Hulu's CFL 2019
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#3DownNation
Adding an extra half unit on this at the last -1.5 I could find. Full bet now as follows...
1.5* Hamilton -1.5 -107
Total has risen to 45.5 which makes me like the under even more although it does give me a pause to wonder who is betting the over. This just seems like a dead nuts under play to me.
Hulu
#3DownNation
I can’t blame you. Stamps still are the clear cut better team. I will be hoping for a Stamps 7pt win.
BOL to you too sir.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Its a 1 unit bet split between side and moneyline. So .5* on the +1.5 and .5* on the ML. Although this is technically 2 bets, I note them this way because I really consider it one bet on Montreal, just split between 2 numbers.
The large majority of the time both sides of this fall one way or the other and I record it as 1-0 or 0-1 in my stats. In the case it splits, in this case if Montreal loses by 1, then I record it as 1-1.
Any parlays, teasers or live bets will have the word in the bet for clarity.
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#3DownNation
so its a half unit on +1.5 -110 and a half unit on ML +105.
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#3DownNation
We got the Stamps 7pt win so we both profit. Love it.
And couldn't believe that ending in Edmonton. Shouldn't have even been that close in the end. Kilgore's lack of arm strength will prevent him from becoming a starter in this league.
I am more impressed with Dane Evans every start. He has great arm strength, good mechanics, steps into throws. He needs to grow and cut down the mistakes but that will come with time as he learns to read the defence. As far as I'm concerned, his ceiling is higher than Masoli and I really hope the cats look to lock him up long term.
And couldn't believe that ending in Edmonton. Shouldn't have even been that close in the end. Kilgore's lack of arm strength will prevent him from becoming a starter in this league.
I am more impressed with Dane Evans every start. He has great arm strength, good mechanics, steps into throws. He needs to grow and cut down the mistakes but that will come with time as he learns to read the defence. As far as I'm concerned, his ceiling is higher than Masoli and I really hope the cats look to lock him up long term.
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#3DownNation
Results after Week 15
Sides 20-18-2 -1.702*
Totals 16-12 +2.330*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 9-4 +2.650*
Live 4-1 +1.700*
Overall 49-36-2 +4.478*
Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.59ppb
Totals: +25.5 pts or 0.91ppb
4-1-1 for just shy of 3.5*. 4th straight profitable week.
Can't deny it, I caught a lot of breaks this week but thats part of the game.
Sides 20-18-2 -1.702*
Totals 16-12 +2.330*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 9-4 +2.650*
Live 4-1 +1.700*
Overall 49-36-2 +4.478*
Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.59ppb
Totals: +25.5 pts or 0.91ppb
4-1-1 for just shy of 3.5*. 4th straight profitable week.
Can't deny it, I caught a lot of breaks this week but thats part of the game.
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#3DownNation
Two games with 24pt comebacks in the 2H this weekend. Gotta love the CFL.
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#3DownNation
The way I see it, in about 80% of my bets, randomness plays a bigger role than any capping I do. Over time, you hope the nonsense evens out and helps as many times as it hurts. The remaining 20% is where good capping gives you the edge.
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#3DownNation
Leaning toward buying off this play while I still can. Just want to wait to post-practice today to see if VAJ says anything about an appeal
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#3DownNation
1.5* BC Lions -3 -105
Ok I had one book left that was holding the 3 so I bought off. All others I see either still have the game off the board or have reopened at 3.5.
Here’s my thinking...VAJ could appeal the suspension but based on previous history it’s unlikely to be overturned or reduced to a fine. If it had been 2 games, a reduction to 1 would’ve been a realistic possibility but not here. So then the question becomes is it better to miss this road game vs the 3-10 (but improving) Lions or appeal and very likely miss another, unspecified game later on? I think the best choice would be to take the suspension on a roadie vs a weak team instead of risking it vs a better team that’s out of your control. After this, the ALs have games left vs CAL, @WPG, vs TOR, vs HAM and @ OTT. 3 good teams and 2 weaker ones. So, playing the odds, I think he’s better off taking the suspension now so he is available for the games that really may matter.
If he appeals, I am going to look like a right nitwit but I’ve grown used to that feeling.
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#3DownNation
Yes the bombers mood after that gut punch loss gives me some pause as well. But then I was worried about Harris being pissed off last week and it didn’t count for a whole lot.
This one just strikes me as a heavyweight fight and should be close. 3 points either way.
Also I thought the cats stayed out west for their entire road trip but they flew home after Edmonton so the 3rd road game angle is not as bad as I thought.
BOL to you too man
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#3DownNation
This is a truly tragic story and a reminder of just how dangerous football can be. Hefney was a great linebacker and seemed like an all around good guy who gave back to his community. I remember the game where he went down and even 3 years later he was struggling to function, unable to work and deeply in debt.
ottawacitizen.com
He was just sentenced to 9 years in prison for cocaine trafficking. Sad that he went down that road but I am in no position to judge someone who has been through what he has.
Jonathan Hefney takes another step in recovery from injury that ended his CFL career
Former defensive back has second surgery to enhance function in his right arm, repairing damage from a career-ending injury in October 2015.
He was just sentenced to 9 years in prison for cocaine trafficking. Sad that he went down that road but I am in no position to judge someone who has been through what he has.
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#3DownNation
1* EDM / OTT under 47.5 -108
Finally got a line on this game and I like this under. Ottawa has been averaging less than 20 points per game this season and I don't see how Campbells new scheme of platooning Jennings and Davis is going to help anything. Edmonton's front 8 is easily the best in the league and the Redblacks will have an even tougher time scoring than usual.
On the other side, there is no official word yet but I don't think Trevor Harris will be ready to start so I'm getting ahead of a potential total drop when its announced that Logan Kilgore will start. The Esks offense has had enough trouble this season and Kilgore isn't a starting quality QB in this league, last week's valiant comeback effort notwithstanding.
I made this number 45.5.
Finally got a line on this game and I like this under. Ottawa has been averaging less than 20 points per game this season and I don't see how Campbells new scheme of platooning Jennings and Davis is going to help anything. Edmonton's front 8 is easily the best in the league and the Redblacks will have an even tougher time scoring than usual.
On the other side, there is no official word yet but I don't think Trevor Harris will be ready to start so I'm getting ahead of a potential total drop when its announced that Logan Kilgore will start. The Esks offense has had enough trouble this season and Kilgore isn't a starting quality QB in this league, last week's valiant comeback effort notwithstanding.
I made this number 45.5.
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#3DownNation
Results after Week 16
Sides 22-19-2 -0.777*
Totals 17-13 +2.230*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 9-6 +1.510*
Live 5-1 +2.200*
Overall 53-40-2 +4.662*
Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.57ppb
Totals: +27 pts or 0.9ppb
4-4 for a very small profit this week. Basically break-even. On to week 17.
eta...forgot one play when originally updating. Record is correct now.
Sides 22-19-2 -0.777*
Totals 17-13 +2.230*
Parlay/Tease 0-1 -0.500*
2H bets 9-6 +1.510*
Live 5-1 +2.200*
Overall 53-40-2 +4.662*
Advantage over close
Sides: +23.5 pts or 0.57ppb
Totals: +27 pts or 0.9ppb
4-4 for a very small profit this week. Basically break-even. On to week 17.
eta...forgot one play when originally updating. Record is correct now.
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Hulu
#3DownNation
1.5* CAL/MTL u51.5 -108
A lot tied up in this game but I think I have a pretty good feel for it. My number is 48.5.
1* Hamilton -6 -110
This should be the other side of the 7 and I made it -8.5. Hamilton is rolling and Edmonton only just snapped their losing streak by beating the hapless Redblacks. Edmonton on the 2nd game of an eastern swing and Logan Kilgore still isn't a starting calibre QB.
A lot tied up in this game but I think I have a pretty good feel for it. My number is 48.5.
1* Hamilton -6 -110
This should be the other side of the 7 and I made it -8.5. Hamilton is rolling and Edmonton only just snapped their losing streak by beating the hapless Redblacks. Edmonton on the 2nd game of an eastern swing and Logan Kilgore still isn't a starting calibre QB.
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
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#3DownNation
Good work. I see it’s headed upward which is the wrong direction IMO. Most likely because of Calgary’s stellar record off a bye the past few years but (and I’ve been saying this all year) this is not your fathers Stamps team. They have major issues at receiver and RB. Their OL is good but not dominant as it has been, ditto for the DL.
And Montreal has not had a big HFA over the past few years but with the way this team is playing it’s getting better. They had their biggest crowd in 5 years last game out and it promises to be even bigger this time.
I’m adding. Full bet now as follows...
1*/0.5* Montreal +2/+3 -110/-108
Still may add ML later if the number is good.
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#3DownNation
Lets make it so.
The Hamilton future is looking better and better. The cats gained another game on Montreal this past week so are now all but assured of finishing first in the east, getting the bye and then 1 home game away from the cup.
Calgary is still the most likley opponent in the big game and they are a shadow of their former selves with major injury issues, especially at receiver. These 2 are 1-1 against each other this year but Calgary only won at home on the strength of a blocked FG on the final play. Hamilton outplayed them easily.
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#3DownNation
I like it better when were all aligned but I'll wish you BOL anyway. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the game.
I lean under in BC also. I just have a low degree of confidence in both these teams. I haven't heard who is starting for Toronto this week. Should be Franklin again I would think but who knows at this point. If hes confirmed I would like it more. Beyond that, their defense is just so bad. I keep thinking they will improve but it just never materializes. A capable offense can put up 40 on them on any given night.
I lean under in BC also. I just have a low degree of confidence in both these teams. I haven't heard who is starting for Toronto this week. Should be Franklin again I would think but who knows at this point. If hes confirmed I would like it more. Beyond that, their defense is just so bad. I keep thinking they will improve but it just never materializes. A capable offense can put up 40 on them on any given night.
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#3DownNation
Catching up on some news...
In Hamilton, Tunde Adeleke and Delvin Breaux both back in the lineup making the leagues best secondary 100%. Tyrell Sutton will start at RB. “Oskee wee wee mothafucka!”
Edmonton puts CB Anthony Orange on the 1gm which hurts their already weak secondary. Johnson will move to the boundary side and Tyquan Glass steps in to play the field side. That’s a major downgrade.
Calgary puts MLB and league-leading tackler Cory Greenwood on the 6gm. Already without Wynton Mcmanis, they are thin at LB. Greenwood’s injury also causes a ratio issue which will cause a shuffle on the OL. Depth charts this morning will show us more.
In Hamilton, Tunde Adeleke and Delvin Breaux both back in the lineup making the leagues best secondary 100%. Tyrell Sutton will start at RB. “Oskee wee wee mothafucka!”
Edmonton puts CB Anthony Orange on the 1gm which hurts their already weak secondary. Johnson will move to the boundary side and Tyquan Glass steps in to play the field side. That’s a major downgrade.
Calgary puts MLB and league-leading tackler Cory Greenwood on the 6gm. Already without Wynton Mcmanis, they are thin at LB. Greenwood’s injury also causes a ratio issue which will cause a shuffle on the OL. Depth charts this morning will show us more.
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#3DownNation
Winnipeg is making changes in their secondary after getting torched for 2 straight games. Brandon Alexander returns to CB after a stint on the 6gm. Safety Jeff Hecht is likely to be benched and they have a couple of options to replace him. Anthony Gaitor looks to be nicked so Rios will move from HB to SAM and Nick Taylor will likely find his way into that position.
James Franklin gets the start for Toronto. Like the under 51 there but I just don't have enough confidence in either of these teams, especially the Toronto defense.
James Franklin gets the start for Toronto. Like the under 51 there but I just don't have enough confidence in either of these teams, especially the Toronto defense.
I know you played total later but great call on Hamilton
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#3DownNation
Thanks man. That under shouldve cashed as well if not for the late pick six. Oh well.
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
Thanks for your expertise in this niche, (to me), once again Bro.
If you ever get out to Colorado, pm me...
:moneytoss:
