March 16-22 NBA bets/thoughts

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
WILL TRY TO UPDATE PICKS AND RECORD IN POST 2

Why not. Bored while studying for midterms. Seems the forum is getting kinda empt, figured I'll post couple picks and track them. Unit system from 1-3. Probably take a break when I lose 40 units or win 40 units

Plays for March 16
Charlotte -7- 2 units W
Portland -6- 1 unit W
Denver -13- 2 unitsW
Charlotte, Portland, Denver ML Parlay (-102)- 2 units W
2nd H New Orleans -3 -105 2 units L
2nd H OKC +2 -105- 1 unit W


Chalky day and chalky part of season as we head into playoffs.

Portland off a bad loss and should bounceback. They can't relaly start 0-62 on this road trip as they gotta goto cleveland soon and dont wanna face a losing trip. Wouldn't normally play it, but Memphis off a win and come home off a 4 game road trip. Not in love with this one, but again its medium chalk with decent team that should ant the win more than the bad team happy off a win.

Charlotte- rod steel has a good writeup on that one. Huge game for them, and I'm not so sure that they're slumping as many are calling it. Still a solid team- much better at home. The losses to SA and Houston- excuseable- competed but lost to better teams. Minneosta- I'll call it the hangover. That and Charlotte really isn't too great a road team regardless. Simlar to Portland- better team thats more desperate of a W vs a bad team off a win. Playoff implications huge for this one for charlotte

Denver- pretty simple. Huge chalk, but I'd hit myself if I didn't play it. Jersey offense revolves around vc and harris. when VC was playing injured- they slumped. Fora team that depends on 2 players so heavily, having Harris out really hurts. NJ is desperate for a W, one they NEEDED yesterday and almost got. They courageously battled back in the fourth and should have won if not for FTs and a dagger buzzer beating heart breaker. Now they fly on a b2b to Mile high, likely disheartened and dissapointed. They blew what may prove to be their shot at the playoffs. DOn't think Denver will give much sympathy as Jersye handed them their worst loss of the season earlier this yr and Denver is the type of seek vengeance. Last game of a homestand for Denver and theres no doubt they win this- and I'm betting by over 20.

GL tonight. Not much thoughts on the other games. Durant back should make OKC back to cover machines, but I have a sour taste in my mouth from fading SA. That said, OKC is a live dog for you value players
 
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March 20 Picks
Indiana -1 -105- 1 unit
-Indiana -2 -115- 1 unit
Charlotte +1/ML- 2 units
1st H OKC +2.5 -115- 1.5 unit
1st H Minnesota +6 -105- 1.5 units
Minnesota +11.5- 1.5 units
Memphis +11.5- 1 unit
2nd Q Memphis +3 -115- 2 units
--2nd Q Memphis +175- .5 unit


March 19 Picks
Atlanta -6- 1.5 units W
LAL -13- 2 units L
Home Teams ML parlay: (around -140) 2.107 to win 1.5 units W

3rd Q LAL -4.5 -115- 2 units W
2nd H LAL -8 -115- 1 unit L

day
3-2
+1.65

March 18 Picks
Charlotte -11- 1.5 units W
Oklahoma City -2- 1 unit L
Milwaukee +5/5.5- 1.5 units L
Houston -9- 1.5 units L
Phoenix -6- 1 unit W

2nd H Charlotte -6.5 +100- 1 unit W
2nd H NY/NJN OVER 107 -105- 1.5 units L
2nd H Denver -7 -105- 1.5 units W
2nd H Houston -4.5 -105- 1 unit L

March 18 so far
4-5
-2.225 units


March 17 Picks
Cleveland -6- 1 unit L
Chicago +2- 1 unit W
Utah Jazz -15.5 -105- 2 units L
LA Lakers -10- 1 unit L
Cleveland, LAL, Utah ML parlay- 3 to win 2 units L

2nd H Atlanta -4.5 -105- 1 unit W
2nd H Utah -6.5 -105- 1 unit L
2nd H Clippers +.5 -120- 2 units W

updated record
15-13
+.975 units


I've neever been bale to keep a record like this for a longer than a couple weeks. WIll try
 
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2nd H New Orleans -3- 2 units

Think Houston's fight without yao ends and NOLA pulls away. Houston hannin in with 3s vs New Orleans FTs. Houston couldnt take NOLA in their worst qtr (2nd) so no reason to thin kthey can take em in New Orleans better quarters vs Houston's worse ones. Think CP3 plays the entire 2nd H unless it gets out of hand
 
SF_capper said:
2nd H New Orleans -3- 2 units

Think Houston's fight without yao ends and NOLA pulls away. Houston hannin in with 3s vs New Orleans FTs. Houston couldnt take NOLA in their worst qtr (2nd) so no reason to thin kthey can take em in New Orleans better quarters vs Houston's worse ones. Think CP3 plays the entire 2nd H unless it gets out of hand
Click to expand...

I like the play bro but passed. I am worried Tyson may get pulled 2nd half due to his ankle being messed up.They are showing him everytime in timeouts and he is in some pain. But I do like the play bro and pulling for you.
 
nawlins51 said:
I like the play bro but passed. I am worried Tyson may get pulled 2nd half due to his ankle being messed up.They are showing him everytime in timeouts and he is in some pain. But I do like the play bro and pulling for you.
Click to expand...

shit- didn't know that. hoepfully he's ok
 
ok thoughts on the games:

Cleveland I guess should be taken at medium numbers at home. Would love 5, but doubt we get it. I cannot see them losing. Yes, they're slumping, er more just uninterested and bored. An eastern conference challenge should at least spark their interests. Orlando beat em earlier this yr, so gotta think Cleveland takes it here. Cleveland deadlocked with LA for number 1 record, and facing a real potential challenge should get the juices outta cleveland to respect orlando and beat them by 10. Like cleveland, not sure how I plan to play it

Dallas/detroit it not pretty. I hate the scheduling for Dallas- 4 road game, home- then off on the road again. Also hate that Dallas smashed at Detroit earlier this yr. These two things, combined with Dallas not really playing their best ball minus Howard should be signs for Detroit, but I cannot. Surprised it seems that no one is talking about Detroit's injuries. They're playing with 2 allstars!- on papers their two best players. Is it any wonder, without sheed they're 1-2- beating only Toronto and losing to NY and Memphis. I so want to play Dallas, just to fade detroit while they're getting line respect and sheed is out. Dallas still trying to hold onto that spot. May not be able to in this spot with dallas though... maybe a pass

Chicago bet is a simple one to me. Chicago at home is WORLDS better, and Boston bigger games on their mind. They play Miami at home 2m- a big game for them. They might not be able to use all of their strength to take this game. Chicago to avoid the season sweep. I do worry that rondo will jsut lock down Rose and make Chicago useless, but I'll hope he doesn't. 1 unit play for me, as I thought it was going down, but was wrong

Love Utah- posted a couple thoughts in discussion thread. Will be on them somehow- even if it means laying the big spread. JP suggests waiting for HT, but I fear that we wont have the chance and can definitely see Utah up 12 at half on way to a 20 pt W

LA should handle here. Still fighting with CLeveland for HCA and finally get an EC opponent. Philly knows if they want a winning road trip, they gotta pick their spots. exerting all their effort on the front end of a b2b to lose to the lakers is not a good spot to try. 2m at phoenix is their spot. Decently rested LA squad should see Farmar and Vujacic in the whole 4th to seal this one

so looking at (in order): Utah, LA, Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas
-thinking something like a unit Utah, a unit LAL, a unit Chicago
-then I should get a ML parlay of the 1st 3 for +money, so maybe I'll hit that for 2 units
-and think harder about dallas
 
Good to see ya divol. I'm gonna try to have threads more often, so your thoughts would be really appreciated
added that unit on Utah
 
The Josh smith 3 should be the dagger to Sac. Strong comeback yesterday and lost, probably no heart to fight back here
2nd H Atlanta -4.5 -105- 1 unit
 
wouldve been nice to see dwight foul mo at the end. eh lose cleveland -6 but ML hits as the hard part of the parlay
 
2m will be a light day:
Charlotte OKC and Milwaukee, each for 1 unit

not much in a discussion mood right now
peueto rico up 5-3 mid of 9th
utah up 23 2 min left, up 18 18 second left
LA up 2 with foul to give, 6 seconds left

just brutal finishes in what seems like all my bets
 
along with OKC, lookin at Houston and Indiana. Indiana hoping for +money which should be realistic, and Houston hoping for under -7 which would be a miracle really. -9 may be more realistic, and -10 is probably too expensive even for a bet I think Houston dominates. Houston/Charlotte/NY seems to be an even money ML parlay, although im not sure I want NY in it. Could add Phoenix, but they scare me.
 
well yesterday was dissapointing. hurt financially from these as well as some tails in other sports. Not feelin great, but at least for NBA, despite a horrible day, I can take some positive from it. I don't want to say my picks were "right" because clearly they lost, but I can take some pride in saying that at least the games played out as I saw it:
Chicago- close win
Utah- blowout. Wash's starters benhed early to prep for 2m. Vegas did a good job of overpricing this, but I stubbornly still played and paid- in this case in the form of a backdoor .5 pt loss
Atlanta 2nd H- very solid. They should conviningly on thursday as well
Cleveland- again, feel decent about it. I had more on the ML in a parlay which I felt was set so long as cleveland hit. Saw lebron taking over the 4th, and it happened. a live with the 2 pt noncover
LAL- Ariza was an idiot for not fouling. what can I say? I had them in the ML parlay and felt it had over 90% shot hitting. Everythingthing went wrong for that one. Never should have played the -10, but whatever

ok onto today's games:
 
Miami @ Boston
On the surface, Miami looks easy. Boston lost Powe, and now are without powe, scal, davis, and KG leaving only Moore and Perk as big men. Miami off a bad loss and had 3 days rest. However, something doesn't "feel" right about this game. Miami beat them a week ago, and I find it hard to see Boston losing to the same team twice in a less than 2 weeks. Can see both sides of the argument, so maybe a pass

Sac @ Charlotte
Another huge game for Charlotte, and Sac now should be tired. 3/4 after battling back against teams to fall short. Big playoff implications for Charlotte in a game I cannot see them losing. Brown should have them playing D vs Sac's lack of it which should be an easy cover

Portland @ Indiana
Kind of like Indiana. 2 days rest and 3 games back. This game almost seems like a GOY for them as far as effort goes. They blew the game at Portland 2 weeks ago and gave it away in the end. Granger is back, played 1 rusty game and now has had practice and rest. I expect a fully motivated game by Indiana. I do worry that Portland plays at cleveland the next day. Do they try to rest for the cavs thinking they have a shot at handing cleveland a loss, or try extra hard today knowing they dont have a shot the next day. I'd imagine off a win with cleveland on deck, itd be difficult to concentrate on Indiana, but I could be wrong. Likely plays Indiana ML as they should be dogs and are still a dangerous ass home dog

NJN @ NYK
NY is a bit overpriced, but I may still lay it with them. Lost at NJ a bit over a week ago and realy shouldnt lose here. Not sure if I can lay such a large numbers with NY tho. NY is really improving with that road trip and have had 2 days rest. Harris is huge for them and they should struggle with him. Lean NY

Gotta think New Orleans bounces back, but I cannot lay 12 with this sad team. Tey're really not playin well right now, so although their due for a blowout and Minnesota should invtie it, I cant bet it

Like OKC to smash Chicago off their extremely emotional W. CHicago still hasnt won on the road since the trade, and I should be able to et just -2 to see it continue. OKC should be spreadbeaters again with durant back, and showed signs of it vs SA

Denver primed for a letdown and this game may be it. I might bet Memphis, but gotta see. Not much more to a memphis bet other than feel for a denver letdown off a couple nice home wins over inferior opponents

Orlando hsould be flat off losing to the King late. They have not much to play for (2nd seed?) while Milwaukee is fighting hrd for that 8 seed. middle of a long nice homestand for miwaukee so rest should not be a problem.

Houston should roll. Want to bet them at under -9.5- please dont open it like Houston -11.5

Phoenix should roll here as well. Philly not really playing wel, just unforced errors and missed shots by LA along with crazy shooitng from Philly. Hard for me to bet on Phoenix, but might just do it here. Them smashing GS proved to me they still want that 8th seed

wash @ clippers. I guess wash to fade LAC -7
 
no murphy no bet on Indiana for me. still lean that way, but without their top rebounder vs portland- not good

card: (will also copy in post 2)
Charlotte -11- 1.5 units
Oklahoma City -2- 1 unit
Milwaukee +5/5.5- 1.5 units
Houston -9- 1.5 units
Phoenix -6- 1 unit
 
SF_capper said:
Sac @ Charlotte
Another huge game for Charlotte, and Sac now should be tired. 3/4 after battling back against teams to fall short. Big playoff implications for Charlotte in a game I cannot see them losing. Brown should have them playing D vs Sac's lack of it which should be an easy cover
Click to expand...

First of all just want to say I really enjoy reading your thoughts on the game. Usually have a lot of stuff I haven't considered when making picks. For this game though I was looking through their head-to-head dating back to 2004 and noticed that Charlotte's largest margin of victory against the Kings home or away is the 7 they won by a few weeks ago? Does that worry you at all?
 
ousoxfan87 said:
First of all just want to say I really enjoy reading your thoughts on the game. Usually have a lot of stuff I haven't considered when making picks. For this game though I was looking through their head-to-head dating back to 2004 and noticed that Charlotte's largest margin of victory against the Kings home or away is the 7 they won by a few weeks ago? Does that worry you at all?
Click to expand...

sorry couldnt reply in time. Not worreid about past history because Charlotte is a new expansion team and this is their best yr in team history while this is Sac's worst in recent yrs. Charlotte needs gimmes like this to make a push for the 1st playoff birth in their history and I think they get it
 
Played Charlotte 2nd H -6.5 (+100)- 1 unit

Very similar game to yesterday for Sac. Down big- cut into it- fall apart 2nd H
 
bleh. 2nd H didn't provide what I had hoped. Down 11 2nd H line of NY -8. I can see them covering, but things would really have to go their way. Not sure I gamble on that and essentially ask them to battle back from down 11 at half to win, altho this is a nJ squad that could give in. NY tends to get hot for one half a game and that obviouly wasnt the 1st H. Went outside my norm and play a total

2nd H NY/NJN OVER 107 -105- 1 unit

think NY battles and this turns into a tight game. I think NY will battle back with 3fest- have take a small small lead to watch that lead go back and forth in a good game in the garden. May still ad NY. considering it. Carter seems to be possessed as this is a big game for them
 
bleh. I saw a situation, and took what I thought was the higher percentage of Orlando's mindsight. Apparently they do NOT have a hangover and DO want the 2 seed
 
If Charlotte an cover this spread despite Mccants deciding that he'll have the game of his life- thank you gambling gods
 
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