March 16-22 NBA bets/thoughts

jasocurt said:
SF...you like DET tonight?
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Played Houston -9 for 1.5 units

The score yesterday was deceiving in that Dallas controlled it all game and rreally there was no shot at detroit winning. Dallas was in a horrible spot and detroit still couldn't take it- cant blame them. They're without 3 allstars. Think Houston routs em
 
Playing Denver 2nd H -7 -105- 1.5 units

don't even feel 1.5 units strong about this one, but cmon- its the grizzlies. I know thats a square ass comment, but its serious. Denver beats bad teams, and loses to good ones. Very simple formula, and don't see why it changes here
 
gotta pat myself on the back for this charlotte game. Almost EXACTLY like Atlanta's gamer yesterday. Charlotte takes a medium lead into half, Sac battles hard and ties it up, only to lose it all and wayyy more in the 4th when the real teams come to play
 
bad day. What can I do but keep pluggin away hopin for the best...

Chalk day although Portland should cover
Lakers -13- 1.5 units
Atlanta -6- 1.5 units

Atlanta exteds their win streak. Rest and chillin at home creates great things and Atlanta has it. Matchup wise Josh Smith should at the very least be able to limit Dirk to average numbers. Dallas with a winnable game 2m, and need to start being strategic of when they bring it and when they don't. They can't try their hearts out today to come up short and risk having energy gone the next day as Phoenix is winning and on their tails. Dallas NOT impressing at all lately while Atlanta at home playing hard for HC (just to probably lose to Wade)

130-102 LA wins
They let teams come back on them and it bit them last game. Kobe off a HORRIBLE night where he got outclutched. No way GS hangs around for over 4 minutes.
 
what's keeping you off port? lazy spot and hungover crowd for cleveland and no wally or wallace. i'm just hoping they win the damn game
 
this game and new jersey on the road will probably be the only two times i'll fade the cavs for the rest of the year.
 
broadwayjoe said:
what's keeping you off port? lazy spot and hungover crowd for cleveland and no wally or wallace. i'm just hoping they win the damn game
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Bookmaker hasn't let me bet it yet :) hoping they keep the 9.5 that was there

also, I usually don't like polaying dogs that have NO chance of winning
 
broadwayjoe said:
what's keeping you off port? lazy spot and hungover crowd for cleveland and no wally or wallace. i'm just hoping they win the damn game
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was gonna play Portland, no longer.

The Trail Blazers beat the Indiana Pacers 95-85 on Wednesday, but in the process lost two starters to injury.
Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge suffered a grade-one concussion early in the fourth quarter and did not accompany the team to Cleveland, instead checking into an Indianapolis hospital for observation. He is expected to rejoin the team in Cleveland before Thursday's game against the Cavaliers, but the team has listed him as doubtful to play.

Also, starting small forward Nicolas Batum suffered a sprained left ankle with 4:02 left in the game when he landed on the foot of Indiana's Danny Granger. Batum could not put pressure on the foot and had to be carried off the court and into the locker room by teammate Rudy Fernandez and athletic trainer Jay Jensen. X-Rays were negative and the team listed him as questionable for the Cavaliers game. However, as he iced his foot after the game in the locker room, Batum told me he doubted he could play Thursday.

Aldridge suffered his concussion when he lowered his head on a drive to the basket. His right temple crashed into the chest of Jeff Foster, causing Aldridge to lose the ball and crumple to the ground. Aldridge said he thinks he was momentarily knocked out. After the game he was hazy and complained of feeling uncomfortable.

No aldridge, no bet for me. Not saying Portland still doesn't cover, but don't like getting involved with games with injuries. There are too many other games that do NOT involve me guessing how the adapts to the changes (ie: rotations, plays, rotations, shots, etc.) I could be wrong, but don't see how any of the home teams lose today. In fact, just for action, and I seriously cannot see it happening another way:

Home Teams ML parlay: (around -140) 2.107 to win 1.5 units

I know about the TNT thursday winners being 36-1 ATS this yr and I worry about that alot, but with this heavy chalk, I have a hard time seeing it no work out. I Love LA to win by 45- worst case 17. I Love Atlanta to win by 15- worst case 5. and um if Portland without lamarcus win at cleveland, then props to them. I lose.
 
omg. up 59-77 with 3:34 to go

GS goes on a 12-0 run
1 minute left up 77-71. I will be in shock if I lose this 3rd Q :(
 
Hard to do much. Kobe is having a worse game tonight then last game. Starting to wonder if he has some organic problem that he is trying to play through. He is 9 of 25. He has taken 1 free throw. He has 4 turnovers and 2 asts. Whatever the problem is, the Lakers are unplayable till he is sat down or heals.
 
tuck321 said:
Hard to do much. Kobe is having a worse game tonight then last game. Starting to wonder if he has some organic problem that he is trying to play through. He is 9 of 25. He has taken 1 free throw. He has 4 turnovers and 2 asts. Whatever the problem is, the Lakers are unplayable till he is sat down or heals.
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... and this vs GS's "Defense"
 
some bets in:

Indiana -1 -105- 1 unit
Charlotte +1/ML- 1.5 units
1st H OKC +2.5 -115- 1 unit
1st H Minnesota +6 -105- 1 unit
Minnesota +11.5- 1.5 units
 
Thanks Captain Crunch. BOL today. Found a gem in Memphis 2nd Q and played
Memphis +11.5 -105- 1 unit
Memphis 2nd Q +3 -115- 1.5 units
Memphis 2nd Q ML +175- risking 1 unit
 
now onto mini-writeups

Indiana- last chance for Indiana? Maybe that has passed, and maybe they know it, but I don't think so yet. Praying Murphy plays as if he does Indiana should win. Dallas is not in a good state right now in large part thanks to no Josh Howard. Granger is back and healthy and if they get Murphy back they'll get back to the covering home team we love. 1 unit on Indiana -1, may add a half unit if Murphy is in. Would play this bigger if someone can convince me that Indiana isnt convinced their season is over

Charlotte
Played this two units- 1 at +105 1 at +1. They can't afford to look ahead to a chance a KO sum1 out at home 2m because they are 1.5 back. Of course just because they can't afford to, doesn't mean they won't. But they're pretty good at taking care of teams they're supposed to take care of- ATS numbers in discussion thread. Little ltitle worry that Toronto's last game was getting owned shitless by them in Charlotte, but ehh they're 14-26 ATS (statfox) revenging a loss vs an opponent. Charlotte should win this is similar fashion as their last game

NY @ Sac
gotta be crazy to lay 9 with NY or bet Sac period. passss

Miami @ NJ. With or without wade, I like jersey although Im not sure Ill be able to bet it. I like it without him because I doubt I'll have to lay much of anything and Jersey plays in streaks. Right now they're playing in the streak of "we're makin the playoffs for devin" I like it even with him in because he'll definitely be hindered although the line won't reflect it

OKC
couple decent points in discussion thread and tuck's. Just that OKC got that swag back as home dogs and should be considered any time getting points at home healthy, just as Utah should be considered any time giving pts on the road. Also, if you're gonna fade Utah, do it in the 1st H. Just patterns bet-1.5 unit OKC 1st H +2.5

Memphis @ New Orleans
Probably went a bit overboard here, but what can I do now? Lets see.. NO without tyson and Peja and they cannot play without those two- they are just average with those guys out. Now Memmphis has been hangin with teams real real well while NO been strugglin. 11.5 maybe a bit too many. Now to big part of this is this 2nd Q: New Orleans worst quarter by far, and memphis's best quarter statistically. combine that with getting 3 pts and +170?! its sick and I'm even considering adding to my 1.5 units Memphis 2nd Q +3, 1 unit +170, and 1 unit Memphis +11.5
 
1st H Minnesota +6 -105- 1.5 units, Minnesota +11.5- 1.5 units
Nice situational spot. Minnesota finally playing with an ounce of cohesion while Houston is off a great double OT W which Yao is still probably trying to catch him breath from. Oh add that to Houston's next 2 games being at SA and @ Utah- their two biggest rivalries, and I think we have a pretty good bet with Minnesota looking to avoid a season sweep and Houston sucking 1st H off a str8 up W

Wash @ Denver
honestly havnt looked much into it. just on surface: denver off a lucky comeback W and it may have become just a habit for them- wouldnt wanna lay 14 on that. bu tits fuckin wash so whateevr

Philly @ GS
-go warriors! I cant touch this game, I'm biased
 
this thread may just be cursed, but eh. One play Saturday unless they make this Charlotte line real low- which I doubt. Indiana and Boston should be emotionally exhausted and shouldnt play their A game while Charlotte is playing like a team possessed and Memphis is a bunch of bitches for slipping away that 4th Q.
Chicago +4- 3 units and biggest play of thread
two teams going opposite directions. not much writeup- no heart to
 
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