NBA ML dogs 11/26

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 15-13, 53.57%, +16.01 units

Sunday: Nets won.

Magic-4 (-110)

so obviously I won't be playing the trailblazers.

There's no chance the Jazz will be a dog, but if it's short enough, then I'll play the Jazz. The Knicks got a pseudo-win on Saturday over the Bulls, and it's time for reality to crash around their ears again. The UNDER in this one sure seems appealing, too. I love watching good rebounding teams play.

Twolves I'm still pissed about. or I would be if I wasn't so exhausted. But I think it's extremely unlikely that they compete tomorrow...much less that they win. So even at 10:1 I'm not sure I'd play it, and I really doubt we'll see that.

The Wizards might be worth some thought. The Mavs have been less than exquisite recently...though being home might do them some good. I do think if the Bullets might be a good spread play, too...maybe this'll be one of those combo plays where I do the spread and then 40% of that on the ML. Probably not though.

Spurs @ Kings......now THAT'S a solid ML spot.....the Kings will have to play a most excellent game, but the Spurs are still doing that sluggish shit early in the year.

Rockets @ Clippers. I'm going to have to give this one some thought - and I'll have to consider the rockets performances at home vs away. Because with as many injuries as they have, the Clippers are still managing to play some competitive ball. With just a couple minutes left, they were right in there with the Suns a couple nights ago in Phoenix. 2:1 on the Clips might just be worth it. And methinks that's not an unreasonable expectation.

Suns @ Warriors. I truly believe these games are tossups. Warriors, Suns, Bullets, Pacers sans O'neal.......the runners all seem to be able to put up 5 to 10 points in no time at all. So again, if I can get 2:1 and there aren't any injuries I'm unaware of, then I'll probably be on GSW here...again. I'll hope on this one, cus at +5 it's going to require some Suns interest out of folks.

I haven't slept much recently, and I'll go on record right now to say that funerals suck ass. Conard was damn good man. alas.
 
Sorry to hear about the funeral Red. Hope all is well. I'm already on the the Magic large, home or not the blazers should get blown out. I will also be on Washington +12 more then likely, the Mavericks haven't really impressed me all year, and now they're laying 12 against a team that has found a rhythm with Arenas out of the lineup. Goodluck tomorrow, looks like you got some good potential plays to work with.
 
just a heads up on hou/lac....

maggette might be back in the lineup, he said yesterday that he felt he would be ready to play against houston. he was warming up before the game on saturday and now we will just see if the trainers let him play. im sure u will prolly make an injury thread tomorrow so i will give an update when i hear something
 
thanks lifesallover. He was my wife's grandfather, and I liked and respected him...well.....a LOT.

B4B, thanks for the heads up about maggette, man. I might not be near a keyboard tomorrow...or I might be there all day. not sure.

nice of the nets to win that one on Sunday night. w00t.
 
hmm, perhaps I should check out their respective lineups?

or is there a revenge factor I hadn't considered in this one?

I haven't made a wager on the Jazz, mind you, but I would be delighted if you'd actually add something useful to the conversation.
 
i dont know, im trying to find the two home dogs that are going to win today. i have already thrown portland and clippers out the window

focusing on: new york, sacramento, golden state
 
I guess it could happen, but the Knicks really are in a terribly shitty state right now. and beating the Bulls a couple days ago just meant that the Bulls sucked more the other night.

I've been lookin at Sacramento and GSW, m'self.
 
Suns & Warriors

Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.
Suns are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Suns are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Golden State.
 
What do you mean when you are say

the Spurs are still doing that sluggish shit early in the year.
Click to expand...

They are 12-2 and off to their best start in some time. They are anything but sluggish in my opinion. Maybe you see something i don't. please explain
 
I meant to say on B2Bs. They do just enough to win but not even think about dominating the game from one end to the other.

case in point...they squeaked by Memphis on Oct 31st and didn't cover. When they've lost this year, or come close to it (and not covered) it was during a B2B.

Loss at Houston on the 6th.
Loss at Dallas on the 15th.

It's hard to predict when a dominant team is going to lose one to a bad team, but that's what I'm trying to do here. The Spurs will lose 20 or so to teams that on any given day in a vacuum they should beat. Tonight is one of those times when if the Kings play particularly well and the Spurs essentially take the night off (which they're more apt to do on a B2B than not), then it might be a good time to get 2.5:1 on the Kings.

Sorry about my unclear post there.

Interesting. The spurs have scored over 100 points in 3 straight games. 128, 101, and 116. The Spurs did have quite a game on Sunday - ya don't expect them to give up 64 in the 1H...well.....ever. Really, the sonics played pretty well hitting 52.6% and 40% from 3pt land, but the spurs were out of this world hitting 51.2% and 57.9% on 3pt%. 23 of 24 from the FT line sure helped em, too.

Parker played 35 minutes.
Duncan played 34 minutes.
Bowen played 34 minutes.
Oberto and Ginobili both played 28 minutes.

and the Spurs are on the last day of a 5th in 7 and a brief road trip.

Not sure any of that warrants considering a play. In fact, since they go back on the road after Wednesday's game, that one may be a better spot for a huge upset loss for them.
 
To me it does, Red. It definitely does. Warrant a play on the Kings that is. I agree with everything you wrote and even though you might be on the scale here I will pull the trigger. Not a big play though.

My condolences about your wife's grandad, red. :shake: hang in there.
 
thanks. today was the new widow's turn in the hospital. She hadn't been taking her blood pressure medication, and she had a minor stroke this morn.

it's been a rough week.
 
The Spurs have one day at home wednesday, and then they go on the road again........I would definitely support a dog spread play, but I haven't decided to play the ML yet.

not sure what will sway me.....
 
Wouldn't fade Portland at home... remember from my head they covered a small # vs. Orlando last year when Orlando was real hot... similar situation.

GSW opened around 5, saw 5.5 and then bumped to 4.5... I played the ML at that point... they seem to play great off a day of rest.

Knicks seem to own the Jazz compared to other teams... Marbury likes to actually play games when it involves opposing hyped up PG's... especially the younger ones like Paul and Williams. I think the Knicks get another win here SU vs. a tired Jazz team who had to really press hard to beat a beatup Pistons team.
 
Nov 20 at Atlanta W 95-83 Parker 31/Oberto 10/Parker 9
Nov 21 vs Orlando W 128-110 Parker 32/Duncan 16/Parker 9
Nov 23 vs Memphis W 101-88 Duncan 28/Duncan 9/Parker 8
Nov 25 at Seattle W 116-101 Duncan 26/Oberto 9/Parker 7

Nov 26 at Sacramento 10:00 pm

Nov 28 vs Washington 8:30 pm
Nov 30 at Minnesota 8:00 pm
Dec 2 vs Portland 3:30 pm
Dec 5 vs Dallas 8:30 pm
Dec 7 vs Utah

Minny will be the end of a lot of travel for em. And these are some dangerous games going on right now for the spurs. I doubt they go undefeated over the next few. The question I'm facing is -when- do I roll with the spurs fade.
 
thanks for the thoughts...

Inspekdah said:
Wouldn't fade Portland at home... remember from my head they covered a small # vs. Orlando last year when Orlando was real hot... similar situation.
Click to expand...

these are different teams from last year, and Portland has an incredible ability to suck total ass when facing 3/4 or full-court this year. This magic team is perfectly suited to get 20 steals against em tonight.

GSW opened around 5, saw 5.5 and then bumped to 4.5... I played the ML at that point... they seem to play great off a day of rest.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm just trying to figure out where/when I can get the best number for this one. Probably several hours ago...

'an_horse'


Knicks seem to own the Jazz compared to other teams... Marbury likes to actually play games when it involves opposing hyped up PG's... especially the younger ones like Paul and Williams. I think the Knicks get another win here SU vs. a tired Jazz team who had to really press hard to beat a beatup Pistons team.
Click to expand...

You have a point about the Jazz being tired - that may well come into it in the 4th. I still haven't played the Jazz, and I probly won't, but I do still lean that way.

Deron Williams is likely so freakin happy his toe isn't hurting anymore that he'll be unstoppable for more than a week. Ever had an ingrown toe-nail and then NOT had it the next day? It's damned near orgasmic.

I think the biggest key of this game is who wins the rebounding, and both teams do that well. BAR thinks the Jazz will put forth that extra effort to get to more loose balls, and I can see that. Still.......it's just more points than I want to lay. I was thinking 2 would be good. 5 strikes me as questionable. gL in whatever you decide.
 
thanks ToFurkey.

okay, I missed the best of the line while I was away this morn. I bought a new gun, so I think it was worthwhile.

:)

Warriors +171.5

that makes my wagers for today:

Magic -4 (-110)
Clippers +235
Warriors +171.5
 
apparently, I lied. I'm most of the way to getting +180 at MB...which will work out to

Warriors +176.4

there's $160 left. someone go get the Suns -180 for $160, please.
 
I really like the Warriors play. Some interesting #'s supporting the Warriors in BC's road trip trend thread at the top of the forum.
 
I am reasonable sure Orlando will win the game. Portland wins vs Hornets Detroit and Dallas were all in very good spots and this actually is a bad spot. Orlando is looking ahead to road games vs very strong teams but for me the problem is I actually do think Portland is due for a serious upward move. Talking about that would take too much time but bottom line I may use Orlando in a ml parlay but do not have the balls to play them straight today. GL
 
well, I think my Kings thought is the most iffy prospect on the board. The Queens may well win, but I likely won't be playing them.

Tuck, JPicks, let's get this warriors win, fellas.

:shake:
 
Phoenix 2H -5.5 (+114)

I do think the Suns will come back a bit...I hope the Warriors still win, but if Phoenix wins, I'm covered, and I have a nice little middle, too.
 
someday I'll learn not to play 2H wagers. Barring a miracle by the Clippers which is not going to come, I made a little bit today. Woulda been better if I hadn't have tried to middle the Suns 2H. I can only complain so much.

But I did miss out on a lot of good dogs today. 5 of 7 dogs won straight up today. So given that I managed 1-1 isn't really that good. But I'll take it.

there've been a lot of odd calls in this Clippers game.....apparently it's okay to mug Dan Dickau every time he dares to cross the 3pt line. But still, the Clippers just didn't hit a lot of shots in the 4th, and T-Mac couldn't fucking miss. It happens.

anyway

ML dogs: 16-14, 53.33%, +16.78 units

Tomorrow, I'll be looking at

Atlanta ML
Celtics -FG or less
Indiana/Denver depending on O'neal status and Denver line. With luck, it'll be lower than the 8 or 9 I expect.

interesting.

ESPN just mentioned that the Spurs, Suns, and Mavs all losing on the same day hasn't happened for like 4 years. Craziness.
 
Sorry about 2h wager, I almost never play them, there should be good money to made after getting 24minutes to check out how each team is looking. Yet I never seem to have anyluck. But all that matters is you came out ahead
 
Thanks dynomite.

I do like the Celtics for tonight, and if I keep poking around, I'm sure I'll convince myself to play them. I would venture a word of caution to those who are backing the Cavs tonight - this last little stretch where Lebron's been getting triple doubles and the Cavs have been winning and mostly covering......

11/14/2007 vs Orlando L 117 - 116 L (-3)
11/16/2007 vs Utah W 99 - 94 W (0) U (199½)
11/20/2007 vs Milwaukee L 111 - 107 L (-6)
11/21/2007 at Minnesota W 97 - 86 W (-5)
11/24/2007 vs Toronto W 111 - 108 L (-4½)
11/25/2007 at Indiana W 111 - 106 W (2)

This Boston team had a bad night out last time in Charlotte, and they still won. When the cavs have faced a good team this year, over and over again, they have lost.

Dallas, Phoenix, Utah, Denver, Orlando, and even at home to Milwaukee.

Just don't be too surprised if the Celtics clean their clocks tonight. This is the same Cavs team that's been struggling to stay at or above .500 all year long.

Boston is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Boston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Boston is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 6-8 ATS this year

Having said all that, I ain't betting the Celtics. I'm thinking I just need a day off.......

only thing I might take is the Hawks ML because the bulls still haven't shown me they can shoot. Or do much of anything besides lose.
 
Celtics -3.5 (-110)

managed to think myself into it. I knew I should have gone shooting this evening...
 
HAHAHA...scratch that. not accepted because the game has started. And I didn't even go shooting. Only the Hawks. Yay.
 
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