NBA Basketball... Playoffs...

[B.A.R.]

Couple series plays to get things started...

Miami Heat Series -400

I'm sorry, this is a ridiculous price. I thought maybe they lowballed it at 600 but this should be 700-750 minimum. Yes, I understand that Miami isn't everyones sexy #1 seed. With that being said, this team is built for the playoffs and should have very little issue with the Hawks, I wrote about it a bit in the discussion thread but 4-2 is about the worst result I see here.

Milwaukee to win in 4 games +225 1.33 to win 3.00
Milwaukee to win in 5 games +150 2.00 to win 3.00

As long as the Bucks take care of business as they should this will net us some profit. You can keep it simply and simply bet the Bucks -2.5 games at -210. But, even with the 4 game win netting 1 unit total, we would be saving 10 cents. As I said in the conference discussion thread, this series shouldn't be too hard for Milwaukee against a Bulls team that is a shadow of itself from early in the season., The champs are here, and should win this series in short fashion.

 

[guaranteeed]

Love em both, heat are being disrespected and this bucks team knows how to game playoffs now, knows how much that rest will help them vs boston or the nets, I think they go hard for 4.

 

[Hulu]

I just took Bucks -2.5 gms myself.

Great minds...

 

[AtlHawks]

Trae Young will be the best player on the court. Talk about disrespect, dude ballin out of control.

7 game series if Capela plays

 

[Inspekdah]

Bulls are a trade/year away from competing. Awful vs good teams and Game 3 is their only shot.

 

[survive&advance]

Couple series plays to get things started...

Miami Heat Series -400

I'm sorry, this is a ridiculous price. I thought maybe they lowballed it at 600 but this should be 700-750 minimum. Yes, I understand that Miami isn't everyones sexy #1 seed. With that being said, this team is built for the playoffs and should have very little issue with the Hawks, I wrote about it a bit in the discussion thread but 4-2 is about the worst result I see here.

Milwaukee to win in 4 games +225 1.33 to win 3.00
Milwaukee to win in 5 games +150 2.00 to win 3.00

As long as the Bucks take care of business as they should this will net us some profit. You can keep it simply and simply bet the Bucks -2.5 games at -210. But, even with the 4 game win netting 1 unit total, we would be saving 10 cents. As I said in the conference discussion thread, this series shouldn't be too hard for Milwaukee against a Bulls team that is a shadow of itself from early in the season., The champs are here, and should win this series in short fashion.

Bucks -2.5 games opened around -120 I believe. I got -140 and if it doesn’t hit I’ll be eating ramen for a bit

 

[B.A.R.]

Trae Young will be the best player on the court. Talk about disrespect, dude ballin out of control.

7 game series if Capela plays

Sure, he is the best player on the court but we all know that means diddly in the scheme of things.

I do not like capping playoffs on regular season like the old days but a couple things to ponder... obv Miami was 3-1 vs the Hawks (loss was by 2 points). The Hawks also averaged nearly 7 less ppg that their season average. Meanwhile, the Heat averaged around 5 more ppg in the season series compared to the rest of their games.

Food for thought,..

 

[B.A.R.]

Bulls are a trade/year away from competing. Awful vs good teams and Game 3 is their only shot.

Yeah, still on a good track, no doubt.

They just peaked, for this season, really early.

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright, lets talk Day #1 o the playoffs...

Fwiw, I didn't get to watch too much intently. I wasn't looking to play much but had some good fortune in the 1st game playing the 2nd half under and then going over with 10 left in the game for a tidy little middle. That was a nice, unexpected start to the playoffs. I have done boxscore capping along with notes from a few other handicappers via text...

Sounds like Minnesota was pretty flawless? The FT shooting as well as everything else on offense was terrific. Yes, this creates some nice value next game and I'll be betting that one most likely. The weird stat here is Steven Adams played half the game and didn't attempt a shot? Hmmm...

Dallas and Utah was a dead under game. Tough to be good on offense when Brunson attempts 24 shots and only makes 9. Again, a weird stat here or no? Rudy with ONE shot attempt? Good lord.

Philly and Toronto scoring that many points is quite astounding. Maxey was brilliant it seems. This feels like a zig zag game coming up, at least ATS...

Dubs will have no issue winning this series. I am kicking myself for laying off... Not much more to say here. Please blow this up Denver after the series is over.

Happy Easter all!

Small return but Suns and Bucks ML parlay isn't too bad tomorrow... find a 3rd for a better payout...

 

[KJ]

Alright, lets talk Day #1 o the playoffs...

Fwiw, I didn't get to watch too much intently. I wasn't looking to play much but had some good fortune in the 1st game playing the 2nd half under and then going over with 10 left in the game for a tidy little middle. That was a nice, unexpected start to the playoffs. I have done boxscore capping along with notes from a few other handicappers via text...

Sounds like Minnesota was pretty flawless? The FT shooting as well as everything else on offense was terrific. Yes, this creates some nice value next game and I'll be betting that one most likely. The weird stat here is Steven Adams played half the game and didn't attempt a shot? Hmmm...

Dallas and Utah was a dead under game. Tough to be good on offense when Brunson attempts 24 shots and only makes 9. Again, a weird stat here or no? Rudy with ONE shot attempt? Good lord.

Philly and Toronto scoring that many points is quite astounding. Maxey was brilliant it seems. This feels like a zig zag game coming up, at least ATS...

Dubs will have no issue winning this series. I am kicking myself for laying off... Not much more to say here. Please blow this up Denver after the series is over.

Happy Easter all!

Small return but Suns and Bucks ML parlay isn't too bad tomorrow... find a 3rd for a better payout...

DK

Bucks/Suns/Chelsea ML +122

Bucks/Suns/PSG ML -109

PSG have revenge, Marseille beat them in Paris first time in 10 years last season and PSG are scoring at will lately

Gonna chew on these

 

[Hulu]

Small return but Suns and Bucks ML parlay isn't too bad tomorrow... find a 3rd for a better payout...

I'd pair with the Heat for somewhere around -110. The Hawks are not in the greatest of spots today although I wouldn't touch the spread.

 

[pcbsg_12]

Agree with ya that Heat are a class above the Hawks

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright, few more days in the books... let us recap a bit...

The Friday night play-in winners generally had a tough time Sunday in their games. A quick turnaround did not help the Hawks, nor did a suffocating Miami defense. Phoenix jumped all over the Pels but I give NOLA credit for showing fight in the 2nd half of that game....

Boston and New Jersey was just a terrific basketball game. Uncle Drew was outstanding and hopefully for Nets fans we see Durantula back to his usual form in the next game. A classic 'holy shit' ending and we are off and running in what I see as a 7 game series. Yes, I still think the Nets win although I am not placing any money on that as of now.

Milwaukee was very lucky to win game #1. Both teams shot awful, that was a mix of bad basketball and solid defense. Hence, a game like that goes under big-time. Coach Bud was not at his finest in this one. The Bucks were making a nice run around the 4 min mark and had all the momentum and he calls timeout. They come out of that with a set play turnover and the Bulls started climbing back in it. Then, late in the game as he was using Giannis in offensive/defensive situations due to foul trouble, he DOES NOT call a timeout to get him back in the game. Very curious decision there letting him stand at scorers table in a critical offensive possession. After all this, Chicago fouls down three with more time left on shot clock than game clock(granted, a slight injury). Just a weird game, all around. I feel fortunate that the Bucks escaped with one here.

Last night...

Philly and Toronto was an odd game. The amount of FT's early on was wild to me. Toronto played a great 1st quarter, then pretty much packed things in with some terrible offense the rest of the way. The live total here was 237.5 around 4-5 mins left in the 2nd. The game total was 215.5. This game ended at 209. I had multiple unders that I tried to middle and came away with nothing. I am still convinced that the NBA execs made a call late 2nd quarter to stop with all the foul calls so we didn't have this game leaking into the Warriors time slot.

Utah gonna Utah. I know a lot of guys had overs here, and such a good call. This was such a consistent offensive game in the 2h. The first time I believe we went more than a minute without a score in the half was under 2 mins left. Brunson bounced back in a big way and now they have some momentum heading into a hornets nest for the next two games. I say rest Luke till Game 4 and then go win the damn series.

Late game was classic Warriors. At the 43-31 deficit they started playing defense and that fed the rest. Poole and Chef were amazing and Klay wasn't too far behind. That is a fun lineup to watch when they are cooking. As you know, I am not a Denver fan due to their coach. Blow this up guys, it's not working! Stop wasting prime Jokic years.

These first two rounds are just a prelude to Suns and Dubs which will be EPIC...

Cannot wait..

 

[B.A.R.]

Tonight....

Hawks and Heat has very little interest from myself. I am envisioning a tight game which Miami 'steals' as home late. We shall see. Obviously the gameplan on Trae was solid in the first meeting but he will get his a bit tonight. He is simply too good not to. Obviously I'll be watching total live...

Late night in the Valley I'll be hoping that the Pels come out and get a lead so I can get the Suns discounted. This is also a game I'd love to see a 120+ point first half to get in on an under. We shall see...

Middle game is the one I am looking at... should be ample opportunities in this one to make money... not totally sure of any pregame angles yet but will report back before tip-off in here (live bets go in in-game or b/u live thread). I will say this about props... I get betting props to 'bet' them... but make sure you are getting some bang for your buck. The playoffs seem to bring out a lot of inflation on props, especially for star players.

Back in a bit...

 

[2daBank]

totally agree w your thoughts on the props. It easy to expect Ja to have monster game but they charging a huge premium for him (as they have others). Gotta remember how good griz been without him, they don’t have to have him going HAM to get this game imo. There def spots to make some plays (found them yesterday!) but I think less is more a good mindset.

 

[twinkie13]

Tonight....

Hawks and Heat has very little interest from myself. I am envisioning a tight game which Miami 'steals' as home late. We shall see. Obviously the gameplan on Trae was solid in the first meeting but he will get his a bit tonight. He is simply too good not to. Obviously I'll be watching total live...

Late night in the Valley I'll be hoping that the Pels come out and get a lead so I can get the Suns discounted. This is also a game I'd love to see a 120+ point first half to get in on an under. We shall see...

Middle game is the one I am looking at... should be ample opportunities in this one to make money... not totally sure of any pregame angles yet but will report back before tip-off in here (live bets go in in-game or b/u live thread). I will say this about props... I get betting props to 'bet' them... but make sure you are getting some bang for your buck. The playoffs seem to bring out a lot of inflation on props, especially for star players.

Back in a bit...

Pels should be better rested that’s for sure. I was lucky with the push on 11 last out…I might be tempted with the 10 here, but worry about the obvious

 

[survive&advance]

Boston bkn reffing will be interesting. Crazy amount of fouls called early in game 1 and I still felt like KD was getting mugged. Gotta assume Boston will continue playing physical with him. Claxton will get more mins than Drummond you’d think. Bkn will be ok if they get good mins from curry and dragic again but I don’t think I can put money down on it

 

[Hulu]

I too think crooklyn wins the series but even after a Celts win in game 1 there's still not a lot of value in that number.

 

[pcbsg_12]

Grizz gonna win comfortably I think. Can’t go down 0-2. MN not experienced. It was close throughout much of game 1. Grizz gonna rebound better. Big line scary though. Gonna look out for a good line live.

 

[KJ]

Grizz gonna win comfortably I think. Can’t go down 0-2. MN not experienced. It was close throughout much of game 1. Grizz gonna rebound better. Big line scary though. Gonna look out for a good line live.

I lean towards blowout more than the other routes but they couldn't choke the line down from 7 in game one to 5 or less without risk management issues. Think if they play 10 times in a vacuum Memphis wins by 10 at least 7 times.

 

[twinkie13]

Grizz gonna win comfortably I think. Can’t go down 0-2. MN not experienced. It was close throughout much of game 1. Grizz gonna rebound better. Big line scary though. Gonna look out for a good line live.

Agree. I won’t have live available, but that would be the move it seems

 

[2daBank]

I too think crooklyn wins the series but even after a Celts win in game 1 there's still not a lot of value in that number.

Im playing that series the way I often play hockey playoffs. Chasing road dog to get split in 1st 4. Then we see after it tied 2-2! Lol

 

[B.A.R.]

Welp, bye bye Bucks -2.5.

Through 2 games they are starting to remind me of every Giannis team sans last year's.

 

[2daBank]

Welp, bye bye Bucks -2.5.

Through 2 games they are starting to remind me of every Giannis team sans last year's.

Crazy thing is they so much better and bulls shouldn’t have much chance I still think bucks could go 4-1 but they won’t bring the intensity every game to do it even tho they should. Guess maybe we shoulda seen it coming with way mucks let bulls back into gm1 when they should have run them out the gym.

 

[survive&advance]

Welp, bye bye Bucks -2.5.

Through 2 games they are starting to remind me of every Giannis team sans last year's.

Gonna lose my shirt on this one ugh

 

[Inspekdah]

Billy D such a good coach… Bucks should be crushing this team. Bulls a year and another piece (including a healthy Ball) away but they’ve dominated basically last 7 quarters.

 

[survive&advance]

Billy D such a good coach… Bucks should be crushing this team. Bulls a year and another piece (including a healthy Ball) away but they’ve dominated basically last 7 quarters.

amazing what happens with garpax gone

 

[emkee]

More a case of the Mucks playing down than Billy D being a great coach.

Something not right with the defending champs.

 

[Inspekdah]

More a case of the Mucks playing down than Billy D being a great coach.

Something not right with the defending champs.

They weren’t a typical champ. If the Warriors and Bulls dynasty teams were rated 99 in 2k, the 2021 Mucks would be a 81.

Billy D always does so much with so little. Solid coach. Mucks coaching terrible.

 

[big_units]

i still count last year as a fluke, as it was more like the nuns giving it away since they are perennial losers themselves. i couldn't classify the fucks as champions.

 

[Inspekdah]

i still count last year as a fluke, as it was more like the nuns giving it away since they are perennial losers themselves. i couldn't classify the fucks as champions.

Yeah Subs collapsed. Mucks should have lost that series to the Nets by 200 points

 

[big_units]

Yeah Subs collapsed. Mucks should have lost that series to the Nets by 200 points

yeah, also a crooklyn collapse after 2-0 lead and blowing the lead in game 7 at home. crooklyn, fucks, and suns...a trio responsible for decades of shining nba loserdom.

 

[emkee]

They weren’t a typical champ. If the Warriors and Bulls dynasty teams were rated 99 in 2k, the 2021 Mucks would be a 81.

Billy D always does so much with so little. Solid coach. Mucks coaching terrible.

 

[survive&advance]

Took bulls ml tonight. Just trying to hedge out of my bucks series bet

 

[Inspekdah]

Dude on the right was an L by 2015.

KD didn’t stick around long enough to build anything. He was there for one year? That bubble roster was a 15 win team plus Chris Paul.

 

[Inspekdah]

Billy will get his ring with Joker and the Bulls after next season.

 

[Noles4life]

I dunk the fact the bulls are. Like 1-15 vs good teams says something bout Billy D coaching IMO… i mean that has to be an all time record

 

[Inspekdah]

I dunk the fact the bulls are. Like 1-15 vs good teams says something bout Billy D coaching IMO… i mean that has to be an all time record

Could argue the other side that they never let their guard down and take care of the games they’re supposed to. It’s a seriously flawed roster but has been ravaged with injuries, too.

 

[Noles4life]

Yea i hear you i never saw Billy D as a great coach maybe he got better but i didnt like what he ran at OKC n his in game adjustment suck but so do 95% of the coaches

 

[B.A.R.]

Well, some good came of last night...

Makes total sense what happened in Chicago..now that bet comes down to tomorrow basically since I can hedge Game 5 possibly. I'm just happy to have a chance.

Obviously brutal loss for Miami, but that happens. Gotta take care of business tomorrow.

Suns did what they should do in that spot. Road playoff games seemingly can spark teams like Phoenix...

 

[B.A.R.]

I haven't been playing much the last several days for a few reasons...

Things are a bit unpredictable..
Been ultra busy in life....

With that being said, my two series bets took on new life after this weekend. Trust me, I had no inclination that Milwaukee would jail sex the Bulls two games running without Khris but my guy @VirginiaCavs and his boy Grayson gave the Bucks some new life over the weekend. Now, the first of those two bets is off the ledger losing the 1.33 but now we have 2.00 to win 3.00 left. Right now, we have a +460/+480 or so ML on the Bulls for Game 5. My options are wide-open. I can guarantee money for this particular game and cover my other bet as well. Obviously, that is not what I want to do but that is an option. Live betting will likely be my my out here as ML's will be available and frankly I could get creative and take the points if I wanted.

We got a few more days till that...

The Miami series is showing why I thought that value was ridiculous. This series should be over as the Heat blew game 3, but that is fine. I expect a dogfight tomorrow night, no doubt. With that being said, hopefully Spo gets the teams attention after seeing the Sixers sleep-walk through a clincher at home tonight. No need for any thoughts of hedging etc yet here. We got 3 bullets to dodge, and two of those are at home.

 

[B.A.R.]

Alright, let us talk about everything else going on in the association...

Out west, we have quite the interesting series playing out in the 1-8 matchup that has seemingly turned since the Booker injury. The Suns were up 67-62 in the 3rd of Game 2 and he got hurt 4-5 mins later and things have gotten wild since. Ingram has been absolutely incredible this series and that I hope we see him on a contender as much as possible moving forward (whether in NOLA or elsewhere). He is built for the playoffs and seemingly has no fear. The Suns bounce back in Game 3 without their star was impressive. They have that capability but without his offense they need to be very tight on defense. We know how Game 4 went and Monty started getting in the ears of the league afterwards, as he should. This is such a huge game. Honestly, I think anything could happen here and 3 scenarios are all at equal play in my mind for how things finish. I have big rooting interest in a healthy Booker and a Suns drive to June, so fingers crossed. We are 1 week into the injury tomorrow, so hopefully he is back by the weekend.

Nice little token win for the Nuggets the other night. This series is still over and has very little chance of going back to the Mountains... good riddance Nuggets...

Memphis and Minnesota is a real wild one. We are seeing young players grow up in different ways here. Both venues have been rocking and I have give Minnesota a lot of credit for pulling themselves off the ground after that Game 3 collapse. Anything can happen here, and I hope we see a Game 7 to be honest.

Utah isn't winning the next two games. Their offense depends on the three too much and this Dallas defense is just too sound. Tonight, they were able to get more 3pt attempts but that was to their detriment. Luka looks great, and this team is gonna make the Warriors work for it the next few weeks. That will be a fun series for purists that love teams that can win with offense OR defense.

 

[B.A.R.]

To the East...Talked about the two series I have investments on earlier...

Obviously, the Celtics became the first team to clinch tonight. They got better and better as this series went on. Now, before the series and even after Game 1 I was convinced this was going 7 games and Brooklyn had a chance. I was wrong, and we'll never know what happens if not for the collapses in the first two games. Game two was especially bothersome, as that basically ended the series and was such a dramatic collapse. I love Durantula, but like many, I have no issue with a bought and paid for team getting what comes to them like that. Boston is a fine team and I am excited to see them vs the Bucks. Those two have great games it seems and some playoff battles in the past.

I'll say it again...Boston cannot afford to play prevent offense like they did tonight as we stretch into May. That WILL cost them a game eventually...

Last, and certainly least...Emkee's Sixers (lol). That was such a poor effort tonight. We know how this goes in the NBA... a big injury and everyone thinks the other team is the play. I should base all my betting on playing ON a big injury. Life would be much simpler, and less of a grind. The other thing tonight is the Raptors played great defense. Philly never adjusted with any tempo. This is expected when you have raspy ass Doc at the helm. He is awful. Game 6 in the dot will not be easy, anything can happen. I'd love to see Jimmy and a Sixer team that does not handle pressure situations all that well face a G7 at a venue where the fans will turn on them if things go bad...

 

[B.A.R.]

I see no value in any series prices or exactas right now...

Obviously, we start tracking elimination game unders (check @BetCrimes1984 thread top of forum). Those went 1-1 tonight...

I see an absolute knuckle fight in T-Dot on Thursday...

Warriors, feels like value live on the under with a higher scoring start...

Same for the Miami game, gotta feel that one out...

 

[Ryno14]

Alright, let us talk about everything else going on in the association...

Out west, we have quite the interesting series playing out in the 1-8 matchup that has seemingly turned since the Booker injury. The Suns were up 67-62 in the 3rd of Game 2 and he got hurt 4-5 mins later and things have gotten wild since. Ingram has been absolutely incredible this series and that I hope we see him on a contender as much as possible moving forward (whether in NOLA or elsewhere). He is built for the playoffs and seemingly has no fear. The Suns bounce back in Game 3 without their star was impressive. They have that capability but without his offense they need to be very tight on defense. We know how Game 4 went and Monty started getting in the ears of the league afterwards, as he should. This is such a huge game. Honestly, I think anything could happen here and 3 scenarios are all at equal play in my mind for how things finish. I have big rooting interest in a healthy Booker and a Suns drive to June, so fingers crossed. We are 1 week into the injury tomorrow, so hopefully he is back by the weekend.

Nice little token win for the Nuggets the other night. This series is still over and has very little chance of going back to the Mountains... good riddance Nuggets...

Memphis and Minnesota is a real wild one. We are seeing young players grow up in different ways here. Both venues have been rocking and I have give Minnesota a lot of credit for pulling themselves off the ground after that Game 3 collapse. Anything can happen here, and I hope we see a Game 7 to be honest.

Utah isn't winning the next two games. Their offense depends on the three too much and this Dallas defense is just too sound. Tonight, they were able to get more 3pt attempts but that was to their detriment. Luka looks great, and this team is gonna make the Warriors work for it the next few weeks. That will be a fun series for purists that love teams that can win with offense OR defense.

Won't it most likely be PHX/Dallas? Pretty sure Warriors play (hopefully) my Grizz

 

[KJ]

Won't it most likely be PHX/Dallas? Pretty sure Warriors play (hopefully) my Grizz

Yeah dubs will play winner of Grizz/Wolves

Think he's referring to the WCF tho

 

[B.A.R.]

Won't it most likely be PHX/Dallas? Pretty sure Warriors play (hopefully) my Grizz

Yes, my bad.

I had an earlier scenario from late-season in my head.

 

[B.A.R.]

Couple series plays to get things started...

Miami Heat Series -400

I'm sorry, this is a ridiculous price. I thought maybe they lowballed it at 600 but this should be 700-750 minimum. Yes, I understand that Miami isn't everyones sexy #1 seed. With that being said, this team is built for the playoffs and should have very little issue with the Hawks, I wrote about it a bit in the discussion thread but 4-2 is about the worst result I see here.

Milwaukee to win in 4 games +225 1.33 to win 3.00
Milwaukee to win in 5 games +150 2.00 to win 3.00

As long as the Bucks take care of business as they should this will net us some profit. You can keep it simply and simply bet the Bucks -2.5 games at -210. But, even with the 4 game win netting 1 unit total, we would be saving 10 cents. As I said in the conference discussion thread, this series shouldn't be too hard for Milwaukee against a Bulls team that is a shadow of itself from early in the season., The champs are here, and should win this series in short fashion.

We got the first one on the books. That number was absurd.

The thing with betting a series favorite like that is you have to be willing to know that an upset will happen here and there. With thay being said, you can be choosy and get easy ones like this in. Over the course of a 7 game series generally the better team emerges. Yes, we'll have series where it seems the wrong team won but that is pretty rare.

Now, we have one more to close out and I am quite skeptical now due to the Lavine news. You all know how I feel about injuries. Beware, I fully expect that Chicago will be in the lead or very tight at halftime. I will follow live and adjust accordingly.

 

[B.A.R.]

Late game tomorrow I'll be looking for a live under in a closeout game... hopefully a fast 1h and even 3rd and get what I want and go pretty heavy.

 

[B.A.R.]

Late game tomorrow I'll be looking for a live under in a closeout game... hopefully a fast 1h and even 3rd and get what I want and go pretty heavy.

I have played plenty of Dubs closeout games in the First round over the years....


2015

52 in 4th but only 86 in 2h

2016

47 in 4th

2017

45 in 4th

2018

46 in a loss to complete sweep in 4th
45 to finish the series in 4th

2019

40 in the 4th