NFL Week 17 ***2 hours til kick off but screw it lets start the IN GAME***

[KowboyKarl]

Fins should win, just not by 7.5 points. Thats insane

+8.5 :shake:

 

[Two Utes]

if the dude is hitting less than 46% thats pathetic. a trained Mouse who just throws his feces at plays would hit 50%...most ppl hit 50 but the juice kills em. if he legit hits 40% u can quit ur job and make a living fading him

If that were true books would make money hand over fist, imho

 

[KowboyKarl]

I single handedly broke silva's leg when I made my first ufc bet last night. Ff can't do that

:rofl:

 

[D-Woww]

If that were true books would make money hand over fist, imho

i mean doesnt straight math say that somebody who knows nothing about sports would hit 50%?

 

[Two Utes]

Wouldn't be, damn phone

 

[P-Unit]

Jared Allen lining up at TD. and they overthrew him. lmao

 

[P-Unit]

JA was wide fucking open

 

[D-Woww]

if u hit 50% u lose...if you hit 56% u can be a professional bettor. as small as 6% sounds it makes the diff

 

[Schrute]

Jared Allen so awesome

 

[KowboyKarl]

if the dude is hitting less than 46% thats pathetic. a trained Mouse who just throws his feces at plays would hit 50%...most ppl hit 50 but the juice kills em. if he legit hits 40% u can quit ur job and make a living fading him

Seeing the light now...not sure FF even hits 40%

 

[Marlo]

would have been awesome for him to get that P

 

[Two Utes]

i mean doesnt straight math say that somebody who knows nothing about sports would hit 50%?

Math says that's true but I don't think that's the case. If you flip a coin 10 times it rarely comes up 50/50

 

[KowboyKarl]

bones where was the CTG open invite?

This

 

[Marlo]

damn, vikes

 

[Schrute]

Fuckin Cassell

 

[cogenman]

Cassel you asshole

 

[KowboyKarl]

Lions get pick in end zone

 

[P-Unit]

cassell picked in the EZ

 

[cogenman]

needed a fg minimum

 

[~Utah]

to say that anyone hitting under 46% might as well throw Mouse feces against the wall is ridiculous. In the last 7 years I've had 1 season under 55% in the NFL, in 2008. This year I will probably have a losing season unless I have an insane playoffs. Shit happens, people lose.

Marlo a few years ago was on fire, dude was hitting around 65% a couple years back. Then the next year he was hitting like 40%.

I like you Dan, I can't say that about many people here. But don't get too cocky. Your having a great year now, but you may look back at this thread next year and wonder what the fuck. Everyone has bad years

 

[D-Woww]

Math says that's true but I don't think that's the case. If you flip a coin 10 times it rarely comes up 50/50

but if you flipped it infinity times hypothetically it would be

 

[Schrute]

Someone who knows nothing about sports would do better than a casual sports fan

 

[spanishshark]

Hell of a 3rd down and inches stand by Fins

 

[tee*dub]

cam newton missing receivers all over the place

 

[KowboyKarl]

around 42% in NCAAB this year

You're doing a fine job, Alex. :shake:

 

[spanishshark]

cam newton missing receivers all over the place

Atlanta going to F'em up today. That was my favorite play

 

[Marlo]

to say that anyone hitting under 46% might as well throw Mouse feces against the wall is ridiculous. In the last 7 years I've had 1 season under 55% in the NFL, in 2008. This year I will probably have a losing season unless I have an insane playoffs. Shit happens, people lose.

Marlo a few years ago was on fire, dude was hitting around 65% a couple years back. Then the next year he was hitting like 40%.

I like you Dan, I can't say that about many people here. But don't get too cocky. Your having a great year now, but you may look back at this thread next year and wonder what the fuck. Everyone has bad years

Alex just nailed it. I've had years in the NFL where I crushed, last year I got fucking murdered. I've crushed bowls last few years, this year I can't pick my nose

 

[~Utah]

You're doing a fine job, Alex. :shake:

you are a real dickhead you know that?

 

[P-Unit]

but if you flipped it infinity times hypothetically it would be

well, you don't have an infinite number of games or an infinite bankroll. that's why you can't expect 50% in betting. You quit after a horrible run (0-8 streak for instance) and you don't have a chance to get it back. It's called survivorship bias...

 

[D-Woww]

to say that anyone hitting under 46% might as well throw Mouse feces against the wall is ridiculous. In the last 7 years I've had 1 season under 55% in the NFL, in 2008. This year I will probably have a losing season unless I have an insane playoffs. Shit happens, people lose.

Marlo a few years ago was on fire, dude was hitting around 65% a couple years back. Then the next year he was hitting like 40%.

I like you Dan, I can't say that about many people here. But don't get too cocky. Your having a great year now, but you may look back at this thread next year and wonder what the fuck. Everyone has bad years

dude this will likely be my best season ever. i know that and thats not what im implying. seasons are small sample sizes, which are prone to crazy variance. im not a 65% capper. marlo is not a 40% capper. its all about long term.

if you bet for 30 years and all the 65% years and the 40% years average out, the goal is to be right around 56%...if you are you can say you are very succuessful

 

[Two Utes]

to say that anyone hitting under 46% might as well throw Mouse feces against the wall is ridiculous. In the last 7 years I've had 1 season under 55% in the NFL, in 2008. This year I will probably have a losing season unless I have an insane playoffs. Shit happens, people lose.

Marlo a few years ago was on fire, dude was hitting around 65% a couple years back. Then the next year he was hitting like 40%.

I like you Dan, I can't say that about many people here. But don't get too cocky. Your having a great year now, but you may look back at this thread next year and wonder what the fuck. Everyone has bad years

Well said

 

[tee*dub]

Atlanta going to F'em up today. That was my favorite play

certainly looking good so far and setting up a decent possibility for HT play on Car.

 

[spanishshark]

You're doing a fine job, Alex. :shake:

Don't make fade comments about our members here. Not warranted and pisses people off, including me. :shake:

 

[cogenman]

if you think ATL can win, better get on NO now before the books pull it off the board or it goes to 13-14

 

[~Utah]

ive got no problem someone fading me, but to rub it in my face seems like a Grade - A dick move

 

[D-Woww]

alex i have said week after week that my % is not sustainable at all...i made like 60 or so bets this year...all i want is 56% after 1000 bets

 

[Schrute]

Steez gonna put them out of their misery shortly

 

[hugh613]

Someone who knows nothing about sports would do better than a casual sports fan

That's true. Hard to eliminate bias from the equation, no matter how hard you try.

 

[D-Woww]

That's true. Hard to eliminate bias from the equation, no matter how hard you try.

thats why i dont bet on or against home teams

 

[Schrute]

Sometimes I think the best way to bet would be to send the lines to a buddy who's got a few kids and watches the primetime games only and then just fade what he likes

 

[D-Woww]

well thats false i fade teh shit out of the sixers

 

[KowboyKarl]

Someone who knows nothing about sports would do better than a casual sports fan

Yep...no emotion, no "I know this" or "I know that", no influence from sports media/hype/etc

 

[cogenman]

ive got no problem someone fading me, but to rub it in my face seems like a Grade - A dick move

you've had some pretty good seasons in the past. you'll have them back soon. :shake:

 

[Schrute]

thats why i dont bet on or against home teams

So you don't bet at all?

 

[Two Utes]

alex i have said week after week that my % is not sustainable at all...i made like 60 or so bets this year...all i want is 56% after 1000 bets

Where I took exception to you comment was the Mouse hitting 50%, that's just not close to true

 

[Schrute]

thats why i dont bet on or against home teams

Neutral games only for Dan

 

[P-Unit]

thats why i dont bet on or against home teams

huh, if that's the case you are missing out an a pretty significant advantage.

 

[~Utah]

dude this will likely be my best season ever. i know that and thats not what im implying. seasons are small sample sizes, which are prone to crazy variance. im not a 65% capper. marlo is not a 40% capper. its all about long term.

if you bet for 30 years and all the 65% years and the 40% years average out, the goal is to be right around 56%...if you are you can say you are very succuessful

agreed. If you know someone betting a career 40%, then that is an impressive streak, unfortunately you will never meet that guy. Law of averages says you almost cant do it unless you are extremely unlucky.

 

[Gandolf]

Game over at Heinz. 14-0. Bell TD

 

[~Utah]

agreed. If you know someone betting a career 40%, then that is an impressive streak, unfortunately you will never meet that guy. Law of averages says you almost cant do it unless you are extremely unlucky.

or theyve quit a long time ago because they are out of money