Monday Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

May 17 Mon 2021

6:40 PM
951	San Francisco GiantsL. Webb -R		+130	O 8 -120
952	Cincinnati RedsS. Gray -R		-140	U 8 +100

7:40 PM
961	Chicago White SoxD. Keuchel -L		-105	O 8½ -120
962	Minnesota TwinsJ. Happ -L		-105	U 8½ +100

8:05 PM
963	New York YankeesG. Cole -R		-270	O 8 -110
964	Texas RangersJ. Lyles -R		+241	U 8 -110

9:38 PM
965	Cleveland IndiansS. Hentges -L		+125	O 9 -115
966	Los Angeles AngelsP. Sandoval -L		-135	U 9 -105

 

[gsro]

CWS tt over, CWS over these two just played and we get 9 innings of CWS at bats

MLB Gameday: Twins 8, White Sox 13 Final Score (05/12/2021)

Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Twins vs. White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field

www.mlb.com

 

[Big daddy naught]

CWS tt over, CWS over these two just played and we get 9 innings of CWS at bats

MLB Gameday: Twins 8, White Sox 13 Final Score (05/12/2021)

Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Twins vs. White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field

www.mlb.com

That over 8.5 looks good too

 

[gsro]

That over 8.5 looks good too

Yup got it 8.5, 1.86 last night see it's moved a whole run

 

[GWarner27]

can't believe StL handed yet another game away to that AAA SD lineup, may need to downgrade them since they walk everybody

Interests though some of these prices are just too big even on clearly flawed teams like ARI

May 17	webbL
	walkerT
	lester
	bumgarner
	HAPP
	LYLES
	hentges
	mize

 

[GWarner27]

CWS tt over, CWS over these two just played and we get 9 innings of CWS at bats

MLB Gameday: Twins 8, White Sox 13 Final Score (05/12/2021)

Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Twins vs. White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field

www.mlb.com

keuchel's control has not been good and if he doesn't have that he's got nothing

 

[gsro]

can't believe StL handed yet another game away to that AAA SD lineup, may need to downgrade them since they walk everybody

Interests though some of these prices are just too big even on clearly flawed teams like ARI

May 17	webbL
	walkerT
	lester
	bumgarner
	HAPP
	LYLES
	hentges
	mize

Does this mean we will see poopholes @ first tonight with Bum going? -200 for Walker and a lineup that has Betts and nothing else is laughable.

 

[GWarner27]

Does this mean we will see poopholes @ first tonight with Bum going? -200 for Walker and a lineup that has Betts and nothing else is laughable.

gotta keep Muncy in that lineup so he probably plays 2B if Pujols starts. Buehler hasn't been great from what i recall this season either

 

[gsro]

gotta keep Muncy in that lineup so he probably plays 2B if Pujols starts. Buehler hasn't been great from what i recall this season either

pretty much; and you're likely moving Lux to short with Corey out...

OF is going to be Betts, Beaty, Taylor, Raley combo? IF looks like Turner, Lux, Muncy, Poopholes...

 

[gsro]

a game the reds had no business winning but did cause both bullpens are a disaster now travel back east from Denver off a long road trip? Short travel for SF from Pitt to Cincy.

Yes, Denver is more midwest than west but still worse travel if that is being considered in capping

 

[twinkie13]

Lyles on price and recent Tex skid....might be throwing away money though

 

[GWarner27]

a game the reds had no business winning but did cause both bullpens are a disaster now travel back east from Denver off a long road trip? Short travel for SF from Pitt to Cincy.

Yes, Denver is more midwest than west but still worse travel if that is being considered in capping

CIN pen is trash anyway but Sims did get yday off

 

[GWarner27]

Lyles on price and recent Tex skid....might be throwing away money though

streaks only end once, but can continue for a while. Not sure i'd want to get involved though the price merits it (probably too high for a reason)

 

[Smokeshow99]

With a quick glance at stats, I see value with Webb. Gray might look better than he is, due to slumping good teams and lineup injuries last 3

 

[Smokeshow99]

I'd love to back Mize. Dodgers gave Kikuchi problems even if the normal stats don't say do. Tigers are not the Dodgers

Kikuchi has gained almost 2 mph on his fastball from first to last start.

 

[GWarner27]

With a quick glance at stats, I see value with Webb. Gray might look better than he is, due to slumping good teams and lineup injuries last 3

he was awesome vs CHW, made me take back my stance that he can't go deep in games. Not sure i'm fully off of that, but CIN bullpen is certainly poor and coming off COL should be far from fresh. Should get 2-3 IP at least from the CIN pen

 

[GWarner27]

I'd love to back Mize. Dodgers gave Kikuchi problems even if the normal stats don't say do. Tigers are not the Dodgers

the worst offense in the league can win some, but Mize isn't trustworthy to me at all even if they do hit Kikuchi and that hot SEA pen (though they did a bullpen game yesterday)

 

[Smokeshow99]

the worst offense in the league can win some, but Mize isn't trustworthy to me at all even if they do hit Kikuchi and that hot SEA pen (though they did a bullpen game yesterday)

After looking at Kikuchi's velocity, I think it's a wash. I'd probably stay away now.

 

[GWarner27]

After looking at Kikuchi's velocity, I think it's a wash. I'd probably stay away now.

go on? A lot of people liked him for fantasy this year

 

[Smokeshow99]

go on? A lot of people liked him for fantasy this year

Im thinking about it. The under the hood stuff, he flipped a switch 3 starts ago (bad to almost great). He cut down his fastball by half (avg 37% to 22%), raised split and cutter.
Dodgers hit a lot of F(ly)balls against him. 85% med + hard, still gave him a 1.49 *xFIP.

*FIP to xFIP

 

[GWarner27]

nobody looks unavailable from the CIN pen, which is pretty good managing way above what we're used to from Bell. SF had a couple major blowups this weekend so that would be par for the course if i bet them tonight. Rogers closed yesterday working his 3rd out of 4 days after McGee blew two saves this weekend, doubt Rogers pitches tonight but McGee did save three straight after a blowup @ COL. Not many L in the CIN lineup tonight, but McGee has reverse splits over his career and I'm not sure he's lost it completely after being so good earlier in the year. Besides Rogers, the bullpen looks a little thin as I'm not sure I trust Baragar yet and Wisler as the next up makes me think there needs to be a lead of 2+ to avoid another blown save

Webb was another expected to do well this season after a solid spring and the metrics community loved him, but I think I need to look closer at each start. A blowup @ COL two starts ago, but besides that only one other bad outing @ PHI. Dominated MIA at home, but that's not saying much.

CIN lineup probably fits in the good category, no Moustakas hurts and Votto missing, too. Naquin got off to a hot start, but not sure he's a formidable cleanup hitter and Suarez has been pretty poor yet again this year. SF lineup is never pretty, but looks as strong as it can be.

Sonny Gray followed up a great performance vs CHW unable to finish the 5th @ PIT and that's been a problem for him. He started the year late, but only 2 of his 5 starts saw him reaching the 6th and he only finished it on get-away day vs CHW. I'd expect Sims, Doolittle and Antone to be the three most important relievers for CIN. Don't love that being the good squad, but both Antone and Sims can offer more than an inning and that matters with Gray unlikely to give more than 6. Garrett can't be trusted, but Doolittle as the LHP matters for Crawford and Yaz while Belt is not in the lineup.

Currently priced 45% and that's caught my eye a bit as i think it deserves to be closer to a coinflip, but i'm not sure I'm comfortable with Webb and his bullpen

 

[GWarner27]

anybody got an opinion on Hentges? CLE will win the bullpen matchup if they can survive the starters and Sandoval has never impressed me

Looks like Hentges won't go deep and has some accuracy issues, which is not great. Bullpen looks fresh on both sides, but Strickland, Mayers, Iglesias and Watson ain't pretty

 

[GWarner27]

Pujols cleanup lol

 

[KJ]

Pujols cleanup lol

Geriatric Bum v Pujols matchup, might have to put the dentures in

 

[Smokeshow99]

Pujols cleanup lol

Wasn’t he washed up 4 years ago?

Also, know nothing about hentges. I looked at his minor league numbers and they are weird. High walk rate, low era.

I’ll let fangraphs waiver wire article explain,

“He has been getting hit around (.359 BABIP, 2.63 HR/9) but been able to maintain an ERA under 4.00 with his ERA estimators between mid-4’s to the 6’s. I think he’s interesting to park on a bench to see how the talent plays out.”

 

[gsro]

Pujols cleanup lol

wyd roberts.

 

[twinkie13]

Bringing the magic back lol

 

[KJ]

wyd roberts.

You know he hated that the org signed him, what a shit position to be in really

 

[gsro]

Good start with Chicago game. Thanks for not being chumps

 

[gsro]

You know he hated that the org signed him, what a shit position to be in really

Dark days on doyers land.. can’t wait to hear Bauer sound off on this

 

[GWarner27]

it'd be a new level if Bauer clowned the organization for signing a grandpa to sell some shirseys

 

[CPA-hole]

Walker done after 3 solid innings for the Mets.

 

[gsro]

Wasn’t he washed up 4 years ago?

Also, know nothing about hentges. I looked at his minor league numbers and they are weird. High walk rate, low era.

I’ll let fangraphs waiver wire article explain,

“He has been getting hit around (.359 BABIP, 2.63 HR/9) but been able to maintain an ERA under 4.00 with his ERA estimators between mid-4’s to the 6’s. I think he’s interesting to park on a bench to see how the talent plays out.”

He has 1 all star selection in his time in LA, but 5 years ago was the beginning of what we see today. Good on him for getting that contract though.

 

[gsro]

it'd be a new level if Bauer clowned the organization for signing a grandpa to sell some shirseys

Would anyone put it passed him? Probably not

 

[CPA-hole]

Walker done after 3 solid innings for the Mets.

Left side tightness.

 

[KJ]

Left side tightness.

Sounds like something I've gotten a a scrip crub

 

[gsro]

I'l take it to help the cause, but if Madrigal is hitting homers..you have to be concerned about your pitching

 

[GWarner27]

MIN gonna start selling

 

[Smokeshow99]

The Giants pen are going to be the HR derby pitchers.

 

[Smokeshow99]

Speaking of bullpens, one of the ATL relievers tried to murder Kevin Pillar. That was a large amount of blood.

 

[GWarner27]

missed it what happened

 

[gsro]

missed it what happened

Looked like a bad pitch, but hit him in the face and a lot of blood. Got up on his own and ran to dugout. Broken nose probs

 

[Smokeshow99]

Looked like a bad pitch, but hit him in the face and a lot of blood. Got up on his own and ran to dugout. Broken nose probs

He'd be lucky if that was it.

 

[gsro]

He'd be lucky if that was it.

I don’t think it’s more than that tbh. Maybe broker orbital but he ran under his own power.

 

[GWarner27]

damn Rogers going b3b and 4 in 5 is a big ask in 2021

 

[Smokeshow99]

damn Rogers going b3b and 4 in 5 is a big ask in 2021

I am fucked. *Better to be lucky than good. Rogers is Ricky Vaughn.

 

[GSlap]

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[Smokeshow99]

Lucky ass Giants. They got Castillo going tomorrow. I'll be going against that bullpen whenever I can. Selman & Wisler are terrible.

 

[twinkie13]

Of course Rangers.

Fuck

 

[twinkie13]

I don’t grind it everyday so it pisses me off when that number is there.