Hulu's CFL 2019

Hulu said:
BC on the way down as news of the Esks injuries makes the rounds. Still some 4s available out there. If you like it, get on it now.
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Grabbed it and some ml as well when I saw this. Dont think edmonton can take advantage of Leo's weakness on d like the bombers last week

Toronto ml my favorite play of the week though, agree on everything you have with them, too many people are looking at last year and the guys they lost, most of whom were overrated imo
 
Luke Tasker out for the cats. Jaelon Acklin likely gets pulled from the practice roster to dress.

Adding more on Toronto to at better #s to make it a 1.5 unit bet in total. As follows...

0.6*/0.4*/0.5* Toronto +2.5/+3.5/ML -106/-104/+137
 
Food for thought... While Toronto has had an extra week of prep and film from the cats 1st game, what do the cats have to prepare with?

The argonauts have a brand new offense installed by Chapdelaine and they only had Franklin and MBT execute it in the first preseason game. That was the 11am weekday game, untelevised. Im sure there was a camera or two running but the film won’t be great. The second PS game they started scrubs and ran pure vanilla.

Argos definitely have a prep advantage here
 
Hulu said:
Food for thought... While Toronto has had an extra week of prep and film from the cats 1st game, what do the cats have to prepare with?

The argonauts have a brand new offense installed by Chapdelaine and they only had Franklin and MBT execute it in the first preseason game. That was the 11am weekday game, untelevised. Im sure there was a camera or two running but the film won’t be great. The second PS game they started scrubs and ran pure vanilla.

Argos definitely have a prep advantage here
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I'm all over TORONTO MONEYLINE --

I like their roster and advanatges--
 
Simple math--

when you take guys like tanker out of the lineup the team cannot over come that--

same with BC-- where are the catches going to come from?

You cannot win with just BANKS being reliable.
 
What a fucking disaster this week 2 was for me. I never lose in week 2 and here I go 1-3. Just complete misreads all over the place. This is a tough year with so many teams rebuilding substantial parts of their rosters. I should have entered the season with more caution. Sorry guys.

Results after Week 2

Sides 3-4-1 -2.647*
Totals 3-3 -1.28*
2H bets 1-0 +0.50*
Live 1-0 +0.50*

Overall 8-7-1 -2.927*

Advantage over close
Sides: +4 pts
Totals: +10 pts

I'm going to start keeping track of my advantage over closing lines throughout the season. Pretty straightforward although given the importance of the 3, I'll count moves on, off or across the 3 as double. (ex 2.5 to 3 is 1 point. 3.5 to 2.5 is 2 points).
 
Had a ticket to the game yesterday but I didn't even get to go. One of our cats had disappeared for 2 days and came back, barely alive just as I was about to leave. Had to rush him to the emergency vet. 24 hours later he looks like he'll pull through but my credit card is now on life support.
 
Hulu said:
What a fucking disaster this week 2 was for me. I never lose in week 2 and here I go 1-3. Just complete misreads all over the place. This is a tough year with so many teams rebuilding substantial parts of their rosters. I should have entered the season with more caution. Sorry guys.

Results after Week 2

Sides 3-4-1 -2.647*
Totals 3-3 -1.28*
2H bets 1-0 +0.50*
Live 1-0 +0.50*

Overall 8-7-1 -2.927*

Advantage over close
Sides: +4 pts
Totals: +10 pts

I'm going to start keeping track of my advantage over closing lines throughout the season. Pretty straightforward although given the importance of the 3, I'll count moves on, off or across the 3 as double. (ex 2.5 to 3 is 1 point. 3.5 to 2.5 is 2 points).
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IT's NOT HOW YOU START- ITS HOW YOU FINISH
 
Hulu said:
Had a ticket to the game yesterday but I didn't even get to go. One of our cats had disappeared for 2 days and came back, barely alive just as I was about to leave. Had to rush him to the emergency vet. 24 hours later he looks like he'll pull through but my credit card is now on life support.
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I hope your cat and you guys are doing good!
 
I like overreactions, my site already has the Ham under at 58* -05.

Any other unders you like my man?
 
inZane said:
I like overreactions, my site already has the Ham under at 58* -05.

Any other unders you like my man?
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I made the total in Winnipeg 57 so it’s a tad high but both those teams can score so I dont know if I can touch it. It’s just not the kind of matchup that screams under.

54 in sask seems a couple points high too but I have very low confidence both those teams right now so I’ll wait and see.

This is such a strange start to the year. I don’t recall a time when I had so little confidence in so many teams. Might as well be capping the Mexican football league.
 
1* Winnipeg -3.5 -110

Was going to try and wait this out until we have confirmation that Chris Matthews is playing but I see it moving to 4 at some books so getting on it now. I think it’s 80/20 he plays.

Winnipeg is home and healthy and has had 2 weeks to prepare for this Edmonton team. I dont think the Esks are as good as their initial 2 victories have made them look.
 
Leans on 3 additional plays. I really feel like there’s value on both Montreal and Toronto getting 14 and 13.5 respectively but I can’t do it after the debacle last week.

Also feel like the over 52.5 in Calgary looks good. BCs offensive line sputtered last week but Calgary doesn’t have the defensive line depth to do what Edmonton did to them. But can Jurious Jackson smarten up and call some runs or any sort of short passing game to take advantage? After last week I have no confidence in their ability to adjust their offense to their opponent. No play for now.
 
Hulu, you know the league as well as anybody...entertain me with your opinion here.

If you had to set the season win totals for each CFL team after what you've seen through Week 2, what would the number be for each team? Again, this is assuming what you've seen through this past weekend.
 
Looking back in my notes, here's what I wrote before the season...

Winnipeg 13-5
Calgary 12-6
BC Lions 10-8
Hamilton 10-8
Saskatchewan 8-10
Edmonton 8-10
Toronto 9-9
Ottawa 7-11
Montreal 6-12

-Sask's number was partly based on the fact that Collaros has never played a full season and likely wouldn't this year. Thought it would last longer than 3 plays though.
-I overestimated Calgary's ability to replace an all-star team that they lost in the off-season
-I underestimated Edmonton's ability to do the same. I also underestimated how seemlessly Trevor Harris would fit into their offense.
-I severely underestimated Dominique Davis and the Redblacks coaching staff's ability to shrug off the loss of their OC right before the season.

After 2 weeks here's what I would guess...

Winnipeg 13-5
Calgary 11-7
BC Lions 8-10
Hamilton 11-7
Saskatchewan 8-10
Edmonton 10-8
Toronto 7-11
Ottawa 10-8
Montreal 5-11

These are just off the top of my head based on the relative strengths of the teams as we've seen them so far. Not having access to a book that has season win totals I haven't done the due diligence of looking into the schedule of each to further refine the number.

May I ask what is the genesis of your question? Do you have a book offering win totals?
 
Hulu said:
Breaking: Mike Reilly has shaved his beard. Time to get serious.
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Alternate theories:

-An Edmonton defender ripped it off during one of their 7 sacks and 5 RTP penalties against him last week
-The beard has been moved to the running back's face as a decoy since their offensive line can't stop anyone and they don't have a running game anyway
-The beard was so embarrassed it just left for the XFL
 
bogeynotbirdie said:
good stuff in this thread. do you have a mini write up for the montreal under by chance? looks like some market agreement. wouldn't get too down over the slow start.
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Wish I had some fancy analytics to spout on this one but for me its pretty simple...60 is a really high total, especially in Hamilton. When a total is this high, I look for two teams that can score but in this game I only see one.

We know what Hamilton did last week but that was an anomaly, an aberration. They looked awfully capable but that had more to do with an Argos team that was clearly not ready to start the season. They won't likely do it again this week, thats just the ebb and flow of sports. Additionally, Masoli always plays better on the road. Some day I will look up his home vs road stats and I would be willing to bet 3 units his QBR is significantly better on the road. Why? I have my theories but its been pretty consistent for his whole time in the CFL. The cats will occassionally break into hurry-up but not typically for longer than a play or two and more often play at a medium pace. Given Montreal's total lack of a pass rush, I think 30-35 is a reasonable total for the cats here.

Montreal put up some points in their opener but in reality, Edmonton gifted them that comeback with some late mistakes. Vernon Adams came in and provided a spark to their offense but he's one of those guys that tends to come off the bench and do that. Then when he starts, you remember why he's on the bench. Also, its a small sample size but he is currently the 2nd lowest graded passer for accuracy this year, ahead of only Isaac Harker. VA is not going to come in and no-huddle his way down the field either. I think Montreal knows they won't beat the cats in a shootout and their best option is to slow the game, use their rushing attack and play the field position game. I think they will struggle to hit 24.

Also with Montreal, their offensive line looked very much improved in week 1 but they will likely have to juggle it this week. S Taylor Loeffler and WLB Bo Lokombo are both out and while their replacements, Ty Cranston and Glenn Love are not large dropoffs, they are losing 2 NAT starters there. They have to change up the ratio somewhere and I think at least one of those takes an American off the O-line. That's not going to help it any.
 
With the signing of former Alouette Brendan Dozier, BC is shuffling its secondary. He will start at safety and Anthony Thompson will start at corner over Dominique Terminson.

Also shuffling the offensive line with Brett Boyko hitting the 1 game injured list. He looked absolutely awful in the first 2 games and should probably be benched. Dude couldn't even start in the AAF so I don't know why he's been starting here. Focault will move to RT, Hunter Steward is moving from C to LG so he can't screw up any more snaps and Jean-Simon Roy will be inserted at centre.

The supplemental draft goes tomorrow and on the board is Jake Bennett, a 3 year starter for Colorado St and started in the AAF also. If he drops to BC, I think they would definitely grab him up because he could help their line right away. Toronto may snatch him first though.
 
bogeynotbirdie said:
good stuff in this thread. do you have a mini write up for the montreal under by chance? looks like some market agreement. wouldn't get too down over the slow start.
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J MASOLI is at home--- Thats all you need to know-- He lights it up on the road and stinks at home--

Also since the Ticats won 64-14 last week that means that this week could very well be a MAIL IN EFFORT- Meaning a FREE PASS---

In the CFL you will find that teams off big BLOWOUTS usually relax the next week (except for calgary) and then they suck it up--

After a couple of blowout losses and BAD GAMES like teams like BC and TORONTO had those TEAMS usually respond with what is called a PAY CHEQUE GAME-- They have to show up and earn their PAY CHEQUES, so they often COVER the inflated SPREADS--- Tor and BC could be in the PAY CHEQUE MODE..
 
Hulu said:
Interesting but not surprising. Offences are definitely ahead of defences which is flipped from the usual. Defences will come together and improve throughout the year and we’ll be left with some really high totals to go under.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1143965789386465280
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So far the defences have been garbage-- Nobody is holding anybody to FGOALS anymore--

What is happening is this--

Teams are basically starting entire new defences this season---

Teams cannot generate any pass rush--

Teams are GOING TO THE QUICK PASSING GAME-- EDMONTON and Winnipeg and Hamilton--

When teams are getting the ball out of the QB hands in rhythm the team is hard to stop--

The defences eventually will catch up and start to play better
 
Hulu said:
Leans on 3 additional plays. I really feel like there’s value on both Montreal and Toronto getting 14 and 13.5 respectively but I can’t do it after the debacle last week.

Also feel like the over 52.5 in Calgary looks good. BCs offensive line sputtered last week but Calgary doesn’t have the defensive line depth to do what Edmonton did to them. But can Jurious Jackson smarten up and call some runs or any sort of short passing game to take advantage? After last week I have no confidence in their ability to adjust their offense to their opponent. No play for now.
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BC does not run a PRO offense-- Look at when the chips were on the table in the playoffs--- What were the scores?? Blowouts year after year in the playoffs-- Offence that could do nothing and a defence that can stop nobody-

BC's scouts were not working this offseason I read-- So they didn't even have the ability to pick up any INTERNATIONAL players-- Shows with some of their starters-- Termansen a local CIS guy that stinks, and BOYKO who is crap also--

HERVEY paid 1,000,000 for REILLY and a GUARD named SUKH CHUNG-- 800,000 Reilly and 200,000 to CHUNG

The rest of the team is pretty THIN and coupled with NO SCOUTS looking for INTERNATIONAL STUDS, this isn't surprising--

The issue with BC is simple-- Jarious does suck- He was one of the worst CFL QBS IMO when he played-- All he did was launch it deep-- This is exactly what he is doing when he is calling plays also..

I believe that BC could be a TOP CONTENDER if they just got about 6-7 really good players--- Bring in 1 good pass rusher-- A linebacker- 2 receiver- An offensive lineman, a running back, a corner-
All of a sudden this team is one of the better teams in the league--- But they don't have all these guys so they are garbage at the moment.

Also the cat in the bag-- Is MIKE REILLY OVERRATED- It was his ESKIMOS that didn't make the playoffs last season-- Hmmmm- He was running the same launch the ball deep offence last season with edmonton-- Hmmmm Trevor Harris quick passing attack sure looks better in Edmonton than REILLY despite having new receivers although he does have ELLINGSON-

I think the reality here is that MIKE REILLY won a grey cup with CHRIS JONES-- IT was more of CHRIS JONES and his defence than REILLY-- If you look at REILLY he could be the most overrated player in the league- He also looks like a really old 34 year old-- He has taken tons of hits- Not sure his body is right
 
Syndicate Poll question?

Is JAMES FRANKLIN the worst player in the CFl?

He sure looks like he sucks-- Half of his passes get deflected at the line of scrimmage-- He looks scared and can't handle any pressure-
 
Calgary -10.5
Sask -11.5
Hamilton -13.5

Remember guys when laying these points in this league--

- Teams are only allowed to practice for like 3 hours max a day--
-LImited practices before games-
-Players have other jobs- concerns- girls- mistresses on the side etc--distractions
-players are looking for other career opportunities while playing

So when laying big points like this I find the favourites cannot cover because its not college football or NFL-- It's more of a pre season type of preparation- No teams can drastically practice and change their gamelans and improve in 1 week--

So what I am basically saying is that CFL teams are not designed to be trusted with big spreads- They can't run an offence like TOM BRADY or Clemson tigers or Ohio state-- They just don't have the practice time--

Then you watch and say HOLY shit they would have never covered the big spread--

They aren't professional enough in terms of PREP time- PRACTICE- SCOUTING ETC--
 
I do not believe that CALGARY and SASK and Hamilton are good enough to cover those spreads--- Would not be surprised if it goes 2-1 or 3-0.
 
Sammy, if you were to bet one of the 3 double-digit dogs this week, who would it be?

Toronto looked completely out of shape and I don't know if they ccan fix that in a week. Plus they lost Micah Awe and Jermaine Gabriel from their defence. Sask isn't great but they should be able to run the ball all over Toronto. I think the Argos offence will play better but I don't know if they can keep this close.

Montreal looks better to me but they have a glaring weakness in that they have no pass rush vs the best offensive line in the league. Hamilton should be able to control the ball and tire out the rest of the defense and I don't see VA having enough success to keep the cats off the field for long. Maybe they keep this within 2 TDs. Maybe.

BC looks the best of the bunch to me. No way they're as bad as they looked last week and Calgary is beatable with their thin defensive line. They are without Ormialade, Turner and Muarbre. They signed Jabar Westermann this week in an emergency but he isn't that great, just a warm body. We knew going into the year that BC would take some time to get things together and would be a work in progress this year. To that end, they are shuffling their secondary and offensive line and theres rumors of a players-only meeting. I think there is a shot that they bounce back and keep this one close. The big question for me is, are they going to start running the ball? Because that's how you can beat Calgary with their DL troubles. I would think in all the shit going on around that team, Claybrooks must have had a talk with Jackson about the playcalling. I mean theres memes about it at this point. They're being mocked in the press about their lack of balance. Surely they must know its an issue.
 
Read a report out of BCs practice that said they spent a lot of the day working on bubble screens and the short passing game.

Maybe they’re wising up and figuring out how to counter the blitz.
 
Hulu said:
Sammy, if you were to bet one of the 3 double-digit dogs this week, who would it be?

Toronto looked completely out of shape and I don't know if they ccan fix that in a week. Plus they lost Micah Awe and Jermaine Gabriel from their defence. Sask isn't great but they should be able to run the ball all over Toronto. I think the Argos offence will play better but I don't know if they can keep this close.

Montreal looks better to me but they have a glaring weakness in that they have no pass rush vs the best offensive line in the league. Hamilton should be able to control the ball and tire out the rest of the defense and I don't see VA having enough success to keep the cats off the field for long. Maybe they keep this within 2 TDs. Maybe.

BC looks the best of the bunch to me. No way they're as bad as they looked last week and Calgary is beatable with their thin defensive line. They are without Ormialade, Turner and Muarbre. They signed Jabar Westermann this week in an emergency but he isn't that great, just a warm body. We knew going into the year that BC would take some time to get things together and would be a work in progress this year. To that end, they are shuffling their secondary and offensive line and theres rumors of a players-only meeting. I think there is a shot that they bounce back and keep this one close. The big question for me is, are they going to start running the ball? Because that's how you can beat Calgary with their DL troubles. I would think in all the shit going on around that team, Claybrooks must have had a talk with Jackson about the playcalling. I mean theres memes about it at this point. They're being mocked in the press about their lack of balance. Surely they must know its an issue.
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I agree that perhaps BC is the best dog of the bunch. I would say Toronto is second best because I don't believe SASK is anywhere good enough to be laying that many points.

If we analyze BC the issues are that when they face ADVERSITY the last 7 years they quickly FOLD-- They are like a BOXER that is in the fight early on-- As soon as they get punched in the mouth they QUIT-- ESPECIALLY ON THE ROAD---

I think BC goes into every game with a severe COACHING MISMATCH- I mean they haven't changed their offence for the past 7 years--- They are running the old GEROY OFFENSE where its all longer passes-- Like long deep passes and 15 yard intermediate routes--

I do not believe the BC passing offence has a pass in its playbook under 10 yards---

Here is what happens with BC-- Their deep passing game gets shut down- Then they try to go to the short passing game, but the other team is now ready for the short passing game--- SO BC will then try like 10 short passes in a row--

There is no VARIETY-- NO MIXING up of Runs, with short passes, with deep passes-- Its always ONE type of pass and they never change that pass-- I feel that there is definitely some FOOTBALL INCOMPETENCE on behalf of the BC offense--

SO since they practiced bubble screens and short passes this week, they will predictably run like 15 short passes in a row and CGY will sell out to stop their short passes-

I just find that BC has no FOOTBALL ACUMEN at all on their team except for their coach CLAYBROOKS who by the way was coaching perhaps the most talented defence in the CFL in the past 20 years last season--

BC's issues are that this whole off season they didn't feel the need to institute a short passing game? What league are they in? WhAT ARE THEY WATCHING?
IF you watch CALGARY they always throw short--- They run the ball and throw lots of easy short passes- And then they throw deep when the defence is creeping up closer to defend the short routes--

BC on the other hand just tries to throw deep every single pass play-- They seem to believe that this will work even though it hasn't worked for the past 7 years-- Ruined 2 QBS in LULAY and JENNINGS and now REILLY is getting pummelled--

BC if they changed their coaching and coordinators, I guarantee would win at least 4-5 games a season--
 
Hulu said:
Read a report out of BCs practice that said they spent a lot of the day working on bubble screens and the short passing game.

Maybe they’re wising up and figuring out how to counter the blitz.
Click to expand...

JARIOUS Jackson himself was one of the worst QBS ever to read a CFl defense- So i am unsure of why he is coaching PRO football? The results are not surprising-- All he did when he was QB was throw it deep to PARIS JACKSON OR GEROY SIMOM-- He would literally stare them down and just throw it deep to them-- I don't think he knew how to throw a pass under 20 yards--

So I believe until he is fired I do not expect BC offence to get better---

Its more than throwing short passes-- ITs understanding how to CALL A GAME-- Just like a back catcher calls the pitches- We need a smarter guy in BC calling plays--


Jaerious is not smart- He knows nothing about moving the football.
 
calgary off a BYE is dangerous--- They usually always cover-- However this years team is not really that talented--

The key matchup BC would be wise to stay away from is DURAN CARTER vs TRE ROBERSON-- Roberson will intercept every pass thrown his way- He intercepted 3 passes in week 1--

So now that DURON CARTER will essentially catch 0 passes, how can BC win ?

How is their stat line going to look? Brian Turnham maybe 5 catches for 89 yards--- Lemar Durant 4 catches for 78 yards-- So after these 9 catches I do not believe that the other BC receivers are PRO MATERIAL-- I don't believe they catch more than 2-3 passes-- So how is BC going to win when they do not have the receivers to make catches? SO from my tally i see about 12-13 passes max being completed to receivers?

This is why they are losing- Its simple math-- After Burnhma and maybe Durant there is nobody else that can get OPEN-- They just don't have guys to get open--

So you wonder why REILLY throws eery pass to either BURNHAM or CARTER or DURANT-- You cannot run a CFL offence with 3 receivers-- and none of these receivers being good short pattern route runners-- They all like to go deep-- SO that is the real issue IMO--

They don't have the scheme and the right players or the right coaches-- This is why they completely fall apart in games-- Its a numbers things--

Someone HULU explain to me how BC will win? With SHAQ JOHNSON who basically catches 1 pass a game and LEVOY COTTOY From the local sandlot league catching 0 passes, they just cannot threaten a defence--
 
HULU I would tend to stay away from Montreal-- Hamilton is showing that they are pretty good team----

I cannot bet on JAMES FRANKLIN- He looks terrible every game-- Defelceted passes and basically I think he is a BUST in the CFL--

BC is for sure the best DOG-- With BC they just need smarter people coaching and more responsibility--

I mean BC was competitive with WINNIPEG and then with Edmonton were leading 17-3----

In 2011 when BC was 1-6 they remind me of this season-- They started cutting guys and bringing in new guys and changing their offense-- That season they won the GREY CUP--

I believe that BC is not as bad as their record shows and their performances-- They can improve and likely will with the addition of a few more players.
 
Apparently both Elimimiam and Arceneaux practiced with the Sask first team this week. No confirmation yet but it’s possible one or both might be back for Monday.

Solly especially would make a difference.
 
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