NBA thoughts and plays playoffs 18-19 season

[divol]

Easy, Looney was out in the second half of Game 2 and Dubs played great defense, keeping Toronto on 45 points only! No Loney, means Bogut and he is still a great defender.
Toronto leads the league in scoring in the final seconds of possession and they won't look to speed the game in Oakland. With Iggy, Livingston and Bogut, I feel that Dubs offense also won't be too fast, they all slow the game down and on the other hand, play great defense. Bogut and Loney style of play is absolutely different...
I also really like McKinnie. Didn't know him before the playoffs and I really like his defense.
It's very hard for me to see Dubs score 115 - 120 points, I expect them to score 103 - 107 points +-, so if one believes that Raptors should score 105+ points, I do feel that taking them ATS is the smarter and safer bet.
I expect teams to leave everything on the floor and to see many minutes where a basket will be very rare occasion. To see a lot of set offenses and late shots and to see Kerr put defensive units, where it will be very hard to score on both ends of the floor.
Will see though... Many questions marks of course, but I don't see this game as run and gun style of game...

 

[Pyppurs]

why not full game under? do you expect Toronto defense to give up that much?

 

[divol]

why not full game under? do you expect Toronto defense to give up that much?

I didn't know what to expect, that why I skipped the game. But, given all the unknown factors and Dubs ability to explode at home, I felt like Raptors TT Under made more sense.
Anyway, turned out that I was wrong regardless

 

[divol]

Didn't see Game 3, so can't say much about it, besides the crazy fact that Dubs in all three games scored 109 points.
Logic says Dubs should be easy bet here and hunch says Toronto TT Under, but good chances that it will be the common play (Dubs).
My series bet surely didn't take in to account Klay's injury.
Btw, didn't see the game, but looking at the scoreboard, it looks like even if Klay and Durant played, Raps still would have won. Great team game and even +- spread of points between players...
Still question marks, so skipping this one (plus still in Europe and won't be able to see the game)...

 

[divol]

Toronto - Golden State

I took Golden State Over 104.5 points for 1.98 odds two days ago, but I still like the value on them Over 106.5 points.
Warriors shot 109 points in 3 out of 4 games and as was correctly pointed out, Curry playing Game 4, after smaller rest than usual, especially after carrying the load in Game 3, took it's toll.
Durant or no Durant, GSW should score closer to 109 points tonight I believe.
On the game itself, I'm having hard time deciding if it's an end of an era or Toronto will find ways to mess it up and if KD playing (or not playing) is good for the Dubs or bad for them.
I think that Durant' playing can hurt Raptors mentally. Championship game at home, especially for Toronto, for Canada, first time ever... Kawhi, Gasol and Green will add leadership, but still...
I was Dubs bias and not sure if my belief in them is now just because I committed to them or because I think they got a legit chance.
I do feel that GSW will have their shot at the game, if they can take it or not, it's more difficult to say.
I do expect Curry and Green to put up a show. I want to see if Ibaka can play as he did in Game 4 and I want to see what Lowry and VanVleet will do under pressure and the same for Powell.
I think that if Toronto wins the series 4 - 1, Nurse should get huge credit for avoiding all the mental pits that Raptors could have fallen in...
If I had to make a bet, 112 - 107 in Dubs favor.
Dubs Over 106.5 (104.5), 1.94 odds - 7 units play
Dubs to win the series, 4.85 odds - 2.5 points play

Best of luck everybody!

 

[number2]

Toronto - Golden State

I took Golden State Over 104.5 points for 1.98 odds two days ago, but I still like the value on them Over 106.5 points.
Warriors shot 109 points in 3 out of 4 games and as was correctly pointed out, Curry playing Game 4, after smaller rest than usual, especially after carrying the load in Game 3, took it's toll.
Durant or no Durant, GSW should score closer to 109 points tonight I believe.
On the game itself, I'm having hard time deciding if it's an end of an era or Toronto will find ways to mess it up and if KD playing (or not playing) is good for the Dubs or bad for them.
I think that Durant' playing can hurt Raptors mentally. Championship game at home, especially for Toronto, for Canada, first time ever... Kawhi, Gasol and Green will add leadership, but still...
I was Dubs bias and not sure if my belief in them is now just because I committed to them or because I think they got a legit chance.
I do feel that GSW will have their shot at the game, if they can take it or not, it's more difficult to say.
I do expect Curry and Green to put up a show. I want to see if Ibaka can play as he did in Game 4 and I want to see what Lowry and VanVleet will do under pressure and the same for Powell.
I think that if Toronto wins the series 4 - 1, Nurse should get huge credit for avoiding all the mental pits that Raptors could have fallen in...
If I had to make a bet, 112 - 107 in Dubs favor.
Dubs Over 106.5 (104.5), 1.94 odds - 7 units play
Dubs to win the series, 4.85 odds - 2.5 points play

Best of luck everybody!

I went with the full game over.....gl to us

 

[divol]

Golden State - Toronto Game 6

Game 5 was one of the best ones I have seen in NBA Finals. We got a lot of drama, with KD's injury, with Toronto's comeback, than GSW comeback and basically, every player justified our expectation. Lowry missing final shot, Kawhi being a machine, Klay and Steph scoring final three pointers and so on...
One thing was clear to me, I have no idea who will win the title, but no way I will be Toronto in Game 6 (or Game 7 if there will be one). Siakam, Lowry, everyone not named Gasol, Kawhi and Ibaka (and Green) proved the bad reputation Raptors got for losing. The attempt to milk the clock in the end, the fact that the last basket scored without Kawhi's involvement (points or assist) was 8 minutes till the end of the game, the poor coaching by Nurse and so on... Can't trust the Raptors.
Wanted to say something about Nurse and his timeouts. I want to point out, that the decisions were bad only in hindsight. The decision to take the timeout when they were leading was to give rest and the desire not to "lose" a timeout - can understand that. The same about not taking a timeout in the final possession - didn't want to give the Warriors to set up their defense and didn't want his players to feel the heavy weight of the title on their shoulders. Can understand and justify both of them and I would have probably taken both decisions the same. But that's the thing, Toronto over the years, had the amazing ability not to make bad decisions, but ones that turned out to be the wrong ones. In the end, both decisions were proven to be wrong and while you can't coach in hindsight, the fact that the decisions by the Raptors prove to be wrong time after time is not a good sign and they got two (or one) more game to change things around.

This is a huge game for both teams emotions wise as well. Obviously this title is huge for Toronto. But this is also the last game in Oracle Arena, where they lost both games so far this series. Obviously KD's injury and so on... Both teams will leave everything on the floor and somehow, if we are talking about emotions - they can go both ways and they can hurt Toronto more than they can hurt the Warriors.
I hate that kind of logic, but it works more often than not - Warriors are good enough team, not to lose all three games at home in one series, especially given how special tonight's game is.

Dubs are a team that runs together for very long time. That's huge in such crucial games, because teams return to their basic modes when there is pressure and Dubs been through so much, they know how to play on instincts together. All three last baskets by the Warriors came via set plays and not one on one or improvising.
I don't know if it will be enough, because their rotation is short and if Steph or Klay will have a bad day, I don't think that Warriors other players can step up and take their place.
On top of that, Toronto might actually have an easier time winning it in Oakland, where the pressure not as big, than in Toronto.
But in the end, I will go with my gut feeling and it is that home team will win Game 6.
108 - 102 type of game
Dubs -3, 2.01 odds - 5 units play
Toronto Under 105 points, 1.84 odds - 5 units play

Best of luck everybody!

 

[divol]

Both Game 5 and Game 6, are games that you can easily spend and hour talking about... so many different aspects... Usually at this time, things are pretty obvious more or less, but here... no one knows what to expect, everyone can only speculate.

Btw, I do expect big game from Draymond Green tonight. Maybe Cousins as well...
Kawhi should carry the Raptors of course...

 

[divol]

Went with gut feeling and lost...
Still don't regret the bet. Final Game of the season and gut feeling served me well this season and overall, it was decent season.
As for the series, one of the best Finals I can remember. So much drama on both teams. GSW with two major injuries that can change the course of a dynasty, the league, free agent market and so on...
Dubs did everything they could without Klay (in amazing game) and KD and Curry got to a very good shot, but missed (0 - 8 in the last 20 seconds for him).
Kawhi's trade that many (including myself) criticized, was proven as a brilliant move. But Game 6 was about Lowry... From start to finish... I said it before Game 5, that he should be the one to lose or win the series for them and he brought probably his best playoffs game ever. Him + Siakam were just amazing and VanVleet of course... Each player you can write a book about and Nurse as well...
Btw, loved the way both coaches coached Game 6. Would have changed the starting five for Dubs in the fourth quarter, but Kerr needed to improvise and he tried his best.

Anyway, great playoffs, great Finals and should be very interesting summer for many teams

Thank you for everyone who read my threads and good luck everybody!