Hulu's CFL 2019

Results after Week 17

Sides 24-19-2 +1.722*
Totals 18-14 +3.180*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 10-6 +2.010*
Live 5-1 +2.200*

Overall 57-41-2 +8.612*

Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.52ppb
Totals: +27.5 pts or 0.86ppb


4-1 for 3.95* in week 17.

Got seriously lucky with Montreal. Calgary thoroughly outplayrd them in the 3 quarters but 4 turnovers, 2 in the red zone kept the ALs in it. Credit to them though...this team has a spark and doesn't want to be denied.
 
Since 2013 Calgary has the best record in the CFL and Montreal easily the worst. And yet in that time the Alouettes are the only team to have a .500 record vs the Stampeders. 10-2 ATS.

You can’t make this stuff up.
 
Week 18 Into the home stretch now. 6 straight weeks of profit...lets keep this momentum going.

1.5* Montreal +4 -106
My number is 2. Two teams trending in opposite directions.

1* Saskatchewan +3 -110
This is a heavyweight tilt for first place in the west and Sask is 9-1 SU in their L10. This game has all the makings of a classic CFL playoff type game and has a good chance of coming down to a FG either way. My number is 1.5.

1* SSK / CAL under 48.5 -110
I love unders in heavyweight fights like this and both these teams have great defences. Calgary has been an under machine this year with their poor crop of receivers (although 2 did surprise me vs Montreal) and BLM still not playing at 100%. Sask not so much but 5/6 of their overs have come vs poor defences (2xBC, 2xOTT, 1xTOR). My number is 46.


As always with these early strikes, buying off is a possibility as news comes out of practice during the week so stay tuned.
 
1* MTL/WPG under 49 -110

My number on this game was 49 but long range forecast shows a Colorado low developing that will bring significant storm activity to the Winnipeg area Friday night through Saturday. Rain/snow and high winds possible.
Dont like getting on weather plays this early but it’s already dropped 2 points or more and will likely keep going so buying off won’t be a problem later if need be.
 
Hulu said:
1* MTL/WPG under 49 -110

My number on this game was 49 but long range forecast shows a Colorado low developing that will bring significant storm activity to the Winnipeg area Friday night through Saturday. Rain/snow and high winds possible.
Dont like getting on weather plays this early but it’s already dropped 2 points or more and will likely keep going so buying off won’t be a problem later if need be.
Click to expand...
:shake:
 
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • City of Winnipeg
An early season winter storm will affect southern Manitoba late this week into the holiday weekend. The system which has already developed in Colorado will move northward through the remainder of the work week, eventually stalling over the Lake of the Woods area by Saturday. Precipitation associated with this system has already moved into western Manitoba where some areas saw more than 10 cm fall on Wednesday.

This storm will bring significant precipitation to much of southern Manitoba, much of it falling as a wintery rain/snow mix. Snowfall accumulations are highly uncertain at the moment, however it seems as though the highest amounts will be west of Winnipeg, where total snowfall accumulations exceeding 30 cm are possible by the end of the day Saturday. East of Winnipeg the majority of the precipitation should fall as rain.

The snow will be accompanied by strong north winds, with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark.
 
0.5*/0.5* BC Lions -2/ML -110/-130

This game already features 2 teams trending in opposite directions but I just came to realize how beat up Edmonton is after their tilt in the hammer last weekend. CJ Gable is out. Kilgore is on the limp. Ellingson, Tevaun Smith, Anthony Orange, Josh Johnson, Kwaku Boateng all absent from practice today. This could be a MASH unit on Saturday.
 
Having serious thoughts about buying off Montreal. They still are the better and hotter team but...
-They will be without both Stanback and LT Tony Washington. They do get Chris Ackie back on defence tho
-Winnipeg has been practicing in this weather for 2 days while Montreal is flying into it.
-Possible travel issues for Montreal? Many cancelled flights today as wind gusts reaching 100km/hr are forecast today

Will keep monitoring the situation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1182687848060870656
 
Hulu said:
Week 18 Into the home stretch now. 6 straight weeks of profit...lets keep this momentum going.

1.5* Montreal +4 -106
My number is 2. Two teams trending in opposite directions.

1* Saskatchewan +3 -110
This is a heavyweight tilt for first place in the west and Sask is 9-1 SU in their L10. This game has all the makings of a classic CFL playoff type game and has a good chance of coming down to a FG either way. My number is 1.5.

1* SSK / CAL under 48.5 -110
I love unders in heavyweight fights like this and both these teams have great defences. Calgary has been an under machine this year with their poor crop of receivers (although 2 did surprise me vs Montreal) and BLM still not playing at 100%. Sask not so much but 5/6 of their overs have come vs poor defences (2xBC, 2xOTT, 1xTOR). My number is 46.


As always with these early strikes, buying off is a possibility as news comes out of practice during the week so stay tuned.
Click to expand...
Gun to your head which play is stronger, the under tonight or the side?
 
Teapot9 said:
Gun to your head which play is stronger, the under tonight or the side?
Click to expand...

If you mean tonight’s Sask-Calgary game then I would say the under by a nose. But I still like both and sask can be had for +3.5 now. Public loves the stamps at home.

1H under might be worth a look as well depending on the number. These playoff type battles often start off slow and conservative.
 
Results after Week 18

Sides 25-21-2 -0.068*
Totals 18-16 +0.980*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 10-6 +2.010*
Live 5-1 +2.200*

Overall 58-45-2 +4.622*

Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.49ppb
Totals: +31.0 pts or 0.91ppb

Awful week 18, going 1-4. Not to make excuses but I caught some bad breaks. Mike Reilly going leaving the game in the 1Q basically killed the BC bet and 2 fluke TDs in the 1Q killed the Sask/Calgary under. Thems the breaks.

Been in Europe all week so hard to keep up on news with the jet lag and time difference etc. I missed the weak line of the year when Sask opened up -2.5 @ BC. By the time I saw it, the line was 7. Also missed out on a great live opp last night by falling asleep. Not my greatest week.

For the early game today, I am going under as I think this total is a bit high. No playoff ramifications here as Hamilton has forst sewn up and Ottawa was eliminated weeks ago. The cats don't appear to be resting anyone from the look of the depth chart but I really think their main goal is to get out of this game unhurt and wouldn't be surprised to see them work the clock and rest some key guys in the 2H. Ottawa will be rotating in a number of players hungry to earn a shot but they still have no serviceable QB so I doubt they hit 20. Strong lean to the +17 here too but I think the under is the weaker number.

1* OTT / HAM under 51.5 -110

Still looking into the late game. As usual, I'll be hunting for 2H and live opps. Its been a challenging season but those have been working for me as long as I stay disciplined.
 
1* Calgary ML -235

I very rarely play big ML favs like this but I searched around in vain to find a partner to tease or parlay this with and I just couldn't find anything that worked so I'm accepting the risk.

Stamps are locked in and can eliminate the Bombers from the 3-way race for first with a win today. Its their final home game of the season and they come into it mostly healthy, save for CB Roberson who is in concussion protocol. This is the time of year that Dikenson and co shine and I just don't see any way they don't win this game today. I had thought their weak receiving corps would hold them back but in the last 2 weeks, their younger players have been stepping it up to the point where I'm not sure its a concern anymore. Hergy Malaya, Colton Hunchak and Mike Klukas have all showed potential and if there is a weak point in the Bombers D its the secondary. Winnipeg's defense and in particular their disruptive D line has the potential to keep it close so I won't lay the points but I think the Stamps find a way no matter what.
 
Hulu said:
For the early game today, I am going under as I think this total is a bit high. No playoff ramifications here as Hamilton has forst sewn up and Ottawa was eliminated weeks ago. The cats don't appear to be resting anyone from the look of the depth chart but I really think their main goal is to get out of this game unhurt and wouldn't be surprised to see them work the clock and rest some key guys in the 2H. Ottawa will be rotating in a number of players hungry to earn a shot but they still have no serviceable QB so I doubt they hit 20. Strong lean to the +17 here too but I think the under is the weaker number.

1* OTT / HAM under 51.5 -110
Click to expand...

Upping this to 1.5*. The more I consider it, I just don't see how Ottawa scores. They're averaging 17.3 ppg and going up against a top-2 defence on the road. Cats will get a lead and grind it out with backups. Final score 30-15. I think 47.5 would be a more appropriate number for this game.

1.5* OTT / HAM under 51.5 -110
 
If I lose these 2, I'll wipe out my profit for the year. Nothing like ending the season with your balls on the table.

Oskee Wee Wee!
 
0.5* Calgary 2H -6 -110

I'm in deep but still convinced Calgary wins this game. Especially is Strevelers hand injury affects him.
 
A Fumble return TD and anopther set up by a pick deep in Calgary territory has allowed the Bombers to take the lead. I don't see the Bombers winning this with their offense.
 
Results after Week 18

Sides 26-21-2 +0.932*
Totals 19-16 +2.480*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 11-6 +3.010*
Live 5-1 +2.200*

Overall 61-45-2 +8.122*

Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.48ppb
Totals: +31.5 pts or 0.90ppb

3-0 for +3.50*. Good week.
 
B.A.R. said:
Good week...
Click to expand...

So update on the Hamilton future...

Calgary determines their own destiny and by winning their last 2 can finish first, get the bye and HFA in the west final. It’s looking more and more like its Calgary vs Hamilton in the cup unless we see a major upset.

Then they have HFA in the Grey Cup game. What’s more, by having to win out the stamps are facing some adversity down the stretch which I like. Meanwhile Hamilton has nothing to play for in their final 3 games. Coach Steinauer does a good job of keeping them focused and motivated but there’s something to be said for having to battle all the way through. They could go into coast mode and then get upset when they face a must win game for the first time in weeks.

Hamilton is definitely the hungrier of the 2 teams, having not been to a cup since they lost b2b in 2012 and 2013 and haven’t won it since ‘99. Calgary has been there 4 of the last 5 years, winning it last year. Does that take some of the shine off for them?

With all that being said, Calgary can be had for +300 now and I’m wondering if a hedge would be wise considering all the above. Do you have any thoughts on that strategy?
 
After careful consideration, I've decided to hedge my Hamilton Grey Cup future by adding a future on Calgary. Here's my thinking...

Getting There - Calgary Edition
-Calgary has all but sewn up first in the west...all they have to do is win out. They play the Bombers again this weekend but Winnipeg got pretty beat up this past weekend and I don't like their chances of beating Calgary. After that Calgary finishes on the road against a QB-less BC team.
-Even if Calgary fails to win out, Sask would have to win out to overtake them. Sask has B2B games against Edmonton and it looks like Trevor Harris will be back for at least the final game if not sooner. Edmonton is already locked into the crossover spot but I don't think they want to throw away their final 2 games entering the playoffs...they will play hard.
-So assuming its Sask @ Calgary in the western final, I'll take the stamps all day. As good as Sask has looked at times this year, Calgary has shown them to be paper tigers. Cody Fajardo has impressed but he's not playoff tested. Without HFA in the west final, I don't see the green Riders advancing.

Getting There - Hamilton Edition
-Hamilton is locked into first place with 2 games to go. I hate when a team wraps things up this early as I'd prefer to have them tested down the stratch. But the east final will feature either Montreal or Edmonton and I'll take the cats against either one of those opponents in a playoff showdown at the litter box where they haven't lost all year.

The Big Game
So assuming its Cats vs Stamps, there are a lot of reasons to think Calgary would be the fav...
-Teams were 1-1 vsd each other this year with the cats winning at home but against Nick Arbuckle when BLM was out with his pectoral injury. BLM has looked stellar since returning. Then in Calgary, the cats outplayed the stamps but lost on a last-play blocked field goal. Very even matchup.
-Calgary will have HFA - huge in a GC Game
-Calgary has had to battle all the way down the stretch and will be in playoff shape, Hamilton will only have one important game between now and then
-Weather can always be a factor in a western grey cup and while the stamps will be living in it for a few weeks, Hamilton, an eastern team will be jetting into it and only get a couple of practices in it: advantage stamps
-BLM, Dikenson and many other stamps are playoff tested and know how to win this time of year. They've been to 3 of the last 4 cups. OTOH, maybe its getting routine for them and they might not be as hungry?
-Cats don't have nearly as much experience and a rookie HC and a QB who has yet to play a full season or in a Canadian winter game (Evans played his college ball at Tulsa so he knows wind but not bitter cold).

So with that in mind, I feel now is the appropriate time to hedge while there is still a decent number on Calgary. I considered it a couple weeks ago at +450 but there were still too many possible variations. Now I feel pretty good about their chances of getting to the game.

All Grey Cup futures now as follows...

1* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +725
0.75* Winnipeg to win Grey Cup +533
0.6* Calgary to win Grey Cup +300
 
1.5* Calgary -1 -110

I fully expect Calgary to win out to get the bye and HFA in the west playoffs. This game comes a day before sask plays so it will still be must win at kickoff. Futhermore, Winnipeg may have QB issues after this past weekend and while they would like to win to still have a chance at second and HFA in the semi, they realistically know they will be finishing 3rd.
 
Also should mention that although Calgary only won by 4 at home, the score really flattered Winnipeg. A scoop,n,score TD and another TD setup by an interception in Calgary's end kept the Bombers competitive. Take those away and add in the beating that some key Bombers players took and I made this line -4.

Calgary also likely to get CB Roberson back this week off concussion protocol. Also hearing early reports that DE Corderro Law, who left last week's game is not seriously hurt and will have a chance to come back this week.
 
Hulu said:
1.5* Calgary -1 -110

I fully expect Calgary to win out to get the bye and HFA in the west playoffs. This game comes a day before sask plays so it will still be must win at kickoff. Futhermore, Winnipeg may have QB issues after this past weekend and while they would like to win to still have a chance at second and HFA in the semi, they realistically know they will be finishing 3rd.
Click to expand...

I see Calg is up to 2* now.

Lots of home dogs this week ...
 
Hulu said:
So update on the Hamilton future...

Calgary determines their own destiny and by winning their last 2 can finish first, get the bye and HFA in the west final. It’s looking more and more like its Calgary vs Hamilton in the cup unless we see a major upset.

Then they have HFA in the Grey Cup game. What’s more, by having to win out the stamps are facing some adversity down the stretch which I like. Meanwhile Hamilton has nothing to play for in their final 3 games. Coach Steinauer does a good job of keeping them focused and motivated but there’s something to be said for having to battle all the way through. They could go into coast mode and then get upset when they face a must win game for the first time in weeks.

Hamilton is definitely the hungrier of the 2 teams, having not been to a cup since they lost b2b in 2012 and 2013 and haven’t won it since ‘99. Calgary has been there 4 of the last 5 years, winning it last year. Does that take some of the shine off for them?

With all that being said, Calgary can be had for +300 now and I’m wondering if a hedge would be wise considering all the above. Do you have any thoughts on that strategy?
Click to expand...
I mean, obviously if they both get there it is a great hedge but that means you could have both not get there(though not likely)

I mean, I could bet .33 units to cover my Hamilton investment and if both lose...whoop-de-doo
 
Hulu said:
After careful consideration, I've decided to hedge my Hamilton Grey Cup future by adding a future on Calgary. Here's my thinking...

Getting There - Calgary Edition
-Calgary has all but sewn up first in the west...all they have to do is win out. They play the Bombers again this weekend but Winnipeg got pretty beat up this past weekend and I don't like their chances of beating Calgary. After that Calgary finishes on the road against a QB-less BC team.
-Even if Calgary fails to win out, Sask would have to win out to overtake them. Sask has B2B games against Edmonton and it looks like Trevor Harris will be back for at least the final game if not sooner. Edmonton is already locked into the crossover spot but I don't think they want to throw away their final 2 games entering the playoffs...they will play hard.
-So assuming its Sask @ Calgary in the western final, I'll take the stamps all day. As good as Sask has looked at times this year, Calgary has shown them to be paper tigers. Cody Fajardo has impressed but he's not playoff tested. Without HFA in the west final, I don't see the green Riders advancing.

Getting There - Hamilton Edition
-Hamilton is locked into first place with 2 games to go. I hate when a team wraps things up this early as I'd prefer to have them tested down the stratch. But the east final will feature either Montreal or Edmonton and I'll take the cats against either one of those opponents in a playoff showdown at the litter box where they haven't lost all year.

The Big Game
So assuming its Cats vs Stamps, there are a lot of reasons to think Calgary would be the fav...
-Teams were 1-1 vsd each other this year with the cats winning at home but against Nick Arbuckle when BLM was out with his pectoral injury. BLM has looked stellar since returning. Then in Calgary, the cats outplayed the stamps but lost on a last-play blocked field goal. Very even matchup.
-Calgary will have HFA - huge in a GC Game
-Calgary has had to battle all the way down the stretch and will be in playoff shape, Hamilton will only have one important game between now and then
-Weather can always be a factor in a western grey cup and while the stamps will be living in it for a few weeks, Hamilton, an eastern team will be jetting into it and only get a couple of practices in it: advantage stamps
-BLM, Dikenson and many other stamps are playoff tested and know how to win this time of year. They've been to 3 of the last 4 cups. OTOH, maybe its getting routine for them and they might not be as hungry?
-Cats don't have nearly as much experience and a rookie HC and a QB who has yet to play a full season or in a Canadian winter game (Evans played his college ball at Tulsa so he knows wind but not bitter cold).

So with that in mind, I feel now is the appropriate time to hedge while there is still a decent number on Calgary. I considered it a couple weeks ago at +450 but there were still too many possible variations. Now I feel pretty good about their chances of getting to the game.

All Grey Cup futures now as follows...

1* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +725
0.75* Winnipeg to win Grey Cup +533
0.6* Calgary to win Grey Cup +300
Click to expand...
Okay, I didn't scroll down. I will read through this more tonight.
 
B.A.R. said:
Okay, I didn't scroll down. I will read through this more tonight.
Click to expand...

More or less I just wanted someone to blame it if all goes wrong. I never know when hedging is a good idea in situations like this.

But I still like it. Everything has been heading toward a Calgary vs Hamilton matchup. There is a chance of one or both getting upset of course, but I think now is the time to hit Calgary. In the CFL, the 1st place team in each division has, by far, the easiest path to the cup and it would take a couple of upsets for the stumps not to finish first at this point.

I took just enough to cover my Hamilton and Winnipeg futures. I want to be able to cheer wholeheartedly for my lifelong favourite team to win.
 
inZane said:
I see Calg is up to 2* now.

Lots of home dogs this week ...
Click to expand...

Yup, I like Calgary up to -2.5. I made the number 4. I don't think the market is factoring just how much of a problem WPGs QB situation is. As of now, it looks like Zach Collaros will his first start since week 1 and he only joined the team 2 weeks ago. They only brought him in to backup Chris Streveler and really didn't expect him to be pressed into service.

Ottawa/Toronto is absolutely untouchable. Both teams are trying out new players for next year. It will be like a preseason game. No angle to be had there IMO.

Hamilton/Montreal same. These teams are locked into their playoff positions and will likely face each other in the east final so they're not going to show each other anything. Should be a very vanilla game with both teams just playing it out. Montreal might have some value as a dog here since they would like to upset the top team in the division. Hamilton has no such motivation.

Sask/Edmonton might be bettable but I would have to wait until after the Friday game because depending on that outcome, Sask's motivation could change.
 
1* HAM / MTL under 53.5 -110

Both these teams are locked into their playoff position and both know there is a good chance they will play each other in the eastern final. I don't think either one is going to show the other anything special offensively. IMO it'll be a very vanilla game and while Montreal will be trying to win to gain some confidence by knocking off the leagues best team (by record anyway), the cats won't give a shit. They won't be running a hurry-up offense if down late for example. I don't know where they got this sky-high total (I made it 49.5 before even factoring in the situation) but I think its way off the mark. I did want to wait until I see rosters tomorrow but I see it starting to fall at some outs so I want to get the 53.5 while its still available.
 
Hulu said:
1* HAM / MTL under 53.5 -110

Both these teams are locked into their playoff position and both know there is a good chance they will play each other in the eastern final. I don't think either one is going to show the other anything special offensively. IMO it'll be a very vanilla game and while Montreal will be trying to win to gain some confidence by knocking off the leagues best team (by record anyway), the cats won't give a shit. They won't be running a hurry-up offense if down late for example. I don't know where they got this sky-high total (I made it 49.5 before even factoring in the situation) but I think its way off the mark. I did want to wait until I see rosters tomorrow but I see it starting to fall at some outs so I want to get the 53.5 while its still available.
Click to expand...

Not as excited about this one as I was last night. Sometimes trying to get ahead of the market backfires. I wasn’t expecting Montreal to rest players but they are and 2 are key pieces of their defence. Im not buying off tho as I still think this number is at least 2 points high.
 
1* Saskatchewan +1.5 -110

With Calgary losing, the door is open for Sask to take first place and I don't think they waste this chance.

And holy cow Collaros. I didn't think he'd do anything but he had his best game in a long long time. Winnipeg is suddenly in the playoff conversation.
 
Hulu said:
1* Saskatchewan +1.5 -110

With Calgary losing, the door is open for Sask to take first place and I don't think they waste this chance.

And holy cow Collaros. I didn't think he'd do anything but he had his best game in a long long time. Winnipeg is suddenly in the playoff conversation.
Click to expand...

The +1.5 is gone. Best I see out there now is pk
 
Hulu said:
More or less I just wanted someone to blame it if all goes wrong. I never know when hedging is a good idea in situations like this.

But I still like it. Everything has been heading toward a Calgary vs Hamilton matchup. There is a chance of one or both getting upset of course, but I think now is the time to hit Calgary. In the CFL, the 1st place team in each division has, by far, the easiest path to the cup and it would take a couple of upsets for the stumps not to finish first at this point.

I took just enough to cover my Hamilton and Winnipeg futures. I want to be able to cheer wholeheartedly for my lifelong favourite team to win.
Click to expand...
Good stuff.
 
Results after Week 20

Sides 27-22-2 +0.282*
Totals 19-17 +1.380*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 11-6 +3.010*
Live 6-1 +2.700*

Overall 63-48-2 +6.872*

Advantage over close
Sides: +30.0 pts or 0.59ppb
Totals: +31.5 pts or 0.88ppb

2-2 and -1.25* in week 20. Story of my season...lose the big bets and win the small ones. Hitting over 56% and beating the closing number by this much, I should be up more than this but it is what it is.

Final week of the season, only 9 games left from which to profit.
 
1.5* Saskatchewan -7.5 -110

With last weekend's results, the green riders have taken control of their own destiny and they are not about to let first place slip away, at home, against an Edmonton team with nothing to play for. Jason Maas today said that Trevor Harris will sit this game out and he will rest other starters as well. Logan Kilgore is still not a pro-level starting QB and this is a tough stadium to play in a big game. The home fans will be fired up. In Kilgore's 5 games, the Esks have only managed an avg of 19.2ppg.

Sask needs this win to lock up first place so they won't be resting anyone, at least to start. I doubt they will let up unless they are up big. They won't risk getting backdoor'd out of first place and will be motivated to win by multiple scores.
 
1.5* Teaser Sask -2 / Calgary pk -120

Both these teams have something to play for vs teams that have nothing to play for. I don't see either losing. Could've parlayed which would be a bit safer but at -150 its a bit too expensive for me.
 
B.A.R. said:
Alright, let's finish the regular season strong. Excited for the playoffs, obviously!
Click to expand...

Let's do it man. Now that you're boycotting the NFL, you'll have some free time on Sundays to watch some 3 down playoff football.

Honestly, I'm starting to feel the same. This past weekend wasn't any fun and not just becauyse I lost money. The NFL has become like a chore or a habit rather than something fun anymore.
 
1* Toronto +12.5 -110

With the news that the cats will finally rest some players this week including qb Dane Evans, this “will likely” be a much closer game than the line suggests. The Argos have been putting it together on offense over the latter half of the season and newcomer Chandler Worthy is a stud at WR. MacBeth has continued to throw for big yards while cutting down on the INTs. I think this game stays within 10.
 
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