NBA Finals...What's at stake?...Also thoughts and plays...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well, we have one helluva series upcoming that has huge historical ties moving forward for both teams and that could potentially affect the landscape of the league for the next several years...

The San Antonio Spurs have been the most consistent team in the NBA over the past 25 years(yes lets go back to Robinson's beginning and throw away 96-97 season). A truly impressive run that seemed to culminate after the 2007 championship but here we were six years later last year where the Spurs gave away that 5th ring. Now, a year later here they are again and they have the team they wanted. If they manage to prevail, is this the end? Is that their concluding goal? Also, if they lose how the heck do they muster the will to do this all over again next year. I believe this to be the defining moment of their careers collectively.

The Miami Heat are on the brink of a 3-peat. Yes, I would put an asterisk of sorts due to the fact the East has been so putrid. With that being said they still go out and win the games and it isn't their fault the rest of the conference has been dog-shit. This is where they were supposed to be anyway after grouping together 4 years ago. I do believe this is their 2nd to last shot though. Wade might have some glimpses of greatness but his game as a whole will keep declining. Bosh is Bosh, perplexing as always and then there is the Bron factor. The best thing that could happen to him is to lose this series, go back home and have a chance at multiple more championships. The worst thing that could happen is to win and come back for that 4th ring in a row and perhaps get it but now he is stuck with a team like the one he left(sort of). We'll see. Obviously it doesn't boil down to just that wrt to leaving at some point but for simplicity sake that is my thinking...

Whats new this year?

-The 2-2-1-1-1 format is back. I personally have never witnessed a NBA Finals with it so tht should be interesting.

-The Spurs have HCA this year. We have seen how SA homecourt has propelled them since Game 1 versus Dallas.

I know who I will be rooting for this series. With that said I don't even really dislike the Heat anymore. I guess with how shitty the East is you have to root for them to get to the Finals to ensure a competitive, entertaining Finals.

The series line came out a little higher than I figured with the Spurs being favored. That has settled back somewhat as it should. The Game 1 line suggests to me that on a nuetral court the Heat would be ever-so-slightly favored.

I am glad I have a few more days to dissect this series. It should be a great one again and I fully look forward to it. GL on your plays, I'll post mine in this thread.
 
It's hard to say that an NBA finals into the 18th season with as many post season games as Duncan has played would be "career defining" for him. I think I do agree with the sentiment that it is the organizations defining moment. The Spurs decided to run it back for the last few seasons. They ran into several teams playing at the peak of their powers along the way. Memphis surprised them when Randolph played the series of his life. OKC crushed them, with a lot of help from the 90% shooting from ibaka and perkins in the series defining game 5. If the Thunder played as well in the finals, who knows what would've happened. Last season, both teams played well enough to win but only one could. These kind of losses have the ability to break up a franchise but the Spurs made no real adjustments to their core lineup. They added a few role players along the way, but it's amazing how long this squad has stayed together. A championship is the only way that they can justify such inactivity in the free agent market over the years.

Miami playing worse as a whole then they were last season. IDK, it just seems as the level of play has dropped. They're a little banged up of course, but overall... I think they were a stronger team in the last 2 years. With that said, Wade looks much better then he did in last season's playoffs so who knows. As much as it pains me to say it, Bosh's shooting % is going to go a long way towards keeping the Heat competitive on the road or allowing HCA carry SAS to a championship in my opinion. Miami's going to need the 3 ball in this series. They're going to need spot performances from Allen and maybe even Lewis or Jones who knows. Bosh's ability to knock down the long jumpers will do a lot to open up lanes for Lebron and help Miami get more open shots for Wade as well. If Miami's unable to move the ball as well as they did against Indiana, they don't have much of a chance to win this series and I think that's going to be one of Pop's biggest focuses.

Killa rationed it pretty well recently. He said that he doesn't see SAS losing in 6, and the Spurs will be slightly favored in game 7 so I gotta give the edge to the Spurs here. I think there's a very good chance we get to see 7 home wins in this series.

The big ?? is Tony Parker's health. I expect he'll be fine, but the Spurs need his offense. If he's not himself...it'll be very hard for them to win on the road and most likely will let Miami steal a game in SAS and then Heat in 6 looks pretty damn good.

Either way, I'm psyched. Round 2, DING DING.
 
i can see ivy gettin bukakked in the face with popovitches jizz all over this damn nba forum..gl bar.
 
straight up ...gangster talk im feeling (almost )you want to do it ...Its for the taking ...breath and remind yourself...we are all going to crush this series and you will lead us ...It has been written ....yes sir, Mr .Big Al Reno...All ears :dancing:
 
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goodluck pal :shake: Parker is a go for game 1 apparently..got hate these headlines though "Spurs series to lose"..do think they get it done this time, but they are public darlings this series
 
Spurs win in 6. Dunkin and Ginobli call it a day. Dunkin leaves with a level of class rarely seen in sports past or present. Best in last decade.
 
Hate to bring this up, but Tim Duncan is spelled with an "A". Not an "I". First time, I wrote it off as a typo. Second time, no good lol.
 
IvyinBarondise said:
excellent contribution...blown away both by your astoundingly quick wit and you ability to turn a phrase
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I'm obviously laughing at HUNTs wit if you can't handle it then get out.
Give it a rest dude, if the Spurs weren't in the Finals you'd be down wimpering somewhere. It's not like I'm the only one bemused by some of your posts recently why don't you start making silly comments on others here...like the whole forum?
 
Toronto_Mike said:
I'm obviously laughing at HUNTs wit if you can't handle it then get out.
Give it a rest dude, if the Spurs weren't in the Finals you'd be down wimpering somewhere. It's not like I'm the only one bemused by some of your posts recently why don't you start making silly comments on others here...like the whole forum?
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OBVIOUSLY, and well worth it too...

Seek masturbation elsewhere. You have nothing to add? Good stfu. You wanna pile on a bandwagon with your little internet friends? Cute, enjoy.

Wimpering? LMAO...I've been posting nba plays and turned a profit since 05. You're bemused are you? You need the cover of your lil internet friends to contradict me with confidence? My posts that have met with criticism are all about LAC being a good purchase. I guess you and a few CTG posters know more then billion dollar businessman now. blah blah blah...keep posting here, have fun ripping into me because "EVERYONES doin it". I come here to talk to people who have something to offer, and if you have, do, or will, I'll interact. If not, I'm done acknowledging your presence. I really despise guys who love to pile on strangers, with other strangers, for absolutely zero benefit. It's sad really.

this is an NBA FORUM, and this is BAR'S thread. Haven't been laid in a while eh?
 
IvyinBarondise said:
Wimpering? LMAO...I've been posting nba plays and turned a profit since 05. You're bemused are you? You need the cover of your lil internet friends to contradict me with confidence? My posts that have met with criticism are all about LAC being a good purchase. I guess you and a few CTG posters know more then billion dollar businessman now. blah blah blah...keep posting here, have fun ripping into me because "EVERYONES doin it"
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You and TM can have your little tussle, but I do want to talk about this topic. First, you didn't simply say that the Clippers purchase was good....you said that the Clippers would supplant the Lakers as Top Dog in LA....no one else agreed with that, for obvious reasons. Second, just because the guy is a billionaire doesn't mean that he knows everything about ALL businesses...he didn't make his billions in the NBA, so we can't simply assume he knows what he's doing when he purchases the Clippers. He is paying AT LEAST twice as much as the franchise is currently valued at (Forbes estimated their value at $500 million but that is probably low....they are probably closer to $750MM - $1B). He's going to have to do an awful lot to even start turning a profit since he just paid $1B more than they are worth. Many owners is pro sports also don't care if they make money....they make money in their other business ventures, and don't mind losing some with a pro sports franchise as it can offset some of their tax liability.
 
Ivy you have left for weeks after spurs lost before..enjoy the moment..gl..and you have been spot on this year.
 
CAPital said:
If I'm able to over pay by $1B on ANYTHING in my life I'll consider it a success
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Sure. He was one of the few who could afford to do it though, as evidenced by him now being the wealthiest individual pro sports owner in the US.
 
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I personally see both teams stealing 1 on the road in the first 4. Come back to the Alamo for the swing 5, Spurs win and then go back to the scene of the crime for game 6 and avenge the debacle last year
 
bar what's happening my brother i'm a football guy but any time you give me HEAT +110 for the series I will take that any day of the week bol
 
dilaudid8 said:
bar what's happening my brother i'm a football guy but any time you give me HEAT +110 for the series I will take that any day of the week bol
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Wait a game IMHO...better value...that is my early thought obv leaning Sperms game one...
 
CAPital said:
I personally see both teams stealing 1 on the road in the first 4. Come back to the Alamo for the swing 5, Spurs win and then go back to the scene of the crime for game 6 and avenge the debacle last year
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This would make for a great series imho...both showed they can win on other court last year.
 
From a historical pov, the Spurs under Pop (let alone any other coach) have never won a title in a season that began in an odd numbered year.

The just slightly more serious stat for them is they've never won the NBA Finals when they made the Western Conf Finals the previous season: all 4 of their Finals wins have come off losses in the WC semis the season before. The meaning of this stat for me is, cumulative deep playoff runs take their toll (most immediate/best example in any sport that comes to mind are the Bruins). Miami is getting away with it because their journey through the East is so easy: 1 hard series per playoffs at most, on top of a cake walk regular season. The Spurs aren't being so obliged in the Western Conf. reg. season or playoffs. Yes, they've looked just as emphatic in dealing to Western playoff teams as Miami has, but at a much greater cost (seen in their game 3 & 4 losses in OKC when they didn't have "full fuel tanks" to give their very best, emptied by previous emphatic efforts). That's a big factor in Miami's corner as I see it. Consecutive deep playoff runs take a toll on any team in any sport, with one current exception: a team from the NBA's Eastern Conference. On this basis I don't believe the Spurs win in anything short of 6 games (well, not just that basis alone. NBA skulduggery will ensure a 6 game series at least). Gun to my head I'd guess Miami in 6 or Spurs in 7.
 
Love the info you bring however in this series it won't matter, the series goes back to the old format.. So home court does Matter.. Plus the 6 days off between games kinda washes the tiresome theory.. It will all depend on the ref and what comm silver wants
 
IvyinBarondise said:
This is the first time I have no idea who the NBA would want to win
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If the NBA wants LeBron back in Cleveland, then you have to assume they want to see SA win. I don't see how LeBron goes back to Cleveland if they are on a 3 championship streak...there's almost zero chance it happens if they win their 3rd this year. I'm not even sure the odds are super high that he goes back to Cleveland if they lose, but the chances have to be exponentially higher if SA wins this year.
 
IvyinBarondise said:
BC, I'm not 100% sure...but didn't Miami have multiple 7 games series once or even twice in the past two seasons?
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Over the last 4 seasons, Miami has played in a total of two 7-game series (ECF from different seasons) prior to the finals.

I 'spose the good news for the Spurs is, the only one of the last 3 completed seasons in which Miami didn't get involved in a 7-game series prior to the finals, were the only finals they didn't win (vs. Dallas). Possibly a case of, the East being so weak as to not being able to truly test them prior to the finals left them vulnerable in the finals proper. Certainly Indy fell away during the reg. season, and failed to materialise the threat they initially seemed to be capable of producing.



TheCashMan said:
Love the info you bring however in this series it won't matter, the series goes back to the old format.. So home court does Matter.. Plus the 6 days off between games kinda washes the tiresome theory.. It will all depend on the ref and what comm silver wants
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A 6 day gap doesn't rid a team of the (let's call it, somewhat bloatedly) long-term acculumlative erosion of psychological resources. This isn't about a physical toll in & of itself (6 days might be too much rest/absence of playing time, rather than too little from the phsyical pov), it's about mental ones. Don't get me wrong, I think they're better than Miami. But the better team doesn't always win. I see it as a factor that's an inertia to their winning these finals, but not a fatal element.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
A 6 day gap doesn't rid a team of the (let's call it, somewhat bloatedly) long-term acculumlative erosion of psychological resources. This isn't about a physical toll in & of itself (6 days might be too much rest/absence of playing time, rather than too little from the phsyical pov), it's about mental ones. Don't get me wrong, I think they're better than Miami. But the better team doesn't always win. I see it as a factor that's an inertia to their winning these finals, but not a fatal element.
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I'm not sure I'd even agree with your assertion that a team's psyche has been eroded to begin with, but in your first post you were clearly talking about their physical well being. These guys are all pros playing at the highest level in their sport, I just can't see how any team's psyche is "eroded" to the point where it's noticeable and will have an impact. Their physical well being is much more relevant, and I think CashMan's point about the additional rest as well as the 2-2-1-1-1 format is valid.
 
Lareux said:
I'm not sure I'd even agree with your assertion that a team's psyche has been eroded to begin with, but in your first post you were clearly talking about their physical well being. These guys are all pros playing at the highest level in their sport, I just can't see how any team's psyche is "eroded" to the point where it's noticeable and will have an impact. Their physical well being is much more relevant, and I think CashMan's point about the additional rest as well as the 2-2-1-1-1 format is valid.
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You may have read that into my post, but I never stated such specifically. In two different sentences I used the notion of "taking a toll" -

The meaning of this stat for me is, cumulative deep playoff runs take their toll

Consecutive deep playoff runs take a toll on any team in any sport

And one in I indicated their energy reserves (using the phrase, fuel tanks) being lacking -

seen in their game 3 & 4 losses in OKC when they didn't have "full fuel tanks" to give their very best, emptied by previous emphatic efforts

 The reason I didn't state such explicitly initially is because lesser physical peformances & a stale/lacking/run down psychology are to me intrinsic realities (therefore it goes without saying). Elite teams don't (barring injuries) produce their physical best when they're psychologically rundown (stop the press). Capping the weaker efforts of elite teams is all about capping the when & wherefore of their psychologically vulnerable states (again, when injuries aren't a factor). And ftr, when I use the notion of a player's or team's fuel tank (which I regularly do), I never mean solely physical or psychological fuel: I mean both.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
You may have read that into my post, but I never stated such specifically. In two different sentences I used the notion of "taking a toll" -

The meaning of this stat for me is, cumulative deep playoff runs take their toll

Consecutive deep playoff runs take a toll on any team in any sport

And one in I indicated their energy reserves (using the phrase, fuel tanks) being lacking -

seen in their game 3 & 4 losses in OKC when they didn't have "full fuel tanks" to give their very best, emptied by previous emphatic efforts

 The reason I didn't state such explicitly initially is because lesser physical peformances & a stale/lacking/run down psychology are to me intrinsic realities (therefore it goes without saying). Elite teams don't (barring injuries) produce their physical best when they're psychologically rundown (stop the press). Capping the weaker efforts of elite teams is all about capping the when & wherefore of their psychologically vulnerable states (again, when injuries aren't a factor). And ftr, when I use the notion of a player's or team's fuel tank (which I regularly do), I never mean solely physical or psychological fuel: I mean both.
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Yeah, I'm sorry but "full fuel tank" pretty much means physically to everyone else but you. I have never heard that phrase used in sports meaning anything other than physically. I get your point now, and I'm not trying to knock you at all....just letting you know why I read it the way I did.
 
Either way, any lingering fatigue factors (both mental and/or physical) won't show up in Game 1. My belief is it's harder to lose consecutive Finals appearances than it is to win them.
 
BC; you have hilariously good information and incredible insight. Thought there were more game 7s in there for Miami...I was thinking about Indiana and I think I was just remembering Boston I guess, I honestly don't remember. But I think you've lost a little perspective when it comes to how the post season went for SAS. The Dallas series was much harder then expected but that was a month ago, and Pop would argue they needed to get knocked around a bit. From game 7 of that series, through Portland and into the OKC series...they only played one closely contested game in which any key players really exerted themselves. Aside from that, they're incredibly mentally tough and I'm not expecting any real mental fatigue. You'd have to concede that with how deep SAS is, how few minutes their stars have played, and the time to work on nagging injury, a fatigue factor would be very slight.
 
Who says Cabron would go back to that shit hole of Cleveland after a taste of South Beach? Hell, he certainly doesn't need the money, so that's that.
 
spanishshark said:
Who says Cabron would go back to that shit hole of Cleveland after a taste of South Beach? Hell, he certainly doesn't need the money, so that's that.
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Well it's not a certainty, but that's certainly the rumor. Anytime it's been mentioned in here though, it was simply to point out that if the Heat win again, there is virtually zero chance he would go back after this season.
 
@BC: your insight makes sense but on the other hand, i think spurs are on a "mission" since beginning of playoffs" cause they feel they are old and that's their last chance to win it all (ginobili, parker, duncan well over 30 years old). What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. To progress/to grow as a team you need to suffer collectively, that's what happenend to spurs last year vs MIA and previous seasons after their last NBA Finals title.

DOn't know if the comparison is good or know, but djokovic before defeating Nadal in 2012 AO in 5 sets and 6 hours he had to play 5 sets vs murray less than 48 hours ago.
Same for Nadal who won vs Verdasco in 5 sets in 2009 AO, then beat federer in 5 sets where everybody expected nadal to be tired for the final with 24 hours less of rest.
Some time fatigue gives you a temporary run and rush of "adrenalin with killer instinct"
winning a title like that is about which team is more hungry than the other, answer: spurs of course. Heat already won it twice and could feel some kind of lassitude whereas spurs feel this is their last chance.
I mean when you trounce by more than 30 points OKC with MVP during the payoffs you have something special +HCA which will be the 6th spurs man on the court
 
Spurs have the best 'minute management' in the league, being so deep has it's perks.
 
Heat will also miss having both Shuttlesworth and Mike Miller on the court at the same time, that line-up wrinkle caused havoc vs the Spurs last Finals. Basically won them the series, Ray-Ray don't hit 'that shot' if Miller wasn't out there on the floor.
 
edou1x said:
@BC: your insight makes sense but on the other hand, i think spurs are on a "mission" since beginning of playoffs" cause they feel they are old and that's their last chance to win it all (ginobili, parker, duncan well over 30 years old). What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. To progress/to grow as a team you need to suffer collectively, that's what happenend to spurs last year vs MIA and previous seasons after their last NBA Finals title.

DOn't know if the comparison is good or know, but djokovic before defeating Nadal in 2012 AO in 5 sets and 6 hours he had to play 5 sets vs murray less than 48 hours ago.
Same for Nadal who won vs Verdasco in 5 sets in 2009 AO, then beat federer in 5 sets where everybody expected nadal to be tired for the final with 24 hours less of rest.
Some time fatigue gives you a temporary run and rush of "adrenalin with killer instinct"
winning a title like that is about which team is more hungry than the other, answer: spurs of course. Heat already won it twice and could feel some kind of lassitude whereas spurs feel this is their last chance.
I mean when you trounce by more than 30 points OKC with MVP during the payoffs you have something special +HCA which will be the 6th spurs man on the court
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I think I need to reiterate that I don't see this as any sort of terminal factor, more inertia to their aims. They may well trounce the inertia this reality presents by the pros they have going for them (HCA, Miami itself playing its 4th straight final, et al). But in relation to your tennis example (& Cashman pointing out the 6 days rest), this isn't about immediate taxing events (again, I think the 6 days rest actually hurts them physically more than it does help them). This is about the cumulative effect of long season after long season. Fact remains that this ('12-13 & '13-14) is the first time the Spurs have made consecutive finals. Have they not had better teams in the past on paper that were in far greater positions to manage the same? They've basically always been making the playoffs since Pop's been at the helm, so it's their history not to manage deep playoff runs off a deep playoff run the year before. They've no great history of significant injuries to their best players to explain that reality (lack of injuries = their ability to make the playoffs repeatedly over such a long stretch of time).

If I was to take a tennis example, I'd take Murray losing the '12 Wimby final, then winning the Olympic gold, then winning the US Open for a first Slam title, then making the '13 AO final after the off season break, then skipping the FO to save energy for then winning Wimby. After all that, he flunked out of the US Open in the quarters (winning 9 total games in getting hammered by Wawrinka) then failed at the same stage of this year's AO (won 1 set vs. an aging Federer, in a tiebreak. Roger won his 3 sets only needing 6 games for each set). The accumulative effects of expending so much energy in the tournies he cares most for have taken their toll in his last 2 Slams (those USO & AO QF losses were the first time since the first 2 Slams of 2009 that he'd failed to make at least 1 semi-final in 2 straight Slams played). Did he suddenly lose the ability to? No, the answer I posit is the cumulative effects of making so many deep runs over a 12 month period took their toll on him mentally (the very reason he skipped the '13 FO. He knew his tank was emptying, so he saved what he had left for Wimby). He got stale, couldn't sustain the peak form necessary to win at that level. His losses were ugly, they weren't tight affairs. In real terms, he has not won any tournament since that Wimbledon win. Looks like his reserves are starting to get topped back up, since he made only his 2nd ever FO SF yesterday, good news for his Wimby chances.
 
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emkee said:
Either way, any lingering fatigue factors (both mental and/or physical) won't show up in Game 1. My belief is it's harder to lose consecutive Finals appearances than it is to win them.
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Other than the Utah Jazz it just doesn't happen and they had a mental midget in Malone against the G.O.A.T.
 
Good reads in here...

I didn't expect the line to go up to 4.5 to be honest. I am not the best line-reader at times lol.

I'll make my final decision tomorrow about 5pm eastern I have work from 12-4 and then 6-3 so won't be around much. Will be back to discuss much more Saturday.
 
B.A.R. said:
Wait a game IMHO...better value...that is my early thought obv leaning Sperms game one...
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BAR your 100 percent about waiting a game I can get HEAT +115. the only thing that scares me not taking the HEAT right off the bat is that if HEAT win this 1 game all the series bets are off
 
Obviously dissapointed I layed off the bet but at a number I was not feeling the best about and a few other factors I went with my gut. It happens.

I ended up being so crammed at work I barely saw any of the game. I just learned about the AC issues and CrampGate as well.

As an aside, whoop-de-doo about the AC. Go play in Boston Garden in June in the 80's during the finals. That was much worse and prolly smelled like death in an old gym.

Looking at box...phenomenal shooting by Spurs. What was up with all their TO's? I saw at one point their ratio to assists was basically 1:1.
 
2nd unit was feeling it, think most of the energy was surrounded by Manu.
Chalmers became a non factor immediately with the 3 fouls.

Heat did what they needed to do, Wade and Bron attacked, Allen hit his shots, but Spurs just were more proficient.
 
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