DaBestBody4Life
Professional Student
im playin Tampa and really loving Boston to be honest with you guys so far....Sox need to start winning because tampa is leaving them in the dust....
Monday MLB Discussion
- Thread starter BetCrimes1984
- Start date
aplous
Donkey Hater
Think if you were doing a football parlay, you'd be parlaying -110 and say -115. Same rules for baseball, just higher or lower juice. Say, +130 and -150.....same thing, 2.5 to 1 or 6 to 1 odds or whatever, as a football parlay.
Both you guys have points about the early game @TB .
I still think TB is very overrated in the sense they are not doing anything great or great at anything . Sort of like the 1996 Yanks though a nice mix of young and old players some even thought to be finished . I have been saying the past few days and last night the reason why Boston and TB appear better and are playing better then NYY is they do all the little things right and it starts with sound SP . Stranding runners especially at the clip NYY does drains the team and flips momentum. So continually maximiing your baserunners and working pitchers pays huge dividends when coupled with strong solid SP and solid defense .
To bang home my point about this just happened to be on the TB home page on CBS and so this .....(headline of an article)
There's no secret to the success of the Rays this season. Good pitching, solid defense and timely hitting carried them to the top of the AL East standings.
So basically be aware if this ever stops hitting well situationally its when the slump will occur (or the SP falls to shit but I dont see that ) ..
Based on the fact that TB owns KC at home think 12-2 last 14 tries and the fact TB wins 73.5 % of there home games so far vs a team who wins 41 % of there away games . Generally on paper you would expect TB to win about 80% of the games vs KC in a virtual world .
I hate the WORD VALUE as its used on here by most . This clip from a site (sharkhandicapping I think ) explains it very well and explains my mentality on it .
Determining Baseball Odds
The baseball odds offered on any particular game or event are made up of several factors. As well as the analysis of the sportsbook offering the odds, bets placed by other bettors and breaking news stories are all vital aspects. However, somewhere within the prices for most games there lies value. This value means that the odds being offered are, in actual fact, better or higher than the real odds on that same outcome. Obviously, the major difficulty with reading baseball odds in this way is determining the likelihood of any event.
Anyway as I said on paper excluding SP's I think its comfortable to expect TB to win at home vs KC about 80% of the time seeing how the two have played . At -200 the TB expected rate is 67% to win . So yes there would be value in TB in those terms . You would then tweak for SP , bullpen work of late and actual lineups .
This is what Lex is trying to say well he is saying it correctly but I just broke it down for the visual . Fundamentally based on what has occurred in 2008 TB is cheap . Why ? Simple ....reputation and perception ! TB has long be the losers in the AL East and while we expected improvement not to this degree . So the mindset is they are overacheiving and therefore most bettors wont pay for them and are waiting for them to revert back to old form. The danger of gambling !!! When perception is so clear it can easily be deciphered . Books see it in betting patterns and know how to set the lines in there eyes to continue to profit despite the teams suprising success. Remember books dont adjust quickly because bettors tend NOT to adjust quickly . Usally they wait till the betting market changes it perception and then OVERadjust .
The flip is Sarcastic Sword saying is he cant see a solid vet like Meche being +180 dogs . Which is where it does get tricky as Meche is ONLY the pace setter . He needs to start the game well as KC is slumping offensively and opposing a guy who has been lights out at home in Garza and 2 starts ago threw a 1 hitter (CG) . So in theory Sword has a value point because in Game 4 of series where 1 team is down 0-3 and the other playing a huge rival the next day there is a tendency especially for a young team to overlook its opponent . More so here because its 3-0 with two lopsided games and a shutout in another. So technically I agree that Meche starting in this situation increases KC likelyhood of winning of that 20% range . However I think still fundamentally the "value" doesnt warrant play on KC. When your talking implied odds .
With me though there is NEVER just 1 way to do things its about adjusting everyday , learning everyday and tweaking your approach to fit whats occuring in the sport .
Some good info to have .....odds chart ..
http://www.smartcapper.com/chart_moneyline_breakeven.html
My plays were :
Under 8 runs -115 1u (sucker ?)
KC +1.5 RL -130 1u (crap price)
KC +170 .75 u
Reasoning :
Expected a 3-2 or 4-3 game . Most of TBs game on this stand were low scoring close games minus the games by Hovechar and Bannister two SP with road issues . The other games were 3-0 , 3-1 , 5-4 , etc...KC was actually 16-16 in day games solid for a team so far below .500 IMO and as I said TB had NYY on deck and TB 20-9 in game 1s and NYY is 5-11 in Game 1s at home so far .
KC did get swept in May in consecutive 4 game series @ Boston and @ Balt but recently had won games 1 and 4 in there 2 4 game sets . KC was 7-2 L9 Game 4's . KC had changed its Monday trend to win 5 of 8 so far . KC was 8-0 in Meche 's L8 starts away as a road dog of bewteen 150 and 200 . Though meche had some caution signs as KC was 1-13 L14 vs AL East , 10-21 L31 Meche starts , 8-22 L30 normal rest starts , and 3-14 with Meche when they scored 2 runs or less previous game.
So the situation became valuable to me when I see KC fighting to avoid a sweep and restore some positive momentum before returning home for WSox . As well as seein despite the terrible results behind Meche the 1 spot he and KC exceled in was as big dogs .
TB has sick stats. Like 24-2 L26 times laying bewteen 150 and 200 and 23-3 in that situation at home . Also while its terrible to imply here in 2008 TB was 19-43 L62 game 4s in series . The other negative was TB was 0-5 when Garza started vs a team below 500.....
I think UNDER reasoning in obvious which was a huge concern ( I hate obvious because if its obvious to linesmakers and bettors you never get fair value ) . Starting with SP but Timmons was also 11-1 Under his last 12 Monday games , TB was 23-7-1 Under L31 after scoring 5+ runs and KC was 14-3 Under with Meche as dog ....
Anyway kept getting distracted and sidetracked start this nearly 2 hours ago ....
Good Luck to all on this game ....:shake::cheers:
Good quick article on Matt Garza ....
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/a...ent_id=3077315&vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb
I still think TB is very overrated in the sense they are not doing anything great or great at anything . Sort of like the 1996 Yanks though a nice mix of young and old players some even thought to be finished . I have been saying the past few days and last night the reason why Boston and TB appear better and are playing better then NYY is they do all the little things right and it starts with sound SP . Stranding runners especially at the clip NYY does drains the team and flips momentum. So continually maximiing your baserunners and working pitchers pays huge dividends when coupled with strong solid SP and solid defense .
To bang home my point about this just happened to be on the TB home page on CBS and so this .....(headline of an article)
There's no secret to the success of the Rays this season. Good pitching, solid defense and timely hitting carried them to the top of the AL East standings.
So basically be aware if this ever stops hitting well situationally its when the slump will occur (or the SP falls to shit but I dont see that ) ..
Based on the fact that TB owns KC at home think 12-2 last 14 tries and the fact TB wins 73.5 % of there home games so far vs a team who wins 41 % of there away games . Generally on paper you would expect TB to win about 80% of the games vs KC in a virtual world .
I hate the WORD VALUE as its used on here by most . This clip from a site (sharkhandicapping I think ) explains it very well and explains my mentality on it .
Determining Baseball Odds
The baseball odds offered on any particular game or event are made up of several factors. As well as the analysis of the sportsbook offering the odds, bets placed by other bettors and breaking news stories are all vital aspects. However, somewhere within the prices for most games there lies value. This value means that the odds being offered are, in actual fact, better or higher than the real odds on that same outcome. Obviously, the major difficulty with reading baseball odds in this way is determining the likelihood of any event.
Anyway as I said on paper excluding SP's I think its comfortable to expect TB to win at home vs KC about 80% of the time seeing how the two have played . At -200 the TB expected rate is 67% to win . So yes there would be value in TB in those terms . You would then tweak for SP , bullpen work of late and actual lineups .
This is what Lex is trying to say well he is saying it correctly but I just broke it down for the visual . Fundamentally based on what has occurred in 2008 TB is cheap . Why ? Simple ....reputation and perception ! TB has long be the losers in the AL East and while we expected improvement not to this degree . So the mindset is they are overacheiving and therefore most bettors wont pay for them and are waiting for them to revert back to old form. The danger of gambling !!! When perception is so clear it can easily be deciphered . Books see it in betting patterns and know how to set the lines in there eyes to continue to profit despite the teams suprising success. Remember books dont adjust quickly because bettors tend NOT to adjust quickly . Usally they wait till the betting market changes it perception and then OVERadjust .
The flip is Sarcastic Sword saying is he cant see a solid vet like Meche being +180 dogs . Which is where it does get tricky as Meche is ONLY the pace setter . He needs to start the game well as KC is slumping offensively and opposing a guy who has been lights out at home in Garza and 2 starts ago threw a 1 hitter (CG) . So in theory Sword has a value point because in Game 4 of series where 1 team is down 0-3 and the other playing a huge rival the next day there is a tendency especially for a young team to overlook its opponent . More so here because its 3-0 with two lopsided games and a shutout in another. So technically I agree that Meche starting in this situation increases KC likelyhood of winning of that 20% range . However I think still fundamentally the "value" doesnt warrant play on KC. When your talking implied odds .
With me though there is NEVER just 1 way to do things its about adjusting everyday , learning everyday and tweaking your approach to fit whats occuring in the sport .
Some good info to have .....odds chart ..
http://www.smartcapper.com/chart_moneyline_breakeven.html
My plays were :
Under 8 runs -115 1u (sucker ?)
KC +1.5 RL -130 1u (crap price)
KC +170 .75 u
Reasoning :
Expected a 3-2 or 4-3 game . Most of TBs game on this stand were low scoring close games minus the games by Hovechar and Bannister two SP with road issues . The other games were 3-0 , 3-1 , 5-4 , etc...KC was actually 16-16 in day games solid for a team so far below .500 IMO and as I said TB had NYY on deck and TB 20-9 in game 1s and NYY is 5-11 in Game 1s at home so far .
KC did get swept in May in consecutive 4 game series @ Boston and @ Balt but recently had won games 1 and 4 in there 2 4 game sets . KC was 7-2 L9 Game 4's . KC had changed its Monday trend to win 5 of 8 so far . KC was 8-0 in Meche 's L8 starts away as a road dog of bewteen 150 and 200 . Though meche had some caution signs as KC was 1-13 L14 vs AL East , 10-21 L31 Meche starts , 8-22 L30 normal rest starts , and 3-14 with Meche when they scored 2 runs or less previous game.
So the situation became valuable to me when I see KC fighting to avoid a sweep and restore some positive momentum before returning home for WSox . As well as seein despite the terrible results behind Meche the 1 spot he and KC exceled in was as big dogs .
TB has sick stats. Like 24-2 L26 times laying bewteen 150 and 200 and 23-3 in that situation at home . Also while its terrible to imply here in 2008 TB was 19-43 L62 game 4s in series . The other negative was TB was 0-5 when Garza started vs a team below 500.....
I think UNDER reasoning in obvious which was a huge concern ( I hate obvious because if its obvious to linesmakers and bettors you never get fair value ) . Starting with SP but Timmons was also 11-1 Under his last 12 Monday games , TB was 23-7-1 Under L31 after scoring 5+ runs and KC was 14-3 Under with Meche as dog ....
Anyway kept getting distracted and sidetracked start this nearly 2 hours ago ....
Good Luck to all on this game ....:shake::cheers:
Good quick article on Matt Garza ....
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/a...ent_id=3077315&vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb
Good bro. I was actually thinking 4-4 he got fucked (and I fucked myself played over 1st 5inn instead of game over ) then I remembered you said you got Under 9 . Always better to take the higher numbers for UNDERS even if the vig sucks which it probably didnt in this case ( -115 to -120 range I would expect ) .....
We got jobbed on the under I think . I almost passed and then played it last second like 12:41 which should tell me its a loser . The ones I miss right at 1st pitch always win and I mean always while the last sec ones I get in tend to lose . I am so conscicious of it that I actually tell myself in the seconds I am waiting for the confirm...if its denied its a win if its accepted its a loss ....inside joke with myself !
Happy KC answered quickly though ...take the ML win and +1.5 RL win and the under loss as I only paid -115 .
GL today bro. :cheers:
Every now and again Garza has mixed in a clunker, he is coming off back to back dominating performances against Boston and Florida. Maybe the 5 left-handed sticks and the speed at the top can cause some problems for him. Really just taking a shot here, No Guillen or Grudz.
KC +185 & Over 8 -105 parlay....$50 to win $228opcorn::shake:
Great choice really at 4.5 to 1 certainly worth a shot given the situation . :cheers:GL
I know people think I am biased but I really dont think I am ( overly optimistic maybe ) . Other then seeing NYY's flaw rather quickly and thinking since they are usually so correctable why dont they figure it out as quick as I do and adjust . Might sound like an arrogant statement but if there is 1 game I know inside and out its baseball cause I grew up playing it and loved since like 5 years old . As well as having played at a high level , coached shortly at D-1 college and played with and against a bunch of past and present MLers. There is no doubt in my mind I could work in any GM's office or team scouting dept and I dont even follow it nearly like I used to .
Anyway Boston really isnt playing well and really both teams IMO stunk in that 4 games series . As I said yesterday Boston hit 1 maybe 2 balls hard for the most part the entire series to drive in runs . The Lowell HR and I guess the Cash double which may not have done damage had Jeter ate the ball rather then throw it wildly . Lowell's HR was awesome as it was a good pitch but the avg velocity allowed him to do that so if its not Rasner dishing out 89ish MPH fastballs in the 5th not sure he is able to hit that HR. Game 1 NYY handed to Boston starting with Jeter's 2 run error , followed by 1st and 2nd no out in the bottom half which they got nothing , follwoed by Pettitte;s struggle which later resulted in I belieev Ellsbury hitting a BLOOPER down the line to score to 2 runs after a sac bunt . Th elast 3 runs I dont even recall it was game over after the blooper as Pettitte was clearly not sharp that day he needed help and dint get any . Game 2 slight mismatch ...Beckett vs Rasner . Rasner was not bad (as interrible) but he isnt going to shut down teams and certainly a lineup like Boston's. So great job getting 3 quick runs vs Beckett but was the game over after the 1st ? Yanks did zip after that and Boston continually added pressure to Rasner and the turning point is the Damon play . I am not saying he should have caught that ball or expected him to catch that ball BUT once he is in position to make a play on it I do and did expect him to catch it . Worse is instead of 3-1 its 3-3 and we lose the hottest hitter and possibly most consistent bat in our lineup since May . Deflatting for sure . Game 3 we throw Mussina who hats off has been consistent and exceeded expectations and opened his mind to advice . Notice he hit Manny TWICE ! Not saying I want him to hit anyone but the point I made back in late April was he MUST throw inside OFF the plate to RHBs or he will not be successful. His fear of throwing in to RHs made to things happen. First is it gave RH comfortable atbats as they could basically expect all soft stuff middle of the plate away . Second is since mentally he didnt want to go in or trust his stuff inside the few times he did he excuted poorly and instead of running in OFF the plate it ran back over the middle . Sounds silly but look at the Garza article and you will see why the mental aspect is so important . Oh Red Sox did nothing at the plate vs him and despite there late rally they had bases loaded out and didnt tie the game or take the lead . Granted Mo is great but a team going good takes advantage . WHich is why its such a huge plus to win that game off Papelbon yesterday for NYY. Again Yanks bats struggled though . Game 4 Boston had 1 solid hit that I recall and didnt see Youk's 1st hit or the hit to start the 9th . Solid hits are important because IMO they show how well a team is swinging and granted the bloopers and bleeders tend to be the sign a team is or player is breaking out of slump but Boston offensively has just started to really scuffle . Anyway Boston in a perfect world probably wouldnt have scored yesterday if NYY executed better but tip your hat to Boston for getting 4 runs off nothing . A WP for a run , a 2run blooper with 2 outs and IF single with a throwing error that was followedd by a double . NYY basically swung at everything close for 4 innings started changing there philosophy in the 5th and after just an ARod SOLO HR started putting together quality atbats the 2nd H of the game yesterday . Does it carry over ?
I just look @ Boston's road trip and shake my head at there performance . Good teams arent 31-10 at home and then 21-29 away . Two extremes in performance and w/o checking the difference is close games . I bet that at home they find ways to pull games out late and on the road they dont . Off the top of my head what better examples then there last 2 games in NYY . They could have won both but lost both , what about the TB Series lost 5-4 , lost 3-1 and then lost a game they had a 4-1 lead in the 7th inning ! , how bout @ Houston lost 3-2 late when Beckett started and 11-10 ......see a pattern ?? There recent homestand ? STL and Zona two slumping teams coming in who couldnt hit . They go 3-3 but remember vs STL thet lost games 1 and 2 then trailed 3-0 late in the Sunday game eventually evening it up then winning in deep extra innings after STL had a runner thrown out at home and turned to ex-MAAC pitcher Mike Parisi who in 2 batters lost the game on a walkoff to Youk. Another win remember the gem Doug Davis pitched ? he lead what 4-1 to start the 8th and Zona left him in just a bit long with such a good pen IMO and the Sox scored 4 in the b8th to steal it 5-4 .....
So at home they turned 1-5 into 3-3 and away they could have been 9-1 but instead 3-7 as they LOST 6 times by 1 run !!
Granted most teams are like this the BUT being how extreme and obvious it is for Boston and eventually the will stop pulling out at the close ones at home as well.
Think with Baker its Minny best chance to win a game . As Dice-K is less then his spectular himself on normal rest and Minny follows with Blackburn vs Lester (Twins lackluster vs LHP and Lester filthy at home and starting to look equally good away see Philly and NYY starts) , with Livan the type of guy who could be real terrible vs a patient Boston team who does well vs medicore stuff SP and they face Beckett ......
:cheers:
jimbo1227
Nice around mics, word to pippen
ended up making a bunch of plays. have KC & under pending and im continuing to use the two team parlay system.
bosox/ov 9 : baker has been a really consistent guy but i have this feeling boston is not going to lose two games in a row on national tv. i bet nyy last night but im going w/ boston tonight. i think it will be a fairly high scoring exciting game tonight. boston, like the cubs and other good home teams, score a shitload at home. minny is hot enough to get at least a couple off daisuke. baker is on a good run, but i think it comes to a screeching halt tonight. i could see boston win 7-5.
Laa -140/ ov 10.5 : mendoza was the starting pitcher in the game the yanks put up 18. they are playing in the joke of a ballpark and i think there will be balls flying out of the park. i dont even think lines are off when angels are on the road because they are that good on the road. santana should concede 3-4 runs to a team he hasn't had success with. i think angels explode. 7-6 or 7-5 would be nice.
sea +134/ un 8 : im gonna go w/ my under the radar guy in washy. ive cashed a few tickets with this guy and he still somehow has the ability to shut down teams. eveland sure as hell is tight but this line looks pretty damn shady and ill fade the public and take the underdog in what should be a low scoring affair. oakland had the flight from chi to oakland, and both offenses are nothing special.
phi -133/ un 10.5 : eaton is another guy who i have researched and his numbers are just do not serve him justice. he is solid and i think this o/u is way off. maybe books think pedro could get absolutely ruined tonight but i think he will stay at least respectable but not as good as eaton. ill trust to philly offense to scratch across enough and eaton along w/ the solid philly bullpen should get the split in this big series.
col +118/ov 8.5 : another line that looks pretty shady and ill fade the public in what people think should be big momentum knowing they got CC. that doesnt change the fact the rockies are surging and pretty much crushing the ball lately. milkmen can definately score at home but i trust ubaldo more than mcclung who is prone to the long ball. ubaldo hasn't had shit for run support on the road which is why the rockies haven't won one game when he has started on the road. well, they are finally hitting and they should give the young guy some runs to work with which is big. line opened at 9.5 but went to 9 because public was pounding so i get the 8.5 for pretty damn cheap. i like these plays, but colorado can be complete shit on the road.
bosox/ov 9 : baker has been a really consistent guy but i have this feeling boston is not going to lose two games in a row on national tv. i bet nyy last night but im going w/ boston tonight. i think it will be a fairly high scoring exciting game tonight. boston, like the cubs and other good home teams, score a shitload at home. minny is hot enough to get at least a couple off daisuke. baker is on a good run, but i think it comes to a screeching halt tonight. i could see boston win 7-5.
Laa -140/ ov 10.5 : mendoza was the starting pitcher in the game the yanks put up 18. they are playing in the joke of a ballpark and i think there will be balls flying out of the park. i dont even think lines are off when angels are on the road because they are that good on the road. santana should concede 3-4 runs to a team he hasn't had success with. i think angels explode. 7-6 or 7-5 would be nice.
sea +134/ un 8 : im gonna go w/ my under the radar guy in washy. ive cashed a few tickets with this guy and he still somehow has the ability to shut down teams. eveland sure as hell is tight but this line looks pretty damn shady and ill fade the public and take the underdog in what should be a low scoring affair. oakland had the flight from chi to oakland, and both offenses are nothing special.
phi -133/ un 10.5 : eaton is another guy who i have researched and his numbers are just do not serve him justice. he is solid and i think this o/u is way off. maybe books think pedro could get absolutely ruined tonight but i think he will stay at least respectable but not as good as eaton. ill trust to philly offense to scratch across enough and eaton along w/ the solid philly bullpen should get the split in this big series.
col +118/ov 8.5 : another line that looks pretty shady and ill fade the public in what people think should be big momentum knowing they got CC. that doesnt change the fact the rockies are surging and pretty much crushing the ball lately. milkmen can definately score at home but i trust ubaldo more than mcclung who is prone to the long ball. ubaldo hasn't had shit for run support on the road which is why the rockies haven't won one game when he has started on the road. well, they are finally hitting and they should give the young guy some runs to work with which is big. line opened at 9.5 but went to 9 because public was pounding so i get the 8.5 for pretty damn cheap. i like these plays, but colorado can be complete shit on the road.
Just before I go through Jimbo's post I will say this .
I highly DOUBT that Boston loses the series to Minnesota as the SP is strongly favoring Boston especially after today . Blackburn vs Lester then Livan vs Beckett . Tough tasks for Minny ......and both twins SP have led Minny to wins in there starts vs Boston already .
So while I think Twins best chance is game 1 doesnt mean I think Minny is a great play and Boston a bad one just think they have there best chance here....
I highly DOUBT that Boston loses the series to Minnesota as the SP is strongly favoring Boston especially after today . Blackburn vs Lester then Livan vs Beckett . Tough tasks for Minny ......and both twins SP have led Minny to wins in there starts vs Boston already .
So while I think Twins best chance is game 1 doesnt mean I think Minny is a great play and Boston a bad one just think they have there best chance here....
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Agree Baker is the best shot. Did play Phillie. Torn on Anaheim and probably just passing. Anaheim has been almost totally dominant on the road vs Lefties but the win in Texas for Santana was vs autofade Jennings. Might play Anaheim if I see a solid road ump with their completely rested pen. Do not like much action the first day of series.
Would say NO rehab work . Shoulder burisitis equals rest and its been about 17-18 days since his last start so not that much time and one would think he was told to rest for at least 10 days before throwing again .
Found this which seems to back it up -
Jul 7 Dumatrait was activated from the DL on Monday, the team's official website reports.
Recommendation: He will start on Monday night at home against the Astros. Dumatrait will be limited to 75-80 pitches, according to manager John Russell. The Pirates hope that Dumatrait's recent struggles were injury-related. He says that he feels refreshed after his 17-day absence.
:shake:
yeah Twinkies and Philly will be plays . Eaton previous success vs NYM just as important as Pedros struggles . Also agree 1st time in Texas was more as you said autofade of Jennings then play on Santana . Although I believe if we checked back I played Jennings . Think Texas got 3 in the first but Jennings came back at less then 100% slowly gave it back to LAA ....:shake:
Really like COL myself as MILW sends out CC , Sheets and Bush vs 3 straight medicore at best LHSP in Redman , Rusch and DeLaRosa . Lot of hoopla I am sure in MILW with the acquistion of CC yesterday and alot of looking forward to seeing him start tmrw . So I think for today the deal is a huge negative as the anticipation and focus will probably be on his debut rather then COL today . Jimenez has an explosive fastball and can destroy RHBs if he is on and this is a great spot for him IMO despite his road struggled becaue of MILW makeup and the trade .
Dont disagree with much had SEA-under circled yesterday . Like Philly but who doesnt so far and under is certainly contrarian but Not sure I can bite . Like Eatons past success vs NYM and he was very good his last outing at home till he hit the wall in the 5th and 6th innings vs them quicker then expected (think NYM won 4-3 ) ...
The AL not sure I get involved . LAA road play is all about there SP which to me is sort of logical . They are not a great road team they are a team who gets good SP and follows what I have said about Boston and TB. The good SP , good defense and good pen coupled with timely situationaly hitting makes you look better then you are . Its why they dont play clearly at better at home because there play is the same always . Starts with sound SP and ends with situational hitting . So not sure I want to pay 140 when Texas is facing a RHSP . Something like say 28-12 L40 vs RHSP ( was 26-10 in Yanks series but not sure if that was after game 1 or 2 ) ...
GL bro ! See I read it just dont have the time to always comment ....:cheers:
As soon as I saw Mahay start the 8th I was like oh shit . Typical manager falling in love with his performance and not realizing he hasnt dont this before . Only 6 apps lasting 2 innings and only 1 back in April where he went more then 2 innings . technically here he was starting his 3rd inning and subconsciously knew that was a red flag .
Of coure leadoff double follows . Now he got Hinske would like to see him pulled with 2 innings under his belt .
2 inn apps (6)
12.1inn 6 hits 1 run beofre today last 5 scoreless ....nice
Of coure leadoff double follows . Now he got Hinske would like to see him pulled with 2 innings under his belt .
2 inn apps (6)
12.1inn 6 hits 1 run beofre today last 5 scoreless ....nice
Feel fortunate to escape that jam. Ramirez death on RH does allow LHB a nearly 300 clip (296) this season . The positive was his last 10 outings all scoreless except 1 unearned run although that doesnt include inherited runners was nice to see. Other option put Horacio Ramirez in an unfamiliar role and have him face TB top off the order with LHBs . So far excellent 1-12 vs LHP with 0bbs and 3 ks but again unfamiliar pressure situation for a former SP not the same as the games he tends to pitch in normally ...
wrong team though .....
DaBestBody4Life
Professional Student
congrats KC backers...I was on tampa....but I am still liking Boston tonight especially now that they know Tampa lost....also liking Philly...I think that is all I am playing
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
Every now and again Garza has mixed in a clunker, he is coming off back to back dominating performances against Boston and Florida. Maybe the 5 left-handed sticks and the speed at the top can cause some problems for him. Really just taking a shot here, No Guillen or Grudz.
KC +185 & Over 8 -105 parlay....$50 to win $228opcorn::shake:
Thanks SN
Worked out great as this game really should have flown over the total without needing extra innings. Both teams left countless runners on base and neither starter was particualarly sharp, but did work out of jams so gotta to give some credit there. Feels good to start the day off on a winning note.
I will no doubt be on Minnesota +160 and will look to get the right price to play Minny +1.5. As has been mentioned this is the most realistic chance for the Twins to win a game in this series but I honestly see them sneaking out one of the next two if they happen to get this one home.
I was all set to do a 3 team parlay of:
KC +185
KC Over 8 Even
Minn +160
Then I guess they threw the first pitch in the game and I was shut out. 100 was going to pay like 1350 so could be a very costly mistake.
KC +185 & Over 8 -105 parlay....$50 to win $228
opcorn::shake:Thanks SN
Worked out great as this game really should have flown over the total without needing extra innings. Both teams left countless runners on base and neither starter was particualarly sharp, but did work out of jams so gotta to give some credit there. Feels good to start the day off on a winning note.
I will no doubt be on Minnesota +160 and will look to get the right price to play Minny +1.5. As has been mentioned this is the most realistic chance for the Twins to win a game in this series but I honestly see them sneaking out one of the next two if they happen to get this one home.
I was all set to do a 3 team parlay of:
KC +185
KC Over 8 Even
Minn +160
Then I guess they threw the first pitch in the game and I was shut out. 100 was going to pay like 1350 so could be a very costly mistake.
Peldas
Capping Slovenian Style
What about Marlins+105 today?
Nolasco last 3 starts ERA 2,45 and Marlins are scoring 5,7 runs/game on the road. We saw how they play in Colorado. They are one of the biggest suprises this year.
San Diego avg 3,6 runs/game and Maddux last 3 starts ERA 7,79
The only concern here is that Nolasco loss that game this year against Padres 4,7 IP/6 R, 11 hits.
I agree with Colorado. But will stay away probably.
Took Mariners +150 early
Took Phillies -133
Thinking about Houston, but concerns me that game yesterday, but also on other side Dumatrait after DL... Think also Astros are better team and hit lefties better then RHP.
Took Dodgers(-1)
Probably will stay away from games in Boston and Texas
So from this point I am thinking right now to take Marlins (big lean) and Astros (small lean)
Nolasco last 3 starts ERA 2,45 and Marlins are scoring 5,7 runs/game on the road. We saw how they play in Colorado. They are one of the biggest suprises this year.
San Diego avg 3,6 runs/game and Maddux last 3 starts ERA 7,79
The only concern here is that Nolasco loss that game this year against Padres 4,7 IP/6 R, 11 hits.
I agree with Colorado. But will stay away probably.
Took Mariners +150 early
Took Phillies -133
Thinking about Houston, but concerns me that game yesterday, but also on other side Dumatrait after DL... Think also Astros are better team and hit lefties better then RHP.
Took Dodgers(-1)
Probably will stay away from games in Boston and Texas
So from this point I am thinking right now to take Marlins (big lean) and Astros (small lean)
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
Red Sox are just 5 and 10 over their last 15 games and have lost 7 of their last 10 and this has coincided with JD Drew cooling off just a little bit. He has 3 HR's and 8 RBI's over those 15 games while Manny has just 1 HR and 4 RBI over that same stretch of games.
The Red Sox have also not been very good in game 1's of series lately losing 7 of their last 9 game 1's. Including their last 4 @ home to the likes of Seattle, Baltimore, St. Louis and Arizona. Really just think this spot sets up very nicely for Minnesota after the still very large series with the Yanks over the weekend.
The Red Sox have also not been very good in game 1's of series lately losing 7 of their last 9 game 1's. Including their last 4 @ home to the likes of Seattle, Baltimore, St. Louis and Arizona. Really just think this spot sets up very nicely for Minnesota after the still very large series with the Yanks over the weekend.
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
Over is 8-2-1 in Santanas last 11 starts vs. TEX.
I am still not ready to fully invest myself into Santanas road turn around. This is a guy who is a 6-1 in 10 starts on the road with a 3.36 ERA this year. Which is just remarkable considering he was 1-10 with a 8.38 ERA in 14 starts just last year on the road. Last year he couldn't get anybody out and now this year has become dominant. I know a lot of it was mental as this guy has great stuff but this is such a huge start for him. He was just named to his 1st all star team and wants to go out and prove he is worthy of this honor, however the 1st 4 guys in Texas's lineup are all stars as well. Angels 1st place in the West by 6 games and nobody outside of their pitching staff even sniffed an all star nomination.
Mendoza is getting just his 4th start of the year and just his 2nd since April 23rd. He lasted just 4 & 1/3rd vs the Yanks in his last outing. So you are looking at atleast 4 innings of the Texas bullpen which is always a crapshoot. LAA are known for being very patient hitters and Mendoza is prone to the occasional BB. Since the poor offensive output at the end of June, they have really turned the corner in July putting up 5, 7, 8, 5 and 7 runs in their last 5 games. Expect for them to hang atleast 6 runs on the weakest pitcher by far they have faced in this stretch. Rangers are also just 7.5 back of LAA and playing really good baseball as they have crept to 3 games over .500. They know the importance of this 4 game series and how important it is to get off to a good start tonight. They really don't have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups so Texas has to rely on their bats to win games for them. Right now Texas is #1 in MLB with 488 runs, 2nd in batting avg. w/ a .280 avg., 3rd in OBP @ .352, and 1st in slugging % @ .455. Not to mention they are 2nd to last in ERA w/ a team ERA of 4.98.
All this adds up to an over play provided the lineups are as expected.
Over 10.5 -110
I am still not ready to fully invest myself into Santanas road turn around. This is a guy who is a 6-1 in 10 starts on the road with a 3.36 ERA this year. Which is just remarkable considering he was 1-10 with a 8.38 ERA in 14 starts just last year on the road. Last year he couldn't get anybody out and now this year has become dominant. I know a lot of it was mental as this guy has great stuff but this is such a huge start for him. He was just named to his 1st all star team and wants to go out and prove he is worthy of this honor, however the 1st 4 guys in Texas's lineup are all stars as well. Angels 1st place in the West by 6 games and nobody outside of their pitching staff even sniffed an all star nomination.
Mendoza is getting just his 4th start of the year and just his 2nd since April 23rd. He lasted just 4 & 1/3rd vs the Yanks in his last outing. So you are looking at atleast 4 innings of the Texas bullpen which is always a crapshoot. LAA are known for being very patient hitters and Mendoza is prone to the occasional BB. Since the poor offensive output at the end of June, they have really turned the corner in July putting up 5, 7, 8, 5 and 7 runs in their last 5 games. Expect for them to hang atleast 6 runs on the weakest pitcher by far they have faced in this stretch. Rangers are also just 7.5 back of LAA and playing really good baseball as they have crept to 3 games over .500. They know the importance of this 4 game series and how important it is to get off to a good start tonight. They really don't have the advantage in any of the pitching matchups so Texas has to rely on their bats to win games for them. Right now Texas is #1 in MLB with 488 runs, 2nd in batting avg. w/ a .280 avg., 3rd in OBP @ .352, and 1st in slugging % @ .455. Not to mention they are 2nd to last in ERA w/ a team ERA of 4.98.
All this adds up to an over play provided the lineups are as expected.
Over 10.5 -110
I like this game under...
7:05 Starts :
Minnesota +1.5 -140 1u
Over 9 -105 1u
Over 5 1st 5 innings 1u
Philly -140 2u
Over 11 -105 1u
Houston +120 1u
Looking still at the Pitt over . Reason for Houston is they blew that game yesterday and Runny actualy was released by Pitt after the 07 season so think he will to put his best foot forward . Dumtrait off the DL hasnt pitched in the minors cause of the short stay and on a short leash with about 80 pitches this evening. Just not happy with Pitts pen especially now that Capps is lost .
8:05 (may add to these)
Col ML 1u
10:05 starts (again may add)
Seattle ML 1u
SD ML 1u
Good Luck all :cheers:
Minnesota +1.5 -140 1u
Over 9 -105 1u
Over 5 1st 5 innings 1u
Philly -140 2u
Over 11 -105 1u
Houston +120 1u
Looking still at the Pitt over . Reason for Houston is they blew that game yesterday and Runny actualy was released by Pitt after the 07 season so think he will to put his best foot forward . Dumtrait off the DL hasnt pitched in the minors cause of the short stay and on a short leash with about 80 pitches this evening. Just not happy with Pitts pen especially now that Capps is lost .
8:05 (may add to these)
Col ML 1u
10:05 starts (again may add)
Seattle ML 1u
SD ML 1u
Good Luck all :cheers:
BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Big odd drops for the Philly & Texas Overs curtails my interest in them.
just live betting in the BOS/MIN affair looks like for me.
just live betting in the BOS/MIN affair looks like for me.
TheSportsThing
Go NY Go NY Go Go Go
On Minny here. Only play of day
TheSportsThing
Go NY Go NY Go Go Go
GL all and great info on stats and everything as always. Helps me out when I'm limited on time after work right before games.
:shake:
:shake:
Added :
Texas ML and 1.5 RL -135 1u each ( fading Santana on extra rest while Menodza wasnt that bad @ NYY minus the Giambi GS and is now home plus Texas vs RHP huge roll of late )
Col ML +120 bumped it to 1.5 u
Parlay :
Over Philly , Over Boston , SD ML and Sea +1.5 RL 1u to win 10 u
GL --hoops time
Texas ML and 1.5 RL -135 1u each ( fading Santana on extra rest while Menodza wasnt that bad @ NYY minus the Giambi GS and is now home plus Texas vs RHP huge roll of late )
Col ML +120 bumped it to 1.5 u
Parlay :
Over Philly , Over Boston , SD ML and Sea +1.5 RL 1u to win 10 u
GL --hoops time
