Seahawks AT Redskins Playoff Discussion

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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins - NFC Wild Card Playoffs</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 1/6[/TD]
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[TD]107 Seattle Seahawks[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -2½ -130[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -155 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o46 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]4:30PM[/TD]
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[TD]108 Washington Redskins[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2½ +110 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +135 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u46 -110 [/TD]
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birds can win this game

while i say this cuz i think all roadies are worth a bet...they are just better than my guy rgIII

that said...remember that the skins are absolute performers as underdogs. they just show up...

surprised the line is so pro seattle, but they are so much the better team. just...buyer beware, the skins as dogs are very tough
 
Line does seem to beg for Wash money. I'm a Skins fan, and a bit of a hater of Russel Wilson. I just didn't think he'd ever make it in the NFL, and he's proven me dead wrong. I also despise Pete Carroll and think SEA is one of the *lamest* (for lack of a better term) franchises in the NFL. So trying to put homerism aside here's what I see:

Seattle historically has been a different team home/away. They've been decent this year, but are 4-4 ATS on the road.

I think the Skins have a shot and at first glance I wanted to be all over them. But here's the problem with this matchup for the Skins:

Washington really relies on turnovers to win games. In games where their opposition commits two or more turnovers, they are 9-3 ATS. When their opponents commit one or zero turnovers, they are 2-2 ATS. So the Skins REALLY rely on turnovers to win games. Seattle commits an average of 1.1 turnovers per game, so they aren't going to have Romo throwing them the ball every 5 passes. This and their inability to stop Lynch are what worry me most about this game. We'll see the corners in man coverage and see them stack the box to stop him, but Sea's O-line is as good as it gets. I see big trouble for the Skins defensive front against this bunch.

BUT - I will say this - Washington is 7-2 ATS this season as dogs and they have found ways to win games that perhaps they shouldn't have. But from a matchup perspective, this game really does favor the Seahawks. They need to find a way to grab an early lead and force Wilson into some throws. If SEA gets to limit Wilson to throwing 18-22 passes and leans on Lynch to control the game, and put them in 3rd and managable, SEA wins this game very easily.....

For now no play, but I'd lean SEA if I had to bet this one.
 
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No opinion on the side. Think whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win the game. I do have a real strong lean toward the under at 46. I just think its a few points too high. I don't really think Seattle is this offensive power as it may be perceived in recent weeks. Seattle defense I think both teams are going to be running the ball a lot in this game which means the clock should be moving. While these two rookie qbs have had excellent seasons and appear to be different than your average rookie qb, this game is the first NFL playoff start for both of them. I would expect both to maybe come out a little nervous and shaky. While the Skins def have a unique offense compared to the rest of NFL / teams Seattle has played this year, Seattle has only given up more than 20 pts twice this year. Maybe its bad thinking but if you figure each teams scores around 20 (give or take each side) I think there is a small amount of wiggle room for the under.
 
im big on seattle as my play of the week. luckily i got -2.5, bc i could very well see it being a fg game. But yeah, I just think from top to bottom they are a better team. The skins have something good brewing in that organization, but they still have pretty mediocre receivers except Garcon, and Sherman should take care of him. RG3 still won't be 100%. The Hawk's D contained Cam on the road, and I guess he's probably the best comp to RG3 at the moment.

And yea, I know the Seahawks were significantly more dominant at home than on the road, but if you look at the season's progression, they really found their identity and came together as a team as the season went on, and when that happened they started winning road games as well.

I think this game is gonna be awesome, and it sucks that they play each other right away, I'd love to see both these qbs play a separate game and win and then meet later on in the playoffs. But I think Seattle win this one in the 30-24 range.
 
Seattle for me as well. Love RGIII as he helped me cash a large Skins season win total ticket, but Seattle is a very good team from top to bottom. If Robert was healthy I would have to think longer about it, but you can see when he runs he is looking to get down rather than score like he was doing earlier in the season. His throws were also off a bit in the Dallas game. Romo gift wrapped that game for the Skins last week - Wilson has done a good job of avoiding turnovers. Wash has a rookie kicker who missed for the first time this season last week vs Dallas. Not sure he is ready for pressure kicks in the playoffs.
 
Am I the only person that hates the way the line is going in this game?

Seattle as a three point road favorite? Really?
 
Good thoughts in here guys. I also think this line stinks, and would be more enthused about backing my boys here if the Skins were a 1-2 pt fave. They are daring the public to bet the Redskins. Go ahead, take a chunk on the home team that has won seven straight. Ok, ok, I'll give you three points.....
 
Just to add to the under thoughts a little and I haven't capped the game yet .....but doesn't the read option similarity help the two defenses? Both offenses with rookie qb's running read option so both defenses have seen the thing and both staffs know the principles ... and in one week to prepare for this, the other teams in the league have a simulation problem.
 
Not only that, but the Seabags just game-planned for Kapernick two weeks ago. RGIII is a little quicker, but he's also not 100% so I'm not really seeing a huge difference there in what Seattle will do defensively. This isn't a foreign style to them, they've seen it before—and really recently.

I think that's a huge plus for them.

Also, last week was a very emotional game for the Skins. It was a playoff game, and you could hear the relief & joy in all their voices in the post-game interviews. I'm not saying they'll have a total letdown this week, but that does take a toll.
 
D. Hall said after the Cowboys game that prepping for Seattle was like prepping to play themselves. They are very similar teams with similar offenses, so familiarity will be there for both sides. As a Skins fan my entire life, I'm excited for this game as much as any in the last 20+ years. I really wish RG3 was healthier than he is, but it was clear to me that he is no more than 60% of himself at this point and I'm not sure that is going to get better in a week. Seattle's D is very good and their secondary is extremely talented. Good news for the Skins is that they don't really test the secondary very often and with RG3's health, I'm pretty sure they will continue to rely on Alfred Morris to pound the rock. Think the under might be a pretty good call here and as much as I want to see the Skins win this, I'm not sure RG3's knee will allow them to do what they need to in order to exploit the holes in the Hawks D. Can't bet the Seahawks out of principal alone, but not sure I want to take the chance to lose both with my heart and my wallet :)
 
jd if you are a skins fan, its really not THAT much of a heartbreaker. your team exceeded expectations by a huge margin, has a new star qb and rb (and garcon is a stud wr if he stays healthy), and your team went from cellar dweller to a team that everybdoy who likes football loves to watch.

even if you do go out in round 1, which may or may not happen, this season was a resounding success for you. color me a fan.
 
absolutely agree with you D. Definitely exceeded expectations from the beginning of the year, but all of that goes out the window when you have a home playoff game. I still think about 2007 when we went up to Seattle in the first round of the playoffs against Seattle. Shaun Alexander was the reigning MVP and in the first quarter, we knocked him out of the game with a concussion. Figured that was our chance to make it to the second weekend and we didn't. With a home playoff game and the team we have on the field, I would still feel "heartbreak" if we don't make it to the second weekend. It's the NFL and anything can happen. Hot team with a dynamic QB and RB and we've got a chance .... but I hear ya and do agree to a point.
 
Should be a great game, with two pretty evenly matched teams. I think the Under is a great bet....
 
Marlo said:
Should be a great game, with two pretty evenly matched teams. I think the Under is a great bet....
Click to expand...

how much is it gonna suck watching a game with Russell Wilson and RG3 and having to root for no points though?
 
I like the Redskins, and think the line is weird because there is a perception that Seattle is the best defense ever. Everyone is quick to point out Lynch but Morris has rushed for more yards & tds. Once Seattle pounded out the Niners they reached saturation point, and anytime a team puts up 40+ in 3 straight games people are going to look to bet them again. Fact is the Skins have the #1 run game, and a qb is is a pretty damn good decision maker. SEattle with 3 road wins two of which were Buffalo @ Carolina. Yes they are hot but they did have the situational edge nearly every game facing 3 divisional opponents at home with revenge. Combined record of last 4 teams faced 29-33 (18-29 when you take out SF). I wouldn't be surprised to see RG3/Morris put up 24 here, I don't think the Hawks d is unbeatable. Could be a closely played battle here, but I think I'm grabbing the home dog.
 
RgIII lite actually better than full version? Think so last week and vs this defense, perhaps again. IMO
 
I hear a lot of talk about the Seahawks defense shutting down Morris, but I wouldn't count on that. Skins went up against the #1 and #2 rushing defenses (TB and PIT) in the NFL this year and Morris had 34 carries for 172 yards in those two games for an avg of over 5 yards per carry. Seattle's run D is 10th in the league. Washington's is 5th.....

I actually think this game goes over
 
Skins as dogs have just been money and Sea as faves poop(at least that is the perception I have)

Seattle layin roadies now? I sounds weird to say, especially in a playoff setting.

Well it is 3 now....and that 3 gonna sit like a rock IMO
 
Skins ML +137 for me, I know it will fall on deaf ears and appear the homer play. But either Washington wins or gets blow out
 
Lexington 125 said:
I like the Redskins, and think the line is weird because there is a perception that Seattle is the best defense ever. Everyone is quick to point out Lynch but Morris has rushed for more yards & tds. Once Seattle pounded out the Niners they reached saturation point, and anytime a team puts up 40+ in 3 straight games people are going to look to bet them again. Fact is the Skins have the #1 run game, and a qb is is a pretty damn good decision maker. SEattle with 3 road wins two of which were Buffalo @ Carolina. Yes they are hot but they did have the situational edge nearly every game facing 3 divisional opponents at home with revenge. Combined record of last 4 teams faced 29-33 (18-29 when you take out SF). I wouldn't be surprised to see RG3/Morris put up 24 here, I don't think the Hawks d is unbeatable. Could be a closely played battle here, but I think I'm grabbing the home dog.
Click to expand...

I see where you're coming from but the perception on Washington is also sky high and they've covered an ungodly number games in a row. People are going to line up behind them at +3. I think the fact they are dogged is telling as to what is likely to unfold.

The Skins have really luckboxed their away ATS lately. I think Joe Public made a phenominal point about how the matchup problems RGIII presents will not affect Seattle like it will most other teams.

Personally I don't see many points in this game. I think Skins TT U 21.5 is the best bet.
 
Sunday's 4:30PM ET Game


Seattle @ Washington


The Seahawks and Redskins play a very similar brand of offense. Quarterbacked by dual-threat playmakers, both clubs flummox defenses in the read-option game and set up shot-play downfield throws off play-action. Seattle and Washington are run-based zone-blocking teams, each finishing the season in the bottom-three in pass attempts. Stretching defenses vertically, they also both ranked in the top-three in yards per throw. The big difference between the clubs lies on defense, where the Seahawks hold a significant edge. Seattle allowed the fewest regular season points in football, and the fourth fewest yards. Despite stretch-run improvement, the Skins served up the 11th most points and fifth most yards. Not his elusive, spectacular self playing with a bulky right-knee brace, Robert Griffin III has his work cut out to generate aerial success versus Seattle's top-six pass defense. With right corner Brandon Browner back from suspension and left cornerback Richard Sherman escaping punishment altogether, the Seahawks are capable of essentially eliminating perimeter pass catchers like Pierre Garcon with physical press-man coverage. ... Playcaller Kyle Shanahan and RG3 must get creative. Seattle's defense excels at disrupting pass routes and is not vulnerable in any particular area. Washington simply will not move the ball or score points without a brilliantly designed game plan from Shanahan. Seattle has not allowed more than 17 points to an opponent since November and arguably has the best defense in the NFL right now. They're a very difficult team to play against.


Alfred Morris may be the single biggest key to the Redskins' Wild Card Round offense. Ripping right past any notion of a Rookie Wall, Morris has actually gotten better as the season moves along, amassing 1,076 yards on his last 220 carries (4.89 YPC) after averaging 4.67 yards on his initial 115 pro runs. The zone scheme consistently springs Morris into space, and he attacks oncoming defenders with tackle-breaking violence. If Griffin is to connect with Garcon, Z receiver Leonard Hankerson, or slot man Santana Moss off play-action fakes, it will be because the Seahawks are more worried about Morris gashing them. ... Despite missing six games with a torn foot tendon, Garcon led Washington in 2012 receiving yards (633) and the Skins went 9-1 whenever he appeared for a game. Although this pass game had a spread-the-wealth look during its top receiver's missed time, Garcon is unfailingly the go-to guy when healthy. Shanahan keeps Garcon constantly moving around the formation to prevent against bracket coverage and double teams. The likes of Hankerson, Moss, Josh Morgan, and tight end Logan Paulsen are role players in the Shanahan system. Hank, Morgan, and Paulsen are also impact blockers in the run game.


The Skins rallied into the postseason by ripping off seven straight victories, but Seattle has just as good an argument for being the hottest team in the game. The Seahawks have one loss since October, along the way toppling Minnesota, Chicago, and San Francisco in 42-13 blowout fashion. While quarterback Russell Wilson deserves plenty of kudos, Marshawn Lynch is the offensive lynchpin after setting career highs in rush yards (1,590) and yards per carry (5.05). Washington’s defense ranked top-five versus the run during the regular season, but Lynch holds his own against stout units, amassing 342 yards and three all-purpose touchdowns on 79 carries (4.34 YPC) in four 2012 meetings with top-ten run defenses. Lynch caught fire as Seattle installed more zone-read plays in the second half of the year, ripping off eight 100-plus-yard performances over the final ten games. The zone-read freezes opposing front-seven members, literally keeping defenses on their heels. That's great news for running backs. ... Not only did Wilson match Peyton Manning's rookie touchdown pass record (26), he added four scores on the ground and became a dynamic, dual-phase weapon as playcaller Darrell Bevell diversified the late-season offense. Particularly notable for this matchup is Wilson's performance under duress, as Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett relies heavily on blitzes to mask coverage deficiencies. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson compiled an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 96.7 passer rating when blitzed this season. For rookie comparison sake, Andrew Luck's TD-to-INT ratio when blitzed was 8:5 with a 77.6 rating.


Haslett's defense utilizes frequent single-high safety looks to support the run and bring an extra blitzer into the box. The gambling strategy paid dividends throughout Washington's win streak, but leaves the secondary vulnerable. It should be no surprise that the Redskins ranked third to last in the NFL in regular season pass defense. Seattle's best blitz beaters are Z receiver Sidney Rice, slot man Doug Baldwin, and No. 2 tight end Anthony McCoy, who quietly paces the Seahawks in yards-per-catch average. Just as he did with Dez Bryant in Washington's Week 17 play-in win over the Cowboys, Haslett figures to employ DeAngelo Hall in shadow coverage of opposing top receiver Rice. Hall played his best game of the season against Bryant, holding the red-hot wideout to an innocuous 71 yards on four catches. Hall has not always been so effective, though, and his matchup with Rice will be one to monitor as a potential difference-maker for the Seattle-Washington outcome. ... Seahawks X receiver Golden Tate will likely spend most of the Wild Card Round in Redskins right cornerback Josh Wilson's coverage, in another fierce one-on-one battle. Wilson is Washington's most consistent cover man. ... Seattle lacks game breakers at tight end, but it's notable that the position gives Haslett's defense fits. The Seahawks do make frequent use of two-tight end sets, and the Redskins allow league highs in receptions (105), yards (1,062), and touchdowns (10) to tight ends. McCoy and Zach Miller will be Seattle's X-factors in this game.


Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Redskins 20
 
So as the post by nbafan says, the Seahawks D hasn't allowed more than 17 in quite a while. Their games are never lined this hi for a total. Perception is a great D for the Hawks and two solid running games and a clearly injured RG3. So not sure w/ all those perceptions, why they have this at 46.

The Skins D can be had here, on the ground and deep, I know Hall had an outstanding game last week, but still...Seahawks can be run on, I love Morris and if the Skins are successful running it can open it up a bit more for a play down field w/ Garcon or maybe Moss.


I like the Ravens to win, but no way can I trust them to win by more than a td, and I think the total in Washington is close. A tease w/ Ravens to pk and Over to 39 in Wash is a solid play, I know teasers are for suckers but i like it.
Also liking the Under in Balty as well...think the Colts will have trouble scoring and lord knows the Ravens will try their best to stay away from Ray Rice.
 
I can't take the under in Baltimore. Luck is probably going to make some sick plays but he's going to turn it over a couple times as well. That's going to lead to short fields for Baltimore and I don't think they have much trouble scoring. I agree with you about the Ray rice usage. So unpredictable.



In a side note. Ray rice bought his oline samsung smart TVs last week. 46" though. I feel like he should have gone bigger
 
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