Saratoga Race Course Opening Weekend Discussion....

Play2win

Play2win

Mod by Monday Morning
Stakes action at Saratoga will get off to a quick start with two graded stakes scheduled for Opening Day: the Grade 2, $200,000 Lake George and the Grade 3, $150,000 Schuylerville.

The Lake George, for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/16 miles on turf, is likely to feature a full field led by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's Celestine, who carries a four-race win streak into the race.

Feathered, who finished second in the Grade 1 American Oaks in her last start, is also probable for the Lake George, along with stakes winners Mississippi Delta, Partisan Politics, Quality Rocks and Sivoliere. Jellicle Ball, Lady Zuzu, Mrs McDougal and Robillard are likely as well, with Bugle, Cara Marie, and Dynazar possible for the race.

The potential field for the six-furlong Schuylerville is comprised of a very promising cast of 2-year-old fillies, with trainer Todd Pletcher likely to send out two impressive debut winners, Positively Royal and Tonasah.

Wesley Ward is also likely to send out a pair of runners, Banree and Moment Is Right, the latter of which won the Astoria at Belmont Park in her most recent start.

Others probable for the race include Adhara, Decked Out, Little Miss Miss and Off the Tracks. Areolite, J Be K's Sonnet, and More Than Most are possible.

The first Saturday of the meet will feature a pair of stakes races, the Grade 3, $150,000 Sanford and the Grade 1, $500,000 TVG Diana.

Contested at six furlongs on the main track, the Sanford is expected to attract a talented group of 2-year-olds, led by graded stakes winner He's Comin in Hot. The Bret Calhoun trainee already has two wins from four races under his belt, including a 3 ¾-length score in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs. Cocked and Loaded, the half-length winner of the Tremont on June 5, is expected for Larry Rivelli, as well as Tremont runner-up Paynes Prairie for Steve Asmussen. Other probables include Awesome Slew for Eddie Plesa Jr., John Q. Public for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Twirling Cinnamon for Brad Cox and Uncle Vinny for Todd Pletcher. Percolator is possible for John Servis.

Chad Brown is expected to send a pair of serious contenders to the Diana, a 1 1/8-mile turf race for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up, in the Ken and Sarah Ramsey-owned duo of Stephanie's Kitten and Kitten's Queen. Multiple Grade 1 winner Stephanie's Kitten will be looking to rebound from her fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 New York on June 5, where she checked in a length behind winner Waltzing Matilda, also expected for the Diana for Tom Albertrani, and a neck behind Kitten's Queen. Recent Grade 2 Dance Smartly runner-up Watsdachances is also possible for Brown.

Meanwhile, Grade 1 Just a Game winner Tepin is probable for Mark Casse. The Bernstein filly has been undefeated in three starts this year, which also included a 1 ½-length victory in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile on May 2. Hall of Famer Bill Mott is expected to saddle Lady Lara, most recently fourth in the Grade 1 Just a Game, and My Miss Sophia, who wired an allowance field to win by 4 ½ lengths in her grass debut last time out. Multiple Grade 1 winner Hard Not to Like is also probable for Christophe Clement.

Three-year-old fillies will take center stage on Sunday in the Grade 1, $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks. A field of seven appears likely, headed by a pair of Grade 1 winners at Belmont Park - the Todd Pletcher-trained Curalina, who took the Acorn on Belmont Stakes Day, and Tom Proctor's Include Betty, a 3 ½-length victress in the Mother Goose on June 27. Joining the fray will be multiple graded stakes star I'm a Chatterbox, winner of the SiIverbulletday, the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra and the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks for trainer Larry Jones. Most recently, she finished third to Lovely Maria in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. The 1 1/8-mile race is also expected to attract Chide, third in the Mother Goose last time out; Conquest Eclipse, winner of an optional claimer on June 20 at Churchill Downs; the graded stakes-placed Danette, who broke her maiden last time out on July 2 at Belmont; and Munasara, who in her third start was 10th in the Mother Goose.

Opening week concludes with the $100,000 Lucky Coin for turf sprinters, in which the Joe Sharp-trained Shore Runner will look to extend his winning streak to three. Also pointing to the 5 ½-furlong event on the Mellon Turf are Successful Native, winner of the Turf Sprint on July 5 at Gulfstream Park; Spring to the Sky, second in an optional claimer last time out; Sharp Sensation, most recently fifth in the Grade 2 Highlander at Woodbine; Saucy Don, winner of a pair of stakes at Monmouth Park this spring; Sandy'z Slew, second to Shore Runner last time out; Dreamsgonewild, victorious at the Lucky Coin distance at Monmouth on June 7; Choctaw Chuck, coming off a pair of seconds at Presque Isle Downs, and Brewing, making his second start on the turf for Zayat Stables. Bold Thunder is possible.
 
Entries close today so pp's should be out this afternoon, can't wait to start capping the opening day card.
 
The 147th summer of thoroughbred racing at historic Saratoga Race Course gets under way on Friday with a 10-race card that includes the first two of 69 stakes worth a record $18.7 million during the 40-day meeting.

Saratoga's traditional opening day feature, the Grade 3, $150,000 Schuylerville for 2-year-old fillies, is joined this year by the Grade 2, $200,000 Lake George for 3-year-old turf fillies. Post time for the first race is 1 p.m.

Racing will be conducted six days a week, excluding Tuesdays, through Labor Day, September 7, highlighted by the 146th renewal of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes for 3-year-olds on Saturday, August. 29.

Travers Day includes six other graded stakes, five of them Grade 1s, worth $4.6 million as one of three spectacular Saturday programs put together by the New York Racing Association. The others are August 8, offering five stakes worth $2.15 million anchored by the Grade 1, $1.25 million Whitney Handicap for older horses; and August 28, featuring six New York-bred stakes worth $1.15 million.

Seven-time Eclipse Award winner Todd Pletcher looks to get a head start on his sixth straight Saratoga training championship and 12th overall when he sends out contenders in each of Friday's stakes: impressive debut winner Positively Royal in the six-furlong Schuylerville and Grade 3 winner Feathered for the 1 1/16-mile Lake George.

The 97th renewal of the Schuylerville is set for race 4; the 20th running of the Lake George will take place in race 9.

A bay daughter of champion Bernardini, Mathis Stables' Positively Royal cruised to 3 ½-length victory in her June 18 unveiling at Belmont Park, covering five furlongs in 58.49 seconds. Pletcher, 48, has won the Schuylerville five times (2002, 2003, 2006, 2011, 2014) and gone on to take Saratoga's training title in each of those years.

"She's a very professional filly," Pletcher said. "She trained at my dad's all winter and trained very well. She was one of the first ones to come in. She ran to expectations first time out and has trained accordingly since then. We've been fortunate over the years to have some nice fillies in here, and I think she is of that same caliber."

Fellow defending meet champion Javier Castellano, looking for his third consecutive Spa riding title, has the mount from post 7.

Trainer Wesley Ward will send out both Mark Dodson's Banree and Ten Broeck Farm's Moment Is Right for the Schuylerville. A daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Medaglia d'Oro, Moment Is Right is unbeaten in two starts having romped over colts in her May 15 debut at Gulfstream Park and followed up with a front-running 1 ½-length score in the June 4 Astoria for fillies at Belmont Park.

Banree, by Macho Uno, similarly beat colts in her debut April 16 at Keeneland Race Course and faced males again in the June 5 Tremont at Belmont but was taken out of her game following an awkward break and wound up a non-threatening fifth.

"They're doing really well. Both are coming into the race great, so we'll see what happens," Ward said. "I don't know what happened [in the Astoria]. She's always kind of been pretty quick out of the gate but she was really compromised and lost all chance. [Moment Is Right] has been super. Going into the race it's a toss-up as to which one's better, that's for sure, and I'd even lean the other way a little bit. A lot of it has to do with the trip and what have you, but they're both pretty talented 2-year-old fillies."

Joel Rosario, up for the Astoria, gets a return call from post 6 on 121-pound top weight Moment Is Right, who spots two pounds to each of her rivals. Saratoga newcomer Rafael Hernandez will be back aboard Banree from post 8.

Also entered are Decked Out and One Minute, who ran 2-3 in the Astoria; fellow stakes-placed Areolite; and debut winners Little Miss Miss and Off the Tracks.

Pletcher has the lone graded stakes winner in the Lake George in Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners' Feathered. In two starts since being moved to the turf this spring, the daughter of Indian Charlie won the Grade 3 Edgewood May 1 at Churchill Downs and was a stubborn second in the Grade 1 American Oaks 29 days later at Santa Anita.

Feathered will be ridden for the first time by Luis Saez from post 10 at top weight of 123 pounds and cuts back from 1 1/8 miles for the Lake George, run at the same distance as the Edgewood. Pletcher won the Lake George in 2005 and 2006.

"In her first couple of starts this year she didn't seem to have regained her 2-year-old form," Pletcher said, "so we turned to the grass and that seemed to take care of it. We're not surprised with her pedigree that she likes it, but she's a good, versatile filly that handles multiple surfaces and distances."

Third in the Edgewood and second by a head in the Grade 3 Regret, Three Chimneys Farm's Lady Zuzu is entered for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who captured the 2009 Lake George with Be Fair. Most recently, the Dynaformer filly set a blistering pace before fading in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational July 4.

"We're going to look at it. I'll let the owner decide. I think she fits the race pretty good," Lukas said. "The last race was a debacle with the rider. He just opened up and went unrealistic fractions. We're going to change that."

Corey Lanerie, riding at Saratoga full-time this summer, has the mount from post 8 at 115 pounds.

Trainer Chad Brown is represented in the Lake George by three fillies: Mr. and Mrs. William Warren's Mrs McDougal, Klaravich Stables' Partisan Politics and Martin Schwartz's Irish-bred Sivoliere.

Partisan Politics is already a stakes winner at Saratoga, having taken the 1 1/16-mile P.G. Johnson last summer under Castellano, who returns to ride from outside post 12. She has been winless in three starts since, returning from a sixth-place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf to run second by a nose in the Wild Applause Stakes June 14 in her sophomore debut.

Unraced at 2, Mrs McDougal won her debut over the winter at Gulfstream Park and most recently was fourth by 2 ¾ lengths in the Grade 1 American Oaks. Sivoliere has been off the board in three North American starts since arriving last fall from France including a fourth-place finish in the Wild Applause, five lengths behind Partisan Politics.

Sivoliere will break from post 6 under Jose Ortiz at 115 pounds, while Mrs McDougal will carry Irad Ortiz, Jr. and 117 pounds from post 9.

Rounding out the field are Celestine, a winner of four straight starts including the Wild Applause for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott; Mississippi Delta, having captured three consecutive races including back-to-back stakes at Woodbine; Indy Star Stakes winner Cara Marie; All in Fun, Robillard, My Year Is a Day and Jellicle Ball, the latter making her U.S. debut for trainer Graham Motion.
 
Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course will offer the first Grade 1 race of the 147th meet, the $500,000 Diana for fillies and mares at 1 1/8 miles on turf, which will feature a trio of Grade 1 winners.

Also on tap for Saturday's 11-race program is the Grade 3, $150,000 Sanford for 2-year-olds at six furlongs, which drew a field of 11 runners.

Robert Masterson's Tepin enters the Diana on a three-race win streak dating back to March 21 at Gulfstream Park, when she took an optional claimer by a length in her 4-year-old debut. After a 1 ½-length triumph in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile, the daughter of Bernstein scored a breakthrough victory in the Grade 1 Just a Game on Belmont Stakes Day, prevailing by a half-length over Filimbi.

Tepin's fantastic start to 2015 comes on the heels of a winless 2014 campaign. Despite her sophomore slump, Tepin's trainer, Mark Casse, remained confident in his star filly.

"We've always thought she was on the special side," said Casse. "She trained as good as any 2-year-old we've ever had and ran well, and then she had a few setbacks as a 3-year-old. The key this year is that we've been able to run her without interruption."

With both of her last two wins coming at a mile, Tepin will have to stretch out a furlong in the 1 1/8-mile Diana. The bay filly has failed to hit the board in two previous tries at the distance.

"My concern doesn't come from her prior attempts [at 1 1/8 miles]," said Casse. "At Churchill Downs she looked like she had a big chance to win and they almost put her over the hedge. She had a strange episode in California. Her jockey [Tyler Baze] said she felt fine on the track, but she nearly collapsed after the race due to the heat. The key to it all is her ability to settle. If she settles early, she has a shot."

Tepin will break from the rail with Julien Leparoux aboard.

Mechanicville, N.Y. native Chad Brown will saddle a pair of runners on Saturday, including multiple Grade 1 winner Stephanie's Kitten, who missed by a neck in last year's Diana.

After finishing second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Stephanie's Kitten opened the year with a 1 ½-length score in the Grade 3 Hillsborough at Tampa Bay Downs. Making her next start in the Grade 2 New York, the 6-year-old mare finished fourth as the 2-5 favorite.

Stephanie's Kitten, owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. from post 2.

Brown and the Ramseys will also team up to send out Kitten's Queen, who set a dawdling early pace in the New York and held on to finish third, a neck in front of Stephanie's Kitten.

In accordance with an amendment recently adopted by the New York State Gaming Commission, the two Ramsey horses will be uncoupled. Kitten's Queen will leave from post 3 with Jose Ortiz aboard.

Hard Not to Like, trained by Christophe Clement for Speedway Stable, rounds out the triumvirate of Grade 1 winners.

Since moving to Clement's barn in late 2014, Hard Not to Like has won two of three starts, including the Grade 3 Endeavor and, most recently, the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita Park. Last year, the daughter of Hard Spun picked up her first Grade 1 victory in the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. The 6-year-old mare finished third in this year's edition of the Jenny Wiley, sandwiched between her two graded stakes triumphs.

"She's doing very well," said Clement's assistant, Christophe Lorieul. "She didn't win by much in the Gamely, but it was a lot more impressive than it looks on paper. She was trapped on the inside and in the last sixteenth of a mile a hole opened up and she went through and won. She was the best horse the whole way. It's going to be a much tougher task [in the Diana], but she's doing well so we'll give it a try."

Hard Not to Like will have the services of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, and the pair will leave from post 4.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will also send out a pair of runners, Lady Lara and My Miss Sophia.

Owned by Ben Sangster, Lady Lara won the Grade 2 Honey Fox in her 2015 debut and most recently finished fourth in the Just a Game. She will be ridden by Junior Alvarado from post 7.

My Miss Sophia, who entered Mott's barn after a disappointing 2014 campaign, has raced twice this year. After finishing fifth in the Grade 1 La Troienne on May 1, the 4-year-old turned heads in her subsequent start at Belmont, in which she rolled home to a 4 ½-length victory in her turf debut.

Joel Rosario will be aboard My Miss Sophia, owned by Alpha Delta Stables, from post 6.

Rounding out the field is Waltzing Matilda, who sprung a giant upset in the New York, winning at odds of 22-1 in her North American debut.
 
The summer juvenile colt division will get underway at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday afternoon as a field of 11 lines up for the Grade 3, $150,000 Sanford Stakes, led by Grade 3 winner He's Comin in Hot, and Tremont Stakes one-two finishers, Cocked and Loaded and Paynes Prairie.

The most experienced of the group, Cocked and Loaded will be making his fifth career start and first since notching a 3 ¾-length victory in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs. The Texas-bred son of Early Flyer has been in the money in each of his previous starts but, according to trainer Bret Calhoun, it took the gelding a little time to put it all together.

"In his first race, he broke just ok and then sat back and really didn't get in the race until the last eighth of a mile," said Calhoun. "He was very green. I thought he would blow to the front and go on that day. I had really expected him to be professional in his first race because he had been so professional in the morning. In his second race, he ran well but still not like I had expected. It took him two races [to come around]. Since that time though, he hasn't done anything wrong."

He's Comin in Hot will break from post 6 with Joel Rosario.

Richard Ravin and Patricia's Hope LLC's Cocked and Loaded will look to extend his win streak to three in the Sanford, following a one-length maiden victory this spring at Keeneland and a late-closing, half-length score over Paynes Prairie in his stakes debut in the $250,000 Tremont on June 5 at Belmont Park.

Trained by Larry Rivelli following his maiden win, Cocked and Loaded will break from post 8 under Irad Ortiz Jr.

Norma McKathan's Paynes Prairie followed up his second-place finish in the Tremont with a maiden win on July 4 at Belmont, where he outdueled two other rivals to prevail by 3 ½ lengths.

"He's a very old soul," said trainer Steve Asmussen. "He came into the barn a very mature, very confident horse. He's taken his races extremely well. He's had two breezes over the track here at Saratoga since the race at Belmont. I'm kind of excited about Saturday."

The Florida-bred Tale of Ekati colt will be ridden by Javier Castellano from post 7.

Rounding out the field for the six-furlong Sanford, going off as race 9 on the 11-race card, are: Awesome Slew for Eddie Plesa, Save the Drama for Kevin Rice, John Q. Public for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, Magna Light for Rudy Rodriguez, Sunny Ridge for Jason Servis, Twirling Cinnamon for Brad Cox, Percolator for John Servis and Uncle Vinny.
 
I did go through Opening Day card once, will likely go through 1 more time as well as watch a few more replays...

Initial thoughts:

R1: we talk about trainer moves and angles, #1 is a strong Owners move..Michael Dubb off the claim, I thought he had tougher trip than winner in his last race but that horse did not run well last weekend. #3 is 2nd Lasix and 2nd off layoff but hung in last, maybe a bet against at a short price. #4 is a contender imo, big class hike but Jacobson is plenty capable moving up and is in for initial claim price, seems too sharp to ignore. #8 goes turf to dirt and fits with these, horse for course at Finger Lakes but certainly has back class.

R2: #1 fits strong trainer angle for this meet, Violette is great with 2 yo 1sters in dirt sprints @ Saratoga. #2 Hennig is 0 for 39 with maiden 1sters last 6 meets. #4 Stewart is 1 for 26 last 2 meets. #5 Ward 0 for 15 maiden 2 yo 1sters last 3 meets. #10 Pompay 0 for meet 2014 and 0 for last 28 1sters.
 
Friday card seems like a lot of wide open competitive races, should be some money to be made some place...

R3: I like #6 and #7 the best. #6 last race is a throw out race, that was off layoff and was on dirt, on turf today..according to Mazur Saratoga Handicapper book Serpe #1 in Maiden Claiming races 5 for 12 42% last 3 meets and #1 in stretch outs in that span. Also majority of Serpe's Spa wins last 3 meets have been during this rest, 10/40 25% 15-30 days. #7 drops in class and adds blinkers and Lasix. #12 is interesting, trainer doesn't claim often but claimed this one in last and gets Javy to ride, now blinkers off. According to Trakus ran 36 more feet than 2nd place finisher in last race, tough post. #1 is ML fav and trainer Ward has lowest ROI at Saratoga of all trainers last 5 years, also 6 for 68 9% turf races last 3 meets. #4 mixed feelings, 2nd off layoff switching turf to dirt and turf race 2 back makes her a contender, trainer was 0 for 26 Spa meet 2014 but prior to that did well in Spa Maiden Claiming races. #10 may be within a chance, have to go way back to find her only 2 turn turf race and that effort makes her a contender and that was vs better than these.
 
R4: I was just negative on Ward but that's a turf race and could be fav, here its a dirt race and I like his #8 at 5-1 ML. #8 is a filly that has raced vs colts in her 1st two races, should work out a nice outside stalking trip given post draw. #8 exits key race and 1st and 2nd finishers are contenders for 2 yo colts stakes on Saturday. #7 probably has to be used and #4 is a longshot I'm looking at.
 
R5: I'm taking a stand against the four horses that exit Bel 6/27 7th race (#1,2,10,11) as that seemed like a weak race. Besides exiting what seems to be a bad race, #11 trainer doesn't win NYRA turf races and was 0 for 2012 and 2013 Spa meets, pretty sure no runners in '14. #7 is a contender and could win but likely short price, drops in class. #6 could have a chance at 15-1 ML drops for tag , short rest, surface switch for crafty trainer..last 2 races on dirt but turf races 3 and 4 back make her a contender. NOTE: looking at #6 race 3 back, show finisher that beat her by 1 length is same that beat #7 by 2 3/4 lengths last out.
I'm really interested in #4 at 20-1 ML, last out was off long layoff and ran career best Beyer , 4 yo filly could improve off of that effort...back races, although vs lesser competition make her a contender as well in a race that doesn't seem like will take much to win.
 
Play2win said:
I did go through Opening Day card once, will likely go through 1 more time as well as watch a few more replays...

Initial thoughts:

R1: we talk about trainer moves and angles, #1 is a strong Owners move..Michael Dubb off the claim, I thought he had tougher trip than winner in his last race but that horse did not run well last weekend. #3 is 2nd Lasix and 2nd off layoff but hung in last, maybe a bet against at a short price. #4 is a contender imo, big class hike but Jacobson is plenty capable moving up and is in for initial claim price, seems too sharp to ignore. #8 goes turf to dirt and fits with these, horse for course at Finger Lakes but certainly has back class.

R2: #1 fits strong trainer angle for this meet, Violette is great with 2 yo 1sters in dirt sprints @ Saratoga. #2 Hennig is 0 for 39 with maiden 1sters last 6 meets. #4 Stewart is 1 for 26 last 2 meets. #5 Ward 0 for 15 maiden 2 yo 1sters last 3 meets. #10 Pompay 0 for meet 2014 and 0 for last 28 1sters.
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Race 1: #1 Dubb and Rudy dangerous off the claim and ran well against much cheaper in last but 2 back at the level ran to 20-1 odds, did break maiden last summer at his course and distance, mixed feelings. #2 is talented but a bit of a hanger, 9 for 9 in the money over dry dirt but only 1 win, contender but probably runs 2nd or 3rd. #3 was sent to Dubai for the winter for some reason and didn't like it, came back with a nice run off the break, most logical pick but will be short price. #4 Big step up in class for Jacobson whose runners seem to run to their odds at Saratoga: Jacobson is an active claiming trainer, but his runners on dirt tend to run to their odds, at least at Saratoga in recent years. Over the past five years, he’s 72-3-9-10 for a $0.96 ROI there with all runners on dirt at odds of 5-1 or higher. Pay special attention to the odds of those horses making their first start for Jacobson following a claim; he’s 21-7-1-2 for a $2.70 ROI with ones less than 5-1 and 17-0-2-3 with those at higher odds. Only the first part is applicable here but will keep an eye on the tote, these numbers may be indicative of how much the trainer bets himself in these races. #8 is the wildcard, has run some big numbers at Finger Alakes which haven't translated too well outside of that track but also hasn't run on dry dirt, the preferred surface, outside the Lakes in NY in a while with 2 turf attempts and catching a couple of off tracks.

Race 2: #1 for Violette looks tough also looking at 2 prices based off of works in #6 and especially #9, Schettino decent with firsters and a pretty good apprentice jockey where the 5 pound allowance may help with baby fillies.
 
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Play2win said:
Friday card seems like a lot of wide open competitive races, should be some money to be made some place...

R3: I like #6 and #7 the best. #6 last race is a throw out race, that was off layoff and was on dirt, on turf today..according to Mazur Saratoga Handicapper book Serpe #1 in Maiden Claiming races 5 for 12 42% last 3 meets and #1 in stretch outs in that span. Also majority of Serpe's Spa wins last 3 meets have been during this rest, 10/40 25% 15-30 days. #7 drops in class and adds blinkers and Lasix. #12 is interesting, trainer doesn't claim often but claimed this one in last and gets Javy to ride, now blinkers off. According to Trakus ran 36 more feet than 2nd place finisher in last race, tough post. #1 is ML fav and trainer Ward has lowest ROI at Saratoga of all trainers last 5 years, also 6 for 68 9% turf races last 3 meets. #4 mixed feelings, 2nd off layoff switching turf to dirt and turf race 2 back makes her a contender, trainer was 0 for 26 Spa meet 2014 but prior to that did well in Spa Maiden Claiming races. #10 may be within a chance, have to go way back to find her only 2 turn turf race and that effort makes her a contender and that was vs better than these.
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Race 3: #7 isn't a Parting Glass horse but is managed by Gallo for the owners so I get updates on progress, clipped heels and lost rider in first attempt and received this after the second: Khaleesi Kat ran 9th in the 9th race on Sunday, July 5th at Beautiful Belmont Park. KK just did not want to be any part of running in a race against other horses. She was a handful in the paddock, washed out in the post parade, broke slow and fought the jock the whole way! She was switching her leads back and forth and never really took hold of the bit. Very disappointing because in her first race she was the exact opposite. Composed in the paddock and made a nice inside move before getting blocked and launching her rider. I'm thinking that first experience scared the living daylights out of her and she remembered it being a terrifying experience. Well it's back to the drawing board and we will see if we can get her straightened out. She did exit the race in good shape so we will see where we go from here. I would say probably an equipment change and a shot of bourbon before the next start!

So I would keep an eye on how she is behaving in the paddock, does get lasix for first time and adds blinkers and Mott pretty good numbers dropping from MSW to Maiden Claimers. #9 could find herself alone on the lead in a race devoid of any early speed, did tire in last 2 but last was off turf and 2 back was first off 7 month layoff and adds lasix for first time here.
 
While we are discussing Jacobson, according to Mazur book he's #1 1st start off Saratoga claim last 3 meets, #2 in cutbacks last 3 meets 4 for 15 27%, 3 for 37 turf routes last 3 meets, 3 for 11 27% turf to dirt last 3 meets, 2nd start of meet 17/66 26% last 3 meets.

$ shows but if I like a price I ignore stats for most part

Nice quick profile for Jacobson
 
Lloyd Braun said:
Race 3: #7 isn't a Parting Glass horse but is managed by Gallo for the owners so I get updates on progress, clipped heels and lost rider in first attempt and received this after the second: Khaleesi Kat ran 9th in the 9th race on Sunday, July 5th at Beautiful Belmont Park. KK just did not want to be any part of running in a race against other horses. She was a handful in the paddock, washed out in the post parade, broke slow and fought the jock the whole way! She was switching her leads back and forth and never really took hold of the bit. Very disappointing because in her first race she was the exact opposite. Composed in the paddock and made a nice inside move before getting blocked and launching her rider. I'm thinking that first experience scared the living daylights out of her and she remembered it being a terrifying experience. Well it's back to the drawing board and we will see if we can get her straightened out. She did exit the race in good shape so we will see where we go from here. I would say probably an equipment change and a shot of bourbon before the next start!

So I would keep an eye on how she is behaving in the paddock, does get lasix for first time and adds blinkers and Mott pretty good numbers dropping from MSW to Maiden Claimers. #9 could find herself alone on the lead in a race devoid of any early speed, did tire in last 2 but last was off turf and 2 back was first off 7 month layoff and adds lasix for first time here.
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yeah, I'm also gonna throw in #9 R3 some form, best Beyer is only 2 turn turf race, now adds Lasix and could get loose on front end.
 
Play2win said:
R4: I was just negative on Ward but that's a turf race and could be fav, here its a dirt race and I like his #8 at 5-1 ML. #8 is a filly that has raced vs colts in her 1st two races, should work out a nice outside stalking trip given post draw. #8 exits key race and 1st and 2nd finishers are contenders for 2 yo colts stakes on Saturday. #7 probably has to be used and #4 is a longshot I'm looking at.
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Pretty much seeing this the exact same way here.
 
Play2win said:
R5: I'm taking a stand against the four horses that exit Bel 6/27 7th race (#1,2,10,11) as that seemed like a weak race. Besides exiting what seems to be a bad race, #11 trainer doesn't win NYRA turf races and was 0 for 2012 and 2013 Spa meets, pretty sure no runners in '14. #7 is a contender and could win but likely short price, drops in class. #6 could have a chance at 15-1 ML drops for tag , short rest, surface switch for crafty trainer..last 2 races on dirt but turf races 3 and 4 back make her a contender. NOTE: looking at #6 race 3 back, show finisher that beat her by 1 length is same that beat #7 by 2 3/4 lengths last out.
I'm really interested in #4 at 20-1 ML, last out was off long layoff and ran career best Beyer , 4 yo filly could improve off of that effort...back races, although vs lesser competition make her a contender as well in a race that doesn't seem like will take much to win.
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Race 5: Very tough race for me to get a handle on, #2 made up ground late in last and is the only one I would consider from the common race. #3 maybe be quickest out of the gate but going 2 turns for first time and don't know how much she'll appreciate the stretch out. Agree #4 is a contender at a big number 2nd off a long layoff and stretching out. #5 isn't going to get away with setting the slow fractions she did in last 2 with several stretching out from sprints in here. #6 is another price horse to consider as her 2 turf efforts would be competitive here. #7 will be a short price, but has the tactical speed to sit a nice pocket trip and is a must use to me. #8 sat right off some slow fractions in last and still faded back in the late stages. #13 would be of interest if draws in off the AE list, has the back class and second off a layoff.
 
Race 6: #6 will be odds on for Pletcher and he is tough in these situations and this one sports a 47 flat gate work 2 weeks ago: Look for Pletcher to debut his best juveniles at Saratoga; they’re hard to bet due to short prices, but they’re hard to bet against because they win so often. He’s an astonishing 24-19-2-1, $2.57 ROI, with debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at the Spa when bet to odds-on favoritism over the past five years. That’s a win rate of nearly 80 percent, and the only two who finished off the board were in races scheduled for turf but moved to the main track. #4 for Violette who does exceptionally well with firsters and working well at Aqueduct. #2 comes in with the experience of a race under her belt just missing in the debut for Assmussen: Pletcher’s juvenile maidens sprinting on the dirt are the ones who get the attention, but Asmussen’s are the ones who have been better bets in the past five years at the Spa. He’s 57-18-10-9 for a $3.57 ROI with those runners; that’s a 32 percent win rate and 65 percent in the money. That success is independent of the horses’ number of prior starts, as he’s done equally well in the first start (34-9-4-8, $3.66 ROI), second start (17-7-5-1, $3.87 ROI), or later (6-2-1-0). #9 debuts for Brown: Brown’s reputation for live turf runners means that those runners are no longer likely to be overlooked in the wagering. However, that reputation means that some of Brown’s maidens might be undervalued on dirt, even though those runners have been just as successful at the Spa over the past five years, going 59-15-9-9 and yielding a $2.52 ROI.
 
Damn, looks like I'm going to be loading up the horse racing account for this weekend. Thanks for the input guys.
 
Good stuff guys. Agree with most everything here, will add a couple of thoughts.

Race 1 - Solid group for the opener. Rudy Rod first off the claim with #1 is noteworthy, as is Brown's #2 trying two turns for the first time. #4 and #8 both have two turn efforts in their recent past that could win this, figure to be forwardly placed, and will be square prices. All that points to playing against the morning line favorite #3.

Race 2 - Nothing to add, 1, 6, 9 like Lloyd said.

Race 3 - Pretty decent group for this level. Castellano riding for the small barn on #12 is noteworthy. Agree that #9 is worth a flyer at 15/1 as a possible loose horse in a field of maidens where most don't know how to pass. #7 off the equipment change, Lasix and drop is worth a look too. #4 fits in here too and will be a nice price. Tough to back the favorite #1 trying to stretch out.

Race 4 - Hoping Ward scratches one of his two entries so I can key on the other one. Think his #6 looks tough in here. Favorites went 10 for 20 in mid-level 2 YO stake sprints at the Spa last year, so need to respect Pletcher and his #7. The Desormeaux boys have a small shot too with #1 maybe getting a dream rail trip behind the early pace.

Race 5 - #5 stole the win from the lead in his last race with some soft fractions, don't think he gets to pull that off again. A faster pace will hurt the #4 as well, whose two wins in 2014 were aided by slower than average pace setups. #3 comes out of two fast-paced sprints, and will help push the pace along, but would need to step up significantly in class to be able to hold on the extra furlong. #6 has shown improving form on dirt his last two, switches back to turf where his success has been limited. Not Jacobsen's best move in his stats. #7 and #8 look most likely. #7 has Mott & Lezcano with a horse that was competitive before this class drop. #8 has Castellano staying on a horse that also gets some class relief and won last year around two turns at the Spa, his only non-one turn race in his last 10. #1, #2, #10 and #11 all ran pretty similar off the pace efforts in the same event last month. I would lean #11 out of that as he just missed by a 1/2 length at this level and three races back had a two turn effort against that would win this.

Race 6 - Hard to argue against Pletcher's 47 sec from the gate filly #6. These are the races he usually dominates. My sneak a flyer in on Clement's Tapit bred #5.

The price horses look most attractive in the first 3 races, with more chalky types in the next 3. Will be playing early pick 3s hoping to catch a price or two. Still looking at the late pick 4.
 
Let me finish off these Fri thoughts so I can move on to Saturday. .

R6: 2,4,5,6,9 look to be the contenders, I prefer #2 who is only one in field with race under her belt, experience is an edge here and strong trainer angle for Asmussen, 2 yo maiden 2nd time starters have done great at this meet for him for years.

R7: my top choice is #9 20-1 ML was huge in debut getting the win and overcoming tough trip was only start on firm turf, then soft turf troubled trip at Kee, then most recent was off layoff, yielding turf and 14 post at Laurel, good prep for today..owner (mostly with Sheppard) and trainer have been winning at Saratoga with these "sneaky" types for years. #1 I don't really like to play horses off a win but according to Trakus ran 27 more feet than place horse. #8 was a perfect trip winner in last but off the claim for Ramsey/Maker. #3 had no punch late in most recent race. Can #4 turn things around with venue change? #10 figures to take money but perfect trip winner in last race now meets winners for 1st time and trainer 1 for 26 last 2 meets. #12 will also take money, tough post and 1st time vs winners.
 
R8: Seems to be enough early speeds for #6 to work out a nice setup, 90-99-92 Beyers from last 3 look strong in here. #1 doesn't fit with #6 speed fig wise but 2 for 2 going 6F and very strong trainer angle, Ness is 92/245 38% with horses switching surface from synthetic to dirt at all tracks over the last 5 years. I'm strongly against #8 who had to win race that fell apart in last at SA.
 
Play2win said:
Let me finish off these Fri thoughts so I can move on to Saturday. .

R6: 2,4,5,6,9 look to be the contenders, I prefer #2 who is only one in field with race under her belt, experience is an edge here and strong trainer angle for Asmussen, 2 yo maiden 2nd time starters have done great at this meet for him for years.

R7: my top choice is #9 20-1 ML was huge in debut getting the win and overcoming tough trip was only start on firm turf, then soft turf troubled trip at Kee, then most recent was off layoff, yielding turf and 14 post at Laurel, good prep for today..owner (mostly with Sheppard) and trainer have been winning at Saratoga with these "sneaky" types for years. #1 I don't really like to play horses off a win but according to Trakus ran 27 more feet than place horse. #8 was a perfect trip winner in last but off the claim for Ramsey/Maker. #3 had no punch late in most recent race. Can #4 turn things around with venue change? #10 figures to take money but perfect trip winner in last race now meets winners for 1st time and trainer 1 for 26 last 2 meets. #12 will also take money, tough post and 1st time vs winners.
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Also about #10 in R7, horse she beat in last had to go to Indiana Downs to win and is now 1 for 10 life.
 
Acorn heroine Curalina and Mother Goose star Include Betty may be the lone Grade 1 winners for Sunday's 98th edition of the Grade 1, $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks, but they will be facing a half-dozen talented fillies who among them have finished no worse than third in 13 of 18 graded stakes starts and earned in excess of $1.7 million.

Among them is Chide, who, in her fourth career start, came in third behind Include Betty and Coaching Club rival Wonder Gal in the 1 1/16-mile Mother Goose on June 27 at Belmont. A daughter of 2010 Grade 1 Whitney winner Blame and out of the multiple graded stakes winning mare Yell, Chide won at first asking on March 18 at Oaklawn Park, finished second in a seven-furlong optional claimer on May 1 at Churchill Downs, and then scored in a 1 1/8-mile allowance a month later, also at Churchill.

"She certainly acted like she fit in in the Mother Goose, and acquitted herself just fine in her fourth start," said Al Stall, who also trained Blame. "You have to take your time with the Blames, and she's the spitting image of her father in her head, her walk ... she reeks of class and she's so easy to deal with. Come to think of it, her father was undefeated at Saratoga [also winning the 2009 Curlin], so that's another positive."

Chide drew post position 2 and will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

Like Include Betty, who drew post 5 under Drayden van Dyke, and Curalina, Keen Pauline enters the 1 1/8-mile Coaching Club off a stakes win, having taken the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan on Preakness Day in wire-to-wire fashion. Prior to that, the Pulpit filly finished fourth going seven furlongs in an allowance at Keeneland.

"The Black-Eyed Susan had been our plan for a while," said Romans. "We used the sprint to set her up for the Black-Eyed Susan. She ran hard to win it, so we gave her time off to get her feet back underneath her. But her work on Sunday [five furlongs in 1:00 at Churchill Downs] was as good as a work can be, so we're looking forward to running her."

Keen Pauline will have Javier Castellano in the irons when she leaves from post position 6.

The well-traveled Curalina carries a three-race winning streak into the Coaching Club, having broken her maiden in March at Gulfstream Park and romping to an 8 ¼-length allowance win going 1 1/16 miles in May at Churchill Downs prior to her gutsy neck victory over By the Moon in the one-mile Acorn on Belmont Stakes Day.

"We're very excited about the way she's been training," said Todd Pletcher of the Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners color-bearer. "Her works up here have been especially good. Our concern in the Acorn was backing up to a mile. Then, she got sandwiched at the start and pinched back to last. The way she overcame that adversity to win was quite impressive. Stretching back out to two turns going 1 1/8 miles should suit her very well."

Hall of Famer John Velazquez will be aboard Curalina, with the pair leaving from post position 3.

Treadway Racing Stable's Wonder Gal has maintained her consistency while competing at the highest level since the beginning of her career, when she broke her maiden in the Lynbrook Stakes in her first start. Since then she has been first, second or third in six straight stakes, all Grade 1 or 2, most recently finishing second to Include Betty in the Mother Goose.

Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides from post position 7.

Rounding out the field are Grade 1-placed Conquest Eclipse, winner of an optional claimer on June 15 at Churchill; Danette, who earned a third in the Grade 1 Chandelier at Santa Anita last year and who enters Sunday's race off a maiden win at Belmont, and multiple graded stakes winner I'm a Chatterbox, third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last time out on May 1.
 
Late pick 4 thoughts

Race 7 - Not a lot of pace signed on here, #11 is the only one to have ever gone to the front and she couldn't last, ran much better (broke maiden through DQ) coming from well off it at Keeneland. #1, #10 and #12 figure to be forwardly placed, are all in good form and all are worth using. Two of Chad Brown's in here, #4 and #5, of the two I'm more likely to go with #4 at double the price, who ran well in some high-level Euro races in 2014 but has yet to find her form in the US. #2 and #5 are both stone cold closers who probably won't see enough pace to run at. #13 got in and she's a must use for Twinkie's buddy.

Race 8 - Sharp field of eight shipped in for this one. Big scratch of #2 sets up #4 as lone speed with the talent to run on well. Off-the pace types that could sneak past late are (in order of preference) #6, #3 and #8. #8 comes in off a 4 month layoff for Shireffs, was a speed ball front runner in New York last fall, went to Cali over the winter and became an off-the-pace horse. No idea what he'll be in this race. #4 is your best single for this sequence.

Race 9 - Very contentious Lake George Stakes, with plenty of early speed signed on, although the scratch of #8 mitigates that a bit. #1 Celestine is the best of the vanguard group, with 4 straight wins for Mott. Stretching an extra 1/16th here is the challenge. #11 Robillard is another early horse that is 2 for 2 at the distance and showed some versatility in her Keeneland maiden breaker, is stepping up in class but not impossible.

The mid-pack fillies feature #10 Feathered, who is turning back from a gutty place finish following a duel at ten furlongs in a Grade 1 race. #9 Mrs McDougal was also in that duel and could move forward on the turnback.

Contenders from the rear group include #7 Mississippi Delta, stretching out for the first time but showed an explosive turn of foot in winning at Woodbine, and #12 Partisan Politics, who just missed running down Celestine in their 1 mile hookup in June.

The mystery horse is #3 Jellicle Ball, coming across the pond for Graham Motion. She gets Johnny V to ride, was placed in a Grade 3 event. Will try to make her beat me.

Race 10 - #15 draws in with the scratch of #8 and is a prime contender. Others with ability include #14 on the cutback, #6 on the class drop, and #4 on the trainer change, return to sprints and class drop.

Pick 4 will revolve around singling the #4 in Race 8.
 
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#7 looks more comfortable today than she did in last, looked the #6 reared up a little and was a little high strung coming out on the track
 
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