It was a bad bet and deserved to lose. I really try not to talk myself in to bets and I rarely do so, but this was one of those bets
I still feel like it should be series that will have more Under results than Over, but the total isn't set far from the right one and it's very hard (at the moment) to know which game will go Over or Under...
On to tonight's games:
Portland - Denver
This should be an auto bet on Denver and Over, but it's very hard to pull the trigger here. When you have variable like 4OT game less than 48 hours ago between same teams, it's so hard to know how team/ player will react.
Checked stats few seasons ago and losing teams off 2+ OT games tend to do much better the game after, than winning teams off 2+ OT. Probably that feeling that they could have won, drives them. But... Jokic logged 65 minutes and he is absolutely crucial to the Nuggets.
Still... This is a game that a loss for Denver can mean losing the series and I still feel that they are the better team between the two.
I think that Malone is partially to blame for the loss. I understand him wanting to play with the players that got him to OT, but Denver's strength is in their depth and he should have mixed it up a lot more in the overtime. Maybe even use Thomas on offense against Blazers very tired legs.
As for the total, here it's very hard to tell how the 4ot game will come in to play. Teams can play sloppy defense or they can struggle from long distance and the shots will fall short.
I will probably do same in game betting, after seeing the way teams react to Game 3, but don't want to force bets (Denver and Over) here. 4OT is unknown that is very hard to predict.
Will be on Denver and Over in Game 5 probably though...
Skip
Philadelphia - Toronto
Embid gave his best game of the series and the main question is, can he do that again or not. He played Gasol several times, even when he was still in Memphis and always struggled. What changed? I'm not sure something changed, but as always, sometimes, players catch a hot hand and Embid made few early baskets, got his confidence and never looked back.
This game was one of the best performances by the Sixers and the main question is not if they can repeat that (because they probably can't), but can they play at least at 90% of that level and if so, will it be enough to win.
Raptors need to do some thinking. Lowry is a hole on defense and if he doesn't contribute on offense, what's left? Ibaka and Gasol were terrible and maybe they should switch them and start with Serge and bring Gasol off the bench. Ibaka lacks confidence coming off the bench and Gasol is a smart player and giving him few minutes to watch Embid, may help his defense. He is also older and maybe it's better for him to get Embid, when he is a bit tired.
Also, I think that Sixers won the game in first quarter already. Yes, they lead only 32 - 29 after first 12 minutes, but while Brown went deep in to his rotation already in the first quarter, Nurse mostly reacted to things on the floor and usually a bit too late. That lead to Sixers managing to get both their stars (Embid and Jimmy) the needed rest in first quarter, but also to hold the lead and Sixers never looked back from there.
I don't know Nurse well enough to guess, how much did he learn from Game 3 and how much will he change things up. One thing is clear, it's Raptors turn to react and while I expect them to do just that, the odds are just not good enough for me to gamble on that. After three games we seen, Sixers at home, should be small favorites and that's exactly where they at.
Maybe if I see Nurse reacting the right way and the line getting to 4 - 5 points, I will see value in small bet on the Raptors, but easy skip for me.
Skip.
Best of luck everybody!!!
