SEC Postseason Thread

Nice coaching job by Arkansas, jeebus you think they might run a draw or a screen in the 2h when VT blitzing every play. I've seen it all this bowl season now getting beat on over by kid fumbling into the end zone for a TB.
 
CrimsonK said:
Ok St 2H TT Over 13.5 -120

Surprised 5d didn't go with 14 or 14+. Colorado essentially down 2 of their better defenders in the secondary, can't pressure passer and Washington is making a laughingstock of the Buffs as a whole. In a perfect world they score 14 and lose 35-31. Colorado could do nothing on offense and I would have a strong lean to Ok St +3.5 in 2H also. Colorado looks disinterested and is a mess with injury having Montez under center
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I like your thoughts there and played 14 +100, GL Crimson.
 
That's a brutal way to lose, Tim. One of the more bizarre games I can remember in a bowl season full of them. Going to make for a long off season for the Hogs to do that two games in a row. Them an Ole Miss found amazing ways to choke away games in 2H (sorry grove).
 
CrimsonK said:
That's a brutal way to lose, Tim. One of the more bizarre games I can remember in a bowl season full of them. Going to make for a long off season for the Hogs to do that two games in a row. Them an Ole Miss found amazing ways to choke away games in 2H (sorry grove).
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You really have to question whether Bielema is fit as a head coach after watching that second half shit show. Allen is such a good player, and they just let him down with their terrible play calling. He's lucky he didn't get hurt out there, with some of that ole blocking that was going on. At some point, you have to try and mitigate the consistent blitzing. I just can't believe i watched that shit...bad enough to lose but what bothers me is how poorly coached the team was in that second half.
 
Timh said:
You really have to question whether Bielema is fit as a head coach after watching that second half shit show. Allen is such a good player, and they just let him down with their terrible play calling. He's lucky he didn't get hurt out there, with some of that ole blocking that was going on. At some point, you have to try and mitigate the consistent blitzing. I just can't believe i watched that shit...bad enough to lose but what bothers me is how poorly coached the team was in that second half.
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25-26 overall record, 10-22 in the SEC. Good thing he's a good quote.
 
Not sure twink. I believe the first shop that opened was 5d and TCU was -4.5 but Georgia took early money and now it's ebbing back that way. It's kinda a dangerous game basing conference perception to what we've seen so far but for me the SEC has greatly underwhelmed and Big 12 has majorly over performed relative to both my expectations and the point spreads. Let's not forget that Georgia is a really bad football team from the worst division of any P5 conf. Gun to my head I'm on dogs and under but I doubt I bet it personally
 
Tcu is like the Virginia Tech of the South this year. So inconsistent. You just don't know wtf you're going to get imo.
 
Independence Bowl Prop:

Terry Godwin Over 3 catches -115/-135

Bet this a couple times. Really like this one. While TCU pass defense is much better than raw numbers indicate they still have given up some yardage and opportunities. Georgia will be without two of their top 5 targets (Chigbu and Ridley) so Godwin should get more looks than normal. Godwin is only 5'11 but Georgia has a real small WR group without Ridley and Chigbu and Godwin better candidate on jump ball type stuff than McKenzie. Godwin #1 in targets for Dawgs. He has had 3 or more grabs in 6 straight and in 9/11 for year. Looks like TCU selling out to stop run from the commentary I read so may be bit more passing than we are accustomed to.
 
CrimsonK said:
USF will want to go super fast and they will. I get the sense that USCe will take the MOH approach and slow this way down against a team that loves tempo. I could be wrong, maybe they do Wake/BC and decide to implement the hurry up and if they do then I prob got a loser. Agree it's dicey with the way teams have broken tendencies



Glad the Canes worked out and the chips were in the middle. Saved my week.

Congrats on the win. The Ags staff was thoroughly whipped by the Snyders in that game. I had pretty big bet on aTm so that one hurt, managed to take longest TD over 52 to make little back but that one hurt me overall. I suppose my biggest errors in capping that one were that the Ags athletes would be too much for K St when the reality is K St is out athleted 10 weeks a year and secondly I put my faith in Sumlin to have his team prepared. That guy's gone after next year, I'd think.
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It comes down to , you can have talent on the outside and in the backfield, but if your line is too young and can't block, it's over.
Double edge sword with Sumlin. We'll lose recruits when he leaves, but him making a career off of JFF has reached it's end.
We could be good next year if all our Jr's come back, but then you're inexperienced at QB. Still young on the line too.
Not sure Martel will be the next Jalen Hurts.
 
Hey crimson,
give me some brief info on the remaining games today. Any possible props?
that Air Force game total is dropping, I see that game getting into the 60s. But I have been awful lately.
 
dudleysdad said:
Hey crimson,
give me some brief info on the remaining games today. Any possible props?
that Air Force game total is dropping, I see that game getting into the 60s. But I have been awful lately.
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I have no idea on Air Force game - gun to my head I would lay the points or go AFA TT Ov? S Al can't stop the run.

Tenn and over would be my leans I bought Tenn cheap over a week ago. I just played a prop there:

Alvin Kamara Over 109.5 rushing + receiving -115

FSU and Under are late game leans. I have a couple props I may play in that game - not sure yet looking at options now
 
dudleysdad said:
Hey crimson,
give me some brief info on the remaining games today. Any possible props?
that Air Force game total is dropping, I see that game getting into the 60s. But I have been awful lately.
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Been rough bowl season, but aren't they all when you play every one of em like us huh lol
 
Got one Peach Bowl prop that I didn't have to cap for too long. More to come, prob.


Myles Gaskin Under 80.5 rushing yards -120
 
Lamar Jackson Under 277.5 passing yards -120
Lamar Jackson Under 127.5 rushing yards -120

Dedrick Mills Over 52.5 rushing yards -120
 
The Jackson prop I'm betting he doesn't have 400+ yards total offense against this defense. I'm pretty sure no player in history of cfb has ever had that against LSU. This bet is mainly based on my belief that there is little chance the Ville OL can handle the LSU front. Houston sacked him 10 times and held him to 33 rushing yards and I expect similar issues for that group here. Aranda with a month to prep and LJ spent most of December flying around to award shows. He isn't a polished enough passer to put up this type of number especially when LSU pace wise is slowest moving Ville will have seen all year so we could see one or two less possessions. Although it wouldn't surprise me to see LSU mix in some hurry up.

Dedrick Mills is the most talented player on GT. He has missed several games this year due to concussion and suspension but is ready to go here and will be the feature guy on offense in 2017. He is the B back so he should be getting pitches on perimeter and I think that spell really bad news for Kentucky who has a poor Rush defense. I think mills could win this bet on one carry but I hope he gets plenty more to be safe. Gone over this number in 7 of 8. Added incentive I like is his fellow B back has announced he is transferring next season to soon to be FCS champion James Madison so he could see less touches in this game because coach is pissed at him? Not sure, just a thought. Either way, I think mills goes for 100+
 
The Washington 1Q TT is based on my belief that the 1Q is where Washington holds their greatest advantage in the game. Bama is a very poor offensive team in the 1Q and it usually takes them a while to get going. Washington having scripted many of their early plays, prob somewhere between 10-20 of them is where I think they can beat Bama on some big plays. I don't necessarily think that is sustainable for 4Q and I do think Baa's talent and depth win out in the end but I'm betting Washington can score here early and it may cash the long TD prop as well. The thing I'm most scared of as Bama fan are the trick plays and big chunk pass plays.
 
GL today, think we're seeing pretty similar. Joined you on the Jackson rushing prop and certainly a great get on Mills, mine is at 62.5 and while I still think he likely gets that, I'll likely get the team total involved. Agree on the 1Q in the Sugar Bowl, hadn't thought about playing it that way but good reasoning for sure.
 
pressitup said:
It comes down to , you can have talent on the outside and in the backfield, but if your line is too young and can't block, it's over.
Double edge sword with Sumlin. We'll lose recruits when he leaves, but him making a career off of JFF has reached it's end.
We could be good next year if all our Jr's come back, but then you're inexperienced at QB. Still young on the line too.
Not sure Martel will be the next Jalen Hurts.
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I thought he decommitted and then committed to Ohio State.
 
Who's the former walk on WR on Clemson? Renfroe? Would think he'd be a good prop bet over on catches and yards. He was awesome last year against OU and Alabama. Watson definitely trusts him
 
Crimson I'm tailing your Jackson and Gaskins props today at not quite as good of numbers. Thanks for the thoughts there, really solid. BOL today and Happy New Year.
 
gps_3 said:
Who's the former walk on WR on Clemson? Renfroe? Would think he'd be a good prop bet over on catches and yards. He was awesome last year against OU and Alabama. Watson definitely trusts him
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Ya, he torched us. He's been quiet for past few games and just isn't targeted very much - only 43 targets (8.3% target rate) but missed 4 games. I don't know if they will put out a number for him in this game. As good as tOSU secondary is, I don't know if there is a DB in America that can really cover Mike Williams.
 
Twink - Are we sure Coach O can manage a game better than Les? I'm sure he has room to grow but several games thus far in his tenure he has shown he is equally as clueless. What a stupid idea to not take the 13 pt lead to the break.
 
CrimsonK said:
Twink - Are we sure Coach O can manage a game better than Les? I'm sure he has room to grow but several games thus far in his tenure he has shown he is equally as clueless. What a stupid idea to not take the 13 pt lead to the break.
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No, we don't....this was our fear. I really don't think he knows what he is doing.
Quite scary. Look, nothing short of remarkable what is about to be pulled off recruiting wise.....seriously

But as far as a game coach.....me not like
 
damn, my shop has Gaskin prop at 70.5 and juiced -150 to the under. Like your number but I can't play what I have. Most of the yards he gets will be early IMO. Once Bama gets up they will be throwing more.
 
I actually would be sort of surprised if he gets the overwhelming bulk of their carries - I tend to think Coleman gets quite a few and they try to get some other gadget run plays. I didn't fact check it but maybe 5 guys have run for 80+ against Bama since Saban has been there and certainly none that prob won't get more than 15 totes
 
ya, good point on gadget plays. They'll throw the kitchen sink at Bama given the talent disparity. Have to assume that could/will cost Gaskin a run or two.
 
They really didn't even try to run it too much, P. Can't blame them - there was really nothing they could do and him running it for no gain or 2 yards wasn't high upside. Ended up being easy.

CFP Championship:

Alabama/Clemson Under 54.5
 
CrimsonK said:
One for Rose Bowl:

USC 1H -4 -105

Will look to go USC 1H and PSU 2H
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saw your post on this earlier and ran 1H numbers on both teams

USC 10-2 1H ATS 2017 (including last 9), aggregate cover margin 110.5
PSU 4-9 1H ATS 2017, aggregate failure margin of 85.5
 
Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around more, but as it has been all year, CrimsonK has more than picked up the slack. Been a weird end of the year for me, been slammed at home and work, not much time to get my thoughts put together. Slow day at the office today, wish I hadn't opened it up, but I'm here, I have coffee, and there's internet and cable up and running
 
Any reason to think UF-Iowa breaks 30 points? Or does this turn into one of those unexplainable shootouts?

Lean W. Mich, USC and Oklahoma for the rest of the games today. Like that USC 1H bet CK, may follow
 
BiffTFinancial said:
saw your post on this earlier and ran 1H numbers on both teams

USC 10-2 1H ATS 2017 (including last 9), aggregate cover margin 110.5
PSU 4-9 1H ATS 2017, aggregate failure margin of 85.5
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Awesome. Sounds like you have a great database also. That's one thing I lack in my arsenal. Appreciate the data.
 
gps_3 said:
Any reason to think UF-Iowa breaks 30 points? Or does this turn into one of those unexplainable shootouts?

Lean W. Mich, USC and Oklahoma for the rest of the games today. Like that USC 1H bet CK, may follow
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Glad to see ya back in the fray. I think the Florida offense is actually going to pass the ball pretty well. Iowa weak at corner behind King, who is great, and Florida isn't going to be able to run so maybe a bit different approach from them. I see Florida maybe pulling a Wake/BC here and going tempo some and really just throwing it around. It's confirmed all of Florida's LB will be out after Anzalone tried to go but now won't. Iowa gonna run it 50 times just not sure how it will go - I know this, they likely won't pass for 100 yards. I'm taking some props now as one of my books just put them out.
 
Outback props:
Antonio Callaway Over 56.5 receiving yards -120
Brandon Powell Over 31.5 receiving yards -120
CJ Beathard Under 15.5 completions -120

Cotton props:
Jarvion Franklin Under 88.5 rushing yards -120
 
Outback prop thoughts:

Florida run game just petered out in final games. Tough defense to run against here when I'm very confident the Iowa defensive staff will have elected to sell out to stop the run and make Appleby win with his arm. We saw it in the SECCG that Florida can throw a little bit when they scheme for it - Appleby was 26/39 for 261. Lot of pressure on coach Mac here to show signs of life on offense in the bowl game and I think that happens via the pass game. Callaway a better athlete than any WR I can think of in the B1G and from reading the pre game the beat writers don't expect King to shadow him exclusively. If he doesn't then the other guys can't cover him. Powell is the underneath guy that was a focal point in the SECCG as he is the 2nd most targeted WR behind ACal but he had 9 grabs on the underneath stuff. Read several articles where Appleby referenced where they were very happy they found him his niche and I expect that to again be a part of this plan. He is a water bug and if he gets a screen or slant he can cash this on a catch. Florida has, IMO, one of if not the best pass defenses in the country. Iowa has, IMO, one of if not the worst pass offenses in the country. Iowa pretty much abandoned ship on the pass game down stretch - CJ was 8/19, 9/17 and 10/15 for 288 yards in final three - the 288 isn't one game - that's cumulative... Florida has only given up 16+ completions twice this season (16, 18) and a bunch of farm guys from Iowa don't worry me too much against three NFLers in the secondary. Florida missing tons of production at LB and I expect Iowa to run it 50 times and may not even pass it 16 times, let alone complete 16.

Jarvion Franklin Under I am getting a MAC number against a B1G defense. Wisconsin has held 7 TEAMS to 88 or less and here this is one player that is being asked to do that and he is going to be splitting carries and likely trailing so prob won't be running the zone read late in 2H. Franklin's production great diminished down stretch - 17 for 76, 10 for 38, 9 for 34 in final 3 games. He averaged 100 per game for year against some abysmal rush defenses in the MAC - Wisconsin is the #2 rush defense in nation giving up 96 per game. He could break a long and I could be in trouble but this is a silly number, IMO.
 
Following on props. Got a much worse # on the Franklin rush yard prop, but hoping it's like the one for the Wash RB and that it won't matter. Though I also have WMU +8.5, so if I lose the rush yard prop, I probably win my WMU bet
 
GL to us. Sometimes I hesitate to over invest when props tend to be so highly correlated to sides and totals. They can pay off really big if you just nailed a game from a handicapping standpoint but I can go the other way too if you're wrong. I don't feel confident enough about how that game will play out but I definitely had liens to some of the western Michigan passing props over the number. That prop is such that I really don't care how the game plays out I think I'm s huge fav to win it no matter what. Would obviously prefer a big Wisconsin lead but even in a tight game that's a big task when the quarterback and Bogan will eat carries too
 
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