NBA ML Dogs 11.6 redbearde, macdamn, anyone else...please discuss

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Lakers lost. Alas.

Now I'm 10-4, +14.77 units. Had I bet spreads -110 instead of ML, I'd be 10-4 +5.7 units.

Tomorrow, I'm looking at the Knicks.
 
I was looking at the ML for this game...

4th game in 5 days for the Spurs
Knicks got the day off and didnt have to travel.

I know it's still early in the season but I think that could factor into the game.

If I played any other ML Dog it would be the Wizards. Turnovers are killing the Magic right now and they are coming off a B2B. Not too sure about that one though.
 
same here

one play that I will definately be making is a play on the Knicks spread. may put a half unit on the ML as well. Spurs 4th in 5 days...as well as back to back. On top of that, athletic teams give the spurs problems, moreso than anything else. I look for a high scoring shootout, as the Knicks will try to control the game with a quick tempo to wear out the spurs

I may wait a little to make this play public is over 60% on the Spurs, so we may see a line movement in the favor of NY...and if it moves against the Knicks? well, we know something is wrong there, and load up on the Knicks :cheers:
 
Starting to get more and more convinced that one of the popular favs like Clipps, Dallas or Utah goes down and that Spurs actually get the job done. This site is much better with disagreements instead of a bunch of popular picks.
 
I liked Utah -2, etc...but at Utah -5, I feel like Detroit ML is starting to get some real value at +175...I'm slumping and trying to take it real slow for a few days, but if Detroit doesn't get blown out of the building, I kinda like their chances late in the game...
 
Couldn't agree with Seabass more. Think there's some definate value on Detroit ML if it keeps going up. I also see Portland as a live dog/ml play.

I'm riding that Spurs game with BAR against my better judgment. Not really liking the ML there. If Knicks cover it will be a backdoor imo.
 
ORLANDO is SECOND STRAIGHT + THIRD IN FOUR

while BULLETS Are rested And dont play Tomorrow.

For what its worth.



:shake:
 
Detroit +180. Not sure wtf's going on here....3pt shifts on a weekday NBA game is rare. I'll take 180 and be happy.
 
Absolutely. I'm waiting for the line to move up again. It's at -3 -112, and I'm thinking one more appreciable bet pushes it over and I might get a few more cents on the ML.

it's at 140 now.
 
lol, i'm glad to see you like the Wizards here :cheers:

Publics almost 70% on the Magic... why won't it go up :down:
 
tuck321 said:
Starting to get more and more convinced that one of the popular favs like Clipps, Dallas or Utah goes down and that Spurs actually get the job done. This site is much better with disagreements instead of a bunch of popular picks.
Click to expand...

you overthinking this one IMO....money is clearly going to be on SA after the NYK opener...(ah stinker) GL bro responded in Bar's thread as well
 
Lines are out for tomorrow.

Atlanta +9.5
Philly +5.5/6 at pinny
Seattle/Miami not available yet
Memphis +1.5
GSW +6.5
Twolves +6.5

Lookin like a day off for me unless Seattle comes out as a dog....and I think that's unlikely.
 
redbearde said:
Sportsnut, what do you think of the the Trailblazers chances tonight?
Click to expand...

portland is limited offensively(even with Roy) and there the type of team where there trading baskets alll game and you think they are gonna cover with 8 minutes to play and then they go cold. You look up and they lost by 14 or 15 points.......I played the Under here late last nite and I have a feeling this line gets knocked down further cause of Minnys upset the other day. I think under or at -10 LAC is clearly the play there are few teams who Portland wont be 10 pt dogs to on the road to. I will have a better answer when I really look deep into this but unless Port is significantly different from last year I am not sold....Being that TBlazers are 2-1 I would think LAC would not take them lightily especially since the last game was close(minus Zach)..

Right now I am not crazy about LAC as a team with all lineup mixing going on but as far as where the line should be..if por is +9 and +9.5 and Sea and GS who are basically maybe 500 clubs ...11 and 12 seems very right here...expect this to get pushed down further though...really a no play unless it gets cheaper..not very helpful ...
 
ML dog record: 9-9 +6.90 units
Spread record: 1-1 -0.10 unit

Yesterday 0-2 on the ML dogs and 0-1 on the LAL-Sea Under

Tonight:

Washington +141
Milwaukee +210
Detroit +181

I'm not super thrilled with any of these plays, but I think they're worth it from a value standpoint. I can see why Orlando and Chicago are favored at home as both are looking to snap 2 game losing streaks. But Washington is more rested than the Magic, who are on b2b. And Milwaukee is a little undervalued IMO.
Not used to seeing Detroit as this big of a dog, so may as well take it while it's there. Despite their struggles with Utah I think they have a decent shot. I think Utah is nasty and will almost always be on them when they are dogs, but the Pistons are still the Pistons let's not forget.

GL today everyone:cheers:
 
redbearde, yeah it looks like we're on the same plays here today. Except for I'm staying off the Knicks. I just don't know how much I trust them yet, even against a tired Spurs team.

With Portland, I am very tempted to play them because it seems like no one is 6 to 1 better than anyone else in the NBA. But I think I'll pass this time. I may go back the last few years and track how well one could have done by blindly taking any 10 point or higher dog on the ML. I remember you hit a +1000 or so dog last year. Wasn't it Atlanta over the Pistons?

GL tonight buddy.
 
Something occurred to me...

Portland sucked ATS away last year but the few times they covered and you can double chck this cause its off the top of my head they would wib SU. So maybe you can do something like ML play +600 with a hedge on LAC minus the points even if its just half trhe size of the ML play...its relatively risk free shot at the Blazers ML.

They won SU @ seattle already and lost and didnt cover at GS...

Look it up but that could be teh way to go.....

play the Blazers ML and have some sort of hedge on the LAC laying the points....not risk free but very close....
 
Quick research showed 6 SU wins of 14 ATS away covers and 1-1 this year .

So of the 15 away ATS covers they managed 7 SU WINS in that span...

Now two things you have to dig deeper for are games played w/o key players where the spreads were jacked up real high. I always believe 1st game w/o a star player if they are a dog play them anyway. Also Blazers basically quit late in teh year making the spreads even bigger then they should have been. Now playing hard for 48 minutes and covering 15 pt spreads are two different conversations IMO..

GL hope that helps
 
The spreads were two +3.5 's , two +7.5's , a +10 , +11 and believe +09 this year in Seattle...

So its now become if they cover whats the chances the win SU..data says 7 in 15 chance or nearly 47% of a Blazer ML win if they cover...
 
SN, that's great info. Thanks bro. The question in my mind remains what's in my tblazers poll.

Is the low chance to win outweighed by the payout?

I'm inclined to think it is. But with two plays in, and a third on Washington about to be placed, I'm not certain I want to shoot a wad on this one...

I have time to consider...
 
Thats sort of my point though....

dont look at like that. Its a great chance that if Blazers do cover they win SU. OS the proper play is say LAC for 50 bucks cause if LA wins they will probably cover cause Blazers had only 8 ATS covers in 41ish games last year plus 2 this year...then play Blazers ML for say 75 or 100 @ +600...

So 8 in 43 is about 19% chance you would lose both ends and I think the last 2 covers for Port had no Zach and ridiculous high lines... so it probably even lower then 19% you lose both ends...

So LAC -11 and Blazers ML...not a risk free hedge but low risk hedge with a great payout...
 
Good point. However that isn't my style. Say the +600 does come in. Had I hedged like you said, the actual return I'm getting is 550.

I don't drop 10-20% of my bankroll on these things. It's more like less than 1%. Consequently, it's not all that risky in the grand scheme. If I play 50 of these over the season, then I -expect- to come out ahead. ...unless I screw up with my picking.

If i was dropping 10% of my bankroll, then what you suggest makes sense (though with my luck, the blazers would lose by 1), but this is long term for me, and the offered number plays a HUGE role in what games I play. Cris has it at 550.

thanks.
 
redbearde, hope the Blazers hit for you.

BTW, what'd you do wind up the in the pbox over at Covers?
 
In this thread, I used both of the words ****** and cunt in reference to Lynn Cheney. The context is quoted in tikitom's comment.

I was very funny in there...
 
I hear ya its not about money or size but risk though. I dont see the difference bewtten a 550 payout and 600 payout.. yu could 'gamble" and double your ML size and get twice the payout...its all about hitting a longshot...portland is this odd team where if they cover away they usually win...

Regardless of size of the player...the guy who puts 50 on the ML should put a hundo and hedge 50...on the spread his likely to jsut split and lose what would be originally size. He is probably just as likely to lose both as to win the Blazers ML....so basically your risking 150 worst case for 550 best case...yiu have to adjust to met a goal....this would only work with Portalnd though..just a thought for action junkies...
 
ehh i didnt see ur thread but i was talkin with bar and i told him i really liked the warriors with the points and su. Donny comin back.. plus the mavs not clickin on all cylinders yet. Oh well, theres still a long way to go.. keep up the good work. I kind of like the Twolves as well.. although i have no idea how they ever win any games.
 
macdamn said:
With Portland, I am very tempted to play them because it seems like no one is 6 to 1 better than anyone else in the NBA. But I think I'll pass this time. I may go back the last few years and track how well one could have done by blindly taking any 10 point or higher dog on the ML. I remember you hit a +1000 or so dog last year. Wasn't it Atlanta over the Pistons?
Click to expand...

I had to look it up...
On Dec 3rd of 2005, I won the Raptors +575
On Dec 13 of 2005, I hit the Hawks +950 at Cleveland.
On Dec 23rd 2005, I won Trailblazers +660

I stopped while I was up 32 units.

abcs,

the twolves are hard to understand. They get the right pieces, and then they refuse to play together. KG declares he wants the ball in the endgame, and then his 7 foot ass can't get a clear jumpshot off the other night. They may well win, but I always wonder how they managed when they do it...
 
Well at first i felt bad since i think kg is the most gifted player in the league. Then i realized he signed that huge contract and then resigned for another 100 million +.. thus hurting the chances of the team getting any big fa's.. thus he is wasting his prime years on a shitty team. At least they got mike james this year. Would love to see the lakers get rid of odom and whoever else and get him. There have been a lot of kg rumors but we shall see.
 
This is what drives me crazy about gambling. I called that GS game. But if i would have bet it they would have had no chance to win or cover. ITs like i am scared to bet anything now.. after some of these beats ive taken the past few days. Im sure the wolves will win su as well.
 
All four were losses. That sucked...especially the Pistons. I guess the refs were just letting them play in the last 10 seconds, I saw at least 2 outright Utah fouls when Rip went up for that final layup. Washington was right there, too, but lost by 3. Since I made the bet when the line was at 3.5, I'm going to call that a ML loss that would have covered on the spread.

It was about time I had a lousy day....I just didn't want it at all.




I will be away tomorrow. I will have my phone, so I might talk some, but I have a toothache that has gotten horribly and progressively worse over the last week. We have to find time to vote, go to the next town over so my wife can make her doctor's appointment, and I have desperately got to find some sort of dentist who will give me morphine...

I don't like the offerings for tomorrow. Philly might be worth a shot, but I don't like the card...so between my annoyance with this toothache and being too busy in general, I'll probably just take the day off.

ML 10-8, 55.56% +10.37 units
had I bet spreads instead, I'd be at 11-7, +3.3 units
 
abcs said:
This is what drives me crazy about gambling. I called that GS game. But if i would have bet it they would have had no chance to win or cover. ITs like i am scared to bet anything now.. after some of these beats ive taken the past few days. Im sure the wolves will win su as well.
Click to expand...

We all hit these, instances, bro. It's part of the gig. You can't keep from missing games from time to time...and you can't always win.

The best thing to do is minimize what you lose when you do inevitably lose. That means reducing juice as much as possible and don't buy the hook...pretty much ever. I eat lousier lines all the time because I focus more on reducing juice. It's only burned me one time this year where I lost a CFB wager because of it, but it saved me a few percent on each of the 74 wagers I've so far lost.

Have you ever read vanzack's essay on reducing juice and why it's so beneficial? I have it saved somewhere...I guess I could post it as long as no one objects. I kinda doubt he would; he posted it in covers general discussion last year sometime...
 
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