MLB Discussion for the Week of 4/25/2016

nbafan88

nbafan88

Pretty much a regular
Not enough activity in these discussion threads so I figured to a weekly thread... if y'all disagree we can switch it back whenever


looking at the afternoon game we have the giants who I have looked at being a very good day team the past few years... but they are headed out east after today so could make some for quick at bats.
 
both the padres & giants are in the bottom 5 in era in day games this season....


wind is blowing out and thats usually a positive in day games in sf... gonna take the over 7.5 -105
 
Nicolino will attempt to buck the trend and thrive in the majors while hardly striking out anyone at all. He did pretty well in his first 12 starts last year, posting a 4.01 ERA despite fanning a total of 23 batters. Still, it took a .259 BABIP to make that happen (for comparison’s sake, only seven of 78 qualified starters came in that low last year). Nicolino offers excellent command of his 88-91 mph sinking fastball. His changeup is an above-average pitch, but he doesn’t excel with either his cutter or curveball. He should strike out a few more batters this year, but probably not more than one every other inning. If that’s going to work out for him, it’s imperative that he induce a ton of grounders. Right now, he’s more of an interesting experiment than someone fantasy leaguers should be excited about.
Updated Apr. 27: Marlins recalled LHP Justin Nicolino from Triple-A New Orleans. Nicolino will start for Miami on Wednesday night against the Dodgers. He's posted decent numbers in the majors in the past, but the 24-year-old lefty doesn't miss many bats and he makes for a poor fantasy streaming versus Los Angeles. It's long clear how long the Marlins plan to keep him up.
 
Cashner had a pick off out overturned by replay and he completely lost his rhythm... the beauty of technology lol


just lucked out of giving up a papa slam :popcorn:
 
how not to bet TEX-NYY O1St5? sabathia is not what he used to be. 19 runs allowed in last4 starts vs TEX. Perez 8 runs in 1 inning vs NYY last time.
 
Maybe declining to risk Berrios’ prized right arm in order to boost the Twins’ 2015 postseason chances was the right move for the club for the long haul, but it’s possible Berrios would have made a real difference starting games in Mike Pelfrey’s place in September. The team didn’t have to wait that long, either; he could have been promoted straight from Double-A to the majors as early as June. With his mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, Berrios will get his chance to make an impact this year, though the Twins might want to delay his free agency by sending him back to Triple-A for the first few weeks. Once he is promoted, he has the potential to become the Twins’ best pitcher right away and become an immediate factor in mixed leagues.
Updated Apr. 26: Twins purchased the contract of RHP Jose Berrios from Triple-A Rochester. Ervin Santana (back) and Kyle Gibson were both placed on the disabled list Tuesday afternoon. Berrios will make his major league debut on Wednesday against the Indians and could stick around a while if things go well. The 21-year-old top prospect had a 1.06 ERA in three starts this season at the Triple-A level. He registered a 2.87 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 175/38 K/BB ratio in 166 1/3 innings last year between Double-A and Triple-A.
 
arrieta is a beast off a complete game shut out. U is 4-1 last 5 when off a shut out in 9 innings
 
arieta off 2 straight quality starts: 17-0. of course line is prohibitive. so run line-1.5 or nothing

starter = Jake Arrieta and s:QS and ss:QS and date >= 20150730
SU:17-0 (4.12, 100.0%) avg line: -203.7 / 183.4 on / against: +$1,700 / -$1,700 ROI: +51.1% / -100.0%
RL:16-1 (2.62, 94.1%) avg line: 105.6 / -116.4 on / against: +$1,778 / -$1,894 ROI: +94.9% / -89.0%
OU:6-9-2 (-0.24, 40.0%) avg total: 7.1 over / under: -$385 / +$270 ROI: -20.2% / +14.6%

<tbody>
</tbody>
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team5.510.10.73.59.811.02.57.5
Opp1.45.20.61.89.48.03.55.3

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
Only real issue is playing off a shutout but think the Cubs get the job done.
I thought after his only complete game shut out he gave up 4 runs. Not correct?
 
for the rest of the day i'm liking

Mets TT over 4.5 +100

Moscot sucks. He walks to many guys. He gives up too many home runs. The mets are a HR hitting team (4th in the league in HRs) and Dale Scott isn't going to help matters for Moscot. He shouldnt go too far in the game.... then comes in the Cincy BP, worst in the majors right now.


TB ML -116

Basically a variation of what HappyKane is doing on blankets... fading public underdogs.... tampa was a play yesterday and is again today

besides that,

Tillman w/ Conroy

Year-by-Year: Chris Conroy

Click year to see all splits · SHARE using Permanent Link

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[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]G[/TH]
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[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]GF[/TH]
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[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SHO[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SV[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]H[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]R[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]ER[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HR[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]IBB[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]SO[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]HBP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]BK[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip, align: center"]WP[/TH]
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[TH="class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center"]WHIP[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SO9[/TH]
[TH="class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center"]SO/W[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2011[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]19[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]10.1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2014[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72.00[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9.0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.33[/TD]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]2015[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.357[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4.00[/TD]
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[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Career Total[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].000[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17.28[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.840[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8.6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.14[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

just remember I hate taking sides in bases


Zona TT o4.5 -115 & Stl/Zona o9 -105


Same thing as the past few games. Roof open, warm, wind blowing out to right... waino hasnt been his old self this season and giving up 3 runs to SD might give him solace but doesn't impress me. GL giving up all those fly ball tonight.... I really don't know what to expect from Corbin. He has struggled at home so far this season. Tom Hallion doesn't hurt either



wanted to take the redsox tt over because of the wind blowing out but norris has had good starts at fenway and the team total of o4.5 -145 just looks scary and looks like bait.... too big of a public play for my liking.... gonna pass
 
Last edited:
Really the only things keeping me off Cincy are the bullpen issues and no Bruce. I don't think Harvey's a 2:1 guy, and we barely know Moscot. Reds kind of suck, but they don't Braves suck. They pepper the line-up with MLB hitters.
 
tuck321 said:
Only real issue is playing off a shutout but think the Cubs get the job done.
I thought after his only complete game shut out he gave up 4 runs. Not correct?
Click to expand...

Arrieta is 4-1 SU after a complete game shut out (9IP). you are right in one instance he allowed 4 runs but for the four remaining ones he allowed 0,0,1 and 1 runs.
 
No one in the game is dealing like Arrietta, but I just don't have much interest at the price. See Kersh last night for an example. And I believe in Kershaw's prior start they went to extras against the lowly Braves. (I was on Atlanta.) Even his run line is juiced to shit. It's Milwaukee money line or nothing.
 
COL ML 1St 5/ DAvidson favors Home teams with righties in DAY games. Nicasio: 1St inning ERA=6.41 and 1.60 WHIP in 4 days rest. gonna take COL ML 1St inning
 
Slim pickings today. Played Washington U7.5, Dodgers U6.5 small & Baltimore O4.5 1st 5. Spent today's lunch money on White Sox/O8.5 @ 3.23/1.
 
I played under in Washington, so this observation (guess) is a bit contradictory to that play, but Roark seems to be a bounce candidate. Guy has had some really good starts in his career, and he's coming off his career best, but I don't recall him stringing them together. I do know that he's frequently added and dropped in fantasy leagues the last three years, so there must be something to it. Don't think he's the type to gem it up for a month.
 
tipyerbartender said:
I played under in Washington, so this observation (guess) is a bit contradictory to that play, but Roark seems to be a bounce candidate. Guy has had some really good starts in his career, and he's coming off his career best, but I don't recall him stringing them together. I do know that he's frequently added and dropped in fantasy leagues the last three years, so there must be something to it. Don't think he's the type to gem it up for a month.
Click to expand...
I think Roark was misused last year by Matt Williams, as they had him trying to fill too many different diverse roles. Imo he is better off as a starter, and he seems to thrive on being in a consistent role. Last year he was spot starter, long man, set up in later innings and never had a consistent role and when they did want to start him he had to be stretched out again to handle the work load. I think he will improve this year in a definitive starter's role.
 
Timh said:
I think Roark was misused last year by Matt Williams, as they had him trying to fill too many different diverse roles. Imo he is better off as a starter, and he seems to thrive on being in a consistent role. Last year he was spot starter, long man, set up in later innings and never had a consistent role and when they did want to start him he had to be stretched out again to handle the work load. I think he will improve this year in a definitive starter's role.
Click to expand...

The only thing that sucks for Roark is that Dusty is now his manager. Dusty is the worst at managing his pitchers...he misuses and over works them more than anyone in the game.
 
I like how he's the box of chocolates of pitchers. Sometimes he pitches to contact and pitches a gem. Then he strikes out 16 Twins. And sometimes you take a bite and you get that orange or pink gooey shit in there.
 
Lareux said:
The only thing that sucks for Roark is that Dusty is now his manager. Dusty is the worst at managing his pitchers...he misuses and over works them more than anyone in the game.
Click to expand...

Dusty thankfully eased up on his starters during his Cincy tenure, but still showed his old-school ways by leading all of baseball in sacrifice bunts during that time and was not very saber friendly, to say the least. And don't get me started about some of his lineups during his time in Cincy. That said, it's hard for me to hate on Dusty. I'd love to play for him.

View attachment 40792
 
Very telling metric there Grind, and shows that he learned from his mistakes imo..in the days of Prior and Wood.
 
nbafan88 said:
Not enough activity in these discussion threads so I figured to a weekly thread... if y'all disagree we can switch it back whenever


looking at the afternoon game we have the giants who I have looked at being a very good day team the past few years... but they are headed out east after today so could make some for quick at bats.
Click to expand...


Thanks for taking the Bulls by the Horn man :shake:
 
For those looking for info on today's first time starters.

http://www.sportswagers.ca/MLB-callups/

Michael Fulmer (RHP - DET)
With Shane Greene unable to make his next start, the Tigers called up their No. 1 prospect, Michael Fulmer. Fulmer is a 6'3", 210-pound right-hander. He throws a plus, mid-90s mph sinking fastball, a hard slider which can play up and is a legit swing and miss pitch, an improving change-up and occasional soft curve. He could stand to improve some with his ability to get ahead in the count, but he continues to make strides with his overall command. Throw that all together with an above-average ground-ball lean and a strong, tall frame, and Fulmer looks every bit the part of a MLB starter. He doesn't quite have the stuff yet to be a No. 1 pitcher but that can change. For now, Fulmer can be a nice mid-rotation starter for the team. So far in 2016 in Triple-A, Fulmer has had good command in 15.1 innings but it is a bit concerning to see three HR’s already. He has also dealt with health injuries in his career (including elbow issues that cut short his 2014 season). When healthy, he has been a solid performer with good mound presence. However, Detroit may well have one of the most talent-starved farm systems out there meaning their choices to replace Greene are very limited. They had to being up someone and while Fulmer has the potential, the move to bring him up might be premature.
In six seasons in the minors, Fulmer’s ERA is 3.21 with a 1.26 WHIP in 398 innings. What we don’t like, however, is that Fulmer has only 15.1 innings at Triple-A level so he essentially makes the jump from Double-A to the majors. It’s been done before but you might want to proceed with caution if you’re thinking of jumping on the Tigers against the Twins tonight (April 29).
2015 STATS: Erie (AA) – 6g, 6gs, 4-1, 2.84 ERA, 31.2 IP, 2.0 BB/9, 9.0 K’s/9, 4 HR, .231 oppBA
2015 STATS: Binghamton (AA) – 15g, 15gs, 6-2, 1.88 ERA, 86.0 IP, 2.4 BB/9, 8.7 K’s/9, 3 HR, .227 oppBA
------------------------------------
Sean Manaea (LHP - OAK)
With his manager saying he expects him to be up "for the long haul," Oakland called up 24-year-old Sean Manaea to make his major league debut tonight (April 29). The former 2013 first-rounder needed very little time to climb the minors, going from Rookie ball to High-A to Double-A last year. Now he has 18 IP in Triple-A this year where he put up a 21-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio facing 73 batters in three games started. Oakland's No. 2 prospect this year, and the overall No. 78 in the one top 100 list, Manaea is a 6'5", 245-pound lefty with a plus fastball that he throws on a downhill plane. He is especially dominant when he can repeat his delivery, but he needs more work on his consistency. His slider has the potential to be plus, too, but his change-up is fringy for now. He was making short work of the Pacific Coast League batters who were hitting just .232 against him while he had a strikeout rate of 10.5 K’s/9 while posting a 2.0 BB/9. His career hr/9 mark is just 0.5, so that shouldn't be an issue for him. His ceiling is high, but he needs to further develop that third pitch and to be more consistent with his slider in order to reach that ceiling. In just over two minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.82 with a 1.25 WHIP in 214.0 IP. Manaea has shot through the minor league system with relative ease and he’s very likely going to be a great starter for years to come. Those of you in fantasy keeper leagues should grab him quickly if he’s available. We’re very likely going to play him tonight as a pooch at home against the strikeout prone Astros.
2015 STATS: Midland (AA) – 7g, 7gs, 6-0, 2.32 ERA, 42.2 IP, 3.2 BB/9, 10.8 K’s/9, 3 HR, .218 oppBA
 
Dee Gordon suspended 80 games for PED...he found out in Spring Training, played under appeal, but finally dropped appeal last night after the game. Marlins coming off huge revenge sweep over LAD for Mgr Mattingly, but the mood was really somber when Gordon dropped the appeal and told his teammates about the suspension.

Tough, tough game for MIA to be up for today in MIL.
 
play ball said:
Dee Gordon suspended 80 games for PED...he found out in Spring Training, played under appeal, but finally dropped appeal last night after the game. Marlins coming off huge revenge sweep over LAD for Mgr Mattingly, but the mood was really somber when Gordon dropped the appeal and told his teammates about the suspension.

Tough, tough game for MIA to be up for today in MIL.
Click to expand...
Agree. I'm not real big on motivational angles for MLB but with that, two pitchers who project almost dead even and Miami losing their top of the lineup catalyst I played the Brewers.

Also on Angels, Minnesota, Oakland and Washington team total O4 -105. Today's lunch money spent on Colo/O8.5 at 3.25/1. It better win, I'm getting hungry.
 
Have sympathy for the Oakland bet but their last 2 starters lasted a combined 5.2 innings and Houston had yesterday off. Still thinking
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
Dusty thankfully eased up on his starters during his Cincy tenure, but still showed his old-school ways by leading all of baseball in sacrifice bunts during that time and was not very saber friendly, to say the least. And don't get me started about some of his lineups during his time in Cincy. That said, it's hard for me to hate on Dusty. I'd love to play for him.

View attachment 40792
Click to expand...

Good stuff, thanks. I'm not a Dusty hater either, I love the guy, he's just been notorious for over using his pitchers. Seems he's gotten better, but earlier this week he left Strasburg out there a bit too long, and instead of taking him out as soon as a guy got on base (it was the 7th or 8th inning), he left him in to allow 2 guys on base and then a 3 run jack to tie the game.
 
They need Revere back hitting leadoff, and Taylor needs to be down in the lineup 6 or 7 and where he is better suited to hit as opposed to leadoff. They had similar probs last year when Span was injured, just no other suitable leadoff guys. Tend to agree on Werth, and he may find his ABs going way down when Revere returns. Werth slow starter in general, hope to see his bat get better soon.
 
It is harder to let a guy go that long in the hitters parks Dusty has been in the last few stints, particularly against AL lineups. Also more difficult now than when he had stud pitchers like he did in SF.

Sad I cannot find my Dusty Clown thread
 
Iglesias scratched for the Reds. Rookie Adleman starting...... Thoughts on this guy? Thinking Pitt TT over
 
Looking for info on Adelman. Getting almost nothing from baseball reference. Any day ERA or really anything would be nice?
 
Cole Hamels:

[TABLE="class: inline-table, width: 561"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="align: left"]PITCH[/TH]
[TH]2009-2015[/TH]
[TH]2016[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD="align: left"]All fastballs[/TD]
[TD]52.7%[/TD]
[TD]42.3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD="align: left"]Changeups[/TD]
[TD]24.9%[/TD]
[TD]22.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD="align: left"]Cutters[/TD]
[TD]12.7%[/TD]
[TD]20.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: last"]
[TD="align: left"]Curveballs[/TD]
[TD]9.5%[/TD]
[TD]13.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
May 1
Tim Adleman (RHP – CIN)
It’s been a long road to the majors for Tim Adleman. He was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles out of Georgetown in the 24th round of the 2010 draft, and was out of the organization after the 2011 season. After spending the next two seasons in the Independent League, the Reds signed him before the 2014 season. Adleman had been out of affiliated baseball for two years prior to 2014. However, after two years of reinventing himself in independent leagues, Adleman found himself on the roster of the Bakersfield Blaze, the Reds’ High-A affiliate to begin the 2014 regular season. Adleman spent the 2014 season pitching for Bakersfield and Double-A Pensacola. In 38 overall appearances, 32 of which came out of the bullpen, Adleman went 3-9 with a 3.72 ERA over 87 innings, striking out 77 while only walking 27. He had a breakout season last year in Double-A Pensacola, posting a 2.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 150 innings, earning an appearance in the Southern League All-Star Game. In three starts at Triple-A this season, the 28-year-old is 2-0 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 13 strikeouts and four walks over 17 innings.
Adelman went through a rigorous strengthening training program this past off-season and it appears to have paid off. His fastball is up from 90.1 MPH to 94 MPH. It exhibits late life, making it difficult to elevate. He’s always pitching low in the zone, which creates a lot of grounders. His secondary pitches however are considered to be average at best and until those improve, he may find the going difficult at this level. Still, it’s hard to ignore his bulldog mentality because he was on the verge of quitting baseball altogether but loves the game so much that he didn’t want to give up. It’ll be an emotional day for this 28-year-old rookie, who will be living out his dream today to pitch in the majors. Is he worth a bet? Maybe not but he’s facing Jeff Locke in Pittsburgh and Locke is not worthy of being a big favorite so there could be some value here if you want to gamble.
----------------------------------------
 
Why is the Philly-Cle game at 2:35 today? Odd start time. (Could fuck with some circadian rhythms, nba.)
 
Eovaldi bad off a shut out win and on 5 days rest. red sox-yankees usually lead to overs in fenway. Price not exceptional vs yankees. BOS-NYY O1St5 for me
 
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