SEC Postseason Thread
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CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I considered that option as well. I chose to go with the individual player route as the two guys I played and Cleveland are going to be the guys getting ball and maybe a few RB screens that Nuss likes to call. I am just a bit hesitant to over commit to offense in a game that could be brutal. As sick as this is to say - I actually think Florida may have one of the better passing attacks that Iowa will have seen this year which is not a compliment to UF it's just a product of Iowa playing some terrible pass offenses. Another kinda fun fact - Appleby was 23/40 against Iowa last year at Purdue.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Two props for me in the big 'un Monday:
Longest TD Over 47.5 yards -110
OJ 'Da Juiceman' Howard Over 35.5 receiving yards -120
There are a few other props I'm sorta interested in but I've learned from a more personal standpoint I don't particularly enjoy having lots of props going in Bama games especially when it's the big dance. Hard to say with reasonable certainty what changes Sark makes to the offense but this player prop was the only I felt comfortable moving forward with. No way an OC could possibly under utilize the future NFL Pro Bowl TE anymore than Kiffin did the past 3 years. He did steal the show last time against Clemson as he ended up with 5 for 208 with 2 TD. Sure, those were certainly the product of some coverage busts as he was running free all game and I love him matched up against any of Clemson's LB here again. They better not try the perverted white guy on him. If Hurts were more aware in the Florida game OJ would have gone for 200+ again. That being said, he's gone over this number the past 3 and 7 overall this year. While used entirely differently, I can't shake the performance of Pitt's TE Scott Orndorff against Clemson earlier this season - 9 for 128 and 2 TD.
I have a good number on the under for the game and unless it gets hit heavy again in next 24 hours I prob won't try for a middle pre-game. Kinda a perfect storm for Bama this week with Clemson dominating the scoreboard, having their full attention from a game which the defense was embarrassed last year and Clemson being the talk of the media in the lead up. Saban is 12-1 in true championship games in his career so I expect another good effort from what I think is this year's best team.
Longest TD Over 47.5 yards -110
OJ 'Da Juiceman' Howard Over 35.5 receiving yards -120
There are a few other props I'm sorta interested in but I've learned from a more personal standpoint I don't particularly enjoy having lots of props going in Bama games especially when it's the big dance. Hard to say with reasonable certainty what changes Sark makes to the offense but this player prop was the only I felt comfortable moving forward with. No way an OC could possibly under utilize the future NFL Pro Bowl TE anymore than Kiffin did the past 3 years. He did steal the show last time against Clemson as he ended up with 5 for 208 with 2 TD. Sure, those were certainly the product of some coverage busts as he was running free all game and I love him matched up against any of Clemson's LB here again. They better not try the perverted white guy on him. If Hurts were more aware in the Florida game OJ would have gone for 200+ again. That being said, he's gone over this number the past 3 and 7 overall this year. While used entirely differently, I can't shake the performance of Pitt's TE Scott Orndorff against Clemson earlier this season - 9 for 128 and 2 TD.
I have a good number on the under for the game and unless it gets hit heavy again in next 24 hours I prob won't try for a middle pre-game. Kinda a perfect storm for Bama this week with Clemson dominating the scoreboard, having their full attention from a game which the defense was embarrassed last year and Clemson being the talk of the media in the lead up. Saban is 12-1 in true championship games in his career so I expect another good effort from what I think is this year's best team.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
Good luck GPS, Crimson, MW and Schrute. Hope I didn't forget anyone, but those are the ones I know for sure. Hope everyone wins a little coin.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
aplous, capt, Tim - Enjoyed talking CFB with all you guys this year! Hopefully everybody made some money - will prob have some week 1 lines up in next month or so :cheers3:
2016 Bowl Record: 52-37 (58.24%)
2016 Overall Record: 182-121 (60.06%)
Congrats MW, Scrute and anybody else I missed. Special team y'all got and deservingly got your W.
2016 Bowl Record: 52-37 (58.24%)
2016 Overall Record: 182-121 (60.06%)
Congrats MW, Scrute and anybody else I missed. Special team y'all got and deservingly got your W.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Classy Ck.
Great year btw.
Thought Bama made it hard on themselves this game when they didn't need to. Had to defend almost 100 plays because of the offensive play calling and the defense just tired out. Runners all succeeded, passing did not succeed. Bama called more passes than runs in this game despite one working and one not working ... think it will show up in box score as more rushes but when you factor in the scramble runs it was quite a few more pass plays than runs. Made little sense to me .. particularly when leading by two scores and having already defended a lot of plays.
Obviously a great year for Bama.
Great thread as usual gps. See ya next year
Great year btw.
Thought Bama made it hard on themselves this game when they didn't need to. Had to defend almost 100 plays because of the offensive play calling and the defense just tired out. Runners all succeeded, passing did not succeed. Bama called more passes than runs in this game despite one working and one not working ... think it will show up in box score as more rushes but when you factor in the scramble runs it was quite a few more pass plays than runs. Made little sense to me .. particularly when leading by two scores and having already defended a lot of plays.
Obviously a great year for Bama.
Great thread as usual gps. See ya next year
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
So typical.....you fucker
All nice and shit lol
Stick around Gump....pretty sure you will be back here....in a few ways hopefully
Some ways hopefully not haha
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Thanks for all who contributed this season, with a special thanks to Crimson K for basically running this thread all year. Hopefully I can be of more use next season
Can't believe I'm going to have to wear national championship gear that it over a year old. Like some kind of hobo.
Can't believe I'm going to have to wear national championship gear that it over a year old. Like some kind of hobo.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I question how much passing development effort was given to Hurts as the year went on. I don't know if Lane just said F it we'll let him do jet sweeps and QB runs and defense will handle it or what. Defenses certainly caught up to him. But he basically had one read and then tucked it the last few games. Will be interesting to hear anything that comes out of the football building about the playcalling Glad he's just a freshman, we'll see what he looks like with a full offseason and spring with Sark.
Dynasty is over. Until it isn't
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Great thread. Best one for CFB here, with all the writeups(Br@ss' good too when he is around, VK, others)
Bama will reload....Hurts has some work to do in the offseason, that is for sure, if he wants to be the starter.
Since the Bama guys didn't bring it up(and it isn't why they lost, give glory to Clemson, before someone comes in with that) but yall's boards blew/blowing up with the pick plays that Clemson ran? Those WRs for Clem sure are good...
I think Saban might've mentioned it right after the game in the 1st interview, too
Bama will reload....Hurts has some work to do in the offseason, that is for sure, if he wants to be the starter.
Since the Bama guys didn't bring it up(and it isn't why they lost, give glory to Clemson, before someone comes in with that) but yall's boards blew/blowing up with the pick plays that Clemson ran? Those WRs for Clem sure are good...
I think Saban might've mentioned it right after the game in the 1st interview, too
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
While the officiating wasn't great, I don't think it was that bad. It's the way the game is played now. WR's have much more leeway to push off a DB. Only time I've ever seen that pick play flagged was when it cost Notre Dame the game at FSU a couple of years ago. Only problem I had with the refs last night was that for most of the game, they just let them play, but at the end, they got a little more involved. never saw a replay of the unsportsmanlike penalty on Daron Payne, but what they showed shold have been either offsetting or nothing. And they seemingly reviewed every play. But in the end, refs didn't cost us the game. Our defense being on the field for 99 plays did.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
CK - Do you think Alabama's play calling essentially handcuffed Hurts, or was it deserved based on his inability to go through a progression of reads and/or Saban and staff being ultra conservative and feeling like if they eliminated TOs their defense was good enough to win the game? We basically saw them eliminate a lot of passing game options in both the Washington and Clemson games and I'm just wondering why? Hurts did have quite a few passes batted down at the LOS in the beginning of the Clem game, but I don't understand how Alabama could not have tried to establish a short to medium passing game with the weapons they have? I have never seen so many WR screens in one game since LSU's old off coordinator (can't remember his name) came to MD and started throwing them to Darrius Heyward Bey. I watched pretty much every Alabama game this year, and I thought Hurts was progressing in the passing game? Is his development lacking to the point that he can only make one read at this point and they just didn't trust him not to make mistakes? It seems to me that with Scarborough being effective in the power running game, they could have run some bootleg action and dragged O.J. Howard and set up some easier throws to Ridley and Stewart and the running backs. Also wondering why Alabama doesn't play more zone coverages in the red zone? Clemson had shown they liked to run the rub type plays and I would think Bama would change their coverages up some? I think when Scarborough went out that Bama should have been more aggressive in their play calling to try and sustain something on offense with the knowledge that their D was going to get worn down by the number of plays run by Clem. I'm disappointed that this team with one of the better defenses I have seen in college football was unable to get the win.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Doc
I am not CK, but I will give my 2 cents.
The kid looks at hie first read, and if it ain't there.....he will tuck and run or scramble and find a WR/TE that slipped outta coverage.
Who knows how he ends up, but the kid was thrust into a role that he honestly needed a tad more time to develop into.
The NFL Defense masked a ton of offensive issues, as you saw all year.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
"Do you think Alabama's play calling essentially handcuffed Hurts, or was it deserved based on his inability to go through a progression of reads and/or Saban and staff being ultra conservative and feeling like if they eliminated TOs their defense was good enough to win the game? We basically saw them eliminate a lot of passing game options in both the Washington and Clemson games and I'm just wondering why? Hurts did have quite a few passes batted down at the LOS in the beginning of the Clem game, but I don't understand how Alabama could not have tried to establish a short to medium passing game with the weapons they have?
- I think the Washington game the play calling was really bad. In the 1H the Wash defensive numbers were dictating that the run game was the best option yet it seemed like Kiffin didn't lean on it. When Bama did they had lots of success. I have a feeling Saban ripped him at half but by then the Wash defense made adjustments and there were more opportunities to throw but then Bama decided to lean on the run when that didn't seem the best option to me. I think the staff knew the Washington offense really only posed a threat when on script in the 1Q. I'm sure after watching tape it was evident there was no chance their OL could hold up to the Bama DL. Pro-style QB even with great WR generally not a huge threat to Bama - Austin Allen was the exception I remember. Against Clemson I really didn't dislike Sark's plan too much in the pass game. To most simply answer your question - I think it was more Hurt's inability to go through progressions that left you and many others feeling frustrated about the plan. He is athletic enough as he showed in the Clemson game and LSU also comes to mind where he can just pull it and run and make the plays he needed. In the Clemson game, I recall Mama dropping several passes that will prob never be remembered when looking back at that game year's from now but it's those small plays that aren't executed that get you beat - this game Bama had more of those than I can remember. I heard a coach say in regards to Kiffin the reason he is so good as an OC is he sees what you do poorly and he exploits it. I wouldn't have been able to necessarily pinpoint that before reading that observation but it's spot on, IMO. I can think back to countless plays in the past 3 years where he just simply dialed up the right play and Bama hit a big play for a TD. I don't post a ton of regular season prop bets but I personally bet quite a few and Kiffin has moved on so I'm more comfortable sharing this now but I've made a silly amount of money on Bama long yard TD props over the past few years - I never lost one this year I think I was 10-0 or better. That is a credit to Kiffin and combine hitting a timely home run on offense and the defense/ST scoring and it's a huge reason why Bama scoring outputs have been higher past two years than what I feel were truly an accurate depiction of who they are.
"I have never seen so many WR screens in one game since LSU's old off coordinator (can't remember his name) came to MD and started throwing them to Darrius Heyward Bey. I watched pretty much every Alabama game this year, and I thought Hurts was progressing in the passing game? Is his development lacking to the point that he can only make one read at this point and they just didn't trust him not to make mistakes? It seems to me that with Scarborough being effective in the power running game, they could have run some bootleg action and dragged O.J. Howard and set up some easier throws to Ridley and Stewart and the running backs."
- Hurts really regressed all season long, IMO. I go back and forth on putting it on him and/or putting it on Kiffin and I'm still not totally sure where I land. Overall, I think Kiffin is a great play caller but he can be super frustrating also. Chances are he is just really brilliant and I'm not smart enough from a philosophical and X&O knowledge to know for sure. Going back to his progressions - I was at the SECCG against Florida and I saw OJ Howard wide open for what could/should have been a multiple TD/200+ yard passing day. He finished with 2 catches for 41 yards. So it's kinda hard to say whose fault that was entirely - on one hand, it's Hurt's because he didn't make the right read and see him running free time and time again. On the other hand, as the coach, you gotta know your players limitations and even if you dial up the right play, if he isn't capable at that point of executing you gotta adjust or you're just a stubborn asshole that happens to be a football genius. Bama hasn't really targeted RB's in the passing game since Nussmeir and McElwain were running the offense - they were both so good at well timed screen passes - that's an element I would love to see more of but Lane seemed to bet more partial to WR screen. I feel very comfortable saying that Sark has to kicking himself for not leaning more on the run. Even when Bo went out, Harris was running well as he did all year and would rip off a big gainer and then for whatever reason we would throw 3 times in a row when that wasn't the best plan. Couple those plays with the aforementioned Dieter and Stewart drops and the defense ends up on field for 99 plays so it's no surprise they gave out in the end. Until the final two drives, Clemson had run 82 plays for 355 yards - that's incredible defense to hold this Clemson offense to 4.3 ypp and 21 points. Final two drives - 17 plays 155 yards and 2 TD to win. Credit to Clemson coaching staff for running a lot of their offense knowing their edge would be found in trying top wear out this Bama defense. This game came down to two things - Clemson staff out coached Alabama and Watson had a heroic effort. If Sark could have had the foresight to even just sprinkle in a handful more runs throughout the night I'm pretty confident Alabama wins the game because the defense isn't on the field those final two drives. Former Bama teams would have lined up and smashed for entire 4Q and said if you're gonna beat us then stop us. The Bama OL regressed big time under Mario Cristobal (now Oregon co-OC). He's a heck of a recruiter but can't coach a lick of football especially given that the early Saban/Bama OL coach was Joe Pendry who is as good an on field football coach as there ever was.
Also wondering why Alabama doesn't play more zone coverages in the red zone? Clemson had shown they liked to run the rub type plays and I would think Bama would change their coverages up some? I think when Scarborough went out that Bama should have been more aggressive in their play calling to try and sustain something on offense with the knowledge that their D was going to get worn down by the number of plays run by Clem. I'm disappointed that this team with one of the better defenses I have seen in college football was unable to get the win.
-I'm not sure on what the exact defensive philosophy is. Truthfully that's prob too nuanced for me I'm just not knowledgable enough and I've had the scapegoat response the past almost decade of saying, "I trust Saban with the defense". I guess I'll try it one more time here. Maybe one day when he hangs em up he will share more about why he called some of the defenses he did. I'll say this - I think this defense is full of heroes and I don't have a single bad thing to say About them as a group. They're the best defense I've seen at Alabama by a slight margin from the '11 team and I really hate it that these guys didn't win a title because they were just so good and so much fun to watch them compete. I think Hurts could end up being a really great QB by the time he leaves - he will almost certainly shatter tons of records by the nature of him likely to be a 4 year starter. I think having a full off-season of tape and time with Sark will really be beneficial for him. Bama has another really fun freshman at QB enrolled early, Tua Tagovailoa, and I think it will be interesting to see him push Jalen through camp. That's my .02, gps may disagree with any/all and he def more closely follows the program than I do - I get too distracted by the rest of the shiny things in CFB I see haha. I'll stop here at the risk of Twinkie accusing me of being long-winded.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Don't ever.....EVER feel sorry for those GUMPS!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think CK hit most of the key points and don't disagree with any of it. Things that I think:
-Lane didn't spend much, if any, time developing Hurts as a passer during the season. Maybe that's common, but Sims and Coker both got infinitely better as the season went on. But they were both 5th year guys, and had personal QB coaches on the side. Also, Hurts was such a good runner and our defense was so dominant, that maybe the coaches decided that it was unnecessary. I don't know, but like CK said, Hurts regressed as a passer during the season. I also think a large part of that is that we played the best 5 defenses we saw all season starting the first week in November. One of the reasons Hurts came to Alabama is so he could learn how to be a drop-back passer, so it's obviously a skill he know he needs to develop. I think we'll see a better and more confident passer next season. At least I hope
-While we saw the best defenses of the season from November on, we also saw some of the poorest offenses. LSU, AU, UF, and even Washington did not give our defense something even remotely near what we were going to see with Clemson. Maybe this had nothing to do with how our defense played, but it my mind it doesn't help. Kind of like how Kentucky gets basically zero competition in basketball once the conference season starts, and then struggle when they go up against good teams in the NCAAs
-Back on Hurts and the game plan, one of the things we know Saban places extremely high importance on is ball security. Hurts was pretty poor with that all season, but it didn't really hurt us much because of the defense and lack of dynamic offenses faced, especially down the stretch. Saban has also shown a tendency to not place a whole lot of trust in young QBs. While the presence of Kiffin probably opened up the offense more than usual with Coker and Sims, Saban's default is to not put the QB in a situation where they have to force things. Look back at 2011, McCarron's first season as starter. Very similar in that all throws were single read or low risk throws. I think it cost us in that (first) 1 vs 2 matchup against LSU. In the rematch, AJ was given a longer leash and we were able to move the ball some. I think the playoff games this year were similar in that regard. Also, we probably averaged 5-6 "pop" passes to the motion WR per game all season, but I can only remember one time we did it against either Washington or Clemson. Not that it is the most effective play in the world, but it seems odd to run it all season and then abandon it in the biggest games. It was good enough to get us there, but not good enough against these teams? Sure they were better than the teams we played all season, but I think you have to trust our players to win the one on one battles until they prove otherwise
-I'll give Sark a pass on the game plan for Clemson based on the circumstances, but as mentioned by CK, the plan wasn't necessarily a bad one. Sure we could have run more, etc, but the execution was poor for the most part. CK mentioned the dropped passes, and I'll mention the pre-snap penalties on first down. There were at least 3 instances, and both drives after Clemson turnovers, where our first play was on 1st and 15 because of a mental error. Both the drives after the turnovers went 3 and out and resulted in 3 points. 10-14 points, or even 7 with a clock eating drive on the other, and the game may have turned out differently.
-The book on Hurts was that he was an especially poor passer when under pressure, and Clemson proved just that. Other teams that were not as good as Clemson tried it, but Hurts' running ability made them pay. Clemson did a really good job not letting him get into the open field until the last play we ran on offense
-Bottom line from the game was that Clemson made more plays than we did when it mattered most. Having an incredible QB with a giant WR and another that can catch anything didn't hurt either
-Lane didn't spend much, if any, time developing Hurts as a passer during the season. Maybe that's common, but Sims and Coker both got infinitely better as the season went on. But they were both 5th year guys, and had personal QB coaches on the side. Also, Hurts was such a good runner and our defense was so dominant, that maybe the coaches decided that it was unnecessary. I don't know, but like CK said, Hurts regressed as a passer during the season. I also think a large part of that is that we played the best 5 defenses we saw all season starting the first week in November. One of the reasons Hurts came to Alabama is so he could learn how to be a drop-back passer, so it's obviously a skill he know he needs to develop. I think we'll see a better and more confident passer next season. At least I hope
-While we saw the best defenses of the season from November on, we also saw some of the poorest offenses. LSU, AU, UF, and even Washington did not give our defense something even remotely near what we were going to see with Clemson. Maybe this had nothing to do with how our defense played, but it my mind it doesn't help. Kind of like how Kentucky gets basically zero competition in basketball once the conference season starts, and then struggle when they go up against good teams in the NCAAs
-Back on Hurts and the game plan, one of the things we know Saban places extremely high importance on is ball security. Hurts was pretty poor with that all season, but it didn't really hurt us much because of the defense and lack of dynamic offenses faced, especially down the stretch. Saban has also shown a tendency to not place a whole lot of trust in young QBs. While the presence of Kiffin probably opened up the offense more than usual with Coker and Sims, Saban's default is to not put the QB in a situation where they have to force things. Look back at 2011, McCarron's first season as starter. Very similar in that all throws were single read or low risk throws. I think it cost us in that (first) 1 vs 2 matchup against LSU. In the rematch, AJ was given a longer leash and we were able to move the ball some. I think the playoff games this year were similar in that regard. Also, we probably averaged 5-6 "pop" passes to the motion WR per game all season, but I can only remember one time we did it against either Washington or Clemson. Not that it is the most effective play in the world, but it seems odd to run it all season and then abandon it in the biggest games. It was good enough to get us there, but not good enough against these teams? Sure they were better than the teams we played all season, but I think you have to trust our players to win the one on one battles until they prove otherwise
-I'll give Sark a pass on the game plan for Clemson based on the circumstances, but as mentioned by CK, the plan wasn't necessarily a bad one. Sure we could have run more, etc, but the execution was poor for the most part. CK mentioned the dropped passes, and I'll mention the pre-snap penalties on first down. There were at least 3 instances, and both drives after Clemson turnovers, where our first play was on 1st and 15 because of a mental error. Both the drives after the turnovers went 3 and out and resulted in 3 points. 10-14 points, or even 7 with a clock eating drive on the other, and the game may have turned out differently.
-The book on Hurts was that he was an especially poor passer when under pressure, and Clemson proved just that. Other teams that were not as good as Clemson tried it, but Hurts' running ability made them pay. Clemson did a really good job not letting him get into the open field until the last play we ran on offense
-Bottom line from the game was that Clemson made more plays than we did when it mattered most. Having an incredible QB with a giant WR and another that can catch anything didn't hurt either
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
yep
i know it seems obvious....but those WRs are the best Ive seen in some time....Williams and then the other big kid(name escpaes me) and then Wes Welker
lethal
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