NBA Monday


CTG Partner
Staff member
57-34-5 +32.63 units

Huge hit on Raptors/Nuggets Over. Thats what situational capping and planning is all about.

Just one play for now on Monday. May add New Jersey(prolly will not be able to post it)

Toronto/Utah Under 212 +106

GL to all
Nice hit. I have to admit although I agreed with the fact this game would see 180 -190 shots I wasnt sure they could hit enough to get 216pts...good call...
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I just got home from playing some hold'em and checked out the overnight NBA lines and am glad to see we are both on this total.

I enjoyed grabbing this under and the Raps both at positive juice as they both should fall a bit leading up to game time.

Good luck tomorrow BAR.
GL the thinking behind Toronto, Under, Over, Under...seems logical

I'll be playing this as well, maybe tying it in with Jacksonville Moneyline in a 2 team parlay (about 2 to 1 odds)

BOL to you tomorrow
Portland +7 -112

NJ Nets ML +127


I am going to try and get back with some quick write-ups around 3..
Was eyeing Portland myself... can't bring myself to bet on the Nets who look off without Jefferson.. big revenge game but SEA is in no position to just be going through the motions.
Call me crazy guys but I just dont see the value in Portland. Lets be honest and admit we are all in tune to fading SA in the back end of B-to-B's. Unfortunately this season Books have done a great job in taking the value out of situational capping. By simply deflating lines in these situations. Last 2 seasons SA has been anywhere from -7.5 to -10.5 in Portland. They have repeatedly smoked the Blazers. I think SA is well aware of the sluggish performnce in back to backs. You will see that no one played more then 32 minutes last nite . The two that Parker and Bowen are probably the 2 best conditioned. Duncan played 30 minutes. Fatigue will not be a factor for SA. Look at Port home lines this year team they played was Dal catching 6 and lost by 7. Sure they hung around but they played catch up most of the nite. Then remember Dallas wa shorthanded and not playing particularily well while SA is still one of thebest in the NBA(dallas is probably 3 spreads weaker then SA right now0.

SA played @ Sac was -2.5 do you think Kings are only 4 pts stronger then Portland? SA was -6.5 in NY and rolled through 3 quarters and won by DD's. Do you think Portland is equal to the Knicks? SA was -7 @ Tor and again covered , do you thin Port is equal to Tor? My answer is no to all three. Blazers are also back from as EAST COAST trip.

Both teams are playing 5th in 7 days but Blazers had the rough travel schedule. With 4 games in 4 different cities in 5 nites across a coast.

Randolph last year vs SA :

He made 25 of 76 shots from the floor. Aldridge presents an interesting addition but gone are Miles and Patterson two key contributors versus SA last year.

Basically I feel we should see -8.5 here so -6.5 is very cheap IMO.

I kinda like SEA cause NJ is shorthanded now with Cliff being added to the injury mix and playing something like 8 games in 13 days now..hate NJ off a bad loss though so probably a pass.

Like to hear some thought son Portland? As I am looking to make SA a large play here
Thoughts ----. Spurs have 1 day off and then start up at home vs Dallas and Heat. They beat this team by 19 last time and are off a very tasty 9 point win vs Artest the Mouth. Which team do you think actually cares about this game. I locked in the 7.5 yesterday early for a 2 unit bet trusting situational aspects combined with hopefully logic. Still thinking about the ML but will probably skip it.
SA doesnt have to care much cause they are talent superior. If they didnt care they would have just ran there guys into the ground last nite in SAC instead of keeping them fresh for this game. I think people forget that players actually have fun playing the game. They might not be looking forward to the trip mentally but when the buzzer sounds it play time..

So Portland cares what does that mean? This is Portland we are talking about who has been labeled quitters by there own coach.

I think if you go over this season situational capping has been a pocket burner. Two that stand out were the Spurs @ NY laying only -6.5 probbaly should have been -8...and the fact Sonics scovered all 5 games of a road trip.....would venture that has happened maybe once in the past decade out of thousands of opps...We see dogs covering in 5 of 7 spots*see Minny vs LAL)..a nd so on...just my take.....
Spurs against Knicks very poor example. It was known that Pop wanted to nail Knicks for Brown among other reasons. The simple truth is the Spurs are close to the most predictable team I know and their tendency to blow off games vs poor teams they have previously crushed when tired is just known. The only real negative to Portland is their win last game.
Understand this, Pop is playing for the season. Getting a key player hurt here to cover a spread when they are OLD and tired as opposed to this Young Portland team is just not something acceptable to him.
I simply disagree Tuck. I think its more known SA is trying to improve on back to back situations then some revenge for Brown. Your basically hoping SA just dont show up after a big game. Which I might agree if they were home cause thats when I see a team taking it easy.No way in hell is Coach thinking/ worrying about a guy getting hurt in game 10 of the year or rather play a game not to get hurt(JMO). Yeah we could see a backdoor cover because starters are pulled but thats always an issue.

The only real negative ? How bout a soft line pricing in "the known" fact that SA doesnt play well after good wins? I had SA huge last nite so maybe that win wasnt uch a big deal to be. I never thought SAC had a shot playing with a bunch of 6'9 guys in the post.

I just think if your making a value play you would rather have an inflated line rather then a soft line. While I disagree somewhat with your arguement its also the same arguement every PORT backer is using. We live in a copycat world and after SA last seasonhaving trouble in this spot its well known IMO..why else would something like 45% of the bettors take Port..

I guess we shall see. I am not saying your wrong by any means in some ways I agree. What I dont agree with is the value in port @+6.5 maybe +8.5...seems to be the books lighten up the spread with SA issues and worse the betting market has also backed PORT..
Excellent day again Al. I always follow your picks and I'm sure I speak for lots of people when I say you have helped us all become better handicappers. Continued success and keep up the great work. Mad props.