Saratoga Race Course Opening Weekend Discussion....

loss mitigation on that last race with a trifecta, otherwise pretty rough sledding today
 
Thought it was a legitimate DQ in that 2nd weave back to the rail likely cost #10 a place finish, but it was unfortunate since #4 was clearly the best. There needs to be a better way to mete out punishment and compensate the victims WITHOUT punishing the bettors for making a good handicapping decision. Not sure why the race results in terms of the bettors always have to match the compensation to the connections.

Why can't the stewards be allowed to author a split decision? In that race the betting results should've kept the 4 on top with the 10 and 11 listed as co-place horses, the same as if it were a deadheat. Then make the results in terms of prize money go 11-10-4.

That was a brutally tough card yesterday BTW. A half-million Pick 5 winner and a carryover in the Pick 6 show it was near impossible to string many races together.
 
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Sunday late Pick 4 thoughts

Race 8 - Should be plenty of pace to run at in this one as #1, #6 and #10 all like to go to the front and #2 returned in his 2015 campaign with a front-running maiden win. I like #3 and #11 to sit good trips behind the vanguard and make first run. Favorite #3 is good and improved sharply last time but is hardly a lock first time going 9 furlongs on a fast 2-turn track. #9 closed strongly in his last going 5 wide and has a good effort at the Spa on his resume. Not sure what to do with the Euro shipper #8, has some back class running on synthetics, but his dirt works at Belmont are just ok, nothing special. Of the front-runners #2 still has upside and a strong 2-turn effort on his resume. A: 3,9,11 B: 2,8

Race 9 : Scratch of #4 puts #11 in the race, who's a contender based on past numbers and adds blinkers to get into the mix earlier against what looks like a pace-less race. I think either #8 or #10 goes to the front and the one who does will be tough to catch. #6 could leap forward in his second start adding blinkers off a good effort. #2 showed a nice close in his last start into a weak pace but that was against lesser, may have too much left to do here. A: 8,10,11 B: 2,6

Race 10: Good group in the CCA Oaks despite the scratch of Wonder Gal, who I really liked in here the way she was able to run on in a fast paced Mother Goose. I'm against the other two coming out of that race, Chide and Include Betty, who both basically picked up the pieces on a race that melted down. Keen Pauline figures to go to the front again after her Black Eyed Susan win, with Curalina in close proximity and I'm a Chatterbox not much further back. I think its one of those three. Danette has always been a talented underachiever, I could see her catching a piece underneath. A: 3,6,8 B: -

Race 11: Typical skull-busting day ender. My real hope is it starts raining after 5 pm and the race goes off the turf and it becomes an auto-All. Can make a good case for any of the 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 or 10. Narrowing down I'll take my chances with 2, 3, 4, with B horses 8 & 9. Pace looks to favor those closer to the front and those three will be in the first half of the field. 2 & 3 were both competitive at Maiden level, then won easily when dropped to Maiden Claiming. #4 is only horse in field to win at Maiden level, has run OK in stakes and tougher allowance races. A: 2,3,4 B: 8.9
 
DQ'd off my contest winner, as if I haven't lost in every possible way already this weekend. :thumbsdown:
 
Gandolf said:
Sunday late Pick 4 thoughts

Race 8 - Should be plenty of pace to run at in this one as #1, #6 and #10 all like to go to the front and #2 returned in his 2015 campaign with a front-running maiden win. I like #3 and #11 to sit good trips behind the vanguard and make first run. Favorite #3 is good and improved sharply last time but is hardly a lock first time going 9 furlongs on a fast 2-turn track. #9 closed strongly in his last going 5 wide and has a good effort at the Spa on his resume. Not sure what to do with the Euro shipper #8, has some back class running on synthetics, but his dirt works at Belmont are just ok, nothing special. Of the front-runners #2 still has upside and a strong 2-turn effort on his resume. A: 3 (2nd),9,11 B: 2,8

Race 9 : Scratch of #4 puts #11 in the race, who's a contender based on past numbers and adds blinkers to get into the mix earlier against what looks like a pace-less race. I think either #8 or #10 goes to the front and the one who does will be tough to catch. #6 could leap forward in his second start adding blinkers off a good effort. #2 showed a nice close in his last start into a weak pace but that was against lesser, may have too much left to do here. A: 8 (2nd),10,11 B: 2,6

Race 10: Good group in the CCA Oaks despite the scratch of Wonder Gal, who I really liked in here the way she was able to run on in a fast paced Mother Goose. I'm against the other two coming out of that race, Chide and Include Betty, who both basically picked up the pieces on a race that melted down. Keen Pauline figures to go to the front again after her Black Eyed Susan win, with Curalina in close proximity and I'm a Chatterbox not much further back. I think its one of those three. Danette has always been a talented underachiever, I could see her catching a piece underneath. A: 3 (win),6, 8 (2nd DQ) B: -

Race 11: Typical skull-busting day ender. My real hope is it starts raining after 5 pm and the race goes off the turf and it becomes an auto-All. Can make a good case for any of the 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9 or 10. Narrowing down I'll take my chances with 2, 3, 4, with B horses 8 & 9. Pace looks to favor those closer to the front and those three will be in the first half of the field. 2 & 3 were both competitive at Maiden level, then won easily when dropped to Maiden Claiming. #4 is only horse in field to win at Maiden level, has run OK in stakes and tougher allowance races. A: 2 (win),3,4 (2nd) B: 8.9
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Two 2nd's and two wins on the A's. Getting a little closer. Actually all four 2nd's, King of the place Pick 4.
 
7/27

R1: looks to be a two horse race maybe it's just #3 who drops in class for the dangerous Schwartz/Hushion team, Hushion has won with 4 of his last 8 MSW to MCL drop downs, Hushion is great in dirt sprints at Saratoga, 10 of his 16 wins over last 3 meets came 1st start of meet. #3 also exits a key race.
#2 goes turf to dirt, good move for C Martin, in her dirt races she was running with better (MSW) , maybe today considering 1st dirt/MCL start, Javy rides is also a positive.
#1 goes for trainer that went 3 for 79 Spa meets 2012-14
#4 is a drop down from MSW but has zone zero running
#5 is another MSW drop down, who also hasn't done any running, Ward lowest ROI at Spa of all trainers L5 years.
#6 trainer 0 for 12 L2 meets, 1 for 15 L3 meets
#7 ran ok in last but I think that was a bad bunch
 
R2

From a class stand point #3 lays over this field but not sure the 8 yo has enough left in the tank, huge drop down and Jacobson is plenty capable with these types, 0 for 6 at distance though, hasn't won in two years...
#4 drops in from NW1X races, if #3 can't get back to his good races #4 certainly fits with these, similar layoff which produced a great Spa effort last year. C Englehart 17-7-2-4 82% ROI dirt sprint Claimers under $40k last 3 Spa meets.
#5 is off the Claim for Esler who won Sundays last race with horse 2nd off the claim.
#1 route to sprint solid trainer move but horse appears off form
#6 is off claim, Javy rides but will take money even though moving up in class, pass for me
 
R3

I'm going to take a shot against 3/5 ML fav #1 who could win, exits graded stakes company.
#2 is off the claim for Riccio/Nevin very dangerous angle, Nevin 6 for 19 32% in Spa dirt sprints L3 meets.
#6 last race was in slop, 2 back was turf..both are throw out races, 3 back makes her a player in here, solid work on 7/21 and owns a win over track.
 
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R4

#6 is an obvious contender, not the best trips/setups in her 3 career races.
#10 figures to get plenty of attention at the windows, debut in Ireland on soft turf in field of 23, dwelt at the start only beaten 3.5 lengths, is a half sis to Giant's Causeway and Motion is great with horses making North America debut but the ones he's done well with were racing with lasix, this one isn't.
I'm reaching a little but that's how you make $ in this game, #5 is 15-1 ml...could see an improvement stretching out, is freshened for this start and Pletcher historically has his runners ready to go early in the meet. NOTE: last 3 meets at Spa, Pletcher 0 for 9 with his cutbacks but 13/37 35% with his stretchouts.
 
Play2win said:
R4

#6 is an obvious contender, not the best trips/setups in her 3 career races.
#10 figures to get plenty of attention at the windows, debut in Ireland on soft turf in field of 23, dwelt at the start only beaten 3.5 lengths, is a half sis to Giant's Causeway and Motion is great with horses making North America debut but the ones he's done well with were racing with lasix, this one isn't.
I'm reaching a little but that's how you make $ in this game, #5 is 15-1 ml...could see an improvement stretching out, is freshened for this start and Pletcher historically has his runners ready to go early in the meet. NOTE: last 3 meets at Spa, Pletcher 0 for 9 with his cutbacks but 13/37 35% with his stretchouts.
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#3 has to be mentioned, last start was on dirt and 2 back on yielding turf both are throw outs..three back was a nice effort vs horse that came back to win in next start, Mott off to a great start at meet.
 
I've been going through the PPs this morning. I like #1 in the first race. #5 in race 2. Looking at #2 in race 4.

Interested in your thoughts on race 7; I think my pick today is coming from that race.
 
R5

With early speeds of 1,2,3 I think #4 should have a great setup here, also could setup for #6 who had no chance in last, grade 3 race off layoff, has run well at Spa in past.
 
Dollaz said:
I've been going through the PPs this morning. I like #1 in the first race. #5 in race 2. Looking at #2 in race 4.

Interested in your thoughts on race 7; I think my pick today is coming from that race.
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R7 could be best betting race on card, right now looking at 1,6,9 as my contenders
 
Play2win said:
R3

I'm going to take a shot again 3/5 ML fav #1 who could win, exits graded stakes company.
#2 is off the claim for Riccio/Nevin very dangerous angle, Nevin 6 for 19 32% in Spa dirt sprints L3 meets.
#6 last race was in slop, 2 back was turf..both are throw out races, 3 back makes her a player in here, solid work on 7/21 and owns a win over track.
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Good luck, if speed holds for a change you might be on to something. I just don't see any reason why they're Sweet Whiskey in here other than to blow through an available condition for nice $. She's not in for a tag as far as I can tell.
 
Play2win said:
R3

I'm going to take a shot against 3/5 ML fav #1 who could win, exits graded stakes company.
#2 is off the claim for Riccio/Nevin very dangerous angle, Nevin 6 for 19 32% in Spa dirt sprints L3 meets.
#6 last race was in slop, 2 back was turf..both are throw out races, 3 back makes her a player in here, solid work on 7/21 and owns a win over track.
Click to expand...
Also Sweet Whiskey was recently scratched from an Alw race at Bel, can't be viewed as a positive in any way
 
Gandolf said:
Good luck, if speed holds for a change you might be on to something. I just don't see any reason why they're Sweet Whiskey in here other than to blow through an available condition for nice $. She's not in for a tag as far as I can tell.
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It's a prep for Ballerina
 
Play2win said:
R2

From a class stand point #3 lays over this field but not sure the 8 yo has enough left in the tank, huge drop down and Jacobson is plenty capable with these types, 0 for 6 at distance though, hasn't won in two years...
#4 drops in from NW1X races, if #3 can't get back to his good races #4 certainly fits with these, similar layoff which produced a great Spa effort last year. C Englehart 17-7-2-4 82% ROI dirt sprint Claimers under $40k last 3 Spa meets.
#5 is off the Claim for Esler who won Sundays last race with horse 2nd off the claim.
#1 route to sprint solid trainer move but horse appears off form
#6 is off claim, Javy rides but will take money even though moving up in class, pass for me
Click to expand...
Also #5 Jeter, only one out of last race to cover more ground than winner, 20 more feet than winner according to Trakus
 
R6

#6 adds blinkers, turf to dirt, could be lone speed in here
#7 nice debut for trainer that doesn't really have them cranked up in 1st start, should improve with a race under his belt, nice wide run after slow start, covered most ground in race, ran 31 feet more than winner.
#9 drops in class but trainer 0 for last 2 meets, 1 for last 3 meets
#5 may take money, has had chances imo, 4 place finishes makes tough to trust on front end, trainer 0 for 49 last 3 Spa meets.
 
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R4

#6 is an obvious contender, not the best trips/setups in her 3 career races.
#10 figures to get plenty of attention at the windows, debut in Ireland on soft turf in field of 23, dwelt at the start only beaten 3.5 lengths, is a half sis to Giant's Causeway and Motion is great with horses making North America debut but the ones he's done well with were racing with lasix, this one isn't.
I'm reaching a little but that's how you make $ in this game, #5 is 15-1 ml...could see an improvement stretching out, is freshened for this start and Pletcher historically has his runners ready to go early in the meet. NOTE: last 3 meets at Spa, Pletcher 0 for 9 with his cutbacks but 13/37 35% with his stretchouts.



#3 has to be mentioned, last start was on dirt and 2 back on yielding turf both are throw outs..three back was a nice effort vs horse that came back to win in next start, Mott off to a great start at meet.


Also had to throw in #9 20-1 ML, ran a race in debut that makes her fit here, that was 1 1/4 tough task 1st out, then hit gate and put in wide trip in next start.
 
Monday Late Pick 4

Race 6 - Going to try to get away with just the 6 & 9 here. #9 is the lone horse dropping down for a tag, comes in 3rd off layoff, cutting back a 1/2 furlong, was stakes placed late last year and has 3 of the top 4 speed figures in the race. Junior, who just authored a 12/1 upset in the 2nd, rides #6, who's moving from turf to dirt, route to sprint, 3rd off the layoff, and adds blinkers to his already front-running style. Should be on the engine with turnback fitness to stay the trip. If they fail there's about four others with a shot.

Race 7 - Really fun looking turf sprint group. I'm using 1, 8, 9. All three will be stalking the pace and are turning back from 6 furlongs which I prefer to those stretching out from 5. The one early horse that worries me is #4, as he won this event last year and has been in a similar training pattern, although his form is not quite as good and he won't get the lead with #3 firing alongside.

Race 8 - 3, 7, 10 in a muddled pace scenario. #3 drops from an open Grade 3 stake against the likes of Quality Rocks and Lady Zuzu and gets Castellano. Talent-wise she's the only horse in the field to break her maiden since the start of 2014 at the open special weight level on turf. #7 is easily the fastest horse in the race, but moves from dirt to turf and comes off a 6 month layoff. However her string of sharp works indicates she's well intentioned, and with her front-running style she's a definite wire threat. If a hot pace develops #10 showed a solid middle move to win first time out in a professional manner for Chad Brown. No reason to think she can't improve here. Would not talk anyone of the 4, 6 or 11 as price possibles.

Race 9 - A thoroughly mediocre group here. Will use the two class droppers #3 (who also gets blinkers) and #7, along with #6 coming from the hot connection of Junior/Mott. I would kick myself if I didn't also include the Ward first timer, #10 in this subpar group, although debuting at Maiden Claiming isn't a ringing endorsement. But the 12/1 morning line is too good to pass up. Will try to beat #9, who is 0 for 3 at the level but gets Castellano to stick around on the getaway race. Back up with him if alive this far.

6,9 / 1,8,9 / 3,7,10 / 3,6,7,10 $36
 
These jocks are continually leaving the closers with too much to do in the stretch. It's not that long people! They must be used to racing at Woodbine or Kentucky Downs.
 
Jesus just take the early speed and you're good, not entertaining racing to watch at all
 
Gandolf said:
Monday Late Pick 4

Race 6 - Going to try to get away with just the 6 & 9 here. #9 is the lone horse dropping down for a tag, comes in 3rd off layoff, cutting back a 1/2 furlong, was stakes placed late last year and has 3 of the top 4 speed figures in the race. Junior, who just authored a 12/1 upset in the 2nd, rides #6, who's moving from turf to dirt, route to sprint, 3rd off the layoff, and adds blinkers to his already front-running style. Should be on the engine with turnback fitness to stay the trip. If they fail there's about four others with a shot.

Race 7 - Really fun looking turf sprint group. I'm using 1, 8, 9. All three will be stalking the pace and are turning back from 6 furlongs which I prefer to those stretching out from 5. The one early horse that worries me is #4, as he won this event last year and has been in a similar training pattern, although his form is not quite as good and he won't get the lead with #3 firing alongside.

Race 8 - 3, 7, 10 in a muddled pace scenario. #3 drops from an open Grade 3 stake against the likes of Quality Rocks and Lady Zuzu and gets Castellano. Talent-wise she's the only horse in the field to break her maiden since the start of 2014 at the open special weight level on turf. #7 is easily the fastest horse in the race, but moves from dirt to turf and comes off a 6 month layoff. However her string of sharp works indicates she's well intentioned, and with her front-running style she's a definite wire threat. If a hot pace develops #10 showed a solid middle move to win first time out in a professional manner for Chad Brown. No reason to think she can't improve here. Would not talk anyone of the 4, 6 or 11 as price possibles.

Race 9 - A thoroughly mediocre group here. Will use the two class droppers #3 (who also gets blinkers) and #7, along with #6 coming from the hot connection of Junior/Mott. I would kick myself if I didn't also include the Ward first timer, #10 in this subpar group, although debuting at Maiden Claiming isn't a ringing endorsement. But the 12/1 morning line is too good to pass up. Will try to beat #9, who is 0 for 3 at the level but gets Castellano to stick around on the getaway race. Back up with him if alive this far.

6,9 / 1,8,9 / 3,7,10 / 3,6,7,10 $36
Click to expand...
GL Gandy. We both can hit this with 6/1,9/3,10/3,7
 
R7: #1 was visually impressive in last two, spa win at distance last year..#6 was making what potentially could've been winning move on inside when shutoff stretch run in most recent start, 30% trainer on the year...#9 is 2nd off layoff comes out of race won by entry mate, turf monster at Parx makes this shipper dangerous, should get nice pace to run down
 
New blinkers might've had something to do with it. Should've known better than to expect improvement, the comments in the pps suggest this horse is a bit of a head case. 6 of his 8 races he's had an issue:

Weakened
Gave way
Lugged out
Hard to rate
Rank early
Hesitated start

Now 7 of 9
 
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