Monday MLB Discussion

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD width=225>Monday, July 07, 2008</TD><!-- <td width=80 bgcolor=#FFFFFF>GamePeriod<td> <td width=80 align=center>1stPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>2ndPeriod</td> <td width=80 align=center>3rdPeriod</td> <td width=55> </td> </tr>--><TR bgColor=#666666><TD align=middle colSpan=8>Line Changes made within the last 15 Minutes will have a Grey background.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>901</TD><TD width=160>Houston Astros </TD><TD width=130>RU Hernandez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>902 </TD><TD width=160>Pittsburgh Pirates </TD><TD width=130>P Dumatrait -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>903</TD><TD width=160>New York Mets </TD><TD width=130>P Martinez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>904 </TD><TD width=160>Philadelphia Phillies </TD><TD width=130>A Eaton -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>905</TD><TD width=160>Colorado Rockies </TD><TD width=130>U Jimenez -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-180</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>906 </TD><TD width=160>Milwaukee Brewers </TD><TD width=130>S McClung -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+160</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>907</TD><TD width=160>Florida Marlins </TD><TD width=130>R Nolasco -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-200</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+105</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>908 </TD><TD width=160>San Diego Padres </TD><TD width=130>G Maddux -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+170</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-125</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:10 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>909</TD><TD width=160>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD width=130>J Campillo -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-185</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-120</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+110</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>910 </TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Dodgers </TD><TD width=130>H Kuroda -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>7½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+100</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>11:40 am </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>911</TD><TD width=160>Kansas City Royals </TD><TD width=130>G Meche -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+155</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>912 </TD><TD width=160>Tampa Bay Rays </TD><TD width=130>M Garza -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-175</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>6:05 pm (ESPN) </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>913</TD><TD width=160>Minnesota Twins </TD><TD width=130>S Baker -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+150</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>914 </TD><TD width=160>Boston Red Sox </TD><TD width=130>D Matsuzaka -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>9</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-170</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>7:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>915</TD><TD width=160>Los Angeles Angels </TD><TD width=130>E Santana -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½ </TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+115</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>10</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-105</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-140</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>916 </TD><TD width=160>Texas Rangers </TD><TD width=130>L Mendoza -R</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-135</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-115</TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+120</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width=215 colSpan=2>9:05 pm </TD><TD width=130>Pitchers</TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>RunLine </TD><TD width=80 colSpan=2>Total </TD><TD width=80>MoneyLn </TD><TD width=40></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=625 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>917</TD><TD width=160>Seattle Mariners </TD><TD width=130>J Washburn -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-165</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>+130</TD><TD width=40></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD align=middle width=55>918 </TD><TD width=160>Oakland Athletics </TD><TD width=130>D Eveland -L</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>-1½</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>+145</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000>8</TD><TD width=40 bgColor=#000000></TD><TD width=80 bgColor=#000000>-150</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>12:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Umpire: Tim Timmons

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>G Meche
M Garza
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at Boston
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>S Baker
D Matsuzaka
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Angels at Texas
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>E Santana
L Mendoza
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Oakland
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Washburn
D Eveland
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Houston at Pittsburgh
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>R Hernandez
P Dumatrait
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Mets at Philadelphia
Umpire: Dale Scott

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>P Martinez
A Eaton
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Colorado at Milwaukee
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>U Jimenez
S McClung
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at San Diego
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>R Nolasco
G Maddux
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Umpire: N/A

</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>J Campillo
H Kuroda
Bullpen Availability

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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That was my line. I understand they are weaker vs righthanders but this is silly. Based on situation and history this could easily have been minus 170.
 
Pedro has been garbage on the road since he came back -

WHIP 1.82, ERA 8.37, O/U 3-1-1, 12.20 runs/game, Mets 1-4 SU


Eaton's last 3 starts vs the Mutts
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" bgColor=black border=0><TBODY><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ecece4; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>DATE</TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD>OPP</TD><TD></TD><TD colSpan=2>TOTAL</TD><TD>SCORE</TD><TD>POR</TD><TD>TM</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>WHIP</TD><TD>IP</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>9/16/07</TD><TD></TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>NY Mets</TD><TD></TD><TD>9.5</TD><TD>O</TD><TD>10-6</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>7.73</TD><TD>1.93</TD><TD>4.2</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>4/10/08</TD><TD></TD><TD>A</TD><TD align=left>NY Mets</TD><TD></TD><TD>9.0</TD><TD>U</TD><TD>3-4</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>4.50</TD><TD>1.17</TD><TD>6.0</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>5</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; TEXT-ALIGN: center"><TD>4/20/08</TD><TD></TD><TD>H</TD><TD align=left>NY Mets</TD><TD></TD><TD>10.0</TD><TD>U</TD><TD>5-4</TD><TD>-</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>7.20</TD><TD>1.40</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD><TD align=left></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
WHIP 1.47, ERA 6.32

Eaton's last 5 starts - WHIP 1.86, ERA 5.16


...pens being used up as I type (into the 12th inning), hopefully Philly loses.
 
May wanna look at LAD and PITT both -130 as this marathon in ATL creeps toward the bottom of the 16th and 9PM EST. Wonder what time ATL gets into SoCal.....3-4 AM? Pen probably figures to be gassed...
 
Two bets catching my interest, doesn't mean I play them though, just discussing for now.

Ervin Santana is obviously not a road fade any more this season, but Texas hits him big time.

44 for 128, .352 BAA

Texas sending out a reliever, not sure what to think here, the Angels are a hit or miss team, but I do think there is value in playing Texas at this price. Since I don't know squat about Mendoza, and his ERA is 9.64 in last 3 games, I'll skip it for now, over is a possible play.

* Over is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Santanas last 11 starts vs. TEX.

BUT

* Under is 21-7-2 in LAA last 30 road games.
* Under is 45-22-5 in LAA last 72 overall.

Still, we knew that, LAA is a small ball, underrish team. But against Mendoza, in a hitters park?


Second lean: Seattle.

I've learned this season to throw one indicator out the window. You know that "rule" that says "bet against a team that just had a long, tiring extra inning game the night before"?

yeah, throw that out the window right now. I've tried. It seems logical, but it doesn't work, at least not this season.

I don't have the exact numbers but I'm sure the W/L ratio is actually in favor of those 'supposedly tired teams', and let me note, REGARDLESS of whether they win or lose, they torched me big time.

Not any more.

Washburn is not the man to trust:

* SEA are 2-6 in Washburns last 8 Mon. starts.
* SEA are 7-20 in Washburns last 27 starts on grass.
* SEA are 4-10 in Washburns last 14 starts.


However, Seattle still 9-4 in last 13 games since McLaren got the boot, and they seem to own Oaktown.

* SEA are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Oakland.
* SEA are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.


Furthermore, Oaktown almost climbed back up in Chicago on Sunday, but they're missing Bobby Crosby, Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez.

I did some schedule research.

A similar situation occurred earlier this season.

Mon, Apr 14 @ White Sox W 2-1 9-5 Smith (1-0) Buehrle (1-1) Street (4)
Tue, Apr 15 @ White Sox L 4-1 9-6 Danks (1-1) Eveland (1-1) Jenks (5)
Wed, Apr 16 Seattle L 4-2 9-7 Hernandez (2-0) Blanton (1-3)
Thu, Apr 17 Seattle L 8-1 9-8 Silva (3-0) DiNardo (1-1)
Click to expand...

Danks pitched in game 2 of the series (they only played two games vs CWS), beating them 4:1. Ok they had Blanton and SEA had Felix on the mound, but look who beat them the day after, SILVA.

Basically they lost two straight before bouncing back again. Coincidentally, they had a nice streak going on before that, they had a 7-1 streak then, which started to fade when they got back home.

The A's are back from a 7 game road trip.


This season, in the first game off a road trip of 5 or more games, the A's are 1-3, even though they were favorites in 3 out of those 4 games.


The only win was the one against Florida, in extra innings (11).

Now, I have no problem with Oaktown being favored here, I have a problem with Dana Eveland and the DEPLETED A's squad laying this much chalk.

I know it's Washburn but Seattle has won some games lately, they almost beat the Tigers on Sunday (lost in the 15th inning, 2:1), and at this price, I'm willing to take a stab.


Any thoughts are welcome. :shake:
 
Looking at this game now,

Dodgers v Braves

Yeah I know I said I won't fade teams off extra inning games. So I won't fade them FOR THAT REASONS. Atlanta won in 17th inning on Sunday.

Atlanta still 12-29 on the road.

Dodgers, no matter how much they suck, and the reason they suck is probably in the absences of Pierre, Furcal and Andruw Jones, are only HALF A GAME away from divisional lead. Arizona started the season 21-7 but are now struggling to stay a .500 team.

Dodgers 5-1 in last 6.

Dodgers sending out Kuroda, 2.95 ERA in last 3 games.

ATL beat Kuroda (in Atlanta) with Jurrjens on the mound, this season, 6:1. Would think Campillo has slowly regressed since his first starts as teams start to figure him out.


Code: 
 Last 10 | Season
Date 	Opp 	S/R 	Res 	Scr 	M/L 	O/U 	IP 	H 	R 	ER 	SO 	BB 	HR 	PIT 	P/IP 	G/F
7/2/2008 	PHI 	S 	L 	3-7 	L -139 	O 9.5 	5.0 	8 	5 	5 	0 	2 	2 	86 	17.2 	0.75
6/25/2008 	MIL 	S 	W 	4-2 	W -140 	U 9 	7.0 	4 	2 	2 	6 	0 	0 	88 	12.6 	0.67
6/20/2008 	SEA 	S 	L 	2-10 	L -128 	O 8.5 	6.1 	8 	4 	4 	2 	3 	0 	99 	15.6 	1.00
6/15/2008 	@ LAA 	S 	L 	0-2 	L 136 	U 9 	8.0 	7 	2 	2 	7 	0 	1 	100 	12.5 	2.20
6/12/2008 	@ CHC 	R 	H 	2-3 	L 121 	U 9.5 	0.1 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	1 	3.0 	0.00
6/8/2008 	PHI 	S 	ND 	3-6 	L -126 	U 10 	5.1 	7 	3 	3 	2 	3 	0 	105 	19.7 	0.62
6/3/2008 	FLA 	S 	ND 	5-4 	W -176 	P 9 	4.0 	6 	4 	4 	3 	1 	2 	80 	20.0 	2.00
5/29/2008 	@ MIL 	S 	W 	8-1 	W -102 	U 9.5 	5.0 	4 	1 	1 	6 	0 	1 	73 	14.6 	1.25
5/24/2008 	ARI 	S 	ND 	3-1 	W -112 	U 9 	4.0 	2 	0 	0 	3 	0 	0 	59 	14.8 	0.50
5/20/2008 	NYM 	S 	W 	6-2 	W -117 	U 10 	6.0 	3 	0 	0 	7 	0 	0 	78 	13.0 	1.00


Dodgers at nearly a pick 'em here.
 
I don't see any reasons for TB not to kill off KC in style. The only caveat emptor here could be possible rest for some of the players, but even then, I don't think Meche does the job tomorrow. He just got knocked around by Baltimore, and KC is regressing again after that monster run.

They are now 2-6 in last 8 games and TB winners of 7 straight, also probably looking to kill them off to keep momentum going and the Sox are always dangerous as far as divisional lead is concerned. Garza should be enough for that lineup.

I love dogs but not this one.
 
TB still undervalued imo......they should be a 2 to 1 favorite to win at Tropicana vs just about anybody right now and the Royals not gonna win a game as this Ray time is hitting on all cylinders at this point. Garza throwing great and think they will continue to take care of business.
 
Minnesota this season

14-4 SU in interleague play
8-1 SU at home
6-3 SU on the road

20-12 SU vs AL teams .500 or less
13-6 SU at home
7-6 SU on the road

16-22 SU vs AL teams .501 or better
12-11 SU at home
4-11 SU on the road ......................... hello, Boston

<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
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One study in extremes recently has been Seattle on "defense" - in their last 22 games they've...

conceded 0-2 runs 11 times ... 9-2 SU, O/U 3-7-1
conceded 3-4 runs 1 time ...... 1-0 SU, O/U 1-0
conceded. 5+ runs 10 times ... 1-9 SU, O/U 6-3-1

So in trying to consider the outcome of their games in recent times, it's not really been about their offense vs the opposition starter at all - it's simply boiled down to the opposing team's offense vs their starter.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Yet another study in extremes, the Mets last 17 games of all-or-nothing offense in the normal 9 regulation inns -

7, 1, 3, 2, 0, 8, 15, 0, 2, 3, 1, 7, 7 & 11, 2, 9 & 2 run totals.

10 totals of 0-3 runs.
_0 totals of 4-6 runs.
_7 totals of 7+ runs.


Mets hitting .303 their last 10 vs righties
+ Eaton sporting a shiny 4.77 home ERA
= which most likely grouping will the Mutts offensive output equate to?
 
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Like these figures...


Recent Trends
<table class="sdi-data-wide" bgcolor="#999999" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr> <td class="sdi-datahead-sub-nb" valign="top" width="29%">Atlanta:</td> <td class="sdi-datacell">
  • Under is 37-15-1 in ATL last 53 road games.
  • Under is 47-21-3 in ATL last 71 on grass.
  • Under is 49-22-3 in ATL last 74 overall.
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="sdi-datahead-sub-nb" valign="top" width="29%">LA Dodgers:</td> <td class="sdi-datacell">
  • Under is 11-2 in LA last 13 overall.
  • Under is 11-2 in LA last 13 on grass.
  • Under is 16-5 in LA last 21 home games.
</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
ESPN TV games have been infused with Fav results recently, especially games with home favs.

The Fav is 9-3 SU last 12 games, 17-6 SU last 23 games
Home Favs are 9-2 SU last 11 games, 16-4 SU last 20 games

A 74-82% Fav hit rate is not normal. A correction is coming.

The games on ESPN's schedule (projected pitching match-ups based on normal rest in brackets)

Minnesota @Boston (Baker vs Dice-K)
Saint Louis @Philadelphia (Boggs vs Happ)
Colorado @Mets (Redman vs Pelfrey)


On a matter of statistical principle, I would not play any of the 3 listed Favs coming up. I'd be suprised if the Dog failed to win 2 of 3.
 
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Under is 37-15-1 in ATL last 53 road games

Under is 30-10-1 their last 41 road games, even more telling.



and ATL is 21-2-2 to Under off their last 25 Over results.

They went Over vs Houston today.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
ESPN TV games have been infused with Fav results recently, especially games with home favs.

The Fav is 9-3 SU last 11 games, 17-6 SU last 22 games
Home Favs are 9-2 SU last 10 games, 16-4 SU last 19 games

A 74-82% Fav hit rate is not normal. A correction is coming.

The games on ESPN's schedule (projected pitching match-ups based on normal rest in brackets)

Minnesota @Boston (Baker vs Dice-K)
Saint Louis @Philadelphia (Boggs vs Happ)
Colorado @Mets (Redman vs Pelfrey)
Click to expand...
:cheers:
 
Great posts gents .

Atl be cautious of unders remember as they played w/o Kotsay for an extended period , Chipper for a good week or so , Escobar banged up at times , they lost Matt Diaz long ago , Francouer so bad he got sent down . Having some healthy players could be huge as Infante has been solid since his return . They had no role players to plug in during those absences.

Also tend to agree with the extra innings thoughts . Tough to fade teams that lost them IMO and probably best to fade in game 2 if they travel.
 
I am starting to like the scrappy Twinkies agianst Dice-K and the Bo Sox. Minny yet to lose in the month of July and are 18-3 in their last 21 games. This team really relies on speed at the top and bottom of their order which could cause a lot of trouble for Dice-K who tends to walk a lot of guys and is always pitching out of the stretch. Baker since his return from the DL in June hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any outing and will definately think the Twins ml is great value tomorrow night.
 
Kmacc - I'll have live betting for that one, and I'll def. be looking at the Twins in-game. That Dog impulse for ESPN games expressed itself on the rl toinight, a ml expression can't be far behind. Thats obviously outside the normal game stat considerations.
 
Don't know about anybody else, but nothing really catches my eye. Although I like Florida +.
 
AL Thoughts :

- Probably be on KC +1.5 RL and under 8 . If this closes above 180 know this TB is 22-0 last 3 years as home chalk of bewteen 150 to 175 including 14-0 this season. We are now outside that range as I see -180. Anyway 4 game sweeps are tough . TB travels to NYY afterwards as well and seems like with 2 good SP a good bet to go under 8 runs. KC is 16-16 in day games. Meche is solid in day games and very good last 2 trips to TB . Garza has been tough at home .

- Agree with KMac that Twins look tempting. DiceK on normal rest has always had command issues. His 1st start after rehab was actually normal resy from his last ninor league start . Last time out 5 walks in 5 innings . Twins great numbers vs RHSP .

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg4 align=left><TD>Category</TD><TD>W</TD><TD>L</TD><TD>ERA</TD><TD>G</TD><TD>GS</TD><TD>CG</TD><TD>SHO</TD><TD>SV</TD><TD>SVO</TD><TD>INN</TD><TD>H</TD><TD>R</TD><TD>ER</TD><TD>HR</TD><TD>HBP</TD><TD>BB</TD><TD>IBB</TD><TD>SO</TD><TD>SB</TD><TD>CS</TD><TD>PK</TD><TD>BK</TD><TD>WP</TD><TD>AVG</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3.89</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>37.0</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>16</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>30</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>28</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>.217</TD></TR><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2.18</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>33.0</TD><TD align=right>23</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>31</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>.193</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>5.29</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>81.2</TD><TD align=right>85</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>48</TD><TD align=right>10</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>74</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.268</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>5</TD><TD align=right>3.96</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>18</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>116.0</TD><TD align=right>100</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>51</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>52</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>117</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>.230</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Really the STL start as I said was normal rest not extended . So 1 inn 6h 7 run 3bb 1k 1hr should be subtracted from extended and added to normal rest for his 2008 numbers . They use his last Ml start which makes sense but we know he pitched that Monday in AAA and followed up on Saturday . So really he has allowed 1 earned run in 32 innings on 5 extended starts rest . With 38 inn 36H 23 er 33bb 29K on normal !

So looking at Twins and over . Boston hasnt hit much and returns home from a 3-7 trip beating Runelyvs hernandez and Darrell Rasner in 2 of them ! Twins have a better record in night games and vs RHSP.

- Seattle and under . Washburn pitching well lately 8 runs last 31 .1 innings . He threw a CG shutout @ Oak lasy year . Also great career numbers @ Oak for him 3.60 ERA and .234 BAA and its the place he has pitched most on the road at . SEA won 4 of 5 vs LHSP dropping the 2-1 game today . There pen is probably taxed though but has been excellent past 2 months . Eveland has about a 200 BAA on normal rest and great ERA at home. Oak struggles vs LHSP as well looks like SEA best chance to win a game this series.

- Texas and over ? Over seems to easy off an 11-10 game and Mendozas last start being 18-6 game. Mendoza is death on RH but LH another story . Santana struggles on extra rest ...

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg3 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2.31</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>7</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>50.2</TD><TD align=right>33</TD><TD align=right>14</TD><TD align=right>13</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>11</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>47</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>3</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>.185</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=15><TD align=left>> 5 Days Rest</TD><TD align=right>4</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>4.14</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>9</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>58.2</TD><TD align=right>59</TD><TD align=right>28</TD><TD align=right>27</TD><TD align=right>6</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>17</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>56</TD><TD align=right>8</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>0</TD><TD align=right>1</TD><TD align=right>2</TD><TD align=right>.257</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:cheers:
 
How about the Twinkies how come nobody is talking about them, maybe because the feel good story Tampa Bay is stealing all the headlines but Minny has been just as good of late. Maybe thats a good thing for us though maybe we should meet the Twins....

Carlos Gomez is a real threat at the top of that order who has extra base power, can steal a base and really relys on his speed to put pressure on opposing defenses. He is solid in CF and can be the spark plug the offense needs to put things in motion. Behind him you have Alexi Casilla, most people don't realize how good this guy really is. Think of a young Luis Castillo when he was hitting for average and doing the little things to move runners along. Casilla is currently on a 13 game hitting streak and this is his 2nd streak of this length already this season. The next two guys are household names, Mauer is doing what Joe Mauer does which is spray the ball to all fields and consistently find his way on base. Hitting at a .325 clip in front of arguably one of the best LH'ed bats in the AL in Morneau. He has his average up to .310
"Jul 5 1B Justin Morneau went 2 for 3 with two runs scored, two doubles and two RBI Friday night. He's now batting .367 with two homers, seven doubles and 21 RBI since June 9, a span of 23 games." He is really heating up.
Monroe and Kubel platoon in the DH position and provide a little protection for Morneau. Behind them is Delmon Young who is quietly putting together a very nice season in which he isn't hitting the HR's that most thought he would get but has really been seeing the ball well and has raised his average 25 points from .264 to .289 going into today since the beginning of June. Harris, Punto and Span have a tremendous amout of speed and ability to find there ways on base from the bottom part of the lineup. You will take .250, .289 and .312 averages from your 7-9 hitters. These small market clubs are really making baseball interesting this year and don't expect them to fade down the stretch because they are built on solid defense, exceptional bullpens, quality starting pitching and guys who put the ball in play and put pressure on the Defense.

So I will be on the Twins ML tomorrow and maybe the whole series as they should be dogs every game in Boston.
Gm 1: Baker vs Dice-K
Gm 2: Blackburn vs Lester
Gm 3: Hernandez vs Beckett
 
Twins have good history at the site and Baker plays well on the road. Boston is 6-4 last 10 so their home edge has to be lowered. Disuke is still 15-5 last 20 at home and has won 9 of his last 10 so some study is warranted here.
KC of course has already been swept twice in 4 game road series so I expect they will be swept again although Meche has played well with the home ump but that is the only plus I see for them. Likely to play Phillie. If I play Seattle it will likely be a first half bet considering their pen situation but that still needs a look.
Would not agree Ervin has a problem on 5 days rest. This season 1 bad start on 5 days at Tampa and 3 at Texas, Detroit and Phillie where he went 3-0 going 23.1 innings giving up 7 runs looks fine to me. The Tampa game was also a day game where he is weaker.
Actually Sportsnut seeems to be saying he was weaker on 6 days I guess but that is not true this season or career and is not relevant anyway. Today will be the 7th and his last game was on the first so he is operating on 5 days rest. I am not sure what he is saying here.
 
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KC and Meche are now +174................I think I am going to bite............Who the hell is Garza to be -184...The Rays are playing great and are a great story but they are overvalued...........Plus, their bags are packed for Yankee stadium and that has to be a distraction on getaway day..............Throw out Meche's last start and he has really turned it around 3-0 and 6 ER over 26 IP.....
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
KC and Meche are now +174................I think I am going to bite............Who the hell is Garza to be -184...The Rays are playing great and are a great story but they are overvalued...........
Click to expand...

Garza is 5-1 in his last 6 @ home, plus TB has won those 5 by 2+. In 8 home starts he's gone 50 ip. & given up 39hits & 12 er. WHIP of 1.17 & opp ba of .217. That's who the hell he is. TB has the most home wins in the game, & KC hasn't been able to generate runs this entire series. Maybe at first glance this line looks high, but how is it not justified? A sp with Garza's numbers would be just as high (if not higher) of a home fave if they were on the Red Sox or Yankees. Only now you get him with TB, who at least are providing consistent run support. I think a play on KC is basically wagering on TB bats being cold, & Meche pitching well. If you believe those things happen, wouldn't the under be the wiser play? Personally I think the Rays win, but at this point I think you either play em or lay off...JMO
 
Starting to lean more to the under in Tampa. This is the first game where KC actually has a winning road on Monday record and Tampa this year before road trips has had these games
1. 3-5 loss to Yankees
2. 3-0 win vs Boston
3. 5-2 beat of Yankees
4. 4-3 beat of WS So under 8 was a money maker.
The only loss was with Jackson who has been a weak link most of the year at home. Garza at 6-2 home record represents some profit at minus 190 but current form certainly dictates playing Tampa. Will wait for line ups here
 
One team total that stands out for me is Philly team o5. Pedro on the road-?


5 games started

23.2 ip, 37 hits 22er & a .349 opp ba.


He's allowed 5+ er in his last 3 starts, I could really see this number hitting midway through the game. Phillie's bats have been cold the past 2 games, but look at their numbers off 2 straight home losses. Throw out the Boston/Halos June 17-22, & the Phillies have scored 5+ in games following 2 home losses.
 
True Lex. When I see these Who is such and such to be laying this price the post is almost always a disaster. Just on raw info Tampa is obviously correct and easily worth a larger price but the days of the week angle does bother me some here.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Garza is 5-1 in his last 6 @ home, plus TB has won those 5 by 2+. In 8 home starts he's gone 50 ip. & given up 39hits & 12 er. WHIP of 1.17 & opp ba of .217. That's who the hell he is. TB has the most home wins in the game, & KC hasn't been able to generate runs this entire series. Maybe at first glance this line looks high, but how is it not justified? A sp with Garza's numbers would be just as high (if not higher) of a home fave if they were on the Red Sox or Yankees. Only now you get him with TB, who at least are providing consistent run support. I think a play on KC is basically wagering on TB bats being cold, & Meche pitching well. If you believe those things happen, wouldn't the under be the wiser play? Personally I think the Rays win, but at this point I think you either play em or lay off...JMO
Click to expand...

of course, if I play KC, its because I like Meche at the price and would expect him to pitch well...I dont play totals - just my personal philosophy - too many beats over the years in spots like this where one team gets shut out but the other team puts up 10 and there goes the under........SP is the #1 handicapping tool IMO and my comment about Garza is that he has pitched well for 3 months, hes a young kid and for somebody to lay that price with someone like him, against a guy who is established, regardless of well the team is playing, is ludicrous in my opinion.....

edit....Garza is now -200.............All I can say is wow!!!!!!! I am playing KC just on principle.................GL gents!
 
Ben Zobrist will be playing shortstop. He is hitting .290 as a backup. Any opinons on his play at this position especially defensively?
 
Very interesting stats for the under tuck. Been on TB from the first Red Sox game until now, with the rl last 2. Was leaning towards KC team u3-105 (@ 5Dimes). Though it leaves little room for error, it also takes out the possibility of TB blowing it open later. KC struggles to get run support for Meche, look at his last 5 road starts


@Bal- KC scores 2 runs
@Zona- KC scores 8 runs
@Wsox- KC scores 2 runs
@Tor- KC scores 1 run
@Boston- KC scores 1 run


So they lit up Owings- they couldn't score over 2 runs vs Cabrera, Contreras, McGowan & Masterson.

Garza is better than all of these pitchers. Just noticed 1st 5 innings u4+100. I do love even money plays, that looks good as well.
 
With TB now-200, I'm starting to think that this could end up a 1 run game. It's my opinion that if you're playing KC, taking the rl is a much better value. I'm seeing +1.5-110 @ betus. The Royals have lost 6 road games by 1 run, & TB was won 5 of their last 10 home games by 1 run! IMO in a close game, TB has better results in getting the W.
 
Lexington 125 said:
With TB now-200, I'm starting to think that this could end up a 1 run game. It's my opinion that if you're playing KC, taking the rl is a much better value. I'm seeing +1.5-110 @ betus. The Royals have lost 6 road games by 1 run, & TB was won 5 of their last 10 home games by 1 run! IMO in a close game, TB has better results in getting the W.
Click to expand...
Imma have to disagree with you on this. I see your point, but the outrageous value on the ML is there, and if its going to be that close, I like the chances of KC pulling off the upset. In any sense, GL today.
 
TB/KC under 4 1st 5 seems to be the play. Garza hasn't conceded more than 3 runs in his last five starts. Garza is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA in his last three games and is 5-1 this season at Tropicana Field with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. KC lineup doesn't scare me one bit. In Meche's last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA.
 
STEED said:
Imma have to disagree with you on this. I see your point, but the outrageous value on the ML is there, and if its going to be that close, I like the chances of KC pulling off the upset. In any sense, GL today.
Click to expand...

I'm not playing it, still deciding whether or not to play TB tied to something. Still debating 1st5 under, game under & KC under. Maybe I play all 3 small.


I still ask, where is the VALUE? What would a correct line on this be? I simply don't see value in fading the hottest team in baseball right now. Definitely enough situationally to make me think hard about laying off, but just not enough for me to back KC. GL to you as well. :tiphat:




Am I missing something here with the Rockies/Brewers over? Better yet, someone please tell me why I shouldn't just pound the ever lovin shit out of the Brewers team over 4.5?

Jiminez is a much better pitcher @ home, his road numbers are downright awful. 42.2 ip, 49h33 er opp ba .324. 29 walks. Last 3 starts he hasn't gone over 5 ip & has given up 26 hits/14er & 8 walks 13 innings! He looked good in his last outing, but that was @ home vs. the anemic Padres. Throw in the obvious "pumped up about Sabathia" angle, the crowd will be wild, there will be an over play from Lex. Thinking of a larger play on the Brewers team over, smaller play on an adjusted o10+157.
 
Anybody think some of the TB bats like Crawford and Longoria will come out with a little added motivation today as they have the best record in the big's but only have 2 all star representatives. The players around the league vote for the reserves so it proves they still aren't getting much respect among their peers. I think Crawford and Longoria were very deserving and this could be used as a motivation tool. Just a thought....

NO Jose Guillen for KC
NO BJ UPton for TB

This game looks like a dead under which usually scares me. Still no feel for this game. Gl if you play it.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I'm not playing it, still deciding whether or not to play TB tied to something. Still debating 1st5 under, game under & KC under. Maybe I play all 3 small.


I still ask, where is the VALUE? What would a correct line on this be? I simply don't see value in fading the hottest team in baseball right now. Definitely enough situationally to make me think hard about laying off, but just not enough for me to back KC. GL to you as well. :tiphat:
Click to expand...

Value is subjective - hard to explain other than when I look at a ML, it jumps off the page.......I rarely ever bet favs so I look to pick my spots when I feel a starting pitcher for a dog is getting odds that I didnt expect.....Meche fits today............What I consider value is obviously not value to you or possibly others but thats why we call it gambling...
 
KC and Over 8 parlay pays about 4.5 to 1 which is just sick may have to take a shot at this point
 
i parlayed KC +177/ un 8 (-120) : i went to my book 10 minutes after i placed the bet and KC was down to +168. i have upton and guillen on my fantasy so that hurts but should help the under. meche better not get burned by pena today. i agree that tampa is the f*ckin shit and the hottest team but i would sure hate to lay this much juice going for a 4 game sweep w/ NYY on deck. tampa has the second most sweeps behind the white sox so they have been brooming people, but ill take my chances on KC saving a little dignity. garza is not much better than meche in terms of ability.
 
both are quality pitchers, i think this game might fly by. both bullpens are excellent as well.
 
SN: last night i got that push on the total because i paid extra juice to get it instead of settling for the 8.5, im telling you it hooks me up all the time.
 
Every now and again Garza has mixed in a clunker, he is coming off back to back dominating performances against Boston and Florida. Maybe the 5 left-handed sticks and the speed at the top can cause some problems for him. Really just taking a shot here, No Guillen or Grudz.

KC +185 & Over 8 -105 parlay....$50 to win $228:popcorn::shake:
 
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