Hulu's CFL 2019
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Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Masoli is soft--- He shows up when the games don't matter- IN big games and clutch moments he folds up.
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#3DownNation
Remember those games where hed led a 4th quarter comeback? Yeah neither do I.
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#3DownNation
I think they were at +14 but its been bet down now. I don't have a good feel for this one. Could easily be a Hamilton blowout if the ALs defence doesn't show up.
I'm hard on Masoli but he's playing behind the best line he has ever had this season and he has progressed thus far. Maybe this is the year he steps up to the elite level. Under is the only play for me.
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#3DownNation
@guaranteeed we need your opinion on BC tomorrow getting 10.5.
I think they had a tough wtart to the season, facing the best team overall in Winnipeg and then a matchup nightmare with blitz happy Edmonton. I see a lot of little signs this week that point to a better effort. Beard is gone, Reilly getting serious, shuffled OL and secondary, rumors of a players only meeting, seen practicing the short passing game more this week. Its a lot of points for a game where they will give max effort. Calgary has weaknesses on both lines too but they are awfully good off a bye. Very close to pulling the trigger with this one.
I think they had a tough wtart to the season, facing the best team overall in Winnipeg and then a matchup nightmare with blitz happy Edmonton. I see a lot of little signs this week that point to a better effort. Beard is gone, Reilly getting serious, shuffled OL and secondary, rumors of a players only meeting, seen practicing the short passing game more this week. Its a lot of points for a game where they will give max effort. Calgary has weaknesses on both lines too but they are awfully good off a bye. Very close to pulling the trigger with this one.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
I think 10 is too high, I'm probably gonna be on it small
Like you say, all the stuff last week a lot of it was effort especially in the 2nd half, so I think we at least see a dead cat bounce from the oline after everything written about reilly the last week. So max effort will be there. Winnipeg and the edmonton D are clearly looking elite right now too
On top of practicing more bubble screens, radio has talked this week how jarious and reilly got together and went over the playbook this week and recalibrated by what reilly is comfortable with and what they think the pass catchers do best. I think Lemar Durant has a big week, hes up against his former team, and Reilly specifically mentioned him as a guy hes feeling more and more comfortable with.
I also like the OL changes brought on by boykos injury. Foucault will help at RT, they have been getting crushed on outside rushes, and him moving from LG to rt weakened the center spot a bit, since steward is moving to LG. But if the outside is better protected, which the new OL plus some screens shoild help with. Reilly will have more time hopefully, and when he does he is the best in the league imo. Stamps d line is hurting too
On d, sounds like dozier is coming and playing right away, may take him a few weeks but on talent the group just got a lot better.
Claybrooks should be a huge benefit as well, I'm sure stamps changed a lot but on defense the spine of his group is still there, he has to know where the weak spots are.
I think I just talked myself into it
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#3DownNation
Alright I’m going with it too. Focault at RT is scary as hell but I think getting Strward away from C is a plus. I really hope they take a clue from the stamps first game where Ottawa just ran it at the right side of that DL all night. After Law and Wiggan, the rest are backups at best.
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#3DownNation
YESSSSSSSSSS
1:19 PM EDT Friday 28 June 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:
Frequent showers and thundershowers through tonight.
Areas of showers and thundershowers are expected to move across southern Ontario at times through tonight. The first wave will reach the GTA around 3 PM. A few locales will see total rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 mm before the showers end early Saturday.
1:19 PM EDT Friday 28 June 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:
- City of Hamilton
Frequent showers and thundershowers through tonight.
Areas of showers and thundershowers are expected to move across southern Ontario at times through tonight. The first wave will reach the GTA around 3 PM. A few locales will see total rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 mm before the showers end early Saturday.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
That should slow things down....
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Let's see some zeroes
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
Yessir. Good job...
Good work as well #Ticos
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#3DownNation
Any leans tonight Hulu?
opcorn:
Sorry late to the party here. I leaned under when it was at 54 and Toronto at +13.5 but the numbers got away. Watching this one academically although a 2H or live bet is always possible.
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#3DownNation
Results after Week 3
Sides 5-4-1 -0.647*
Totals 4-3 -0.28*
2H bets 1-0 +0.50*
Live 2-0 +0.775*
Overall 12-7-1 +0.348*
Advantage over close
Sides: +6 pts
Totals: +13.5 pts
4-0 for 3.275* this week. Made up for the mess last week.
The live bet was graded as a win. I have to say that's one I'm pretty proud of.
Sides 5-4-1 -0.647*
Totals 4-3 -0.28*
2H bets 1-0 +0.50*
Live 2-0 +0.775*
Overall 12-7-1 +0.348*
Advantage over close
Sides: +6 pts
Totals: +13.5 pts
4-0 for 3.275* this week. Made up for the mess last week.
The live bet was graded as a win. I have to say that's one I'm pretty proud of.
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#3DownNation
Nice hit
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#3DownNation
Strange...a couple of books have the +3.5 juiced while Pinny has moved the other way a full point to +4.5. Its generally not wise to fade Pinnacle moves but that's exactly what I am doing. Adding another half unit at +4.5. Full bet now as follows...
1.5*/0.5* Winnipeg +3.5/+4.5 -107
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#3DownNation
Weeks 3-5 is where we get to play the "...but who have they played" game.
Ottawa looks much better this season than I anticipated but who have they played? In week 1 they caught a Calgary team trying to fit a bunch of new pieces together on defence, struggling with defensive line issues and decimated by injuries in-game. The Stamps only dressed 6 DL and then lost 2 in game. It was so bad that they were switching it up to a 3-4 to get guys some rest and Ottawa just pounded the rock over and over at that decimated line. Davis looked good in the end but he also threw 4 picks along the way. Against a functional team there's no way Ottawa would have won that contest. Then after a bye, Ottawa played Saskatchewan in Cody Fajardo's first start and let him drop 40 points on them at home. The RBs won it 44-40 but against a defence that has lost its swagger after last season. Not to mention Nick Marshall, normally a very solid CB probably had the worst game of his career that night and directly led to 2 Ottwa TDs. I wasn't impressed with that win.
Now they have to face the league's best team who, lets be fair, was not as impressive last week as they should've been but then again, were playing arguably the 2nd best team in Edmonton. Ottawa has a very solid secondary but its front 8 are pedestrian aside from Cioffi. And they lost DE Mason for several weeks. I think the Bombers offense will have no trouble moving the ball. On the other side, Winnipeg will be the best defence the RBs have faced yet.
Anything over 3 points for Winnipeg is an auto-bet for me. I'll add ML if the number is still good when it becomes available.
Ottawa looks much better this season than I anticipated but who have they played? In week 1 they caught a Calgary team trying to fit a bunch of new pieces together on defence, struggling with defensive line issues and decimated by injuries in-game. The Stamps only dressed 6 DL and then lost 2 in game. It was so bad that they were switching it up to a 3-4 to get guys some rest and Ottawa just pounded the rock over and over at that decimated line. Davis looked good in the end but he also threw 4 picks along the way. Against a functional team there's no way Ottawa would have won that contest. Then after a bye, Ottawa played Saskatchewan in Cody Fajardo's first start and let him drop 40 points on them at home. The RBs won it 44-40 but against a defence that has lost its swagger after last season. Not to mention Nick Marshall, normally a very solid CB probably had the worst game of his career that night and directly led to 2 Ottwa TDs. I wasn't impressed with that win.
Now they have to face the league's best team who, lets be fair, was not as impressive last week as they should've been but then again, were playing arguably the 2nd best team in Edmonton. Ottawa has a very solid secondary but its front 8 are pedestrian aside from Cioffi. And they lost DE Mason for several weeks. I think the Bombers offense will have no trouble moving the ball. On the other side, Winnipeg will be the best defence the RBs have faced yet.
Anything over 3 points for Winnipeg is an auto-bet for me. I'll add ML if the number is still good when it becomes available.
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Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I'm confused about this line-- I thought it should be Winnipeg -2 points. I am unsure of why Ottawa is favoured unless they feel that DAVIS is going to be unstoppable on offense?
I do not believe that Ottawa is this good- Winnipeg has some defenders- Bighill Jefferson Nevis, Roh, Fenner, Hecht, and Ottawa is average IMO.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Make the Final 37-8 BC-
James Franklin is the worst QB to play in the CFL in the last 38 years I believe- He cant throw a pass under 20 yards- He cant read a defense- He cant run- He can oly get blown out week in week out.
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#3DownNation
Yeah my jaw dropped and I got a semi when I saw that number. When it moved to 4.5 my jaw dropped more and actually hit my semi (it got kinda weird after that).
The public and books always fall for the simple, surface level narrative. Ottawa has overachieved thus far and are 2-0 including their first ever win @ Calgary and that crazy 84 pt game vs sask. The reality is they luckboxed a win they shouldn’t have vs a team in disarray (I mean seriously, when is the last time a team threw 4 picks and won?) and barely beat a mediocre team with a qb making his first start.
Meanwhile the Bombers have been quietly doing what’s expected of them without any flashy headlines. Anthony Gaitor will be back this week and it wouldn’t surprise me to see former NFLer Marcus Rios replace Fenner who has struggled in the secondary.
That’s my only explanation for this line.
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#3DownNation
1* Saskatchewan -3 -110
Was hoping to grab Sask as a dog or short fav here because Calgary is in a lot of trouble and their win vs BC was very misleading. They got outplayed all game until BC collapsed in the final 2 mins. But the stamps are in injury purgatory right now so I can't ignore this game. Already down 3 defensive linemen, they lost Ivan McClennen who dislocated his knee, tore multiple ligaments and broke his hand, all on the same play. He is done for the year. Bo Levi Mitchell will have an MRI today although I'm hearing it may be a pectoral rather than a shoulder issue so he's a question mark for this week. RB Don Jackson and Rec Juwan Brescasin are in concussion protocol. LB Wynton McManis is out. Rec Hergy Malaya is not at practice today either.
Sask is on a 5 day week but staying home with no travel and they coasted through the final half of last nights game so I'm not too concerned. Bible-thumper Cody Fajardo probably isn't as good as he's looked thus far but even he should be able to pick apart this patchwork quilt of a defense.
Was hoping to grab Sask as a dog or short fav here because Calgary is in a lot of trouble and their win vs BC was very misleading. They got outplayed all game until BC collapsed in the final 2 mins. But the stamps are in injury purgatory right now so I can't ignore this game. Already down 3 defensive linemen, they lost Ivan McClennen who dislocated his knee, tore multiple ligaments and broke his hand, all on the same play. He is done for the year. Bo Levi Mitchell will have an MRI today although I'm hearing it may be a pectoral rather than a shoulder issue so he's a question mark for this week. RB Don Jackson and Rec Juwan Brescasin are in concussion protocol. LB Wynton McManis is out. Rec Hergy Malaya is not at practice today either.
Sask is on a 5 day week but staying home with no travel and they coasted through the final half of last nights game so I'm not too concerned. Bible-thumper Cody Fajardo probably isn't as good as he's looked thus far but even he should be able to pick apart this patchwork quilt of a defense.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I like Sask this week but I am catching a falling knife with the horrid Argo's this week. At some point the Winnipeg lines will adjust. Still can't understand why they are a dog.
Good luck this week
Good luck this week
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Winnipeg is +250 to win the GREY CUP-- The lowest odds-- #1 ranked to win it all
Ottawa is +650 to win Grey cup-- In the middle of the pack
Look at these lines and explain the game line?
Winnipeg is no joke-- Ottawa is decent team but nowhere near what they have showed--
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Winnipeg and Hamilton are my 2 favourite teams this season--
I like them both because both teams did not go crazy in free agency-
They retained most of their own players- coaches-- You can see from how they are playing-
These teams are good because of CONTINUITY-- Lots of same guys -- I like it
I like them both because both teams did not go crazy in free agency-
They retained most of their own players- coaches-- You can see from how they are playing-
These teams are good because of CONTINUITY-- Lots of same guys -- I like it
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#3DownNation
There he is. Good to have you back sir.
I’ll wish you best of health with the Argos but I don’t know if I could touch them for anything less than 14. I’m not as in love with my BC bet as I once was for a cpl reasons but I still think that line hits at least 7.5 by kickoff so it won’t be too costly to buy off.
Like sask more and more. Calgary’s defence is a mess and it’s looking more and more like Arbuckle will get the start. Stamps are reportedly seeking a second opinion on Mitchell’s MRI and you don’t usually do that when it’s good news. When that news breaks, this line will likely go to 4.
And yeah Winnipeg...what the hell. Line is still sitting at 3.5/4 even though the known universe likes peg here. I noticed pinnacle upped its limits on this game quicker than I’ve ever seen so some big early money on Ottawa from somewhere.
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#3DownNation
Total agreement Sammy. Like I said a post above, I’ve never seen pinny up their limits on a cfl game and release a money line so quickly. And move a point also. Must’ve been major money come in on Ottawa.
Makes me feel like it’s me who’s fallen for the surface level narrative.
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#3DownNation
That’s the June Jones effect. He was an old school coach who believed in coaching up the guys you have and building chemistry instead of swapping talent in and out.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Love this thinking and agree on all of it
With you on every play this week
Let's keep the syndicate going strong mates
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
On radio today I heard they sounded like burnham may miss this week
Also boyko practiced today, line played so much better saturday without him, but like weve been saying going into that game, calgary's line is bad so it was expected, and the run was a killer, so it's hard to judge
Also boyko practiced today, line played so much better saturday without him, but like weve been saying going into that game, calgary's line is bad so it was expected, and the run was a killer, so it's hard to judge
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#3DownNation
Wow now Tre Roberson revealed to be battling a hip injury. Can it get any worse for the stamps at this point?
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Dont like either of those developments.
With Burnham out, who steps up? Carter? Don’t think so. Maybe Durant? Only saving grace is that this is the Argos defence.
And Boyko looks more like a project guy who’s 2-3 years away from being starter quality.
The more I think about it, the more I think about buying off my BC bet. This is probably the poorest defence Toronto has faced yet and maybe MBT finds some chemistry with Walker. Maybe Wilder finally looks worth a damn. Still love the under though.
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@guaranteeed @Sammy Meatballs @spottie2935 Inneed some opinions about the total in Regina. Opened at 51, dropped to 50.5 on the BLM speculation.
I made it 54 and am strongly considering the over. Sask has this rep as a conservative run-first team but that’s not what we’ve seen the last 2 games. Cody Fajardo has shredded 2 straight defences and shown a ton of confidence slinging the ball downfield. Sure, one of those was the Argos but I don’t know if the stamps defence is any better right now. Even if they do run Powell a lot he should be able to rip off some good runs against this DL. I feel like sask could put up 30 easily.
On the other side, whether we get BLM or Arbuckle, the stamps offense should still produce some points. Eric Rogers can go up and get any ball in his area code. I don't think Don Jackson being out is a problem because Ka’Deem Carey is no dropoff IMO. Sasks defence is good but they’re not the overachievers they were under Chris Jones.
I’m feeling a 30-24 type game here. Thoughts?
I made it 54 and am strongly considering the over. Sask has this rep as a conservative run-first team but that’s not what we’ve seen the last 2 games. Cody Fajardo has shredded 2 straight defences and shown a ton of confidence slinging the ball downfield. Sure, one of those was the Argos but I don’t know if the stamps defence is any better right now. Even if they do run Powell a lot he should be able to rip off some good runs against this DL. I feel like sask could put up 30 easily.
On the other side, whether we get BLM or Arbuckle, the stamps offense should still produce some points. Eric Rogers can go up and get any ball in his area code. I don't think Don Jackson being out is a problem because Ka’Deem Carey is no dropoff IMO. Sasks defence is good but they’re not the overachievers they were under Chris Jones.
I’m feeling a 30-24 type game here. Thoughts?
