 3 of which were bowlers. Run offense and pass defense are their strengths which the defensive portion of that rates to do well against Idaho and the run game just may be good enough to overpower a less athletic Vandal defense. The Rams have bowled the past 3 years, 1-2 SU. Idaho 3rd bowl in history and first since '09. They should bring lot of fans to this game, I would think. Doubt Colorado State brings a ton so I think there could be a legitimate HFA and motivation to Idaho here - I just don't know if they can stand tall. Inclement weather would seem to aid the Rams even as a sizable favorite they seems built for that and even though Idaho will be playing in Idaho, they won't be in the friendly confines of the Kibbie Dome. Pace will be slow and potential weather with it being late December in Boise but this looks like it could feature points. On paper I lean CSU pretty heavy but will depend if it comes real short or not if I would get involved. Perhaps a CSU TT over if weather is okay. Over 4-3 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7.

Bahamas Bowl: ODU/EMU (Friday Dec 23 1:00 Bahamas ESPN) ODU -7/68
ODU winners of 5 straight (Avg score 41-24) Scored 31+ in every win this season - 3 losses were to 3 really good football teams - App St, NC State, WKU. Defensively they gave up 31, 41 and 59 in their losses (all to bowl teams) but kept 7 teams to 24 or less. ODU played a super easy schedule when looking deeper. Their adjusted numbers show they aren't near as good as their raw numbers indicate. EMU may not be the team that takes advantage as they aren't one of the better rated bowl teams, in my estimation. EMU 3-3 down the stretch (Avg score 29-31). They are another team that their raw numbers appear decent but they are worse than the numbers show at surface level. Pass defense a real problem for EMU and pass offense the strength. ODU balanced offensively and have show they can tailor a game plan to exploit defensive weaknesses. Defensively ODU balanced in terms of how well they defend both run and pass but when looking at teams faced they have seen a lot more run heavy teams and not many that throw it well. Both teams should be super motivated - EMU first bowl in 30 years and ODU first ever bowl. Game played in Bahamas - third edition of that game that has featured a 49-48 game and 45-31. Will look to go over the total and may get a decent number (EMU avg total 60 - ODU 58) Pace will be pretty average but I think the situation and condition surrounding game lend themselves toward this being a loose and higher scoring game. ODU looks to be between -4 and -7 and total should be high 50's or low 60's. Over 2-0 all time, Fav 1-1 ATS all time. I bet ODU +1

Armed Forces Bowl: La Tech/Navy (Friday Dec 23 4:30 Ft. Worth ESPN) LT -6.5/68.5
La Tech 2-0 last two and Navy 3-0 last 3. Not real sure how to adjust Navy with their injuries - they certainly didn't improve as a team with the losses they suffered late. I don't how LT will do against the option here - my guess is not great. However, LT is real bad against pass and good against run so maybe they will be okay. I know this, they are going to love playing this Navy defense! Last game seeing Temple WR just running totally free is extremely ominous against a much more athletic LT offense that has nation's most explosive offense. Total could be enormous. Navy will prob be the favorite here and if so I would be happy to play LT - Navy is a fraud. I believe they will be motivated and can't say same for Navy who dealt with roller coaster final couple weeks and dealing with disappointing of missing out on G5 bid although benefit of doubt to servicemen. Service academies haven't done particularly well historically in this bowl, contrary to what I expected to find out. Navy pass defense is dreadful and that is where LT will torch them. Seems like one of the first game here where I really like the prospect of a dog. Navy without much of a break here and while I'm betting this before they play Army, if they lose and they very well could, I think I lose some value on the number. If they win, not a very high risk move to bet early because beating Army is par for course so a loss damages LT line value while a win does very little, IMO. Perhaps by betting early I miss LT as a 3 pt dog but I like them to win SU anyway so I'll take a +$ while I can. I like reading what Holtz has to say about the bowl and he always interests me as a dog. Under 4-3 last 7, dog 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet La Tech ML +103

Dollar General Bowl: Ohio/Troy (Friday Dec 23 8:00 Mobile ESPN) Troy -7.5/47
I'm glad Ohio appeared competent on a national stage recently because my opinion of them hasn't changed - I don't like them. Nice run defense and can run the football okay on offense but only have one athlete on offense and the rest a bunch of plodders. Troy is going to out athlete them badly here. Troy is very bad running the ball and defending the pass, fortunately, neither weakness will be exploited by Ohio. Troy is very good throwing the ball and Ohio ranks 113th nationally in pass defense. This will be pretty much a home game for Troy in Mobile and I think they will have a yuge turnout - first bowl since 2010 and Ohio have been regulars at bowls so I think a yuge motivational edge to Troy here. Solich is a good enough coach to keep his teams from being blown out, no losses by more than 7 but I just don't like their prospects very much in this game. Troy was disappointing down stretch but when they were motivated they showed they were a borderline Top 25 team - I think they care here and win. Also, if you have never spent much time in rural Alabama, these folks love them some Dollar General so the bowl swag for the home team will have them through the roof. Their dorm rooms will be full of fresh $1 balloons following this one. Over 4-3 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet Troy -2.5 -120

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii/MTSU (Saturday Dec 24 8:00 Honolulu ESPN) MTSU -8.5/77.5
99% sure Stockstill back at QB for Raiders. I know he wanted to play in season finale after his backup was TKO but his dad, the HC, kept him out and decided to wildcat FAU to death for a school record 77 points and 757 yards. Stockstill once played a HS championship game on one leg and he has had plenty of time for the collarbone to heal. MTSU has fantastic skill guys and Hawaii is really in trouble when they are going to try to bottle them up. Mathers and Richie James are going to go nuts. I just don't see any way Hawaii can match up - they have one good LB and a bunch of junk around him. In reading through the comments of Stockstill and the MTSU players they all seem extremely optimistic with as much blitzing as Hawaii does they are going to be able to exploit that. If MTSU wants to just wildcat the Bows into oblivion I think they can the Hawaii rush defense is one of nation's worst or if they want to go with a traditional QB and use their pace and quick hitters they are going to have success that way also. The good news for the Bows, they are at home here and the MTSU defense is absolutely turrible. Hawaii is going to do pretty much whatever they want with the inside zone they run and RPO off of that. I've been reading a lot from both teams bowl prep and this game looks like both teams are just going to have fun. Some coaches get conservative and we've seen that thus far but many coaches let their hair down and my opinion is this is a game that will just be really fun and wide open. MTSU pace is one of fastest in country and while Hawaii is slightly below average paced I think they play up to the Raider speed. This game has been low scoring past few but this one looks like it could set up for a Tulsa/Hawaii game of old on the island. Strong lean to MTSU but prob even moreso the over as this one has the potential to be totaled very reasonably. I'm cautiously optimistic the over here could represent the best total opportunity of the bowls... Under 6-1 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7 I bet Over 70

St. Pete Bowl: Miami OH/Miss St (Monday Dec 26 11:00 St. Pete (Dome) ESPN) Miss St -16.5/61.5
Really underwhelming matchup here. MOH is a good story wit the way they improved and turned it around and I suppose Miss St is as well as both teams were huge dogs to bowl in September but alas, here we are with a bowl game the world could do without.. Miss St rounded out the year with just a lethal offense. They were about as good as anybody that final month - I get they got some weak rush defenses but I watched them and they would have done bad things to good teams - even Alabama they should/could have hung a pretty big number on if not for poor finishing and untimely drops. MOH is a good defense though, at least by MAC standards. MOH first bowl since 2010 and first team in history to start 0-6 and make a bowl. MOH usually a good bowler, 7-3 all time although none recently. I think Miss St may actually care - they seemed to enjoy winning and have a few senior leaders who I believe they will want to send off well. Warm weather so that usually helps two teams get into a game they otherwise may not be thrilled about. MOH offense is pretty bad top to bottom but defensively they are pretty good although I can say with certainty trying to stop this offense is going to be a whole diff beast. Miss St will be big favorite here and I think rightfully so - their suspect secondary may not be in too much trouble against the Hawks even with their improved QB play. Hard really to gauge how much Miss St does esp given how MOH likes to slow it down and muck things up but I think they are going to have to break some tendencies and throw it around at higher tempo to catch up here thus leading to more scoring and maybe being able to take advantage of Miss St back end. Mullen future a concern here as he is being rumored for other jobs. Will look for an over here or perhaps Miss St TT OV. Under 4-3 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. I bet Over 58

Quick Lane Bowl: BC/Maryland (Monday Dec 26 2:30 Detroit (Dome) ESPN) BC -1/38
Is this an ACC conf game? Maryland missed bowl last year and lost bowls in '13 and'14. BC missed bowl last year and has lost last 5 since '07. BC can do nothing on offense and is very tough to run on but is vulnerable against pass - which Maryland hasn't shown the ability to do. Defensively, Maryland really bad stopping run but better against pass - BC doesn't do anything well but they will certainly be content to have an edge when leaning on the Terp front all game. Game prob significant to both teams for diff reasons, BC because they want to break the losing streak and Maryland because this is a springboard game for Durkin into future. Indoor which is bummer because it's a great under on paper and still may be. Under 4-3 last 7, Dog 5-2 ATS last 7, 6 of 7 decided by 1 score. I bet Under 44.5

Independence Bowl: NC State/Vanderbilt (Monday Dec 26 5:00 Shreveport ESPN2) PICK/44
I was really hoping for a different matchup for Vanderbilt as they were certainly on my "Play On" list for bowl season but this isn't a great matchup. Vandy is still a run first team but Shurmur had a light come on these past couple games and ended up showing to be a pretty nice little QB which is very surprising to say. The NCSU defense is pretty good and really good against the run and improved as season went against pass. That's just not ideal for Vandy. I know Vandy will want it - what an incredible finish to the regualr season by Mason beating Ole Miss and Tennessee and having the offense roar to life - this defense will be a diff test than those two though. Vandy avg 500 yards final 3 (Mizzou, OM, UT) Vandy defense is solid but more vulnerable against pass and that is primarily where NCSU will try to hit them, I think, although they are far from an air raid attack. Vandy missed bowl past two years but were 2-0 prior in recent years. NC St lambasted by Dak and Miss St in the Belk last year 51-28 - think they will want to show better here and they should be motivated. Hard game to call. No real interest at the moment unless Vandy decent size dog. Over 4-3 last 7, Fav 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet Vandy +4 smaller

Dallas Bowl: Army/N Texas (Tuesday Dec 27 Noon Dallas ESPN) TBD/TBD
Over 4-2 all time, Fav 5-1 ATS all time.

Military Bowl: Temple/Wake (Tuesday Dec 27 3:30 Annapolis ESPN) Temple -10/39
Man, what a bummer for Temple to go back to the same field where they just destroyed Navy in the ship and that is what they are rewarded with.. Temple lost to Toledo last year so perhaps they want redemption there. Wake will care - first bowl since 2011, big deal to bowl at Wake, I think. Huge favorite that is really good but prob won't care isn't the recipe to lay a big number especially against a good defense like Wake's. Neither team is going to move the football a lot, IMO. Wake offense is abysmal top to bottom but esp their lack of passing game will be troublesome against a Temple front 7 that is ferocious. The Wake defense is prob even more impressive than their numbers show because of how much of the load they are asked to carry with this team. This is going to be very slow paced and should be very low scoring. Would be fine betting under but doubt I see a nice number. UPDATE - Rhule hired by Baylor - not sure what to do with this now but I don't think it makes a big fav any more attractive - I originally had this at -13 and figured that should be reduced a bit given the news. Over 5-2 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7.

Holiday Bowl Washington State/Minnesota (Tuesday Dec 27 7:00 San Diego ESPN) Wazzu -11/52
Bowl still a big deal at Wazzu, I think. Been 2 of past 3 years but still not a lot of bowl games in their history. They beat Miami 20-14 last year. Gophers broke their bowl curse last season but are 1-7 last 8 having lost 7 in a row prior to beating CMU last year. Could be some disappointment from Wazzu here as they had bigger prizes in mind but they aren't a blue blood and it was always a long shot so I think they will prob be fine. I know both teams have to be happy to play a warm game in December. Minny doesn't matchup well at all with Wazzu - their offense is truly miserable and they stop the run well but not the pass. Wazzu can do both but the pass game is going to be where they butter their bread. I still maintain the Wazzu defense is one of the more under rated groups in the country and I especially am fond of their DL and run stopping unit which is what they will need here against the vanilla Gopher power run game. Minny just doesn't ahve the horses here - this looks like a major mismatch and I don't think they are going to be just SO physical they overpower a Wazzu team that has shown that is possible. Too many athletes in too good a scheme for Gophers to hang. Like Wazzu by DD here. UPDATE 12/13 - Bet Over 60 slightly smaller to limit exposure after reading about Minny defensive suspensions. Will stand to profit a bit if Under hits but my side possition on Wazzu just went from oustanding to LETHAL. 6-1 last 7, Dog 5-2 ATS last 7. PAC 12 2-5 SU last 7. I bet Wazzu -3 -120 and Under 60 and then over 60 (12/13 with Minny defensive suspension)

Cactus Bowl Baylor/Boise State (Tuesday Dec 27 10:15 Phoenix (Dome*) ESPN) Boise -13.5/66
Boise 6-1 SU in bowls past 7 and played the most dominant football game of the entire 2015 season against NIU in the bowl. Figuring out bowl motivation can be tougher for me than it maybe should be but this is, IMO, the easiest one to figure out. Boise cares about bowls, no matter how much disappontment there could possibly be - they just play well in these games. Baylor has been done for quite sometime and has a lame duck in charge here. It's just not good for them. I didn't see the WVU game but looks like they showed some backbone but that still doesn't lead me to believe they take these three weeks and get serious about winning a mid-tier game. As far as matchups go, Baylor defense just rates to get shredded here by a balanced Boise attack. Throw in the extra prep time and I have no doubt they'll have a great plan and I can't say the same for Baylor who just doesn't look like the same team that won 6 in a row to start the season. Boise wasn't as crisp down the stretch and there were multiple games I watched them let a total inferior team hang around so that is still possible, they just get the benefit of the doubt from me, especially given they are playing a lame duck. I'm sure Grobe cares, it's his final game as a HC but I don't think he can get his other coaches or players to buy in and they have already said their new HC is unlikely to coach this game. Lot of distractions, perhaps for Harsin too with Oregon open so we'll see.. I like for Boise to jump on them early as they have been known to do and Baylor to quit shortly thereafter. UPDATE - Temple HC Matt Rhule hired as Baylor HC. Under 5-2 last 7, Dog 5-2 ATS last 7. I bet Boise -6.5 -120

Pinstripe Bowl: NW/Pitt (Wednesday Dec 28 2:00 New York ESPN) Pitt -1/68
Pitt 1-4 last 5 in bowls. NW 2-10 all time with a win just after WWII and a win two years ago - they were pasted by the Vols last year. NW actually not a bad matchup with Pitt - they can throw it and are pretty good against the run and that is not ideal for Pitt - esp the part about an opponent being able to throw. Pitt has shown they can pass enough and that is certainly the NW weakness and pace should be plenty with the way NW likes to move so this is prob another Pitt shootout. Will be interesting to see how this totaled with NW usually being in the 40's and Pitt in 60's. I think this one is a lot more likely to play 60+ than 40's-. I initially thought I would want to back Pitt but after deeper dive I don't think I do. Got a feeling in my gut that Pitt is super popular and books either clean up or take a bath on that one.. If backing over, weather could definitely be a concern in this game - dogs historically been great in this bowl. Pitt really would benefit from win here to springboard them into nice ranking in 2017. Over 3-3 all time, Dog 6-0 ATS all time (5-1 SU) Look AC prop over.

Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami/WVU (Wednesday Dec 28 5:30 Orlando ESPN) Miami -6.5/48
Miami lost last 6 bowl games! Good news is new regime and Richt is 9-6 in bowls for his career. WVU 2-4 last 6 and winner of a shootout last year against Arizona St. Miami is the better team here. I'm not a fan at all of Big 12 this season and I think if Miami were to have played the WVU schedule they would be going to lot better bowl game. I just am not buying WVU and I think Miami will care here and finally get the Mouse off their back. Pretty sizable athletic edge for Miami here and once WVU can't run the ball and they won't be able to here against a Manny Diaz defense that will sell out to stop it I don't think they have the chops to pass the ball and beat the Canes. Howard was 10-26 passing against Baylor for 111 yards with 58 coming on one pass - take that away and you are looking at 9-25 for 53 yards, AGAINST BAYLOR... Miami should be favored in this game but they won't be and I imagine that WVU will be very popular on bowl pick em sheets as they are ranked and will be either very slight favorite or perhaps even a dog by kickoff? The line tells the tale here I think, Miami in lower scoring game. Under 6-1 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7. ACC 5-2 SU. I bet Miami PICK and Under 56

Foster Farms Bowl: Indiana/Utah (Wednesday Dec 28 8:30 Santa Clara FOX) Utah -6/49
Indiana in 3rd bowl game this Millenia and trying to get first win since 1991 (3-7 all time). B2B bowls for first time in several decades so it should be a big deal. Wilson is gone and new HC and former DC Tom Allen in charge. If there is one thing I know about Utah, they are nasty in bowls. 16-4 SU all time and 12-1 last 13 with their lone loss being to other bowl extraordinaire, Boise St. This is a tall ask for Allen, trying to manage this role as HC and prep for bowl game, just don't think I love it psychologically. Utah it should be business as usual for steady Whittingham and co. Both teams should really benefit with this break as IU played 10 straight without bye and Utah was just decimated by injury all year long so we should get the healthier versions of these teams. Utah solid rushing attack and good stopping the run. Indiana relies on passing attack so that is favorable for them and they are just solid on defense - both against run and pass but prob better against run. Both teams accustomed to playing in tight games. I don't see a ton that really separates these teams on the field - I think the stability of Utah is where I give them a good size edge and this time of year, that is important to me. Should be lower scoring game, even with IU pace. Under 4-3 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7.

Texas Bowl: Kansas State/aTm (Wednesday Dec 28 9:00 Houston ESPN) aTm -10/58
K State stinks in bowl games, 1-7 last 8 and got throttled pretty good by Arky last year. I wish it were anybody else but aTm. I still think aTm wins this one but I just don't feel great as I try to gauge their mental makeup right now. I suppose this a buy low scenario and if they play like we've seen they are capable then taking them laying one score may prove to be a gift. aTm been pretty good lately, 4-1 SU last 5 bowls. They were in a real bad spot against an unknown Lamar Jackson last year and lost a close one. The issue with aTm is their defense but I don't think K State disguising an intramural TE as their starting QB is going to work against these guys with weeks to prepare for it. How in the world are these corners going to try to run with these Ag WR? I don't think they will. Maybe I'm just a sucker for taking SEC speed and athletes against K State but it paid off last year and I think I'll be willing to risk it here again. The Ags offense certainly looked sharp last game against an elite LSU defense and if they get any type of offensive performance similar to that I don't care how bad the defense could be they run K State out of Houston - should be lot of Ags fan in the house - fast track indoors favors aTm. Even if Ags trail by multiple scores their pass offense against K State pass defense still keeps them in this - same can't be said for State. I can't believe I'm gonna play the Ags but at the same time I can and I think there is a chance this is a boat race. Under 5-2, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet aTm -2

Birmingham Bowl: USF/USCe (Thursday Dec 29 2:00 Birmingham ESPN) USF -14/62
My concern here is Taggart. He is being floated to a few open HC gigs and I think he prob means as much to his team as any HC, he is just truly beloved and they see him like a father. If he stays, and I hope he will for one more year, i think they could just drop a hammer on USCe. Not many teams have done it so far, but USF would be the clear winer of the SECE, IMO. I think in a lot of ways they resemble some of what Clemson did so well to USCe, they used a mobile QB to keep them off balance and they just did whatever they wanted. I maybe should have seen that coming considering the week before the QB/RB for Western Carolina presented nightmares for that defense that has played really well all year and hadn't let anyone get past 31 but against mobile QB they gave up 1,000 yards and 87 points in those final 2. I know that staying ranked has been a long term goal for USF and with a win here, esp a convincing one against an SEC foe and they likely get it done. USCe is pretty good on defense but softer in the front 7 and they face, IMO, the nation's best ground game. I think these extra bowl practices will be helpful for the future of USCe football but I don't know how excited or how bad these kids really want to win this game - the target is on their back being an SEC team and standing between the Bulls and a long term goal of being ranked. The problem for USF has and will be the defense - so a USCe offense that has found like with Bentley should do some scoring here esp with their athletes on the edge - USF doesn't defend anything well this year. Normally a G5 would be at talent disadvantage against SEC but prob not here as I would give the speed edge to USF. I am interested in favorite and over. UPDATE - Tag hired at Oregon, co-OC to be interim. Under 5-2 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. SEC 4-0 SU/ATS last 4.

Belk Bowl: VT/Arkansas (Thursday Dec 29 5:30 Charlotte ESPN) VT -6/59
Hogs winners of past two. VT bowls every year and are winners of past 2 and 3-1 last 4. Fuente is 1-0 in his career in bowls - Bert 4-4. I think both teams are moderately happy to be here. VT could be somewhat bummed after losing close game to Clemson but they have certainly exceeded first year expectations. Fun game for me, in a lot of ways VT was last year's Arky for me as I did well on their games and really enjoyed watching them play. VT is certainly the better football team here. I think they matchup pretty well with Arky as their defense tends to struggle with dual threat QB and they won't get in that with Austin Allen. What they will get is a very good QB, which in the ACC you see almost every week. The defense as a whole for VT has been excellent, particularly against the pass. Arkansas is so volatile this season it's a challenge for me to really get a read on which team we will see - throw in this being a bowl and I feel less certain then ever. Going to keep an eye on some props for this game as I don't have a very good feel for game. Under 4-3 last 7, Fav 6-1 last 7

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State/Colorado (Thursday Dec 29 9:00 San Antonio (Dome) ESPN) Col -7.5/58
This is a really tough matchup for Ok St. They are who they are because of their potent passing attack. This is about the worst defense they could get paired against. The Buffs are a top 5 pass defense in adjusted numbers and also right there in sacking the QB. They are senior laden and are fresh off embarrassing Jake Browning who went 9-24 (37.5%) for 118, although his team got the last laugh as Sefo got hurt and the run game bullied the Buffs. I don't see Ok St having the ability to lean on their ground game the way the Huskies did - although the Ok St rush offense is much better than it has been at times in the Gundy era. The thing is, I have such little respect for any defense they faced this season it's hard to really know how good they are but their adjusted numbers are slightly worse than raw so the data concurs. I could go on with my thoughts on other matchups but for me that's why I made the bet - take away the Pokes ability to throw it all over the field and they are a poor rush offense, poor total defense with a good special teams. ST is the only edge that I give to Ok State in the game. Colorado offense has let the team down in both losses this season - to USC and Washington. Both of those games Sefo got hurt, 25 combined total plays for him in those losses. I think both teams will be sorta bummed they aren't playing in the Rose or Sugar Bowl. However, this is a senior maiden group for the Buffs that I believe have really committed to laying a great foundation at a once proud school. This will be the Buffs first bowl since 2007 (against Alabama) and I think the Pokes will be less enthused as this is their 11th in a row and played (embarrassed) in the Sugar Bowl last year by Ole Miss. My two concerns are 1) Sefo health - he has apparently fully recovered from the ankle tweak but he has been a bit fragile and needs his wheels 2) Author of this great defense, Jim Leavitt, will not coach in bowl game as he took the DC gig for Oregon and decided to move on. Thankfully, there is aplenty of play calling experience on the CU staff and I while I don't think they will take much of a step back, if any, it's still an unknown. Pace should be fast and it's indoors but even so I have an under lean but think the side is the better opportunity as Colorado seems cheap to me. Over 5-2 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. I bet Colorado -3 -105

Liberty Bowl: TCU/UGA (Friday Dec 30 Noon Memphis ESPN) PICK/48
UGA perennial bowlers, winners of past 2, 3-1 last 4. TCU same, 2-0 last two and 3-1 last 4 - they were apart of that nuts comeback against Oregon last year which is still one of the more bizarre games I've ever watched. This is a weird game, I think it's going to play out a lot more defensively than many would guess at first blush. I would think both teams are okay with being here - not sure if either had any real pre-season expectation, TCU probably did but the beginning of the season is so long gone and I care so little about Big 12 football I don't remember. I don't like either team's offense, UGA defense is excellent and TCU is under rated, particularly against the pass and should see a much more lame offensive group than what they are used to in conf. May get a shot at under but I think I would want some pretty sizable variance to pull trigger at this point. Over 4-3 last 7, Dog 5-2 ATS last 7.

Sun Bowl: UNC/Stanford (Friday Dec 30 2:00 El Paso CBS) Stanford -8/50
UNC lost last two, LOL at losing in the way they did last season. If that game doesn't epitomize Larry Fedora, I don't know what does (Baylor ran for 600 on them with a DB at QB). Stanford big win in Rose Bowl over Iowa last year and are winners of last 2, 3-1 last 4 and this is rare for them in recent years where they aren't in a top bowl game. They played Foster Farm two years ago and played well so perhaps they will care here and play well. I don't think either team really cares about this game though - both fell way short of expectations and this bowl - yuck. Stanford should run for a ton on UNC here. I wouldn't fault them if they elected not to pass a single time this game - they can likely just line up and pound UNC into dirt for 4Q. Stanford pass defense is much better than raw number's indicate and would be even better than raw+adjusted if both corners were healthy middle of year, particularly against Wazzu and maybe another one or two that escape me - and even with those numbers are outstanding. I've learned this also about UNC, if it's wet at all or cold, they just don't play near as well. Never know what El paso and Sun Bowl will present during bowl season - I seem to recall a blizzard one year. Stanford much better suited to play in the elements even though don't love Cali boys in cold. Total contrast in style and pace here. Over 5-2 last 7, Dog 5-2 ATS last 7. Pac 12 4-1 SU last 5. I bet Stanford +1

Music City Bowl: Nebraska/Tennessee (Friday Dec 30 3:30 Nashville ESPN) Tenn -6.5/65.5
Neb are perennial bowlers but not great 1-1 last 2 and 2-2 last 4 and losers of several in row before that. Tenn 2-0 last two but 2-2 last 4, they obliterated an outmanned NW team last year and that started the hype train that turned into a loot train that's final destination was my wallet. I really wish this wasn't Nebraska, who I think is trash, and I could just fade Tenny again but I can't not against these guys. I guess Vol fans will turn out, it's close to home and even though they can't be happy about thinking they were a legit contender to know playing in this but I bet they turn out and Neb travels well also if memory serves. I think both teams really believed they were good football teams so there could be an equal amount of shock that they are in this game - and I think the argument could be made they were both lucky to even be here - esp Tenn who could really be a 3-9 team if ball bounced a few other ways. The Tenn offense has just exploded the past month though and the defense has imploded - which is super odd to me considering they have a really bad OC and really good DC but that may have something to do with injuries, defensively. Thing is, I don't think the Neb offense is good enough to really take advantage and while their defense is clearly their best unit, I don't think they are in the outstanding camp which is about what it looks like you need to be currently to stop this offense. I have some interest in backing points here again, it's been a money maker for me down the stretch and we may get a decent total that allows it to happen. UPDATE- Armstrong is somewhat ? based on what I read from Mike Riley. My spread and total reflect him at 100% - spread would prob go up a skosh and total down a skosh if he's out, I think. Don't know much about his backup other than he didn't beat out Armstrong for the job... Under 4-3 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. SEC 3-4 SU last 7.

Arizona Bowl: AFA/USA (Friday Dec 30 5:30 Tuscon ASN/CI) AFA -13/55
Second all time trip for USA, 0-1 all time with loss in Camelia 2014. AFA 1-1 last 2 and 1-3 last 4. AFA great rush offense and great rush defense - terrible pass offense and defense. USA terrible rush offense and terrible rush defense - they can pass a little bit, they have weapons that are better relative to their actual production, IMO, and I just don't know how they rate to matchup against option. Don't care about this game and not going to look anymore at it than I have. Under 1-0 all time, Dog 1-0 all time.

Orange Bowl: FSU/Michigan (Friday Dec 30 8:00 Miami ESPN) Michigan -4/47.5
Harbaugh has to enjoy a bowl down in Florida where he has made it a point to recruit. Mich 1-1 last 2 and 2-2 last 4 most recently they demolished a hapless Florida Gator team to the tune of 41-7. Mich is one of those teams that even though they missed out on their goals of beating tOSU, winning B1G and the natty I could actually see them caring about this game. it os the Orange Bowl so it does mean something - could be wrong but that's my guess. I think FSU honestly is pretty content with playing in the OB - their expectations unlikely as high preseason. The first thing I think of when it comes to this game is FSU may really struggle to handle this Mich front. The OL is still a concern for them and they are playing a stout front that has some nice help at the back. The FSU defense was able to overcome the plethora of talented offense they faced to start the season and ended up becoming a nice defense. I don't have a lot of respect for the Michigan offense and I think relative to several of the talented ACC offenses they faced, this should provide some relief. The Mich offense started out as a goliath but never surpassed 310 yards offense or 20 points in regulation in their final 3 games (Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State). I lean under here if I can get a mid to high 50's total. Under 4-3 last 7, Dog 5-2 SU/ATS last 7. ACC 4-0 SU last 4. I bet Under 56.5

Citrus Bowl: LSU/Louisville (Saturday Dec 31 11:00 Orlando ABC) LSU -4.5/50
LSU 1-1 last 2 and 2-2 last 4 - they blasted TT last year. Ville 1-1 last 2 and 3-1 past 4 - neither team has played in a significant bowl since Ville in 2012 and LSU in 2011. While both teams had loftier expectations, I think we see max effort from both teams - their respective opponents should excite and bring out the best from both. I love Dave Aranda to come up with a game plan to stop Lamar here. While Hurts and Alabama are a diff beast, you could clearly see in that game that he wasn't going to be afforded the opportunity to get an edge and run on that defense - the plan almost worked to perfection but Bama made 3 plays on offense and that was ultimately enough behind the suffocating defensive effort by Tide D. Between the Todd Orlando blitz blueprint against LJ and the wide DE contain used against the Tide I think LSU has the potential plan and certainly the athletes to really limit LJ. He is also going to be coming off his Heisman win and all that goes along with that and fading the Heisman winner is usually a profitable bowl strategy. No way the Ville OL can hold up here against a team full of Ed Olivers. The problem for LSU will be moving the football, esp with as talented as Ville is against the run. I think Kentucky put some real nice stuff on tape though for LSU to use on how to attack. I expect this game to be more of a grinder though. I think the game will be totaled way too high so there will be an under opportunity as well as way to back LSU. Over 5-2 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. SEC 5-2 SU last 7. I bet LSU PICK and Under 61

Taxslayer Bowl: GT/UK (Saturday Dec 31 11:00 Jacksonville ESPN) UK -1/58.5
GT missed bowl game last year and are 1-1 past 2 and 2-2 past 4 with a long string of losses prior to that. Here is something I noticed about GT in bowl games - they have played in 7 under Paul Johnson and have averaged more than 1 ypp less in bowl games than their season average - only once, 2014, have they had a better output in this game than they averaged for season. UK first bowl since 2010 and haven't won since '08. They've come so close past several years and finally did it this year, playing outstanding football down stretch - they were arguably one of best teams in SECE to close year. Big time kudos to their OC, Eddie Gran, who just did as good a job calling plays as anybody in country this year - he found what worked and he did it unabashedly and that is a lot more rare than it should be, IMO. I think both teams are going to really do whatever they want to one another. I don't see either team having the chops to stop the other from running down each other's throats. Concern betting over in game like this is slow pace and a clock that is just gonna churn but I think the matchups certainly warrant it and weather should be dandy in Jacksonville. Upon further review, I think that Stoops experience at FSU against this offense and extra prep time do give UK more of an edge than I had anticipated in my initial cap. Under 5-2 last 7, Fav 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet Kentucky +4 smaller

Peach Bowl: Washington/Alabama (Saturday Dec 31 3:00 Atlanta (Dome) ESPN) Bama -8.5/56.5
Bama been good in championship games under Saban and Peterson has shown his chops over his career that he is equally outstanding in these types of games. While Bama doesn't usually struggle with pro-style offenses, I think they prob haven't played many pro style offenses with an inventive scheme, talented QB and nice group of WR like they are going to see here. Arkansas showed that a pro style team with a good QB, WR and plan can get this Bama defense. The cause for pause on Washington would be the way that USC dominated them physically - that could certainly be what happens here. I think to have success on Bama you need to go for lot of chunk plays and they strike me as the team that can dial up those types of shots. You look at the offense and they have scored 31 every game expect for that black mark of 13 against the Trojans. Bama has kept everybody to 16 or less except Ole Miss and Arkansas who feature the most comparable passing prowess to what Wash presents. I think the current line of 17 is pretty absurd but not sure I want to bet against Bama purely from the human element.

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State/Clemson (Saturday Dec 31 7:00 Glendale (Dome) ESPN) Clemson -4/59
Clemson lost in CFP final to Bama last year but winners of 4 straight prior to that. Dabo is awesome against Top 25 and in championship games. Meyer no slouch either - winners of last 3. For me this is simple, Ohio State doesn't have the offense to hang here, they are too limited in the passing game to outduel a good Tiger defense and Watson-led offense. I trust Urban will have a better plan to put JT in position to make plays but I've seen enough and believe he has regressed enough to know that their one dimensional offense just won't cut it against any of the teams left in the CFP. Love the tOSU defense but I think they are too limited offensively. I trust Watson to make the plays when they are needed. I bet Clemson +3.5

Outback Bowl: Florida/Iowa (Monday Jan 2 Tampa 1:00 ABC) Florida -2.5/35
Iowa lost last 4. UF 1-1 last 2 and 2-2 last 4 - most recently they got killed by Michigan last year and Iowa got killed by Stanford. Both offenses here are atrocious and neither look equipped to get past 20. The Iowa offense to me most closely resembles the UGA offense at the time they played UF and they scored 10 on 164 yards offense. The Florida offense has better athletes on the perimeter and as good as King is, there is only one of him. The issue for Iowa is they lack so any athletes on edge and the UF defense is just so so talented they can load the box and have no problem covering those guys out wide with no help. If Iowa tries to do same, prob more issues as the skill guys are fast for Gators. I don't know if either team cares, Iowa football fans are odd breed, I got firsthand reports that they didn't care at all while in Rose Bowl being thrashed by Stanford LY, they were genuinely just happy to be there. Not the same deal here as this is not the RB but I just don't know if they will care, I'm sure fans will go hang in Florida for few days as opposed to Iowa in December. Florida unlikely to care much either as a fanbase or as team. I don't know.. Over 5-2 last 7, Dog 4-3 ATS last 7

Cotton Bowl: WMU/Wisconsin (Monday Jan 2 Dallas 1:00 ESPN) Wisconsin -10/59
Both teams prob happy to be here - WMU bowling for 3rd year in row and got first bowl win in history last year in Bahamas. Wisconsin won past two but lost 4 straight prior. Biggest bowl for them since 2012 although they may not be super excited about playing a MAC team. WMU has one main deficiency, IMO, they aren't strong nor beefy on the DL. Welp, can't think of a worse matchup to lack in those areas. I suppose WMU will just sell out big time and blitz with LB's and while i don't like the Wisky pass game at all, it should be pretty simple to find open guys if they have to load the box or get run over and through for 4Q. I do think that the WMU passing attack can have some success but their zone read they like to run and just lean on teams with - it's gonna be tough sledding against the Wisky front. I think if Fleck is wise he sees the writing on the wall and adopts more of the Penn State plan where you just chuck it - I would target Davis 25 or 30 times. The good news is Wisconsin is not the most athletic team that WMU could see here that could present a lot of issues in their own right - however, the matchup is so tough because this team is full of big uglies that can maul on both sides and that just goes against what has allowed WMU to be so successful. This will be the slowest paced game of bowl season on paper but I think the matchup favor a good bit of scoring and from a pace standpoint my total is crazy but I just really feel it in my gut. I will be looking at CD props and possibly going over. Under 4-3 last 7, Fav 5-2 ATS last 7. I bet Over 54

Rose Bowl: USC/Penn State (Monday Jan 2 Pasadena 5:00 ESPN) USC -6/62
This is prob one of my fav matchups of the premiere bowls. USC is 1-1 last 2 and 2-2 last 4. Hard to believe their last Rose Bowl win was 2008 against Penn State 38-24. Penn State is 1-1 last 2 and 1-3 last 4. First big bowl for them also since '08. Two things worth mentioning - USC QB Sam Darnolds grandpa was the actual Marlboro man in the 1970's. Secondly, he was aptly named Dick Hammer. If that doesn't tell you everything you need to know about how and why USC has turned it around then I don't know... I wish I knew more about Trace McSorleys family but all I know is he is awesome. I do like both defenses but I don't think either team have much of a chance to really holding the other down. USC prob more consistent offensively and that is why I would give them the edge in the game - PSU is feast or famine and if they are hitting big plays the offense is a juggernaut and if not they are just kinda blah (See the B1G title game for perfect summation of Penn State) Penn State is best 2H team in country and USC one of best 1H teams. So I suppose it would make sense to go USC 1H and then look for Penn State 2H - let's see if I'm disciplined enough to follow the data..? Over 4-3 last 7, Fav 4-3 ATS last 7. PAC 12 4-2 SU last 6

Sugar Bowl: Auburn/Oklahoma (Monday Jan 2 New Orleans 8:30 (Dome) ESPN) Oklahoma -6/63
Auburn has to be thrilled to be here. It was a serious question this summer whether or not this team would make a bowl game this year/ Fortunately for them they get a Big 12 defense here. Unfortunately for them they get a Big 12 offense. Malzahn says White will be full force ready to go for game after shoulder injury in which he missed aAm and Bama games. Without him, they get creamed here. I'm assuming he plays and is full strength. Auburn very tough to run on defensively and their DL should cause problems here. On the other side, even with White under center they throw it about like a triple option team so not much threat there but at least White gives them a threat to run and keeps defenses from putting 9 in box. Auburn first 8 win team in Sugar Bowl since 1991. SEC 1-4 SU last 5. Oklahoma is fortunate to have a guy like Mayfield who can allude pressure and makes school yard plays as well as anybody in country. Carlton Davis is a nice corner but he can't hang with Dede Westbrook here. Too much firepower on offense for Ok here against a brutally one dimensional Auburn offense that could bully Oklahoma but I don't think they have the horses on offense to keep up. Over 5-2 last 7, Fav 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet Ok -2.5 -120


CFP Final: (Monday Jan 9 Tampa 8:30 ESPN)
 
Last edited:
Some quick notes and thoughts I have on the bowls above. I will revisit all the games over the next few weeks but these are my preliminary thoughts and it's certainly subject to change
 
Alabama's 2nd and 3rd string QBs are transferring. Not sure if they will wait until after the playoffs. Scary depth chart for next season. Hurts better practice in bubble wrap
 
gps_3 said:
Alabama's 2nd and 3rd string QBs are transferring. Not sure if they will wait until after the playoffs. Scary depth chart for next season. Hurts better practice in bubble wrap
Click to expand...

I saw a funny tweet earlier:

[FONT=&quot]Adam Kramer ‏@KegsnEggs <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 33 minutes ago</small>[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]TAMPA - Backup Alabama quarterback Jonathan Allen, called into action, threw the game-winning touchdown in the national championship.
[/FONT]
 
Ck in post #81 you say you bet Auburn -2 1/2 . Is that right ?
Thanks, I thought OU was the fav.
 
CrimsonK said:
Here are the bowl sides I have bet so far - Will hopefully get totals later - been capping 7 hours straight, end almost near, eyes and brain hurt..

Houston -3
Memphis +7
ODU +1
Troy -2.5 -120
Vanderbilt +4 (smaller)
Washington State -3 -120
Boise State -6.5 -120
Miami PICK
aTm -2
Stanford +1
LSU PICK
Clemson +3.5
Oklahoma -2.5 -120
Click to expand...

Thanks for kind words, bull. I bet Oklahoma -2.5 not Aub I wrote it wrong in later post, thanks for pointing that out!
 
bull said:
if you don't mind, Twinkie, I would like to second that. :cheers3:

And cheers also for gps, who gets this thread underway every week. :shake2:
Click to expand...

Thanks bull, but this is basically CKs thread now. I don't put the time into capping and betting that I used to. Just a busy time in my life, but enjoy reading all the discussions and still place the occasional wager.
 
Armed Forces Bowl: La Tech/Navy (Friday Dec 23 4:30 Ft. Worth ESPN)
LT -6.5/68.5
La Tech 2-0 last two and Navy 3-0 last 3. Not real sure how to adjust Navy with their injuries - they certainly didn't improve as a team with the losses they suffered late. I don't how LT will do against the option here - my guess is not great. However, LT is real bad against pass and good against run so maybe they will be okay. I know this, they are going to love playing this Navy defense! Last game seeing Temple WR just running totally free is extremely ominous against a much more athletic LT offense that has nation's most explosive offense. Total could be enormous. Navy will prob be the favorite here and if so I would be happy to play LT - Navy is a fraud. I believe they will be motivated and can't say same for Navy who dealt with roller coaster final couple weeks and dealing with disappointing of missing out on G5 bid although benefit of doubt to servicemen. Service academies haven't done particularly well historically in this bowl, contrary to what I expected to find out. Navy pass defense is dreadful and that is where LT will torch them. Seems like one of the first game here where I really like the prospect of a dog. Navy without much of a break here and while I'm betting this before they play Army, if they lose and they very well could, I think I lose some value on the number. If they win, not a very high risk move to bet early because beating Army is par for course so a loss damages LT line value while a win does very little, IMO. Perhaps by betting early I miss LT as a 3 pt dog but I like them to win SU anyway so I'll take a +$ while I can. I like reading what Holtz has to say about the bowl and he always interests me as a dog. Under 4-3 last 7, dog 4-3 ATS last 7. I bet La Tech ML +103
 
Just wanted to commemorate the 10 year anniversary of RR turning down Bama job...

To think 'what if' in the CFB landscape.
 
B.A.R. said:
Just wanted to commemorate the 10 year anniversary of RR turning down Bama job...

To think 'what if' in the CFB landscape.
Click to expand...


Ten years ago today, possibly the most important moment in Alabama football history took place in West Virginia.
No, it wasn’t the day Nick Saban, a West Virginia native, said yes to replacing Mike Shula. It was the day West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez said no.
Rodriguez’s decision to stay in Morgantown considerably changed the futures of at least three college football programs. It has become the source of one of college football’s greatest what-if questions especially given Alabama’s success in the last decade.
Just how close Rodriguez came to taking the Alabama job has long been debated, but those directly involved in the search say he made it clear he was on board leading the Crimson Tide.
On the 10-year anniversary of his decision to stay at West Virginia, AL.com looks back at what happened between Rodriguez and Alabama and the long-lasting effects of that day.
The pursuit of Rich Rod
Alabama already swung and missed on Saban and Steve Spurrier when it set its sights on Rodriguez.
Rodriguez was coming off a 10-2 regular season at West Virginia and viewed as one of the country’s hottest offensive minds. He made it clear he didn’t want to discuss any potential jobs during the regular season, setting up a December meeting with Alabama in New York.
Alabama athletic director Mal Moore and search consultant Chuck Neinas headed up to New York to meet with Rodriguez. The Alabama contingent quickly expressed how interested they were in Rodriguez, and the West Virginia coach more than reciprocated.
“Rodriguez was very, very interested in the position,” Neinas said, “and basically gave a verbal acceptance of it.”
The two sides agreed to reconvene a few days later in Tuscaloosa to work out the final details of the contract. Rodriguez had a commitment in Jacksonville on Dec. 7, leaving his agent Mike Brown to negotiate with Moore in Tuscaloosa.
The news of Rodriguez’s impending deal didn’t take long to reach Ian Rapoport. Then a young Alabama beat writer for the Birmingham News, Rapoport worked his sources hard and was told definitively Rodriguez would be the next Alabama head coach. The two sides had agreed in principle on all the key elements including which coaches would join Rodriguez’s Alabama staff. All they had to do was sign on the dotted line.
After Rapoport had consulted with his editors, The Birmingham News published the exclusive scoop that Rodriguez had agreed in principle to become Alabama’s next coach. Before long, Rapoport’s name was splashed on ESPN’s bottom line as the one who broke the big news. ESPN and other major outlets later confirmed his report that night.
“Biggest story and I break it,” Rapoport said. “One of the best moments of my life.”
Rapoport went out for a few celebratory beers with another beat writer, soaking up the end of an exhaustive coaching search. Later that night he noticed Rodriguez told a local West Virginia beat writer not to believe all the reports. Rapoport checked with a few sources who admitted a little concern about Rodriguez having to face his team in Morgantown and deliver the news, but insisted everything would be good.
The next day, Rapoport checked in with a source close to Rodriguez who was in the coach’s house as the Rodriguez family was packing to move to Tuscaloosa. The moving process was in motion, and it looked to be a formality.
Neinas, who was paid $35,000 to help on the search, called Moore that day to check on how the negotiating was going, expecting to hear of a done deal. The Alabama athletic director was a little concerned.
“Well, the coach’s attorney is in his car in the driveway, and he’s been on the phone for a half hour,” Moore told Neinas.
A minute later, Moore interrupted the conversation.
“Uh oh, he’s getting out of the car now, and it doesn’t look good,” he said. “I’ll call you back.”
Said Neinas: “I’ll never forget that.”
Rapoport, still feeling good about his big scoop, was sitting on his couch waiting for Rodriguez to deliver the news to his team and make his way to Tuscaloosa. While watching a live shot of the proceedings in Morgantown, he saw an image that made him sick to his stomach: West Virginia players were cheering and celebrating.
“If I could possibly communicate to you how horrible and miserable a feeling it was to hear everyone celebrating and know it all came crashing down,” Rapoport said. “It was still the worst feeling I’ve ever had.”
He was soon on the receiving end of death threats, nasty emails and a public callout from Paul Finebaum. “It was really vile, horrible stuff,” he said. “I was public enemy number one.”
After Rodriguez’s public denial, Moore took the rare step of issuing a statement acknowledging the snub.
“I received word this afternoon that Coach Rodriguez has chosen to remain the head football coach at West Virginia,” Moore said. “I fully respect his decision and wish him the best. I want to remind everyone of what I said at the outset of this process: my only objective is to get the best person available to lead the Alabama football program.”
“He’d probably still be Alabama’s coach”
There are numerous theories as to why Rodriguez backed out of a verbal agreement to coach Alabama.
The most popular theory, at least on the Internet, is Rodriguez’s wife, Rita, put the kibosh on moving to Tuscaloosa. The theory goes that Rita Rodriguez heard Finebaum making fun of her on his show, and was turned off by the idea of having to deal with that on a consistent basis. Finebaum has long disputed the claim - he even addressed it in his book “My Conference Can Beat Your Conference” - and said it came from a rival radio host and message boards. Rapoport, who had a source inside the proceedings, said Rodriguez’s wife was absolutely on board.
“She was coming,” he said. “They were all coming. He just changed his mind and stayed.”
Rodriguez, who wasn’t made available for this story, has always denied it was ever a done deal. In a 2013 interview with Campus Insiders, Rodriguez said it was “close, ” but he never agreed to a deal.
“We talked a little bit, and they offered the job,” Rodriguez said. “I was obviously very flattered and doing my due diligence, but never once did I say I was going to take the job.
“If my agent at the time had said, ‘He’s very, very interested. I think he’s going to do it,’ he may have said that, but he was never told by my direction to say that. I don’t think he did. But I think there was an assumption that ‘He’s going to go from West Virginia and take that Alabama job. Are you kidding me?’ And I didn’t. I never told them I was going to take it.”
The actual truth is West Virginia mega boosters, including Arizona Diamondbacks managing partner Ken Kendrick, asked Rodriguez Dec. 7 what it’d take to get him to stay. By the next day, West Virginia and its boosters were offering him a big raise and facility improvements.
Rapoport believes he may have unwittingly played a part in Rodriguez’s decision to the detriment of his report.
“I know that reporting it that night gave West Virginia boosters an opportunity to raise money and get Rich Rodriguez a new contract,” he said. “If I stayed quiet and he just went to tell his team the next day, my guess is he’d probably still be Alabama’s coach.”
What if?
A lot has changed in 10 years.
Rodriguez spent one more year at West Virginia before leaving for Michigan, leading to an acrimonious lawsuit and fight back home in Morgantown. Michigan fired him in 2010 after he went 15-22 in three seasons which included NCAA violations that led to the school going on probation. He resurfaced in 2012 at Arizona where he has had a solid amount of success.
Rodriguez admitted in 2013 he still thought about his decision to turn down Alabama.
“Sometimes I forget because I do try to move on,” he said. “All the things that have happened, the twists and turns of life, I’m sure I would have loved it there.”
Nearly a month after Rodriguez said no, Moore finally convinced Saban to leave the Miami Dolphins for Alabama. Moore famously told Saban if didn’t say yes; he couldn’t go back to Alabama.
“I think I’ll just have them take me down to Cuba,” Saban recalled Moore saying years later.
After the deal was complete, Saban, his wife Terry and Moore jumped on a plane from Miami to Tuscaloosa for the new coach’s introductory press conference. Moore later told Neinas as they were in the air, Saban turned to his new boss and made only one promise.
“I just want you to know you’ve hired a horseshit football coach,” Saban told Moore. “But nobody will out-recruit me.”
Not only did the recruiting part prove prophetic—the Tide has landed the nation’s top recruiting class six times since 2007 per 247Composite—but Saban launched one of the most dominant college football dynasties ever. In the decade since the decision, he’s won five SEC championships and four national championships, with another possibly on the way next month.
At the rate he’s going, Saban has a good chance to become the greatest college football coach ever. And if Rodriguez hadn’t said no 10 years ago, who knows where Alabama is now? Saban could have spent a few more years in the NFL. He easily could have ended up at a different SEC school if he ever returned to the college game. The what-if possibilities are endless; Alabama and college football forever altered by one man changing his mind at the last-second.
Rapoport, now the NFL Network’s national insider, thinks he deserves at least a little credit for Alabama’s dominant run.
“I tell people that whenever it comes up,” he said with a laugh, “and everyone is like, ‘Yeah, whatever.’”
 
GPS - what are you thinking about type of game that plays out with Bama/UW? I think when I first handicapped it I was envisioning more of a shootout but the more I think about it I think it has the recipe to be really low scoring. Curious to hear your early take?

Jimmy - if you read this wold love to hear from a UW standpoint also
 
Some FCS playoff games I played:

Friday:
James Madison -2.5
Sam Houston State/James Madison Under 90.5

Saturday:
North Dakota State -6.5
Richmond/Eastern Washington Under 65.5
 
CrimsonK said:
GPS - what are you thinking about type of game that plays out with Bama/UW? I think when I first handicapped it I was envisioning more of a shootout but the more I think about it I think it has the recipe to be really low scoring. Curious to hear your early take?

Jimmy - if you read this wold love to hear from a UW standpoint also
Click to expand...
how
much do we look at what USC did to UW?
 
CrimsonK said:
GPS - what are you thinking about type of game that plays out with Bama/UW? I think when I first handicapped it I was envisioning more of a shootout but the more I think about it I think it has the recipe to be really low scoring. Curious to hear your early take?

Jimmy - if you read this wold love to hear from a UW standpoint also
Click to expand...

I feel like I'm too much of a homer to give good analysis on Alabama. Low scoring is my initial impression, but we've seen all year where games are low scoring and the the floodgates open in the 2nd half and Alabama wins going away. The nervous fan in me could envision a scenario where UW hits a few big plays, forces Hurts into some mistakes, and its tight in the 4th quarter and comes down to field goals which is not a good scenario for us. I would definitely not be laying the points here. Though I really like our defense to limit anyone we play. A lot is being said about Peterson getting a month to prepare, but so do we, and rarely have been unprepared for a big game. Early guess is 35-20, but could talk myself into 24-23 or 44-6
 
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