NBA thoughts and plays playoffs 18-19 season

Will be away till Saturday so will post thoughts and plays for the four next scheduled games:

Denver - Portland

Was hoping to see lower line, but I still believe in the Nuggets and I still think they should win the series and 4.5 points aren't enough to stop me from taking a shot at them, but will take down a unit or two...
4 games, four single digits wins, so ATS is always a problem in such tight series.
On the other hand, from what I saw (about two games), Denver at their best, played much much better than Portland at their best and when Denver plays well, Portland can't find any answers. Portland on the other hand, mostly makes runs and while it can be more than enough, the longer the series goes, the more chances for Denver to find answers to Portland's bursts than Portland to Denver's flow (in my opinion of course).
Jokic (and his knee) appears to be fine, Murray was great in the last game and while I wish Malone would use his deep bench more, Denver should still be fine.
About the bench, I can understand Stotts playing short rotation, with his bench (Leonard probably the only one there that can even slightly contribute and Collins taken his munutes), but why Lyles isn't playing to allow Jokic 3 - 4 more minutes of rest? Why Thomas with his speed and instant offense can't close out quarters, using the fact that Blazers a bit tired (and make them even more tired on defense)?
I would have managed minutes different and use the depth to my advantage, especially given the fact that Denver maybe heading to two straight seven games series, but still... with the Nuggets tonight.
Denver -4.5, 1.94 odds - 6 units play

Golden State - Houston

It's Rockets against KD. At the moment, Houston simply the better team and one can argue that Dubs weren't the best team even in the series against the Clippers...
As I said before the series started, Houston can handle Dubs offense. KD is on another level right now, but Rockets do a hell of a job on defense and that's what helps them even when they are 1 from 100 behind the three point line in the fourth quarter...
Rockets struggle on offense, but as long as they play the same level of defense, they can win in Game 5 or at least should stay close.
I believe that Rockets win this one SU, but if you can get 6 points in a series that is tied 2 - 2 and the biggest margin of win was 6 points, you take the spread.
Rockets +6, 1.94 odds - 7 units play

Will post thoughts on the other two games in a bit.

Best of luck everyone!!!
 
Milwaukee - Boston

Game 4 felt like elimination game and Bucks won it. Boston missed tons of open looks and both teams shot abysmal, but while Bucks scored their momentum shots, that created a run or started a comeback, Boston missed every chance they got.
One very interesting point is that Bucks best minutes so far this series, are with Giannis off the floor. Didn't see Game 2, but in Game 1 and Game 3 they made a comeback and taken a lead with him on the bench and tonight also from a tight game, managed to get a run, with both him and Middleton on the bench.
Tonight, despite winning by 12 points, Bledsoe had -2 +- rating, Middleton 0 and Giannis only +4. Game 3, in which Bucks won by 7 points, Giannis was +7, Middleton +3 and Bledsoe -9. In Game 1, that Boston won by 22 points, Giannis had -24, Middleton -11 and Bledsoe -12.
Without Giannis, the flow on Bucks offense is much better and Boston's focus on him, causes the team to collapse on both sides of the floor.
Game 5 feels like a blow out win for the Bucks. Boston will have to gather their strength from 2 home losses and collapses in the third quarter to give a fight and as I see it, Bucks have much better chance to win by 20+ points with Boston waiving white flag than Boston managing to figure what to do.
Still... I can't side with the Bucks here. The reason for this line is mostly emotional - based on assumption that Boston will be broken after the loss, but no one knows what's really goes on inside their heads.
Can see any scenario play out. Boston winning it, Boston losing in a tight game and Boston waiving white flag and getting trashed...
Easy skip for me.

Toronto - Philadelphia

I like the Raptors here, but don't want to make more than one play a day.
6 points is not a lot to lay, though 3 out of 4 games so far in this series been covered by underdog (and won straight up).
Embid struggles and in 4 games, only one he played like a true superstar and that was also the only game in which the Sixers looked scary and played amazing game.
Butler plays great, but Kawhi is better and Simmons and Lowry cancel each other more or less and the same goes for Harris and Siakam. Toronto is deeper and plays at home and if Embid can't play at the level of Game 3 again, Toronto can and should win tonight.
Still, I like the Denver play more...
Skip.
 
Rockets play won, but hoped they win the game. But main issue is KD's health...
 
Quick thoughts on tonight games:
Sixers - Raptors

Toronto should be favorites, clearly they are the better team. But... Sixers also talented and have their backs to the wall. If Toronto been 2.30+ odds, probably would have taken as value bet. Match ups really favor the Raptors here. But as favorites, can't see any reason...
Skip

Portland - Denver

I like Denver here, but it's very hard in an even series, to bet against a team that has their back to the wall...
I liked Denver -1.5 games for the series and I still think it should be a winner (though didn't take it), but 4 points is very small line.
Took it myself, but without any research, so will keep it unofficial)

Basically better matchups face good teams that have their back to the wall. Good chance for a split here, but who can be sure which one will go to Game 7 (to bw honest, Portland - Denver series deserves it more imo)...
 
Houston - Golden State

Durant is great, but that is mad overreaction imo...
Curry knows how to carry this team and again... biggest margin in end of the game for either team was 6 points...
Unless Dubs waive a white flag and focus on Game 7, no reason for a blow out...
Warriors +7.5, 1,92 odds - 6 units

Best of luck everybody!
 
Glad bet won, but feel bad for the Rockets and for the fans. This one deserved Game 7, with each game being decided in the final minute...
 
Sorry but the Rockets got exactly what they deserved. D’Antoni planned badly presenting a defensive scheme that castrated the team’s rebounding capabilities, and the Rockets players were negligent about valuing possessions. If they had played even half way up to their capability, they would have blown the badly disadvantaged Warriors off the court. Your bet was right all along...
 
Denver - Portland

I continue to like the Nuggets here. Experience adds something to Portland, but still doesn't come near the importance of HCA in Game 7 - this is basically what the regular season is all about - the right to play Game 7 at home and Denver earned that right.
Murray is having a good series and Denver got another fire in their back court to minimize the advantage of Lillard and CJ, but I can't see how Portland answers in the frontcourt to Milsap and Jokic.
Denver proved they can handle the pressure of Game 7 at home in the first round, don't see it play out different today.
I said it was an Over series before it started and 5 out of 6 games went to Over (one due to OT). I have a strong believe in Over today as well, but it's very hard to bet Over in Game 7, where emotions can come in to play and hands may be a bit shaky, so pass.
Score around 119 - 107 sounds about right here.
Denver -5.5, 1.93 odds - 7 units play

Toronto - Philadelphia

Toronto has the advantage both experience wise and home court wise and I been writing a lot about the match ups as well. Sixers have one of the best starters in the league and they can win anyone on any given night, but advantage is one sided here imo, as I wrote many times.
Ibaka and Gasol have the needed experience and this is first Game 7 for Embid and Simmons. Butler is great, but Kawhi is a better player and has much more experience in the playoffs. Even Lowry has 24.66 points average in the three Game 7 he played in his career.
As for the total, the total been dropping slowly from 223 points in Game 1 to 209 a as it stands today. 14 points is a lot... It's very hard to bet an Under with such a huge drop of a total. It's especially suspicious given the fact that two last games went Over (even easy Over) and still the total continues to drop.
Hunch feeling this one will go Over as well. Both teams have good offensive arsenal to score 100+ points and with a total of 209 points only, if both teams reach that 100 points mark, it should be enough for the Over.
115 - 103 makes sense here for me.
Toronto -6, 1.91 odds - 6 units play

I thought about playing only Denver here, but overall, there are good reasons to bet the home teams and both have small red flags as well. I would be shocked if both visitors win and it makes more sense to bet on both home teams to advance.
Parlay of Denver and Toronto makes sense as well, but betting on both home teams ATS should result either in a split or 2 - 0, so I like the risk here.

Best of luck everybody!
 
Golden State - Portland

Teams played each other two straight seasons in 2016 and 2017 and Dubs won 4 - 0 and 4 - 1.
From that point of view, Durant's injury is the best thing for Dubs backers, because they saw how fragile championship hopes. No reason to extend the series and risk more players getting hurt. On top of that, without KD, no way Dubs take their opponent lightly.
Obviously in 4 - 1 win, three seasons ago, Durant was still a Thunder, so Dubs can easily win the series relying on Splash Brothers only.
I like Warriors to win the series in 4/5 games. Why?
1) I believe that at home, GSW will not need KD to get to 2 - 0 start and good chances that KD will play in Game 3 or 4, so Dubs will be in full roster in Portland
2) Dubs -1.5 means that it takes under consideration the fact that Portland might win a game (something that is absolutely not a given btw).
3) Jokic gave Portland really hard time. Green no way near Jokic, yet I still think he can be huge problem for the Blazers to deal with, because all the little things that were missing for Denver (hustle, momentum plays and so on), that's exactly what Green brings.
4) Match ups. CJ and Lillard took turns winning the first two series, but Curry and Klay is a whole other level. Without KD, they should dominate the game, while Hood's potential absence, will make it even harder for Portland to find their x-factor.

As for totals, I continue to expect Over results to dominate for Portland. In the last 9 games teams played each other in the playoffs, Over was in 7 out of 9 games (4 - 0 in Portland and 3 - 2 in Oakland). Both teams prefer instant offense, both are back court oriented and have solid history of Over, playing H2H.

No bets in Game 1, but will bet on the series.
Warriors -2.5 games, 2.18 odds - 10 units play

Best of luck everybody!
 
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I like Portland and the Raptors to meet in the finals -- with the Raptors winning. But I do I hope I am wrong so you win. Enjoy the games, should be some great basketball ahead.
 
Milwaukee - Toronto

Very hard for me to form an opinion here. I do wonder if it's the first time that in both Conference Finals, you have brothers facing each other (though Pau is injured)...
So far, underdogs are 4 - 0 ATS and SU in regular season meetings between the teams, with no less than 3 road wins, so go figure...
I do believe that Bucks are very talented, but they are one year away from becoming a true contender. They need to get more experience and how to use Giannis better. On the other hand, they won the series against Boston, mostly due to their ability to play without Giannis, making their big runs actually when Greek Freak was out...
On paper, I do believe that Giannis will face Kawhi, Ibaka, Green and Gasol and it's more impressive than Boston's defense on him. On the other hand, Stevens couldn't solve the puzzle named Bucks, so it's hard to believe that Nurse will be able to.

Bottom line, have no idea, but should be very even series. I think that Raptors have more experience and slightly better roster, but Bucks in better form and have the better coach.
Kawhi is the hottest player on the planet right now, so that makes it even more interesting.
Will probably bet in Game 2, on a loser of Game 1, but right now, easy skip!

Best of luck everybody!
 
Golden State - Portland

I think that Portland prepared for Game 1 poorly or they just can't do anything. They didn't try to stop Steph at all, which is really surprising. They just allowed him to get open shot after open shot and as a result, he outscored both Portland scorers combined, while shooting less...
On defense, GSW focused on Lillard and gave him the same treatment that Boston gave Giannis. Lillard is not in a very good form, so that plus good team defense on him...
Bottom line, that game felt like 30 points blowout for 47 out of 48 minutes, even when Portland came within a basket from the Dubs. You just knew that Dubs will turn it on and win easily.
Have no reason to think it will be different tonight. Yes, Portland may shoot better and missed tons of open looks, but the difference between the teams is just huge...
If you believe in Portland, I think that TT Over on them is safer than ATS bet.
I really can't see Portland win this one, without going Over their total.
I will stick with my series bet and nothing more.
Skip

Tomorrow will probably be on the Raptors.

Best of luck everybody!
 
Portland - Golden State

My math is very simple. Last three years, in Portland, in H2H games, 6 - 2 in favor of Over with 231 points average. In Oakland the average the totals are split 4 - 4 and overall there are 219 points average.
Portland's defense is just horrible. They don't even try to stop Curry or Klay. The amount of easy points missed by the Warriors in Game 2 was mind blowing with horrible misses and terrible turnovers.
Portland's only hope is to outscore the Dubs and that is the type of game that Golden State would always welcome.
I believe that both games in Portland (if total stays the same) will go Over and will probably bet accordingly.
Over 221 points, 1.95 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!
 
There must be some major problem with Portland — maybe they all just gave up because so many of them are more badly injured than people are aware of...What else would cause a team to play a conference final game with the same energy as if it was a Monday night game in January?
 
Lillard is injured, Kanter has Ramadan issue and Portland never was a team that worth WC Finals... Without Nurkic, they were underdogs in both series they won and that's mostly because Lillard was amazingly hot against OKC and McCollum took over against Denver. Now Lillard is getting GSW's Harden treatment and McCollum struggles alone. Not to mention that both never been players that can be solid all year long. They both are players that always had hot and cold stretches... the moment that hot stretch ended, cold one started and you can't get a cold stretch against GSW and win...

Of course all the missed FT's are also psychological effect - they play the Splash brothers and always being compared and they have to work very hard for every bucket they score...

The fact that GSW won without KD and overall, without Iggy (the comeback started with him on the bench and he never returned) is nothing short of amazing... Not to mention that the missed dunk by Bell could have been major momentum change (but than CJ missed a free throw and things balanced out).


And of course... Draymond Green - I wrote before the series started how importans he is, but he is even more important. He does all the little things and Portland just doesn't have anyone that can do nothing about it in the paint...
 
Toronto - Milwaukee

Didn't watch the first two games, but hoping to see this one.
The numbers for home team down 0 - 2 is well known and Raptors still a good team, that came really close to winning Game 1.
On the other hand, it reminds (slightly) Bucks - Celtics series, with Bucks starting slow and winning four in a row. The main question is, can Raptors find the answers against the Bucks. On paper, no reason why not. They got deep roster, good defenders on wings and in the paint and tons of experience, much more than the Bucks anyway...
It's hard to bet, no seeing the series, since every series has it's own rhythm, but it was suppose to be very even series, with many people giving the edge to the Dinos, due to their experience advantage...
Gasol must improve obviously, but on the other hand, Lowry seems better and at home, I expect Ibaka, Green and Gasol to play much better as well.
But this is basically boring bet on home team in Game 3, being 0 - 2 behind...
Raptors -2, 1.95 odds - 7 units play

Portland - Golden State

Really hoping to cash in my GSW -2.5 series bet, but pissed that the Over bet lost.
This time we get Over 220 points for very nice odds, so I will take it.
Game 3 had all the reasons to go Over and after 119 points at HT and Blazers looking sharp, it was very hard to predict the 33 points in second half collapse.
Dubs are very solid as far as scoring goes... 116, 114, 110 points... With Iggy out, I expect offense to be better and defense a bit worse (though Iggy hardly played in the second half, when Dubs made their defensive stops), but it all comes down to Portland's ability to put points on board.
65 points in Game 2 at HT and 66 points in Game 3 at HT, but couldn't come close to those numbers in second half.
I will split the bet between two halves, hoping to win both.
Over 112 points at HT, 1.94 odds - 6 units play
Over 220 points overall, 2.00 odds - 6 units play

Best of luck everybody!
 
Doubt will make any plays in the ECF, so can close this round. 4W-1L, including 10 units on Dubs series.
Will post thoughts on the game in Toronto later on...
 
divol said:
Doubt will make any plays in the ECF, so can close this round. 4W-1L, including 10 units on Dubs series.
Will post thoughts on the game in Toronto later on...
Click to expand...
Excellent job on the totals tonight.

Great work and patience once again.
 
Toronto - Milwaukee

On paper, Bucks should make it 3 - 1. I said many times that teams playing off a loss in OT, especially if it's against the same team, should be more motivated and have some edge. Numbers support that claim a bit (though not too much), but that's just shows that it's not the only thing to consider, but still gives Bucks an edge.
On top of that, Kawhi's injury last game, really hurt him in Game 3 and who knows will it effect him in Game 4 and it's obvious that without him at his best... Raps don't have a shot.
Overall, Bucks whole playoffs, makes 1 - 2 runs that kill the game. Usually led by Lopez/ Hill/ Mirotic (one of the role players). That makes it very hard to get away from them to a safe margin and Raps are not consistent enough to play solid the whole 48 minutes.
Nurse rotation is very hard to understand. With Meeks and Lin, both on the bench, both players that can play, he chooses to use very short rotation, ignoring the fact that some of his rotation is cold as ice. VanVleet and Green combined shot 2 from 20 and still managed to logged 30+ minutes each... If you add 2 from 9 that Ibaka scored, you get 4 from 29 and -10 combined in plus/minus column.
In a solid game of both Lowry and Gasol (who was terrible in the first two games) and with great help by Powell from the bench and they still needed double OT and Giannis fouling out to win it...
So why not just take the Bucks?
1) Bucks are the better team, but the line reflects just that. Can't see any value in backing Bucks as road favorites against solid opponent
2) Raptors still a good team. Before the series, many thought they will come out on top and they almost won Game 1, they won Game 3, they can play. I don't know what changes Nurse will do, but if I'm him, I'm starting Ibaka and bring Gasol off the bench. Because Ibaka's numbers off the bench and as a starter are drastic and Ibaka from the bench does more harm than good and because you want Gasol still fresh in the final minutes. Also, Raptors got depth in the back court, I would try all 4 players and go with the hot hand and not insist on two players only.
3) Watching the game in Portland, it was very hard not to get a feeling that refs welcomed series extension. It's a long way till Finals and while this theory proved wrong many times, it's hard to ignore the fact that if it will be a tight game, Raps may get some assistance.


Mind says Bucks, hunch says Raptors - so very easy skip here...

Best of luck everybody!
 
Toronto - Milwaukee

Before Game 5, just like before Game 4, my logic said Bucks, but my hunch said Raptors, so stayed clear of the game, but it becomes more and more obvious, that Bucks really lack the experience and that the first time they encountered some difficulties, they are struggling.
For Toronto, this probably the most important game in the history of their franchise. Obviously never been in the NBA Finals and that will be huge for them and on top of that, it should improve their chances of keeping Kawhi (not to mention if they win the title by accident :) ).
Nurse not a great coach in my opinion (the last timeout he took in Game 5 for no reason, could have cost them the game), but coach Bud is just terrible. Bledsoe had very good first half, but I believe that Hill (despite -22 in plus/minus column) and Brogdon would have been much better option and while Lopez (that was second best in +- column) should have played the whole 9 minutes of the final quarter. He scored 8 points, but allowed a lot more, his presence also allowed Gasol to be on the floor and his experience was crucial here as well.
Raptors killed Bucks with Bucks weapon - three pointers and Toronto's confidence and level of play just improved from game to game, starting from Game 3 and they should be full of confidence right now.
I realize that VanVleet won't shoot that great again probably, but as long as Toronto won't crumble under the pressure, it's their game to lose.
Very hard to bet on Toronto not to crumble, but experience is absolutely one sided here with two NBA champs playing for the Raptors (have a feeling Green will show up for Game 6) and Ibaka that played in the NBA Finals, Gasol that been in CF and so on...
Said that I will stay away from this series, but will take a small bet here.
Toronto -2, 2.00 odds - 5 units play

Best of luck everybody!
 
Bucks got everything going their way... refs, three pointers, early foul trouble for Raptors players...
Raptors just got in their head with Giannis afraid to attack and shoot each time Kawhi was on him...
Coach Bud again failed in the playoffs after great regular season...
Btw, was a very easy Under...
5W-1L this round...
 
Toronto - Golden State

It's very easy series to cap on one side and very hard on the other. Golden State will win the series. Very easy to cap. We can talk about Kawhi's form and Durant's absence and Raptors HCA and so on , but too many odd things must happen in order for the Raptors to win it.
On the other hand, to predict if it's a sweep or a 6 games series and so on, much harder...
The feeling is that this series is closer to Portland's series, than the series against Clippers and the Rockets. Why?
A) It's the Finals, no one will take his foot of the pedal
B) No KD, Iggy injured, no one wants to drag the series, because if one of the four (Curry, Klay, Iggy or Draymond) get injured, it can turn in to a series
C) I have yet seen from Toronto 48 minutes of great basketball in one game. Didn't see it from GSW either, but Toronto will need to put such performances at least twice, to have a shot at the series and GSW can play around for many minutes and than turn it on. On top of that, Toronto struggled against the Bucks. Really struggled. Even in their comebacks, erasing big margins and taking the lead, they struggled. Their could be 2 minutes of basketball without a basket and the fact that Bucks managed to go for 7-8 minutes without a field goal, is the only thing that helped Raptors to stay alive. It's not like the Warriors, that can trail by 15 points, score 10 points in a minute and a half and make it a game - Toronto needs too much time and Dubs won't give them that.
D) Experience. Nurse impressed me as far as his life story goes and I like Ibaka, Gasol, Lowry and maybe they deserve a title, but overall... Nurse still needs to outcoach Kerr, Raptors bench needs to play at the same as they did in games 4-6 in ECF and Kawhi needs to continue to play like the best player in the world for 6-7 games...
And... even if all those things will happen, there is a chance, it still won't be enough. Kawhi made his great shot against the Sixers, without the pressure of going home if he misses it (game was tied), Bucks folded much and Raptors made their runs before the final two minutes and in all of the last 4 games, Raptors came in to the final minutes with momentum and a lead. Not sure if they will have the confidence to do the right things if they go to the final minute trailing and need to fight uphill battle to win the game...
Nurse timeout management against the Bucks, was troubling at best...

Bottom line, this title should have Curry's name on it and he deserves to get the MVP and it's very hard to believe it won't be the case. For me, it's also very hard to believe that there will be Game 7 in Toronto. Golden State will probably close it in 4-5 games, but worst case, they will come home, holding 3 - 2 lead and seal the series at home.
Patience pays off sometimes and we see the odds on Golden State -1.5 games slowly rising.

I think that GSW have solid answer for Raptors in the paint, Iggy can make Kawhi's life tough and it's very hard for me to trust Lowry or Raptors bench.
Will avoid betting Game 1, but will take the series bet .
Golden State -1.5 games, 1.72 odds - 10 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
Toronto - Golden State Game 2

First of all, I'm shocked how quickly some people changed their minds about the series after Game 1. I'm not saying it will be the case, but Nets, Magic and Celtics also all won Game 1, some in more convincing way than others, but we all remember how it ended...
One game, no matter how good or bad, is just one game.
I wrote my thoughts about Game 1 in few threads here, but in general, I expect tonight to be different game...
Iggy will play. No one knows how many minutes and how well, but I will assume that his condition is no worse than Kawhi's that looks really injured btw...
That didn't stop him from playing like a beast against the Bucks, but still...
I took Dubs -1.5 and not -2.5, because it was clear that Game 1 is much much more important for the Raptors. A loss in Game 1 and I think we would have seen a sweep. Now, it will probably end in 6 games, like I expected.
Dubs were a bit rusty, didn't know the opponent well and Raptors shown their hand a bit too early. Siakam exploded, Van Vleet was great, Gasol's defense on Curry is a card that I think Nurse pulled out too early - now Kerr will have plenty of time to find the answers to both Raptors big guys.
I still don't know if Dubs will win Game 2 or Game 5 or both, but if I think there is a good chance they will win tonight.
But, I already invested in Dubs series bet (actually took more units after the odds climbed to 1.80, so heavily invested even), so I will take another approach.
Dubs scored 109 points, despite some mind blowing turnovers, few horrible bricks by Iggy and Jerebko and the rust that you could easily see (21 points in first quarter as example).
If Iggy will be limited on minutes, than who ever plays instead, probably won't be as bad on offense as Iggy and we are getting total of 106.5 points for very nice odds.
Toronto at home worth 100 points, so I would assume, that if Dubs win, they should cross 110+ points mark easily. But even if they lose, as we saw in Game 1, they can still go Over the total.
I also expect at least one game in Toronto to go to the wire and we can easily see potential OT here or free throws in the end to extend the game.
113 - 111 in Dubs favor sounds correct more or less here.
Dubs Over 106.5 points, 2.05 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
That over looks like a smart play.

Betting (and losing more than usual) on the Warriors this past season, it has looked to me like there is a point where they are not able to just march in and say “We are the champions, so you, the other team, must lose! Badly!” I am guessing the threshold is crossed when the Warriors are down to playing with role players plus the core 3 of Curry and Thompson and Draymond. They got away with the core 3 vs the Trailblazers, but I am theorizing that was more due to the Trailblazers being very beaten down at the time, not the awesomeness of the Warriors core 3. If the Raptors don’t suffer a brain fart letdown tonight, and keep applying their strong defense, I think they can beat the core 3.

I am wondering if the Warriors are trying to just squeeze as much juice as they possibly can out of Iggy for the next game or 2, to reach the point where Durant can come back and get the Warriors back in the drivers seat. But if the Warriors can beat a fully functional Raptors team with just Curry and Thompson and Draymond, the Raptors are screwed as far as the series is concerned.

Another aspect of this is that Draymond hasn’t even kicked anybody in the nuts yet. Is he going to? How will the Raptors react to that? Lots of variables moving around in this equation...
 
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divol said:
Toronto - Golden State Game 2

First of all, I'm shocked how quickly some people changed their minds about the series after Game 1. I'm not saying it will be the case, but Nets, Magic and Celtics also all won Game 1, some in more convincing way than others, but we all remember how it ended...
One game, no matter how good or bad, is just one game.
I wrote my thoughts about Game 1 in few threads here, but in general, I expect tonight to be different game...
Iggy will play. No one knows how many minutes and how well, but I will assume that his condition is no worse than Kawhi's that looks really injured btw...
That didn't stop him from playing like a beast against the Bucks, but still...
I took Dubs -1.5 and not -2.5, because it was clear that Game 1 is much much more important for the Raptors. A loss in Game 1 and I think we would have seen a sweep. Now, it will probably end in 6 games, like I expected.
Dubs were a bit rusty, didn't know the opponent well and Raptors shown their hand a bit too early. Siakam exploded, Van Vleet was great, Gasol's defense on Curry is a card that I think Nurse pulled out too early - now Kerr will have plenty of time to find the answers to both Raptors big guys.
I still don't know if Dubs will win Game 2 or Game 5 or both, but if I think there is a good chance they will win tonight.
But, I already invested in Dubs series bet (actually took more units after the odds climbed to 1.80, so heavily invested even), so I will take another approach.
Dubs scored 109 points, despite some mind blowing turnovers, few horrible bricks by Iggy and Jerebko and the rust that you could easily see (21 points in first quarter as example).
If Iggy will be limited on minutes, than who ever plays instead, probably won't be as bad on offense as Iggy and we are getting total of 106.5 points for very nice odds.
Toronto at home worth 100 points, so I would assume, that if Dubs win, they should cross 110+ points mark easily. But even if they lose, as we saw in Game 1, they can still go Over the total.
I also expect at least one game in Toronto to go to the wire and we can easily see potential OT here or free throws in the end to extend the game.
113 - 111 in Dubs favor sounds correct more or less here.
Dubs Over 106.5 points, 2.05 odds - 7 units play

Best of luck everybody!!!
Click to expand...


Thanks for your write up this postseason.....

I’ve tailed a few or your overs.....

I’m liking the over tonight again....playing with local that don’t have Team totals.......game still went over with the bad 1st quarter in game 1. I’m liking the chances here....
 
Ended up a close finish... not the way I expected, but I will take it...
When Dubs scored 106 points with 5:30 minutes left, I suddenly had a bad feeling... thought I was crazy... what are the chances they won't score one more point...
But... was too close... way too close...
Still nice to start the Finals with a W...
 
divol said:
Ended up a close finish... not the way I expected, but I will take it...
When Dubs scored 106 points with 5:30 minutes left, I suddenly had a bad feeling... thought I was crazy... what are the chances they won't score one more point...
But... was too close... way too close...
Still nice to start the Finals with a W...
Click to expand...

Yeah.....got lucky with a push on my over.....lol
 
Good call, divol. And look who popped you over the top — good old creaky Iggy! I guess he recuperated somehow. That was a sad collapse by the Raptors, though. There should be money that can be made exploiting that tendency to collapse.
 
divol said:
Ended up a close finish... not the way I expected, but I will take it...
When Dubs scored 106 points with 5:30 minutes left, I suddenly had a bad feeling... thought I was crazy... what are the chances they won't score one more point...
But... was too close... way too close...
Still nice to start the Finals with a W...
Click to expand...
I had the exact same feeling man. They looked bad when Thompson went out. Great game by Boogie and the supporting cast though.
 
I don’t like this finals so far. The refs last night were creepy, the Raptors were unstable, and the Warriors have become accident prone. No more pre-game betting for me with all those moving parts. Back to the well, making live bets late in the third or early in the 4th quarters...Raptors +9.5 in the 4th was the way to go last night...
 
I believe that Game 4 should offer nice betting options. Game 3 - too many question marks for sure...
 
pip2 said:
I don’t like this finals so far. The refs last night were creepy, the Raptors were unstable, and the Warriors have become accident prone. No more pre-game betting for me with all those moving parts. Back to the well, making live bets late in the third or early in the 4th quarters...Raptors +9.5 in the 4th was the way to go last night...
Click to expand...
Or GS -1 at the half. Easy money.
 
Golden State - Toronto Game 3

Game 2 was really strange. First half was in full control by the Raptors. It should have been 15+ points difference and the fact that it ended with only 5 points lead, probably given the edge to the Warriors that couldn't play any worse than they did in the first half.
Officiating was horrible. Too many bad calls, uneven calls and so on. It wasn't for one team or for the other, just very bad officiating and it's too bad we need to talk about refs in any major sports finals and the same about the injuries...
I don't know if KD will play or Klay will play and if so, how well will they play. Kawhi been playing injured and I think it hurts him on both ends of the floor - but still... he is an example of an injury that allows player to play to 80% of his ability. Hamstring is a problematic injury that really very hard to play with imo...
It's very interesting to see how GSW handle their injury problem, but in my eyes, it makes the game very hard to bet on, even if KD and Klay both play or both out. We don't know what we will see from them and Toronto will have really difficult time trying to predict how Golden State will look without Loney, KD and Klay...
Overall, I think that in the bay, Dubs can win without all three players. After five straight wins, Toronto needs to find their way back after a loss and a lot will depend on Siakam, VanVleet and Green...
Nurse needs to make his rotation bigger. I been saying since the series against the Sixers and didn't change my mind. On a night that Green and the bench played decent, they should have taken the 2 - 0 lead and they failed. Partially because they couldn't find who can step in instead of Lowry and Gasol, despite foul trouble on both and poor game by both.
If Kerr got enough confidence to play young players and give them 10+ minutes, no reason why Nurse should be afraid.
Overall, if Dubs win this one, it could be over in 5 games. Just like Game 1, this is a huge momentum game. If Warriors win it, maybe without both KD and Klay, it will be huge mental statement and Toronto can collapse after that, especially if KD and Klay will return to Game 4.
Kerr and the Warriors know that they can put this series to bed in Game 3 and they got a lot of experience to do just that.
It's hard to talk about lack of experience, not fouling Green in the end of Game 2, when Pop didn't foul in Game 7 against Denver (and he isn't lacking experience for sure), but it looked like they had Dubs on the robes and couldn't deliver the final blow.
Without KD, without Klay and without Curry taking even one shot throughout the whole fourth quarter, Dubs manage to win... Very hard to believe.
Btw, had Warriors lost, much focus would have went to the fact that Curry acted mostly as a bait and allowed others to take good shot.
Bottom line, with so many questions mark, very hard to make any serious bets.
I feel that Raptors +6 got some value, but nothing I want to bet on.
Warriors should win, but it can easily be another tight battle...
Skip...

Best of luck everybody!!!
 
I actually I do like one bet here and it's Raptors Under 103.5 points with nice odds of 2.03.
Warriors defense won them Game 2, not their offense and at home, without KD and good chance without Klay, they should really tighten up their defense.
Can easiluy see Raptors not reaching 100 points.
Still, no "official" bets, because too many questions marks, but I do think some value there...
 
Okay, you need to explain this more.... So without two very good defenders...no Looney as well... Iggy hobbled a bit.... That leaves Dray. I honestly think the complete opposite here.
 
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