Monday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Monday, July 21, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>951</TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>J Campillo -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>952 </TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>C Volstad -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#666666>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>953</TD><TD width=160>San Diego Padres </TD><TD width=130>J Banks -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>954 </TD><TD width=160>Cincinnati Reds </TD><TD width=130>H Bailey -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>955</TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>Van Benschoten -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>956 </TD><TD width=160>Houston Astros </TD><TD width=130>RU Hernandez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm (ESPN) (TM CH) </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>957</TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>S McClung -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>958 </TD><TD width=160>St Louis Cardinals </TD><TD width=130>J Pineiro -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>8:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>959</TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>E Stults -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>960 </TD><TD width=160>Colorado Rockies </TD><TD width=130>K Wells -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>8:40 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>961</TD><TD width=160>Chicago Cubs </TD><TD width=130>R Harden -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-136</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>962 </TD><TD width=160>Arizona Diamondbacks </TD><TD width=130>R Johnson -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+116</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>963</TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>N Blackburn -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+107</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>964 </TD><TD width=160>New York Yankees </TD><TD width=130>S Ponson -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-127</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>965</TD><TD width=160>Toronto Blue Jays </TD><TD width=130>J Litsch -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>966 </TD><TD width=160>Baltimore Orioles </TD><TD width=130>R Liz -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>967</TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>D Eveland -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>968 </TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>S Kazmir -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>7½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>969</TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>E Hurley -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>970 </TD><TD width=160>Chicago White Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Vazquez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+125</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-160</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>971</TD><TD width=160>Detroit Tigers </TD><TD width=130>Z Miner -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>972 </TD><TD width=160>Kansas City Royals </TD><TD width=130>L Hochevar -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>973</TD><TD width=160>Cleveland Indians </TD><TD width=130>P Byrd -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>974 </TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Angels </TD><TD width=130>E Santana -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>975</TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>J Lester -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>976 </TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>J Washburn -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at Baltimore
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Litsch
R Liz
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at NY Yankees
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>N Blackburn
S Ponson
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Oakland at Tampa Bay
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>D Eveland
S Kazmir
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Detroit at Kansas City
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Z Miner
L Hochevar
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:11 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Texas at Chi. White Sox
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>E Hurley
J Vazquez
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at LA Angels
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>P Byrd
E Santana
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Seattle
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Lester
J Washburn
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Milwaukee at St. Louis
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S McClung
J Pineiro
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Diego at Cincinnati
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Banks
H Bailey
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at Florida
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Campillo
C Volstad
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at Houston
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Benschoten
R Hernandez
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Dodgers at Colorado
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>E Stults
K Wells
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at Arizona
Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>R Harden
R Johnson
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
ESPN TV games have been infused with Fav results recently, especially games with home favs.

The Fav is 9-0 L9 games, 13-3 SU L16 games, 21-6 SU L27 games
Home Favs are 9-0 L9 games, 13-2 SU L15 games, 20-4 SU L24 games

A 78%-to-100% Fav hit rate is not normal (20-4 over 24 games - a 5:1 Fav/Dog ratio - is frankly unbelievable). One would continue to expect a correction to be in the works, but what do I know - maybe ESPN will blindly deliver favs for the rest of its lifespan as a network.


The games on ESPN's schedule
(pitching match-ups where possible based on normal rest in brackets)

Milwaukee @Saint Louis - McClung vs Pineiro
Philadelphia @NY Mets (Moyer vs Maine)
NY Yankees @Boston (Rasner vs Dice-K)
LA Angels @Boston (Lackey vs Buchholz)
 
Last edited:
Pineiro's last start instills that much confidence in you?

or maybe not his last start, but instead his last home start?
 
These starting pitchers point to a wild one - where is the basis to say either team should be a solid fav to win in a wild game? Pineiro is starting to regress to the garbage that Seattle got rid of. His home figures are better only because he's faced all of 1 team with a winning record in a home start (that one team scored 4 ERs off his 5 IP).
Milwaukee has come out the break and notched 9, 8 & 7 run totals against some decent starters, so they have the offensive form to match the Cards own since the break. But the Cards have been conceding a shitload leading to their pen being worked for 14.1 IP since that break, compared to the Brewers pen's 5.1 IP - both these pens suck, but a rest advantage can only help one suck less than the other.
 
Hard to pull the trigger when everyone disagrees with Cards...But I thought Cards had the Home edge....Pitching edge with Piniero at home....Brews only 23-26 away and 16-21 as a dog...Cards are better vs Righies then Brews..Cards won 5 in a row...Cards are scoring well right now last 3 games 11,6,9
 
The only thing I dont like is the whole fade a team coming off a dramatic win theory....Besides this aint Frisco they get to face an actual MLB team
6-4 Cards win :pillow:
 
Last edited:
JD Sports said:
Now what would point to a Milwaukee win here? Cards win this over Mcdung
Click to expand...


How about the terrible play of STL vs one of the worst teams in baseball (SDP) . Not to mention the repeated failures of STL pen closing games . Milw pen is not much better but was asked to do less @ SFG. Put it this way if you consider SD and SFG equal , then MILW went to SF and basically wiped the floor with them while STL needed a bunch of late rallies to pull out wins at home and if I am not mistaken trailed at least 2 or 3 times after 5 innings ....

Worse is they were medicore sized favs vs SD in those games usually -140 or less where as MILW was -150 @ SF in the 1st two games which dictates they would be at LEAST -220 in MILW ..

Game 1 Win 4-3 Franklin allows B2B doubles to start the 9th cut the lead to 1 but gets 3 straight outs . Both teams had 9 hits.

Game 2 Win 11-7 . Trailed 7-6 to start the 7th which they tied it and scored 4 times in teh 8th for the difference.

Game 3 Win 6-5 Trailed 5-0 after 2 innings. Scored 4 in th 4th and 2 in the 6th for the final.

Game 4 Win 9-5 . Trail 3-1 to start the 7th . Get 1 run in the 7th and the Heath Bell again (game 2 culprit allowing 4 runs) allows 3 runs in the 8th inning . Take a 5-3 lead which Izzy blows but they escape the jam . Ends on a walkoff GS .

McClung has been better then Piniero of late . Piniero has 3 of 4 starts where he allowed 10+ hits and McClung is allowing just below .240BAA . McClung will be the ROAD SP for MILW while Dave Bush will be the HOME SP in this rotation slot . So clearly McClung has been effective on the road. Best part is McClung throws hard and is tough on RHB think Pujols-Glaus - Ludwick. McClung has 4 scoreless innings of relief vs STL and Piniero has 2 solid career starts vs Milw but he seems to do best as a big dog which he was @ Milw vs Sheets (+170) .

Simply put just see MILW as the better team here at the moment . Recent history shows MILW is 7-4 Last 11 meetings with Villanueva losing twice , Bush on the road and Sheets .

Think worst case this game should PK-105 or -110 outside of world of Pinnacle and Matchbook . Really though should be MILW -115/-120 IMO :cheers:

Also Prince 11 career Hrs vs MILW in 140Abs and Braun 413 31-75 7Hrs 20 RBI vs STL pitching .....

. Always subject to change my opinion once I see the lineups though......:shake:
 
Seabass said:
Never underestimate a team who thinks they can contend all of a sudden...
Click to expand...

For whatever it's worth, maybe nothing, I believe that the Brewers players will also be jazzed up by the club making yet another move to try to help get them to the postseason by adding veteran Ray Durham........
 
Like the Texas-Chicago over. We got two of the best hitting teams in the league, facing a couple of pretty average pitchers.

Hoping for a good old fashion slugfest.
 
I like Florida. Not crazy go out and hammer your books into it, but I've got a normal sized bet on them. Good RHP mashers and Atlanta has been struggling...pretty much all year.

Other bets I like are the Yankees and Red Sox, both good teams at a low price, and the Tigers who are a slight dog to the Royals despite being the better team. No real rocket science here. In the 2nd half of the season I like backing good teams that are winning (ok, the Red Sox aren't winning...but they are excused due to the LH splits of both teams tmw)...
 
Actually like ATL with Campillo on the hill as his road starts have been solid . Volstad talented but tough to know what to expect at this point . Think ATL comes out pissed after Reyes gave them no chance of winning in a game they seemed to really want . FLA got the lucky win vs Philly as Phillies stranded 2 billion runners and Marlins hit 2 solo Hrs (had Philly ML & Marlins +1.5 RL nearly pulled it off) .

One had to lay in the 200 range past 2 days to back ATL and now can grab them at + money ....dont see how home field being worth nearly that much despite the home-away splits involved....

So thinking about ATL ...

Dont know about Boston either . Terrible history out West in general , losers of 11 of 14 @ Seattle , Lester struggled 2 career starts @ Seattle, Mariners facing 4th straight LHP and had 11 hits today off Lee . Not saying I like SEA but just not sure I like Boston at near -140 .....probably an over though....

KC is 6-0 vs DET this year and DET is I think 12-3 away vs LHSP so do the math for RHP ......tough one though ...KC should have lost today bt Guillen uncorked one throw out his ass from what I read....

Yanks v Twins could be a good over play. Yanks now 14-4 at home allowing 3 runs or less and 15-1-1 under in those games since Arod returned. Whats the chances Twins score 3 or less ? Ponson nice track record vs Minny but 3rd start in 2008 vs him , off a 1-0 loss (like to play overs next game) , and Yanks stacked with LH's.......

Rangers havent hit a lick though since the AS break and who knows about the WSox .....no idea here ...

GL tmrw . Sleep time....
 
Ervin has horrid numbers v Cleveland career wise but he handled them well this season, and given the fact the Indians are not even a shadow of what they were in the past few seasons, I think the Halos roll here, looking at RL. Byrd is an absolute gas can and I'm not worried about a letdown following a sweep of the Sox here, the Angels are mashing the ball right now.

Last time Byrd faced LAA he allowed 4 homers.
 
Id be careful about Florida tonight. I saw a quote from Tex talking about how embarrassing it was to get their asses handed to them by the Nats at home this weekend. They could be pretty amped up for this one...
 
Greencastle said:
Like the Texas-Chicago over. We got two of the best hitting teams in the league, facing a couple of pretty average pitchers.

Hoping for a good old fashion slugfest.
Click to expand...

But the totals for Tex-Chi were set in the 10-10.5 range, McClung v Pineiro opened at 9.5 and has been pounded to 9, and I am trying to figure out what I am missing. SN, care to elaborate on your initial lean on the full game under?
 
i've made a little study and just noticed how Petco park is a pitcher paradise.
This season, the average number for totals posted by oddsmakers at home are 7,55 and 8,75 on the road.
so , oddsmakers are well aware that SD stadium is an 'under stadium'.
But the most incredible despite this "small adjustment is that SD is 23-22 (O/U)on the road whereas at home SD is only 20-32 for the over.
the truth is really simple to understand: Don't be afraid to bet the under 7 or 7,5for SD at home because most of the time it's the play
 
edou1x said:
i've made a little study and just noticed how Petco park is a pitcher paradise.
This season, the average number for totals posted by oddsmakers at home are 7,55 and 8,75 on the road.
so , oddsmakers are well aware that SD stadium is an 'under stadium'.
But the most incredible despite this "small adjustment is that SD is 23-22 (O/U)on the road whereas at home SD is only 20-32 for the over.
the truth is really simple to understand: Don't be afraid to bet the under 7 or 7,5for SD at home because most of the time it's the play
Click to expand...

wouldve never known :10_5_137:



sorry, couldnt resist
 
Is no one at all interested in Oakland?

Kazmir has been far from impressive over the last 2 months or so and TB struggles vs LHP. Oak does as well, especially on the road but I think the price is just off
 
Id be more interested in the over, Eveland is fade material the rest of the season for me, but not here at this price and Kazmir on odd rest after pitching in the AS game...
 
whats up fellas. ive got a few plays tonight.

mil @ stl : this is an evenly matched game if i;ve ever seen one. both teams are on the upswing and neither team has lost since the break. milky has been shit as a small road dog this year and even more so the past couple years. ill gladly take an excellent home team against a avg/shit road team w/ a better starting pitcher imo, better relief, and a more efficient lineup. milky kinda lives and dies by the long ball and i dont think busch/pineiro will be giving up many if any. nice price too. i saw SN was contemplating a milky play and i hope it isn't part of his "something is off"/ fade move. i've been a big fan of fading mcclung and i was thinking an over play because both teams have pretty hot bats but ill lay off w/ this big number and piniero's ability to dominate teams.

sd @ cin: ill take the over 9.5 here. great hitter park. homer b is a consistent gas can and i was thinking of taking the value SD but they are a shit team and an even shittier road team and banks is on the huge decline it appears. cincy has the bats working well enough and im hoping sandy can get enough to put it over the total. i wouldnt be surprised to see a SD win knowing what bailey is capable of in great american park. SD has put up monster numbers in cincy in the past seeing this pitcher should relieve their run scoring woes at least for one day. who would lay this much juice w/ homer??

min @ nyy : ill be on the yanks and under. sid was dealing last time and now he gets to face his former team who he struggled w/ when he was on their team but dominates when he faces them. sid gets great run support and yanks are pretty damn hot. a big bonus would be if morneau is out because he is fucking hot. if so minny offense would be horrible w/o cuddyer already and gomez is cold as ice, mauer can't do it by himself, etc. blackburn is good but not nearly as good on the road and the bullpen is the worst on the road. (6.11 ERA on the YEAR) hopefully yanks don't put up that double digit tonight.

tor @ bal : im taking jays and ov 9.5 jays arent a high scoring team by any means but books throw out 10 knowing radhames might not be ready for the big leagues yet. litsch certainly hasn't been dominant but he can get the job done. jays put up 9 runs last night and they got contributions from almost everyone so im thinking they carry some momentum into this series. balty can put up runs especially at home but i think jays get the best of em here in a pretty high scoring game in a homer friendly camden yard.

oak @ tb : im taking the big time value and under 7.5 in this one. TB is cold and suck against lefties and they will see a good one tonight in dana. oak is a damn solid road team and the reason for the ridiculous price is because of TB home record along w/ kazmir's dope numbers at home. ive seen this before and so had SN. i bet people everywhere have kazmir's home numbers memorized and that is enough for them to make a bet. well, ill take the big ass dog in a low scoring game which could go either way imo. oakland has some solid numbers against TB relievers which could be the deciding factor. hopefully ellis can get something going tonight.

GL everybody.
 
eveland and kazmir haven't been good at all on long rest but kazmir has some REALLY ugly numbers. really bad..
 
guys what kidn of pitcher is campillo i have never seen him pitch.. sinker ball pitcher, power or finese pitcher?
 
JD, i was trying to find an angle to make me bet florida. volstad is a local boy so im sure his first start will be either tremendous or down right horrible. im sure he will have a lot of family in attendance. campillo is solid, especially on the road and teixera is one hot mother fucker but i simply could not back atlanta on the road against anyone. especially a contending solid team in florida. it looks like books are baiting florida money so ill just watch that game. if hanley doesnt play and florida commits their usual 1-2 errors then atlanta could easily win. but it's a no bet in my book. atlanta as road chalk... WHOA nelly
 
more power than finesse. if he tests uggla w/ that heater again he will turn it around. :popcorn:
 
I played Toronto, Brewers and Detroit. Regarding the Brewer- Cardinal game I would say take a 20 game view of the teams. The Brewers on the road went 12-8. Most of those wins were vs reasonable teams and reasonable pitchers so I give them real credit. The Carinals are 10-10 last 20 at home. Another way of saying that is before playing the Padres they were 6-10. Sorry simply can not give them any credit for 3 of the Padre wins. See the Brewers as the better team that knows they have to chop down the Cardinals to win the division or Wild Card. Tony is having to win with almost no pitching. That works well until you play a real team.
 
those are very valid points tuck. personally, i believe it was good pitching by no name guys who carried STL in the first half. along w/ the hitting doing JUST enough to win. piniero has pitched VERY well twice against the brewers and both were in milwaukee where the brew crew are tough to beat so that is sure saying something. joel doesnt give up the long ball and ive seen him absolutely dominate some of the best teams in the game. GL to you though.
 
jimbo1227 said:
it looks like books are baiting florida money
Click to expand...

Respectfully disagree. Why would Chris Volstad be an even bet or favored over anyone, but especially Campillo (I currently have it at -111/+101)? I think this line really smells fishy and is begging for Brave money.
 
thats cool counselor. BUT...
1. braves are the worst road team in the league so they can't be favored.
2. volstad was one out away from a shutout in his first career start and thats all people know about him. he could easily be -130 as dominant he was.
 
the public is all over the unproven youngster. who could be nervous in his first home start?? i like him tonight, btw, but im not betting it.
 
for anyone that cares about line movement, the only game on the board that has a "reverse line move" is the rangers-chisox

(per SI) 67 % is on the Chisox ML but the line has moved down from -164 to -158

the O's also moved from -113 to -109, but just 51% are on baltimore ml so im not sure id consider it a reverse.
 
thanks junky, but i wouldnt classify either of those as reverse line movement. if a line moves 15-20 cents that catches my attention.
 
word. i agree its not that significant of a move, but its strange cuz its the only one on the board that reversed at all. usually there are a 2 or 3 (if not more) per day.
if i play texas im thinkin 1st 5. no point in getting involved with the bullpens
 
hmmm...looks like there might be a pitching change for the rangers.

the line is off the board on bookmaker, and Feldman is listed
 
anyway, here is my take on this chicago sox game. i love getting in depth with this shit. the series vs. KC was fucking heart breaking. sox fucking own KC and we lost 2 of 3 to those chumps in bad fashion as well. game 2 we could only manage 2 hits at home? yesterday we pumped out 15 hits in a slug fest but left 10 MOB and gave up 2 runs in the 8th i believe to lose it by 1. the sox are still the team to beat in the central without a fucking doubt. sox are excellent at home. vazquez is a guy i have on my fantasy and the city is pretty much calling on him to step the fuck up and be the ace again. (i'm really pist off at that mother fucker) i've always liked the guy but if he fucks up bad tonight i will greatly dislike this guy. one VERY interesting trend for vazquez in his last 10 starts at least is that when he pitches shitty the sox win & it's over (cuz of run support) and when he pitches well he loses & it's under (cuz of run support).
public is all over sox and over (82% on the over). i am going to buck the trend tonight and predict javy gets back on track w/ a fucking gem tonight and gets the win. texas only managed a measly 11 hits in their three game series w/ minny. (11-91 pencils out to .121 avg.) they only scored three runs and it was on two swings of the bat so they had absolutely nothing going on. hurley is somewhat underrated and i was thinking he was going to be at least decent enough to keep it under. i would say the same about feldman but i haven't done as much research on him but if i remember correctly SN said he was serviceable on the road. im am going to pound the sox and under tonight no matter the texas pitcher.
 
Haven't gotten deep in the card or even read the whole thread, but thinking Boston/Seattle OVER.

Both hit lefties real well....feeling Boston will break out w/ some offense after their pathetic weekend.

Thoughts?
 
onto the other chicago game. sure randy is 12-0 against the chubs but he hasn't faced them since his prime and let me tell you right now randy is over the hill and he sucks, especially at home. people say payback time for the sweep in chicago. FUCK THAT. chicago fucking kills lefties. 22-8 against the NL west. compared to 7-13 for arizona vs. the NL central. chicago was 6-10 w/ RISP yesterday after going 1-15 during their three day losing streak. rich harden is fucking gangster and will shut down this fucking horse shit team. in the big picture cubs are great and zona sucks (it has nothing to do w/ the absolutely ridiculous meltdown by lyon yesterday) noone on zona except for hudson (2-8) has seen harden and you can bet your bottom dollar richy boy will be ringing up those fucking snakes all night long. this line is cheap because i think cubs would win this 7-9 times out of 10. which is a shitty way of looking at it but vegaskyle thinks like that. i like the cubs alot more than the total but i think ill play the under and hope the cubs don't put up 5-7 runs because i know harden will shut down those dumb fucks. sorry for my language but im attimate about this. cubs and under for me.
 
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