NBA Playoff Plays (Second Round)...
- Thread starter emkee
- Start date
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
GL this round Emkee!! :cheers:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks fellas.
Think we may get an emotional letdown from LAC, off the whole Sterling drama in Round 1, a Game 7 comeback win and now backing up on the road (away teams in Game 1 of Round 2 after winning a Game 7 at home are 0-5 SU (0-5 ATS) losing the game by an average of 27.4 points), you could see how emotionally tied up the Clips were after they won the series. Also don't think the fire that was lit under Durant is ready to go out just yet, believe the Memphis series helped this team a ton and gave them a backbone.
Clippers 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs since the CP3 trade.
Only real concern in this series going forward is Rivers schooling Brooks, although I have Doc as very overrated but Brooks is just stupid.
Think we may get an emotional letdown from LAC, off the whole Sterling drama in Round 1, a Game 7 comeback win and now backing up on the road (away teams in Game 1 of Round 2 after winning a Game 7 at home are 0-5 SU (0-5 ATS) losing the game by an average of 27.4 points), you could see how emotionally tied up the Clips were after they won the series. Also don't think the fire that was lit under Durant is ready to go out just yet, believe the Memphis series helped this team a ton and gave them a backbone.
Clippers 2-10 ATS on the road in the playoffs since the CP3 trade.
Only real concern in this series going forward is Rivers schooling Brooks, although I have Doc as very overrated but Brooks is just stupid.
CASH
Pretty much a regular
GL and agreed!
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
trend makes sense because the home teams in those games each had a minimum of seven days to rest and prepare for round two, while the away team had literally one day to rest/travel/prepare
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
That does make sense. Didn't look into it too much given the whole point of my OKC play is based on the 'emotional letdown' factor for the Clippers and how they struggled vs a soft Warriors team. Travelling team is at a disadvantage either way.
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
agree with your analysis....on doc though I have had bb conversations with him (over a 5 hour period of golf and cocktails...i was cocktailing he wasn't...weak) and he impressed me as intelligent,motivated and hard working....my 2 cents
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Just a bad read on Game 1, in hindsight...
4 OT's in a grind-out physical series > Racist owner scandal / defense-optional series.
Clips played care-free and confident tonight with CP3 commending the coaching staff after the game. Bad sign for the poorly-coached Thunder.
OKC more than likely gets Game 2 but this series via the percentage is 58/42 Clippers. Closest power ratings differential of all 4 series as well.
Hopefully tomorrow is more promising.
4 OT's in a grind-out physical series > Racist owner scandal / defense-optional series.
Clips played care-free and confident tonight with CP3 commending the coaching staff after the game. Bad sign for the poorly-coached Thunder.
OKC more than likely gets Game 2 but this series via the percentage is 58/42 Clippers. Closest power ratings differential of all 4 series as well.
Hopefully tomorrow is more promising.
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
I thought you capped the game to a tee. Now the question is, have the Clippers matured faster than we thought? Is OKC a team without an identity, and has Brook's poor coaching reached a level we didn't expect? OKC should come out with a better plan in game 2, but I'm not laying points with them. I will wait to see what Game 3 brings.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks Smh.
Scandal has brought the team together. They looked incredibly crisp, had them as a fraud going into the playoffs but I may retract that. Both teams were in a bad spot last night though but the coaching edge for LAC showed up in Game 1.
Very dangerous side.
Tonight...
Lean Heat but hate the steam, all the guys I know who like to have a gamble are pounding the Heat ML or tying them into a parlay of some sort.
Teams that swept vs teams that went 7 in the 1st round are 6-1 ATS in Game 1 of the 2nd round since 2002/03...
Pacers 94 - Heat 81 (03/04)
Suns 127 v Mavs 102 (04/05)
Cavs 99 v Hawks 72 (08/09)
Magic 114 v Hawks 71 (09/10)
Spurs 108 v LAC 92 (11/12)
OKC 119 v LAL 90 (11/12)
Heat 86 v Bulls 93 (12/13)
As you can see all 6 covers were blowouts and the only team to mess it up was the Heat last season and tonight they are on identical rest, they could of been forgiven for some complacency though given it was the Rose-less hurting Bulls. Surely they're up for Crooklyn tonight after what transpired in the regular season.
Scandal has brought the team together. They looked incredibly crisp, had them as a fraud going into the playoffs but I may retract that. Both teams were in a bad spot last night though but the coaching edge for LAC showed up in Game 1.
Very dangerous side.
Tonight...
Lean Heat but hate the steam, all the guys I know who like to have a gamble are pounding the Heat ML or tying them into a parlay of some sort.
Teams that swept vs teams that went 7 in the 1st round are 6-1 ATS in Game 1 of the 2nd round since 2002/03...
Pacers 94 - Heat 81 (03/04)
Suns 127 v Mavs 102 (04/05)
Cavs 99 v Hawks 72 (08/09)
Magic 114 v Hawks 71 (09/10)
Spurs 108 v LAC 92 (11/12)
OKC 119 v LAL 90 (11/12)
Heat 86 v Bulls 93 (12/13)
As you can see all 6 covers were blowouts and the only team to mess it up was the Heat last season and tonight they are on identical rest, they could of been forgiven for some complacency though given it was the Rose-less hurting Bulls. Surely they're up for Crooklyn tonight after what transpired in the regular season.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Will probably play something in-game with the Heat if it offers itself. My local hanging a -8.5 (+100) on the Heat.
Think the fact the Nets swept the regular season series somewhat negates the above trend, they will come into South Beach confident and the travel factor was relatively small. Refs also slightly favorable towards the points as opposed to the chalk. Steam has been misleading as well for the most part during these playoffs. Got burned in a bad way last postseason by the Heat in this exact spot.
Will be interesting to see how Kidd handles his first playoff game as a coach.
See something better in the late game.
Think the fact the Nets swept the regular season series somewhat negates the above trend, they will come into South Beach confident and the travel factor was relatively small. Refs also slightly favorable towards the points as opposed to the chalk. Steam has been misleading as well for the most part during these playoffs. Got burned in a bad way last postseason by the Heat in this exact spot.
Will be interesting to see how Kidd handles his first playoff game as a coach.
See something better in the late game.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Would prefer it was the other way around setting up a monster Game 2 play on Miami.
nbafan88
Pretty much a regular
Or a monster play on the nets.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
11-9-1 (+7)
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2
The play...
Thunder -5.5 (3 units)
Strong spot play. Probably the only game in this series (unless they show me otherwise) where I have the utmost faith in the Thunder to get it done. Not gonna wait for the ref assignments, just gonna roll with it.
Have it lined at 7 via my numbers.
:shake:
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2
The play...
Thunder -5.5 (3 units)
Strong spot play. Probably the only game in this series (unless they show me otherwise) where I have the utmost faith in the Thunder to get it done. Not gonna wait for the ref assignments, just gonna roll with it.
Have it lined at 7 via my numbers.
:shake:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
The letdown spot I expected for LAC in Game 1 should show up tonight, imo. Inconceivable to think the Clippers can perform at the level they did in the first game tonight, huge game for KD after getting the MVP. Seriously don't think LAC stands much of a chance here, they got the split and stole home court advantage - they can afford the night off so to speak.
Line movement disagrees though but I'd lay 6.5 in this spot, no problems.
Line movement disagrees though but I'd lay 6.5 in this spot, no problems.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Thanks Twink.
Case of OKC rolls or loses SU.
'Situationally' history says it's a higher chance of the former.
Retburj13
SpongeBob Squarecapper
:wtf2: FML....
uking:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Tony Brothers (6 games officiated, head ref): Home team win percentage = 1.000 (17.3 pts differential)
Eric Lewis (3 games officiated, crew): htw% = .667 (2.3 pts differential)
Tom Washington (7 games officiated, crew): htw% = .857 (7 pt differential)
In the playoffs the refs stick to their tendencies. Brothers gave Indy nothing in Game 3 of the Hawks series (ATL was the home team), in Game 7 he gave the Hawks nada (Indy was the home team). Confident this guy's role is to 'assist' the home team, last 3 postseasons somewhat prove it.
Will elaborate further a bit later on.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
12-10-1 (+8.44)
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards Game 3
The play...
Wizards -4.5 (1 unit)
Ref play. Hate the steam so keeping it small. Will increase going forward, ref plays currently 2-0 (would have been 3-0 had I been stubborn and played the Heat last night).
:shake:
Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards Game 3
The play...
Wizards -4.5 (1 unit)
Ref play. Hate the steam so keeping it small. Will increase going forward, ref plays currently 2-0 (would have been 3-0 had I been stubborn and played the Heat last night).
:shake:
smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Thans Emkee. Wil add that perspective to my arsenal. I have been working on seeing if the refs agree or disagree with the style of play based off pace numbers. I try and determine if the way a ref works a game benefits or, hinders, or has no effect on a particular teams style of play. Working it more for a totals angle then a side.
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
adding...
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers Game 3
The play...
Clippers -4 (2.5 units)
Again - hate the steam. Trust Doc to have his troops ready with the change of venue, Brooks needs another day or two. Solid opportunity in Game 4 of this series to get one's money back plus interest should this play lose.
:shake:
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers Game 3
The play...
Clippers -4 (2.5 units)
Again - hate the steam. Trust Doc to have his troops ready with the change of venue, Brooks needs another day or two. Solid opportunity in Game 4 of this series to get one's money back plus interest should this play lose.
:shake:
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emkee
The Truth Is Out There
:shake:
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
Head ref McCutchen a noted series extender.
This crew combined is 30-9 ATS for short home dogs (0-4.5).
Nets played pretty shitty in the Game 2 loss yet were a few poorly executed plays away from leveling the series. D-Will won't go 0-fer tonight and KG should man-up.
Have the game line at Crooklyn -1.5, hoping for a similar outcome to Heat v C's Game 3 (2011).
This crew combined is 30-9 ATS for short home dogs (0-4.5).
Nets played pretty shitty in the Game 2 loss yet were a few poorly executed plays away from leveling the series. D-Will won't go 0-fer tonight and KG should man-up.
Have the game line at Crooklyn -1.5, hoping for a similar outcome to Heat v C's Game 3 (2011).
D
DeFaz
Guest
Got me some LAC -.5 (2k/1k)
emkee
The Truth Is Out There
adding...
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers Game 4
The play...
Clippers -5.5 +100 (3 to win 3)
Spot play. Sold the hook and eliminated the juice, case of the Lobbers winning by plenty or losing straight-up.
Would be a 4-unit play if not for the internets being awash with Clipper plays.
LAC 5-0 ATS when playing at home off a home loss this season (incl. playoffs).
Very favorable ref numbers.
Lean Indy late.
:shake:
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers Game 4
The play...
Clippers -5.5 +100 (3 to win 3)
Spot play. Sold the hook and eliminated the juice, case of the Lobbers winning by plenty or losing straight-up.
Would be a 4-unit play if not for the internets being awash with Clipper plays.
LAC 5-0 ATS when playing at home off a home loss this season (incl. playoffs).
Very favorable ref numbers.
Lean Indy late.
:shake:
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