Saratoga Race Course Opening Weekend Discussion....

I'm pretty sure blakwj20 was youngest competitor in national capping contest last year, he Tha future. ..and I'm so blessed to know him, he beast yo...
 
P2W 7/25

R1: 6 only one with race experience for great 2nd out trainer
R2: don't like 2, perfect trip loser in last, 0 for last 2 years. .5 will be bet, could win...looking 6 turf route races make him contender. .7 will take money, Javy rides , 0/49 trainer L3 meets, 9 is serious player,
 
Saturday July 25:

Race 1: Similar to Friday's 6th race with 1 horse with experience just missing in debut coming back against a field of new runners. #6 Metal Magic took the lead in the stretch in last and got nailed at the wire, trainer Kenneally solid with maidens making 2nd start, make him top choice. #7 Moon King debuts for Casse and Oxley and sports an impressive breeze pattern, offspring of Malibu Moon have a tendency to win early. #5 Boalt Hall for Pletcher and Stonestreet will take plenty of money because of connections and has been working out like you expect for a Pletcher, dam side of pedigree is a little questionable.

Race 2: #2 Adirondeck Dancer has been battling with #4 English Minister for the minor awards in his last 3 attempts, hasn't found winner's circle since Aug '13, will limit to underneath. #3 Majestico ran some good races last year as a juvenile, but hasn't shown the same form this year, woke up a little last out on dirt with the blinkers coming off, a little intriguing at 20-1. #4 English Minister, a lot like #2, is always close but hasn't won in almost 3 years, have to limit to underneath. #5 Bam Bam, ran some good turf races in Brazil before going to Cali and not showing much including a flat run down the hill in last, barn switch might help but can't back at a short number this time. #7 Speeding Comet seems to have taken a step forward since the switch to grass, might appreciate the move of the hedge here, once was able to find running in in last closed impressively, top choice.
 
Race 3: #6 Life Imitates Art, Brown 29% last 5 years at Spa with 2yo debuting on grass and 26% when routing in debut on grass. #8 Little Schmo hit the gate and started slow in debut over a wet track before making up a ton of ground in the stretch to finish 2nd behind a runner who will be going in the Sanford later in the card, should appreciate the additional ground here. Prefer #10 Dissident over #4 Jungle Jumble of the 2 Pletchers runners. Obviously can't use #7 Site Read because of Mott debut numbers, but he thought enough of this one to purchase himself, not something I've seen before, might play underneath.

Race 4: #1 Stay Tuned seems to be the class here but will be really short price, move to rail may not help and addition of blinkers hasn't been a winning move for Catalano. #9 Sean and Matt ran a huge number breaking maiden last September off a similar layoff as the one he comes off of here, Schettino positive ROI with 6 month plus layoff and going route to sprint. Possible long shot might be #4 Mach My Day, winner of last goes in G3 Jersey Shore today and although a little on speed figures 3yo still has a right to improve in 5th career start. #7 Danzig Storm has improved since moving to conventional dirt 4 back, maybe be able to get a nice stalking trip, contender.
 
Race 5: 3rd juvenile maiden race on the card makes the early multi race bets a little tough. #9 Crosstown Route debuts for Violette a high percentage first out trainer, and Speightstown is a very solid win early sire. #3 Horner Man has a nice work pattern at Belmont for Lynch, another who can have them ready to go at first asking, workmate Hammers Vision won debut last week at Belmont in first asking over the turf at a nice price. #7 Show Bound comes in off 2 good efforts including a runner up in a G3 race at Churchill for Assmussen, probably the one to beat. #10Greenpointcrusader is a half to solid sprinter Justin Phillip out of Bernardini and Schettino is solid with firsters, far outside post does him no favors though.

Race 6: #1 Glowing Ember has been bumped at the start last 2 starts and has some early speed to find a spot to stalk but might want to go a little longer than 5.5F, contender. #3 Lewys Vaporizer gets turf for first time and the 3yo gives up some overall experience will be vying for the early lead and hoping to hang on. #6 Sylven Park another 3yo making just 3rd career start and 1st against winners, bred for sprinting on turf, and closed impressively to win last against a weaker field, 46.4 4F at Keeneland after that effort shows he is still fit, needs to be closer early against these. #7 Dowse's Beach might want a little more ground than 5.5F, but might be able to take advantage of a hot early pace between 3 and 8, contender. #8 Asset Inflation has been caught late in last 2 efforts, by #7 in last at 7F and a solid turf runner at about 6F 2 back, should appreciate the cut back to 5.5F and if he can get in front of #3 will be tough to run down here.
 
R1 #7 could win, $675 k 2 yo in training purchase but Casse no Spa runners last 2 meets , 1 for 13 '12 winner was turf, 2010-12 at Spa 3 for 40, 2 wins came in Maiden Claimers but all 3 were turf winners, not sure when Casse last Spa dirt win was
 
R2: another likely short price I don't want in the early DD is #4 7/2 ml, horse is 1 for 18 and trainer was 0 for 26 last Spa meet
 
Play2win said:
R8 #5 20-1 ml one of my better plays today...3,9,11 also figure
Click to expand...
#5 Ocala Jim in most recent start drew tough 10 post and raced wide, had no chance closing into slow fractions according to Trakus he ran 82 more feet than winner, 68 feet more than place horse and 59 feet more than show horse Taghleeb
 
Pick 5 is loaded with likely favorites, all depends on how much faith one is willing to put in them.

Race 1 - Same setup as Race 6 yesterday, one decent 2nd timer (#6) against a collection of firsters including another smart-training Pletcher baby. Differences from yesterday are that #6 figures to be forward early instead of off the pace like Friday's winner, and the horse is shipping in from Churchill. The Churchill shippers had a really tough time competing at Belmont, could be the same issue here. Also the dirt yesterday seemed to tire a lot of front-r7nners. Need to use him based on fitness but #5 and #7 both are interesting as well with their strings of sharp works. A: 5,6,7 B: -

Edit: 5 & 6 both scratch. #4 & #9 move up. A: 7 B: 4, 9

Race 2 - #2 and #4 both fit here but are hard to back since neither has won since 2013. #7 had a nice 2 turn effort at the big A and showed a good late kick into a slowish pace in his last. Castellano obviously helps. Favorite #5 goes from a struggling barn to a Hall of Famer in Mott, stretches back out to a comfortable distance and gets a solid turf jock in Lezcano. A: 5,7 B: 2,4

Race 3 - Chad Brown had a big day on the grass yesterday and debuts one of his babies today in #6. Must respect. Pletcher has two in here #4, who doesn't show a gate work (?) #10 who's works look just OK. I'll pass on those two. Interesting returnees include #2, whose got major turf pedigree and was forwardly placed in his first try on dirt, and #8 who was intended for turf in his debut, hit the gate on the break but rallied well. #9 took money in his debut on dirt, kept up with the pace early but faded late. Turf pedigree suggests improvement here, and gets a good turf rider in Leparoux. At 10/1 worth some inclusion. A: 2,6 B: 8.9

Race 4 - Like the opener yesterday, the sheets players are hinting that the favorite #1 has a strong edge over this field. Blinkers addition should get him closer to the pace. Lots of alternatives if he doesn't fire. #7 put in a strong race 1st of the claim for Scott. #8 gets all kinds of changes, new trainer, turf to dirt, route to sprint, blinkers on and freshly gelded. #4 and #5 are both 20/1 and I've seen a lot worse at that price. A: 1 B: 7,8 Longshots: 4, 5

Race 5 - Pletcher (#6) and Violette (#9) babies in here, along with another pair of Churchill shippers (#7 & #8). First race may provide a good indication of what we can expect here. I'll use #9 on as the A with the other three as B's, could change though after 1:00.

Edit - All clues scratched out of the first race. A: 6,7,8,9 B: -

All A's ($8)
7 / 5,7 / 2,6 / 1 / 6,7,8,9

A's w/ 1 B ($48)
7 / 5,7 / 2,6 / 7,8 / 6,7,8,9
7/ 2,4 / 2,6 / 1 / 6,7,8,9
7 / 5,7 / 8,9 / 1 / 6,7,8,9
4,9 / 5,7 / 2,6 / 1 / 6,7,8,9
 
Last edited:
Race 10 has got some good horses running today
tepin, Stephaine Kitten, miss Sophia and Lady Laura.
Looking fwd to this race.
Gonna box these in some way today.

any thoughts on any of these horse?
 
ProV1Colt said:
Race 10 has got some good horses running today
tepin, Stephaine Kitten, miss Sophia and Lady Laura.
Looking fwd to this race.
Gonna box these in some way today.

any thoughts on any of these horse?
Click to expand...


Tepin is a quality horse but not sure she wants 9F, her 2 efforts at the distance are not very encouraging. Stephanie's Kitten had to close in to slow fractions in her last, and the Ramse's enter #3 to ensureshe has a pace to close in to, will be dangerous. My Miss Sophia has all the back class in the world and seemed to have woken up with the debut over the turf in last, but that was against allowance types and now faces G1 turf runners, may be pace compromised if she is going to try to wire the field. With all that said I agree the race seems to set up well for Lady Lara and the extra distance she gets here should be welcomed in trying to turn the tables on Tepin.
 
Gandolf said:
Pick 5 is loaded with likely favorites, all depends on how much faith one is willing to put in them.

Race 1 - Same setup as Race 6 yesterday, one decent 2nd timer (#6) against a collection of firsters including another smart-training Pletcher baby. Differences from yesterday are that #6 figures to be forward early instead of off the pace like Friday's winner, and the horse is shipping in from Churchill. The Churchill shippers had a really tough time competing at Belmont, could be the same issue here. Also the dirt yesterday seemed to tire a lot of front-r7nners. Need to use him based on fitness but #5 and #7 both are interesting as well with their strings of sharp works. A: 5,6,7 B: -

Edit: 5 & 6 both scratch. #4 & #9 move up. A: 7 B: 4, 9

Race 2 - #2 and #4 both fit here but are hard to back since neither has won since 2013. #7 had a nice 2 turn effort at the big A and showed a good late kick into a slowish pace in his last. Castellano obviously helps. Favorite #5 goes from a struggling barn to a Hall of Famer in Mott, stretches back out to a comfortable distance and gets a solid turf jock in Lezcano. A: 5,7 B: 2,4

Race 3 - Chad Brown had a big day on the grass yesterday and debuts one of his babies today in #6. Must respect. Pletcher has two in here #4, who doesn't show a gate work (?) #10 who's works look just OK. I'll pass on those two. Interesting returnees include #2, whose got major turf pedigree and was forwardly placed in his first try on dirt, and #8 who was intended for turf in his debut, hit the gate on the break but rallied well. #9 took money in his debut on dirt, kept up with the pace early but faded late. Turf pedigree suggests improvement here, and gets a good turf rider in Leparoux. At 10/1 worth some inclusion. A: 2,6 B: 8.9

Race 4 - Like the opener yesterday, the sheets players are hinting that the favorite #1 has a strong edge over this field. Blinkers addition should get him closer to the pace. Lots of alternatives if he doesn't fire. #7 put in a strong race 1st of the claim for Scott. #8 gets all kinds of changes, new trainer, turf to dirt, route to sprint, blinkers on and freshly gelded. #4 and #5 are both 20/1 and I've seen a lot worse at that price. A: 1 B: 7,8 Longshots: 4, 5

Race 5 - Pletcher (#6) and Violette (#9) babies in here, along with another pair of Churchill shippers (#7 & #8). First race may provide a good indication of what we can expect here. I'll use #9 on as the A with the other three as B's, could change though after 1:00.

Edit - All clues scratched out of the first race. A: 6,7,8,9 B: -

All A's ($8)
7 / 5,7 / 2,6 / 1 / 6,7,8,9

A's w/ 1 B ($48)
7 / 5,7 / 2,6 / 7,8 / 6,7,8,9
7/ 2,4 / 2,6 / 1 / 6,7,8,9
7 / 5,7 / 8,9 / 1 / 6,7,8,9
4,9 / 5,7 / 2,6 / 1 / 6,7,8,9
Click to expand...


BOL today Gandy
 
At this point I'm just trying to find a horse that isn't carried 6 wide on the turns.:hang:
 
that board has some insane numbers on it and I know people that bet all/fave/all tris, they gonna be pretty happy with this one
 
With a name like Liberal Spin there's no way the 10 isn't getting my money

R6: 10WP, 8,9,10,11 EXB
 
Late Pick 4

Race 8 = 3,5,7,9,11 - #7 can absolutely steal this the way they've been grabbing the reins so far. #5 is dangerous at 20/1.
Race 9 = 8, 9, 11 - betting on a pace meltdown
Race 10 = 2,7 - Ramsey has #3 in there to ensure the pace and dammit he's going to go this time. Perfect setup for two really strong closers.
Race 11 = 2,3,4 - looking for off the pace to win here too. #4 on the cutback, #2 pointed here off a year layoff, #3 is 3 for 9 at distance. Add #9 if you need another one.
 
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